Jorge Alvarez prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Jorge Alvarez P DSL Cubs Blue

Age 19 RHP 5'9" / 187 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 10 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.35

FIP4.35

K%22.8%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%13.6%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	6	2	18	82	23	6	0	33%	2.9	19.1%	9.1%	9.9%	0.0%	6.11	2.65	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	6	2	18	82	23	6	0	33%	2.9	19.1%	9.1%	9.9%	0.0%	6.11	2.65	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Blue	6	2	18	82	23	6	0	33%	2.9	28.0%	7.3%	20.7%	0.0%	6.11	1.52	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	19	MLB	CHC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.8%	9.2%	13.6%	3.0%	4.35	4.35	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	CHC	19	0	20	84	20	7	2	0%	1.1	23.2%	8.9%	14.4%	2.9%	4.28	4.24	+0.1
2027	20	MLB CTX	CHC	10	0	10	42	10	4	1	0%	1.0	23.2%	8.9%	14.4%	2.9%	4.28	4.24	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	10	4	1	0%	1.1	23.2%	8.9%	14.4%	2.9%	4.28	3.86	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	81	20	0%	1.1	23.2%	8.9%	14.4%	2.9%	4.28	3.86	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		6	2	18	82	16	8	0	33%	2.9	19.1%	9.1%	9.9%	0.0%	6.11	2.65	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	23	200	928	177	85	0	33%	2.9	19.1%	9.1%	9.9%	0.0%	6.11	2.65	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jorge Alvarez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.35	22.8%	9.2%	3.0%	—	4.24	23.2%	14.4%	20	-0.11	—	—	—
Layonel Ovalles R 2022 · 3.57 FIP	19	SW	3.57	23.1%	10.2%	2.1%	.333	4.62	17.4%	3.0%	146	+1.05	2.60	227	82
Jerming Rosario R 2021 · 4.97 FIP	19	SW	4.97	21.1%	10.5%	4.2%	.303	4.43	20.9%	5.7%	281	-0.54	3.05	507	81
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	81
Dawil Almonte R 2022 · 3.59 FIP	20	SW	3.59	17.4%	7.8%	1.8%	.271	4.54	14.7%	3.3%	97	+0.95	3.59	138	79
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	78
Simon Mathews R 2017 · 4.09 FIP	21	SW	4.09	17.7%	7.5%	2.8%	.326	4.42	16.0%	5.9%	167	+0.33	4.09	215	78
Sean Paul Liñan R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	18	SP-	4.05	17.7%	8.3%	2.5%	.324	4.30	22.1%	10.2%	210	+0.25	3.29	272	78
Ricardo Brizuela R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	19	SW	4.03	20.1%	11.6%	2.1%	.375	4.39	16.0%	7.1%	208	+0.36	3.20	246	78
Jose Romero R 2023 · 3.24 FIP	19	SW	3.24	21.7%	5.2%	2.4%	.267	4.37	13.6%	5.6%	193	+1.13	3.24	235	77
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	77
Engel Daniel Peralta R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	19	SW	4.44	25.6%	9.2%	4.2%	.408	5.55	17.2%	2.0%	74	+1.11	3.34	129	77
Carson Rudd R 2021 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP-	3.39	25.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.351	5.24	21.6%	5.6%	193	+1.85	3.39	242	77
Cole Stapler R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	22	SW	3.83	19.2%	6.0%	2.9%	.266	3.31	18.1%	13.2%	220	-0.52	3.26	255	77
Redinson Gomez R 2023 · 3.21 FIP	19	SW	3.21	18.4%	6.2%	1.6%	.273	4.33	17.9%	2.8%	39	+1.12	3.21	157	76
Huei-Sheng Lin R 2019 · 4.59 FIP	20	SW	4.59	17.4%	7.4%	3.7%	.360	5.64	16.1%	3.7%	88	+1.05	4.59	120	76
Daniel Bies R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	22	SW	3.96	24.5%	6.8%	3.8%	.339	3.17	20.3%	11.0%	89	-0.79	3.17	115	76
Alexander Cornielle R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	19	SW	4.01	24.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.329	4.37	19.2%	7.6%	312	+0.36	3.88	555	76
Domingo Pena R 2017 · 4.99 FIP	19	SP-	4.99	20.4%	8.3%	4.7%	.250	5.87	11.9%	2.8%	43	+0.88	3.34	165	76
Liam Simon R 2023 · 3.27 FIP	22	SW	3.27	26.6%	11.9%	1.6%	.362	5.97	19.7%	-6.0%	84	+2.70	3.27	105	76
Saul Teran R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	20	SW	4.81	17.5%	9.8%	3.5%	.333	3.88	20.8%	8.7%	94	-0.93	2.28	166	76