Jose Romero

P Inland Empire 66ers

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 160 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.9 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#792ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	ROKSEA	12	5	36	4.25	2.66	21.8%	8.8%	—	K 14.8% · BB 11.0% · FIP 3.77
2025	21	MIX2 levels	14	9	57	4.29	3.44	18.8%	8.2%	—	K 12.9% · BB 8.3% · FIP 4.59
2026	22	ASEA	23	23	106	5.16	3.58	18.4%	5.9%	—	K 13.6% · BB 6.9% · FIP 4.47
2027PROJ	23	MLBSEA	—	—	0	5.22	5.22	11.9%	8.7%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBSEA	6	6	32	4.98	4.91	14.4%	8.4%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBSEA	8	8	45	4.83	4.76	15.9%	8.2%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control50Command35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 1.8, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsGarrett Burhenn (age 23) · Braden Olthoff (age 23) · Bradley Brehmer (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.22

FIP5.22

K%11.9%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%3.2%

Proj IP74

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 74 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5050

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2036	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	12	4	42	169	54	7	3	33%	3.5	21.7%	5.2%	16.6%	2.4%	2.76	3.24	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	12	4	42	169	54	7	3	33%	3.5	32.0%	4.1%	27.8%	1.8%	2.76	1.97	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	12	5	36	170	37	15	1	42%	3.0	14.8%	11.0%	3.8%	1.0%	4.25	3.77	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	12	5	36	170	37	15	1	42%	3.0	14.8%	11.0%	3.8%	1.0%	4.25	3.77	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	12	5	36	170	37	15	1	42%	3.0	21.8%	8.8%	12.9%	0.6%	4.25	2.66	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	9	57	255	48	21	4	64%	4.0	12.9%	8.3%	4.6%	2.8%	4.29	4.59	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	9	57	255	48	21	4	64%	4.0	12.9%	8.3%	4.6%	2.8%	4.29	4.59	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	9	57	255	48	21	4	64%	4.0	18.8%	8.2%	10.6%	1.6%	4.29	3.44	—
2026	22	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	23	23	106	478	88	28	11	100%	4.6	13.6%	6.9%	6.7%	3.0%	5.16	4.47	—
2026	22	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	23	23	106	478	88	28	11	100%	4.6	13.6%	6.9%	6.7%	3.0%	5.16	4.47	—
2026	22	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	23	23	106	478	88	28	11	100%	4.6	18.4%	5.9%	12.6%	2.3%	5.16	3.58	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	11.9%	8.7%	3.2%	3.0%	5.22	5.22	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	SEA	13	13	75	315	45	26	9	100%	5.7	14.4%	8.4%	6.0%	3.0%	5.02	4.95	+0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	SEA	11	11	67	284	45	23	8	100%	6.1	15.9%	8.2%	7.6%	2.9%	4.87	4.80	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	SEA	11	11	66	277	46	23	8	100%	6.0	16.7%	8.2%	8.5%	2.9%	4.77	4.72	+0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	SEA	11	11	64	268	45	22	8	100%	5.8	16.8%	8.2%	8.6%	3.0%	4.75	4.75	+0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	SEA	10	10	60	255	42	21	8	100%	6.0	16.7%	8.4%	8.3%	3.1%	4.80	4.83	+0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	SEA	9	9	56	236	39	20	8	100%	6.2	16.4%	8.6%	7.9%	3.2%	4.90	4.96	+0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	SEA	8	8	51	215	35	19	7	100%	6.4	16.1%	8.9%	7.2%	3.4%	5.04	5.14	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	SEA	6	6	32	135	19	11	4	100%	5.3	14.4%	8.4%	6.0%	2.9%	4.98	4.91	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	SEA	8	8	45	190	30	16	5	100%	5.6	15.9%	8.2%	7.6%	2.9%	4.83	4.76	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	SEA	9	9	52	220	37	18	6	100%	5.8	16.7%	8.2%	8.5%	2.9%	4.73	4.68	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	SEA	9	9	54	228	38	19	7	100%	6.0	16.8%	8.2%	8.6%	2.9%	4.71	4.71	+0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	SEA	9	9	54	228	38	19	7	100%	6.0	16.7%	8.4%	8.3%	3.0%	4.76	4.79	+0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	SEA	8	8	51	215	35	18	7	100%	6.4	16.4%	8.6%	7.9%	3.2%	4.86	4.92	+0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	SEA	8	8	47	198	32	18	7	100%	5.9	16.1%	8.9%	7.2%	3.4%	4.99	5.09	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	56	334	1411	229	119	43	100%	6.0	16.3%	8.4%	7.9%	3.0%	4.82	4.45	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	137	71	26	100%	5.9	16.3%	8.4%	7.9%	3.0%	4.82	4.45	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		61	41	241	1072	160	82	27	67%	4.0	14.9%	7.6%	7.3%	2.5%	4.40	4.19	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	34	200	888	132	68	22	67%	4.0	14.9%	7.6%	7.3%	2.5%	4.40	4.19	+1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AInland Empire 66ers · 106 IPFIP 3.55 → 4.47 (+0.92)K% 18.4% → 13.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.41%	—	×0.740	13.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.86%	—	×1.180	6.91%
HR / BF /BF	2.30%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.99%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.55 → 4.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Mariners · 51 IPFIP 3.30 → 4.59 (+1.28)K% 18.9% → 12.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.94%	—	×0.680	12.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.61%	—	×1.250	8.26%
HR / BF /BF	1.76%	÷0.886	×1.400	2.79%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 77).

