Christian Oppor

P Birmingham Barons

Age 23 LHP 6'2" / 175 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.5 · 2032

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP48ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	ROKCWS	12	9	38	5.21	3.23	27.1%	16.5%	—	K 18.4% · BB 20.6% · FIP 4.57
2025	21	MIX2 levels	22	22	88	3.08	2.78	31.7%	11.5%	—	K 24.1% · BB 13.3% · FIP 3.96
2026	22	MIX3 levels	23	13	38	12.68	8.47	17.7%	35.9%	—	K 13.8% · BB 37.5% · FIP 7.34
2027PROJ	23	MLBCWS	16	16	90	5.90	5.90	19.1%	20.0%	-1.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	24	MLBCWS	9	9	52	5.53	5.38	20.9%	16.8%	-0.3
2029PROJ67% MLB	25	MLBCWS	16	16	92	5.20	5.03	21.9%	14.8%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$2M2033Arb-3$2M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff56Control43Command45FB velo59

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsNate Savino (age 22) · Adam Laskey (age 23) · Garrett Williams (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129137vR 145

ERA5.90

FIP5.90

K%19.1%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-0.9%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL4045

CMD3045

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$2M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	5	1	8	30	9	2	0	20%	1.5	30.0%	6.7%	23.3%	0.0%	1.17	1.41	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	5	1	8	30	9	2	0	20%	1.5	30.0%	6.7%	23.3%	0.0%	1.17	1.53	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	12	9	38	170	46	28	1	75%	3.2	18.4%	20.6%	-2.2%	0.8%	5.21	4.57	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	12	9	38	170	46	28	1	75%	3.2	18.4%	20.6%	-2.2%	0.8%	5.21	4.57	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	12	9	38	170	46	28	1	75%	3.2	27.1%	16.5%	10.6%	0.6%	5.21	3.23	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	88	366	116	42	6	100%	4.0	24.1%	13.3%	10.9%	2.2%	3.08	3.96	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	88	366	116	42	6	100%	4.0	24.1%	13.3%	10.9%	2.2%	3.08	3.96	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	88	366	116	42	6	100%	4.0	31.7%	11.5%	20.2%	1.6%	3.08	2.78	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	13	38	231	41	83	3	57%	1.7	13.8%	37.5%	-23.7%	1.2%	12.68	7.34	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	13	38	231	41	83	3	57%	1.7	13.8%	37.5%	-23.7%	1.2%	12.68	7.34	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	13	38	231	41	83	3	57%	1.7	17.7%	35.9%	-18.2%	1.3%	12.68	8.47	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	CWS	16	16	90	380	73	76	10	100%	5.6	19.1%	20.0%	-0.9%	2.7%	5.90	5.90	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CWS	21	21	118	499	104	84	14	100%	5.6	20.9%	16.8%	4.0%	2.7%	5.50	5.35	-0.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	CWS	24	24	138	581	127	86	16	100%	5.7	21.9%	14.8%	7.1%	2.7%	5.17	5.00	-0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	CWS	25	25	150	632	142	91	17	100%	6.0	22.5%	14.4%	8.1%	2.8%	5.00	4.91	-0.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	CWS	25	25	148	623	140	89	17	100%	5.9	22.5%	14.3%	8.2%	2.8%	4.95	4.93	-0.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	CWS	24	24	143	604	135	87	18	100%	6.0	22.4%	14.4%	7.9%	2.9%	4.99	5.02	-0.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	CWS	23	23	137	577	128	85	18	100%	5.9	22.1%	14.7%	7.4%	3.1%	5.09	5.15	-0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	CWS	21	21	128	543	118	81	18	100%	6.1	21.8%	15.0%	6.8%	3.3%	5.23	5.33	-0.6
