Jacob Zibin

P Lake County Captains

Age 22 RHP 6'4" / 218 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.1 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	20	ALynchburg Hil…	19	19	60	3.62	4.06	16.7%	11.8%	—	K 12.4% · BB 13.9% · FIP 4.73
2026	21	MIX2 levels	23	23	100	3.70	3.83	27.5%	9.7%	—	K 20.8% · BB 11.3% · FIP 5.11
2027PROJ	22	MLBCLE	13	13	70	5.65	5.65	16.8%	14.6%	-0.6
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBCLE	8	8	46	5.41	5.34	18.1%	13.3%	-0.2
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBCLE	12	12	67	5.22	5.15	19.0%	12.6%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$0.2M+2

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control35Command25

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 4, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 87%

CompsReid Schaller (age 22) · Ryan Harvey (age 22) · J.P. Massey (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.65

FIP5.65

K%16.8%

BB%14.6%

K-BB%2.1%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$15M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL3535

CMD2525

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2036	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	20	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	19	19	60	263	44	31	4	100%	3.1	12.4%	13.9%	-1.5%	1.7%	3.62	4.73	—
2025	20	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	19	19	60	263	44	31	4	100%	3.1	12.4%	13.9%	-1.5%	1.7%	3.62	4.73	—
2025	20	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	19	19	60	263	44	31	4	100%	3.1	16.7%	11.8%	4.9%	1.5%	3.62	4.06	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	100	422	116	41	14	100%	4.3	20.8%	11.3%	9.4%	4.2%	3.70	5.11	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	100	422	116	41	14	100%	4.3	20.8%	11.3%	9.4%	4.2%	3.70	5.11	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	100	422	116	41	14	100%	4.3	27.5%	9.7%	17.8%	3.3%	3.70	3.83	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	CLE	13	13	70	296	50	43	9	100%	5.4	16.8%	14.6%	2.1%	3.2%	5.65	5.65	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	CLE	17	17	93	393	71	52	12	100%	5.5	18.1%	13.3%	4.8%	3.1%	5.41	5.34	-0.5
2029	24	MLB MLE	CLE	17	17	95	403	76	51	12	100%	5.6	19.0%	12.6%	6.4%	3.1%	5.22	5.15	-0.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	CLE	17	17	97	408	80	50	12	100%	5.7	19.5%	12.2%	7.4%	3.0%	5.10	5.04	-0.2
2031	26	MLB MLE	CLE	16	16	97	408	81	49	12	100%	6.0	19.8%	12.0%	7.8%	3.0%	5.03	5.00	-0.1
2032	27	MLB MLE	CLE	16	16	95	402	79	49	12	100%	6.0	19.8%	12.1%	7.7%	3.1%	5.04	5.04	-0.2
2033	28	MLB MLE	CLE	15	15	92	390	77	48	12	100%	6.2	19.6%	12.2%	7.4%	3.2%	5.09	5.13	-0.2
2034	29	MLB MLE	CLE	15	15	88	372	72	46	12	100%	5.9	19.4%	12.5%	6.9%	3.3%	5.19	5.26	-0.4
2035	30	MLB MLE	CLE	14	14	83	350	67	45	12	100%	5.9	19.1%	12.8%	6.3%	3.5%	5.34	5.43	-0.5
2028	23	MLB CTX	CLE	8	8	46	194	35	26	6	100%	5.8	18.1%	13.3%	4.8%	3.1%	5.41	5.34	-0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	CLE	12	12	67	283	54	36	9	100%	5.6	19.0%	12.6%	6.4%	3.1%	5.22	5.15	-0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	CLE	13	13	78	329	64	40	10	100%	6.0	19.5%	12.2%	7.4%	3.0%	5.10	5.04	-0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	CLE	14	14	84	355	70	43	11	100%	6.0	19.8%	12.0%	7.8%	3.0%	5.03	5.00	-0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	CLE	14	14	86	363	72	44	11	100%	6.1	19.8%	12.1%	7.7%	3.1%	5.04	5.04	-0.1
2033	28	MLB CTX	CLE	14	14	85	359	70	44	11	100%	6.1	19.6%	12.2%	7.4%	3.2%	5.09	5.13	-0.2
2034	29	MLB CTX	CLE	14	14	82	346	67	43	12	100%	5.9	19.4%	12.5%	6.9%	3.3%	5.19	5.26	-0.3
2035	30	MLB CTX	CLE	13	13	78	329	63	42	12	100%	6.0	19.1%	12.8%	6.3%	3.5%	5.34	5.43	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		103	103	606	2559	496	317	81	100%	5.9	19.4%	12.4%	7.0%	3.2%	5.16	4.78	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	164	105	27	100%	5.9	19.4%	12.4%	7.0%	3.2%	5.16	4.78	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		42	42	159	685	120	84	22	100%	3.8	17.5%	12.3%	5.2%	3.3%	3.67	4.96	-2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	53	200	860	151	106	28	100%	3.8	17.5%	12.3%	5.2%	3.3%	3.67	4.96	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Zibin (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.65	16.8%	14.6%	3.2%	—	5.17	18.9%	6.2%	285	-0.48	—	—	—
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	89
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	88
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	88
Chad Dallas R 2022 · 5.87 FIP	22	SP	5.87	16.4%	14.5%	4.2%	.282	4.70	20.0%	10.3%	184	-1.17	3.53	358	87
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.38	205	87
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	87
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	3.91	23.8%	12.0%	201	-1.65	3.54	273	87
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	86
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.7%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	86
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	86
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	85
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.59	25.5%	10.9%	108	-0.58	4.20	203	84
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	84
Hunter Parks R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP	5.15	18.9%	19.3%	2.2%	.265	4.95	20.8%	4.6%	139	-0.20	4.42	301	84
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	83
Michael YaSenka R 2021 · 5.98 FIP	23	SP	5.98	18.1%	15.0%	4.6%	.288	5.95	18.8%	6.1%	58	-0.03	5.95	154	83
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.90	22.5%	6.9%	260	-0.04	4.14	414	83
Garrett Cave R 2018 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP	4.99	16.4%	14.9%	2.5%	.301	4.97	17.8%	-8.8%	40	-0.02	4.97	156	83
Jordan Sheffield R 2017 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP	5.07	16.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.320	5.60	22.6%	4.7%	89	+0.53	3.90	248	82
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	90	19.1%	12.6%	1.23	5.21
Jake Wade ('36-'46, -1 WAR*)	3.3	84	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.08*	5.03*
Frank Bertaina ('64-'70, -1 WAR*)	2.1	69	19.0%*	11.8%*	1.24*	5.03*
Paul Abbott ('04)	3.6	80	15.6%	12.3%	1.26	4.92
Blake Stein ('02)	2.4	95	17.4%	13.2%	1.48	5.41
Charlie Puleo ('81-'89, 1 WAR*)	3.2	90	18.5%*	11.5%*	1.22*	4.73*
Mac Suzuki ('02)	2.3	93	15.4%	12.5%	1.29	5.72