Jose Romero — OGILVIE

Jose Romero P Inland Empire 66ers

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 160 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.6 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 116

ERA5.23

FIP5.23

K%13.5%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%3.4%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5050

CMD3535

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	12	4	42	169	54	7	3	33%	3.5	21.7%	5.2%	16.6%	2.4%	2.76	3.24	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	12	4	42	169	54	7	3	33%	3.5	21.7%	5.2%	16.6%	2.4%	2.76	3.24	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	12	4	42	169	54	7	3	33%	3.5	32.0%	4.1%	27.8%	1.8%	2.76	1.97	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	12	5	36	170	37	15	1	42%	3.0	14.8%	11.0%	3.8%	1.0%	4.25	3.77	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	12	5	36	170	37	15	1	42%	3.0	14.8%	11.0%	3.8%	1.0%	4.25	3.77	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	12	5	36	170	37	15	1	42%	3.0	21.8%	8.8%	12.9%	0.6%	4.25	2.66	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	9	57	255	48	21	4	64%	4.0	12.9%	8.3%	4.6%	2.8%	4.29	4.59	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	9	57	255	48	21	4	64%	4.0	12.9%	8.3%	4.6%	2.8%	4.29	4.59	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	9	57	255	48	21	4	64%	4.0	18.8%	8.2%	10.6%	1.6%	4.29	3.44	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	23	23	106	478	88	28	11	100%	4.6	13.6%	6.9%	6.7%	3.0%	5.16	4.47	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	23	23	106	478	88	28	11	100%	4.6	13.6%	6.9%	6.7%	3.0%	5.16	4.47	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	SEA	23	23	106	478	88	28	11	100%	4.6	18.4%	5.9%	12.6%	2.3%	5.16	3.55	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	SEA	20	20	108	456	72	43	13	100%	5.4	15.7%	9.5%	6.2%	2.9%	5.03	4.95	-0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	SEA	20	20	111	467	80	43	13	100%	5.5	17.1%	9.2%	7.9%	2.9%	4.86	4.78	+0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	SEA	19	19	112	473	84	42	14	100%	5.9	17.8%	9.0%	8.8%	2.9%	4.75	4.69	+0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	SEA	19	19	112	473	86	42	14	100%	5.9	18.1%	8.9%	9.2%	2.9%	4.69	4.65	+0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	SEA	18	18	110	466	84	42	14	100%	6.1	18.1%	9.0%	9.1%	2.9%	4.69	4.69	+0.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	SEA	18	18	107	452	81	41	14	100%	5.9	18.0%	9.1%	8.9%	3.0%	4.74	4.77	+0.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	SEA	17	17	102	432	77	40	14	100%	6.0	17.8%	9.3%	8.4%	3.2%	4.84	4.91	-0.0
2034	30	MLB MLE	SEA	16	16	96	406	71	39	14	100%	6.0	17.4%	9.7%	7.7%	3.4%	4.99	5.08	-0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	SEA	10	10	53	224	35	21	6	100%	5.3	15.7%	9.5%	6.2%	2.8%	4.99	4.91	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	SEA	14	14	77	325	55	30	9	100%	5.5	17.1%	9.2%	7.9%	2.8%	4.82	4.74	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	SEA	16	16	91	384	68	34	11	100%	5.7	17.8%	9.0%	8.8%	2.8%	4.71	4.65	+0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	SEA	16	16	98	414	75	37	12	100%	6.1	18.1%	8.9%	9.2%	2.8%	4.65	4.61	+0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	SEA	17	17	100	422	76	38	12	100%	5.9	18.1%	9.0%	9.1%	2.8%	4.65	4.65	+0.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	SEA	16	16	99	418	75	38	12	100%	6.2	18.0%	9.1%	8.9%	2.9%	4.70	4.73	+0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	SEA	16	16	95	401	71	38	12	100%	5.9	17.8%	9.3%	8.4%	3.1%	4.80	4.87	-0.0
2034	30	MLB CTX	SEA	15	15	90	380	66	37	12	100%	6.0	17.4%	9.7%	7.7%	3.3%	4.94	5.03	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		119	119	703	2967	523	273	87	100%	5.9	17.6%	9.2%	8.4%	2.9%	4.77	4.38	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	149	78	25	100%	5.9	17.6%	9.2%	8.4%	2.9%	4.77	4.38	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		61	41	241	1072	160	82	27	67%	4.0	14.9%	7.6%	7.3%	2.5%	4.40	4.19	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	34	200	888	132	68	22	67%	4.0	14.9%	7.6%	7.3%	2.5%	4.40	4.19	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Romero (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.23	13.5%	10.1%	2.9%	—	4.81	16.9%	7.6%	331	-0.42	—	—	—
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	88
Jeremiah Burke R 2019 · 4.88 FIP	21	SP-	4.88	11.9%	9.3%	2.9%	.330	3.78	15.7%	8.1%	34	-1.10	3.78	137	88
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	86
Alex Romero R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	22	SP-	4.38	10.6%	8.9%	1.9%	.314	4.68	13.8%	6.0%	168	+0.30	4.38	235	85
Jordan Geber R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	23	SP-	5.03	15.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.341	4.39	15.4%	7.7%	176	-0.64	4.26	241	85
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	84
Nick Belzer R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	14.5%	9.1%	2.2%	.291	4.51	12.8%	4.2%	63	+0.28	4.23	112	84
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.14	275	83
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.45	19.3%	8.7%	150	-0.96	3.60	209	83
Nick Krauth R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	22	SP-	4.64	14.4%	8.9%	3.0%	.297	4.74	12.5%	2.5%	232	+0.10	4.50	424	82
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	82
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	81
Yoan López R 2015 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP	4.83	12.6%	12.9%	2.1%	.290	4.00	22.8%	12.1%	154	-0.83	2.21	377	81
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	81
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	81
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	81
Wellington Caceres R 2018 · 5.73 FIP	22	SP-	5.73	12.0%	11.4%	4.0%	.366	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	121	81
Gerardo Salas R 2023 · 5.00 FIP	20	SP	5.00	14.0%	10.5%	3.2%	.307	4.94	17.5%	8.9%	273	-0.06	3.44	397	80
Dillon Tate R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP-	4.55	14.0%	10.6%	2.4%	.358	4.09	15.7%	8.6%	261	-0.46	3.02	627	80
Archie Bradley R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	16.0%	10.4%	2.4%	.315	3.25	24.6%	16.2%	327	-1.15	2.23	570	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	101	17.3%	9.2%	1.16	4.84
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98