2028	24	MLB CTX	CWS	9	9	52	220	46	37	6	100%	5.8	20.9%	16.8%	4.0%	2.8%	5.53	5.38	-0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	CWS	16	16	92	388	85	57	11	100%	5.8	21.9%	14.8%	7.1%	2.8%	5.20	5.03	-0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	CWS	20	20	119	502	113	72	14	100%	6.0	22.5%	14.4%	8.1%	2.8%	5.03	4.94	-0.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	CWS	21	21	126	532	120	76	15	100%	6.0	22.5%	14.3%	8.2%	2.9%	4.98	4.96	-0.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	CWS	21	21	128	540	121	78	16	100%	6.1	22.4%	14.4%	7.9%	3.0%	5.02	5.05	-0.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	CWS	21	21	124	524	116	77	16	100%	5.9	22.1%	14.7%	7.4%	3.1%	5.12	5.18	-0.4
2034	30	MLB CTX	CWS	20	20	119	502	109	75	17	100%	6.0	21.8%	15.0%	6.8%	3.3%	5.26	5.36	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		128	128	759	3206	709	472	95	100%	5.9	22.1%	14.7%	7.4%	3.0%	5.12	4.73	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	187	124	25	100%	6.0	22.1%	14.7%	7.4%	3.0%	5.12	4.73	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		62	45	172	797	161	172	12	73%	2.8	20.1%	21.6%	-1.5%	1.5%	5.61	4.98	-2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		72	52	200	929	187	201	14	73%	2.8	20.1%	21.6%	-1.5%	1.5%	5.61	4.98	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian Oppor (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.90	19.1%	20.0%	2.7%	—	5.07	21.8%	6.6%	406	-0.83	—	—	—
Nate Savino L 2024 · 5.85 FIP	22	SP	5.85	16.8%	18.8%	3.2%	.244	4.83	14.9%	2.0%	130	-1.02	4.26	176	77
Adam Laskey L 2021 · 6.39 FIP	23	SP-	6.39	16.0%	21.0%	3.6%	.383	3.25	20.1%	10.5%	188	-3.14	3.12	310	75
Garrett Williams L 2018 · 5.04 FIP	23	SW	5.04	14.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.335	4.33	19.3%	4.5%	162	-0.71	3.37	470	75
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	74
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	74
Alex Ayala Jr. L 2023 · 5.99 FIP	21	SP-	5.99	13.6%	16.7%	3.5%	.209	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	128	72
Doug Nikhazy L 2023 · 5.39 FIP	23	SP	5.39	21.9%	16.9%	3.6%	.304	4.71	20.2%	9.3%	258	-0.68	4.12	463	71
Jhordany Mezquita L 2021 · 5.16 FIP	23	SP-	5.16	17.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.321	5.10	22.4%	14.0%	14	-0.06	3.02	223	71
Joel Valdez L 2023 · 5.73 FIP	23	SP-	5.73	17.1%	17.4%	3.4%	.266	3.42	22.0%	10.1%	116	-2.31	2.84	324	70
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	70
Bryce Hubbart L 2024 · 5.45 FIP	23	SP-	5.45	15.5%	13.8%	3.5%	.313	5.14	19.9%	6.3%	82	-0.31	4.79	194	69
Luke Fox L 2024 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	21.8%	19.2%	2.8%	.284	4.16	21.4%	8.1%	125	-1.08	3.60	156	69
Matt Imhof L 2016 · 5.68 FIP	22	SP-	5.68	15.9%	21.3%	2.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	131	69
Doug Davis L 2000 · 5.12 FIP	24	SW	5.12	14.7%	12.2%	3.1%	.302	4.41	13.0%	4.1%	355	-0.71	3.47	1,713	69
Bodi Rascon L 2023 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP	4.92	17.5%	14.5%	2.7%	.264	5.66	11.5%	-8.3%	43	+0.74	4.18	218	68
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	68
Nathan Kirby L 2018 · 5.12 FIP	24	SW	5.12	17.7%	16.2%	2.7%	.318	3.84	25.3%	8.7%	38	-1.28	3.84	145	68
Dominic Scheffler L 2024 · 5.54 FIP	20	SP-	5.54	19.7%	28.4%	0.9%	.348	5.19	16.1%	-4.1%	82	-0.35	4.59	110	68
Julian Smith L 2019 · 4.79 FIP	22	SW	4.79	14.5%	17.4%	1.3%	.399	5.33	17.9%	5.8%	110	+0.54	2.87	189	66
Develson Aria L 2023 · 6.47 FIP	22	SW	6.47	16.7%	28.6%	2.1%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	137	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.3	131	21.8%	15.3%	1.11	5.19
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Emmett O'Neill ('43-'46, -2 WAR*)	1.8	119	19.1%*	15.5%*	0.99*	5.94*
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Kaz Ishii ('05)	2.8	141	17.4%	14.2%	1.12	4.44
Weldon Wyckoff ('13-'18, -2 WAR*)	2.9	143	22.0%*	13.7%*	0.66*	5.43*