Result: FIP 3.30 → 4.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AModesto Nuts · 6 IPFIP 4.31 → 5.19 (+0.88)K% 17.9% → 13.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.86%	—	×0.740	13.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	21.43%	—	×1.180	25.29%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.759	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 4.31 → 5.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Mariners · 36 IPFIP 2.70 → 3.77 (+1.07)K% 21.8% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.76%	—	×0.680	14.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.82%	—	×1.250	11.03%
HR / BF /BF	0.59%	÷0.863	×1.400	0.95%

Result: FIP 2.70 → 3.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Mariners · 42 IPFIP 1.90 → 3.24 (+1.34)K% 32.0% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.95%	—	×0.680	21.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.14%	—	×1.250	5.18%
HR / BF /BF	1.78%	÷1.034	×1.400	2.40%

Result: FIP 1.90 → 3.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Romero (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.22	11.9%	8.7%	3.0%	—	4.83	15.6%	7.3%	208	-0.39	—	—	—
Garrett Burhenn R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	13.5%	8.4%	2.5%	.312	4.36	18.1%	10.2%	247	-0.03	4.30	433	89
Braden Olthoff R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	12.5%	8.0%	2.6%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	108	86
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	85
Justin Dillon R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	24	SP-	5.26	11.8%	8.8%	3.7%	.265	4.34	15.6%	9.1%	124	-0.92	3.65	239	85
Grahamm Wiest R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	23	SP-	5.13	11.1%	7.8%	3.6%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	120	84
Trenton Toplikar R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	14.8%	10.1%	2.2%	.248	5.39	16.5%	6.4%	123	+1.07	4.32	232	83
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2021 · 4.98 FIP	23	SP-	4.98	12.7%	9.1%	3.3%	.348	3.92	16.5%	8.0%	135	-1.06	3.30	218	83
Sergio Mitre R 2004 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	15.2%	7.8%	2.5%	.357	4.16	13.2%	6.5%	250	+0.00	3.55	602	83
Nick Belzer R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	14.5%	9.1%	2.2%	.291	4.51	12.8%	4.2%	63	+0.28	4.23	112	82
Cesar Gomez R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	14.0%	9.0%	1.9%	.364	4.88	16.1%	7.0%	196	+0.77	4.11	345	82
Casey Coleman R 2010 · 4.05 FIP	23	SP-	4.05	10.9%	9.3%	1.3%	.272	4.61	17.6%	6.9%	109	+0.56	2.95	484	82
Jeff Brigham R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	23	SP	4.78	14.5%	11.3%	2.7%	.327	3.80	17.8%	8.5%	288	-0.98	3.48	620	82
Brooks Hall R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.00	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.12	3.45	274	82
Conor Fisk R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	23	SP-	4.77	11.2%	6.7%	3.2%	.282	4.20	15.2%	8.4%	352	-0.57	3.38	523	82
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	82
Mike Thompson R 2006 · 4.95 FIP	25	SP	4.95	8.6%	6.4%	3.2%	.272	4.85	6.7%	0.0%	16	-0.10	4.85	108	81
Billy Buckner R 2007 · 5.43 FIP	23	SP-	5.43	11.9%	11.2%	3.5%	.305	4.73	18.3%	10.4%	104	-0.70	3.73	252	81
Matt Wise R 2000 · 5.35 FIP	24	SP-	5.35	12.3%	7.4%	4.3%	.266	4.98	23.7%	15.6%	49	-0.37	3.33	302	81
Aaron Cook R 2002 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP-	4.83	9.1%	8.4%	2.6%	.301	4.27	7.8%	0.7%	304	-0.56	3.65	1,406	81
Michael Matuella R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	13.5%	8.2%	2.3%	.342	4.66	16.5%	3.4%	94	+0.38	3.60	169	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	64	15.5%	8.4%	1.18	4.93
Matt Whiteside ('05)	2.0	58	14.5%	8.8%	1.15	5.23
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Lance Painter ('03)	2.2	56	16.7%	9.0%	1.32	5.24
Dave Tomlin ('72-'86, -2 WAR*)	2.6	64	18.0%*	8.6%*	0.87*	4.57*
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*
Rich Rodriguez ('90-'03, 3 WAR*)	3.2	64	17.3%*	9.3%*	1.05*	4.00*