Jose Romero
P
Inland Empire 66ers
+0.1
WAR
Age 22
RHP
6'1" / 160 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.5 · 2029
ERA4.42
FIP4.42
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.7%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%12.6%
IP45
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2029
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Mariners | 12 | 4 | 42 | 169 | 54 | 7 | 3 | 21.7% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 2.76 | 3.20 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | ACL Mariners | 12 | 5 | 36 | 170 | 37 | 15 | 1 | 14.8% | 11.0% | 1.1% | 4.25 | 3.83 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Modesto Nuts | 14 | 9 | 57 | 255 | 48 | 21 | 4 | 12.9% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.70 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | 2 | 2 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 3 | 2 | — | — | — | 7.50 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | SEA | 45 | — | 45 | 192 | 42 | 17 | 6 | 21.7% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 51 | 224 | 48 | 20 | 8 | 21.3% | 9.1% | 3.4% | 4.78 | 3.90 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | SEA | 47 | — | 47 | 199 | 45 | 17 | 6 | 22.6% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | SEA | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 47 | 17 | 6 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.18 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | SEA | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 49 | 17 | 6 | 23.6% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.13 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 49 | 17 | 6 | 23.8% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.11 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 48 | — | 48 | 205 | 49 | 17 | 6 | 23.8% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 4.12 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 48 | 17 | 6 | 23.8% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.15 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 47 | 17 | 6 | 23.6% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.17 | 4.19 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 45 | 16 | 6 | 23.4% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 4.26 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 43 | 16 | 6 | 23.2% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.29 | 4.33 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 42 | — | 42 | 177 | 41 | 16 | 6 | 22.9% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.37 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 38 | 15 | 6 | 22.6% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 4.46 | 4.51 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 38 | — | 38 | 161 | 36 | 15 | 5 | 22.3% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 4.56 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | SEA | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 33 | 14 | 5 | 21.9% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 4.67 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 40 | 20 | 141 | 626 | 101 | 52 | 15 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 3.96 | 4.13 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 28 | 200 | 888 | 143 | 74 | 21 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 3.96 | 4.13 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jose Romero (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 21.7% | 9.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.19 | 23.1% | 14.6% | 144 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Heath Holder R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 92 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2027 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.48 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.10 | 4.15 | 338 | 92 |
| Chad Patrick R 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.82 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 4.23 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.41 | 3.72 | 483 | 91 |
| Reece Karalus R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.79 | 18.5% | 8.6% | 4.0% | .298 | 4.79 | 14.8% | 4.1% | 103 | -0.00 | 4.73 | 149 | 90 |
| Jordan Mikel R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.49 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 2.8% | .330 | 4.17 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 109 | -0.32 | 3.05 | 195 | 90 |
| Kyle Zurak R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.42 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.54 | 3.19 | 181 | 90 |
| Jayson McKinley R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.39 | 17.5% | 11.4% | 2.4% | .308 | 3.59 | 20.4% | 11.3% | 134 | -0.80 | 2.36 | 173 | 90 |
| Owen Holt R 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.81 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .258 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.72 | 3.81 | 145 | 90 |
| Matt Pidich R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.42 | 17.1% | 8.3% | 3.1% | .303 | 4.09 | 20.8% | 13.3% | 115 | -0.33 | 4.07 | 196 | 89 |
| Brandon Beckel R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.74 | 19.4% | 10.3% | 1.8% | .250 | 4.34 | 17.1% | 7.3% | 76 | +0.60 | 3.74 | 123 | 89 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.20 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.95 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.75 | 4.20 | 104 | 89 |
| Chad Donato R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.89 | 439 | 89 |
| Dawil Almonte R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.89 | 17.9% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .267 | 4.30 | 12.6% | 0.7% | 58 | -0.59 | 3.60 | 138 | 89 |
| Mike Morrison R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.86 | 17.3% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .280 | 4.00 | 19.0% | 7.1% | 128 | -0.86 | 3.32 | 145 | 89 |
| Scott Williams R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.66 | 20.2% | 10.6% | 3.5% | .256 | 2.89 | 18.5% | 11.2% | 42 | -1.77 | 2.89 | 119 | 89 |
| Jose Geraldo R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.81 | 18.9% | 9.9% | 1.9% | .337 | 4.46 | 19.0% | 9.9% | 49 | +0.65 | 3.13 | 107 | 88 |
| Todd Peterson R 2027 · 5.15 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.15 | 18.4% | 10.3% | 4.2% | .279 | 4.82 | 15.0% | 4.3% | 124 | -0.33 | 4.45 | 175 | 88 |
| Juan Mercedes R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.61 | 18.4% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .333 | 6.13 | 11.2% | -11.1% | 12 | +1.52 | 4.33 | 116 | 88 |
| Jared Ruxer R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 17.3% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .333 | 4.25 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 240 | +0.09 | 3.41 | 270 | 88 |
| Anyelo Leclerc R 2027 · 5.01 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.01 | 16.2% | 9.8% | 3.7% | .326 | 4.55 | 15.9% | 6.1% | 96 | -0.46 | 4.55 | 140 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.4 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $10M | +$6M | ||