Alvaro Pineda — OGILVIE

Alvaro Pineda P DSL Royals Fortuna

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 170 lbs ROK peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%19.8%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%8.7%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL KC Stewart	11	6	25	114	14	5	2	55%	2.3	8.4%	5.5%	2.9%	2.1%	6.39	4.25	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL KC Stewart	11	6	25	114	14	5	2	55%	2.3	12.3%	4.4%	7.9%	1.8%	6.39	3.61	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Blue	11	6	32	146	26	11	3	55%	2.9	12.1%	9.4%	2.7%	3.2%	5.01	5.02	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Blue	11	6	32	146	26	11	3	55%	2.9	12.1%	9.4%	2.7%	3.2%	5.01	5.02	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Blue	11	6	32	146	26	11	3	55%	2.9	17.8%	7.5%	10.3%	2.1%	5.01	3.72	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	12	9	39	169	28	17	1	75%	3.3	11.3%	12.6%	-1.3%	0.6%	4.35	4.09	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	12	9	39	169	28	17	1	75%	3.3	11.3%	12.6%	-1.3%	0.6%	4.35	4.09	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Fortuna	12	9	39	169	28	17	1	75%	3.3	16.6%	10.1%	6.5%	0.6%	4.35	3.30	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	22	MLB	KC	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	19.8%	11.1%	8.7%	2.9%	4.83	4.83	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	KC	7	7	37	155	33	16	5	100%	5.2	21.0%	10.1%	10.9%	2.9%	4.66	4.58	+0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	KC	3	3	18	76	16	8	2	100%	6.0	21.0%	10.1%	10.9%	2.9%	4.66	4.58	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	18	76	16	8	2	100%	6.0	21.0%	10.1%	10.9%	2.9%	4.66	4.20	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	37	200	844	177	89	22	100%	5.3	21.0%	10.1%	10.9%	2.9%	4.66	4.20	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		34	21	97	429	46	41	8	62%	2.9	10.8%	9.6%	1.2%	1.9%	5.10	4.45	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	43	200	885	95	85	17	62%	2.9	10.8%	9.6%	1.2%	1.9%	5.10	4.45	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alvaro Pineda (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	19.8%	11.1%	2.9%	—	4.58	21.0%	10.9%	37	-0.25	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	85
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	85
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	83
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	82
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	82
Michael Cederoth R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	16.8%	13.0%	1.4%	.292	4.95	21.6%	2.4%	83	+0.85	4.10	118	81
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	81
Jared Ruxer R 2015 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	17.3%	10.6%	2.1%	.333	4.29	14.9%	7.5%	240	+0.13	3.39	270	80
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	80
Mac Sceroler R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	17.6%	11.8%	2.5%	.318	4.34	18.4%	10.3%	200	-0.12	3.95	275	80
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	80
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	79
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	79
Trent Fennell R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	14.5%	12.5%	1.9%	.317	4.46	20.9%	7.5%	89	-0.02	4.08	163	79
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	79
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	79
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	79
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	78
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	78
Jose Gonzalez R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	21	SP-	4.11	16.0%	10.4%	1.9%	.318	3.51	21.0%	14.0%	293	-0.60	2.47	369	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	20.6%	10.5%	1.13	4.72
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64