Luis De León P Chesapeake Baysox
Age 23 LHP 6'3" / 168 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.0 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION70 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102111vR 120
ERA4.46
FIP4.46
K%22.8%
BB%13.5%
K-BB%9.3%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 135 IP
K: +2.6 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+3KBB: -6.0 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-6BBCONTACT: -4.1 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-4CONTACTSTAM: +18.3 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+18STAMTotal WAR: +1.14 (135 IP)+1.1WAR
0.00.51.00.00.30.40.40.3+$5M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
OFP45
STUF5555
CTRL3045
CMD3040
K†5555
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2027
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2032
First FA Year   2033
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.3$1M+$0.4M
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.4$1M+$0.7M
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.4$1M+$0.7M
2030Arb-1$4M+0.3$0.9M+$0.0M (cut)
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $2M $5M +$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202219ROKDSL BAL Black105281184513050%2.825.9%13.8%12.2%0.0%5.142.65
202219ROKDSL BAL Black105281184513050%2.838.1%11.0%27.1%0.0%5.141.28
202320MIX2 levels1511542306730073%3.620.6%15.8%4.8%0.0%2.013.36
202320MIX2 levels1511542306730073%3.629.1%13.0%16.1%0.0%2.012.28
202421MIX2 levels26188840310649569%3.419.9%14.0%5.9%1.5%4.624.04
202421MIX2 levels26188840310649569%3.426.3%12.2%14.1%1.2%4.623.10
202522MIX3 levels20188737510741090%4.422.3%11.5%10.7%0.0%3.302.68
202522MIX3 levels20188737510741090%4.428.5%10.9%17.6%0.0%3.302.06
▸ 2026 Season
202623AAChesapeake Baysox17177030886399100%4.122.6%13.9%8.7%3.5%4.764.88-0.1
ROS23MLBBAL12126527462376100%5.422.8%13.5%9.3%2.2%4.464.46+0.1
ROS23MLBBAL1114110100%1.022.8%13.5%9.3%2.3%4.514.51+0.0
2026 TOT23MLBBAL135582148761525.5%13.0%12.5%2.6%4.614.68+1.1
2026 FULL23MLBBAL1511022.8%13.5%9.3%2.3%4.514.13+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202724MLBBAL21211184991166111100%5.623.3%12.2%11.1%2.2%4.354.28+1.5
202825MLBBAL24241385811376613100%5.723.6%11.4%12.2%2.3%4.254.18+2.0
202926MLBBAL25251506321507015100%6.023.7%11.1%12.6%2.3%4.204.16+2.2
203027MLBBAL25251486231476915100%5.923.6%11.1%12.5%2.4%4.204.20+2.1
203128MLBBAL24241436041426815100%6.023.5%11.3%12.2%2.5%4.254.29+1.9
203229MLBBAL23231375771346615100%5.923.3%11.5%11.8%2.6%4.354.42+1.6
203330MLBBAL21211285431246415100%6.122.9%11.8%11.1%2.8%4.504.60+1.2
203431MLBBAL20201205061146115100%6.022.5%12.2%10.4%3.1%4.684.80+0.8
202724MLBBAL995222051275100%5.823.3%12.2%11.1%2.3%4.404.33+0.1
202825MLBBAL16169238892449100%5.823.6%11.4%12.2%2.4%4.304.23+1.1
202926MLBBAL20201195021195612100%6.023.7%11.1%12.6%2.4%4.254.21+1.7
203027MLBBAL21211265321265913100%6.023.6%11.1%12.5%2.5%4.254.25+1.7
203128MLBBAL21211285401276114100%6.123.5%11.3%12.2%2.6%4.304.34+1.6
203229MLBBAL21211245241226014100%5.923.3%11.5%11.8%2.7%4.404.47+1.3
203330MLBBAL20201195021155915100%6.022.9%11.8%11.1%2.9%4.564.66+1.0
203431MLBBAL19191124731065715100%5.922.5%12.2%10.4%3.2%4.744.86+0.7
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career146146872368385842498100%6.023.3%11.5%11.8%2.7%4.404.05+13.8
/ 200 IP34342008441979722100%6.023.3%11.5%11.8%2.7%4.404.05+3.2
Career886932714343121951778%3.721.7%13.6%8.1%1.2%3.913.64+6.7
/ 200 IP54422008781911201078%3.721.7%13.6%8.1%1.2%3.913.64+4.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Luis De León (OGILVIE) 4.46 22.8%13.5%2.2% 4.20 23.5%12.0%406 -0.26
Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 4.33 FIP 23 SP- 4.33 23.4%12.4%3.0%.288 4.01 25.1%10.7%150 -0.32 3.72 239 91
Tate Kuehner L 2026 · 4.00 FIP 23 SP 4.00 20.5%13.9%1.6%.275 3.80 20.7%7.5%141 -0.20 3.73 245 87
Adam Tulloch L 2026 · 4.49 FIP 23 SP- 4.49 20.3%14.1%2.4%.313 4.65 17.8%1.7%139 +0.16 4.12 234 86
Hunter Owen L 2026 · 4.06 FIP 23 SP 4.06 21.0%10.7%2.5%.297 6.60 15.1%4.8%51 +2.54 4.06 248 86
Jimmy Robbins L 2027 · 3.89 FIP 24 SP- 3.89 23.3%11.3%2.4%.286 4.89 18.1%2.5%99 +1.00 3.89 176 86
Brandon Knarr L 2026 · 4.83 FIP 23 SP 4.83 22.6%13.6%3.5%.299 4.21 19.9%10.8%158 -0.62 4.15 256 85
Josh Trentadue L 2026 · 3.63 FIP 23 SP- 3.63 23.1%12.0%1.7%.249 4.99 21.5%9.2%48 +1.36 3.10 196 85
A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.68 FIP 23 SP- 3.68 22.8%10.0%2.3%.262 5.86 20.1%8.4%51 +2.18 3.64 203 84
Sebastian Gongora L 2026 · 3.80 FIP 23 SP 3.80 21.8%14.0%1.4%.335 3.81 18.5%11.0%84 +0.01 3.80 152 84
Caden Grice L 2025 · 4.23 FIP 22 SP 4.23 23.1%15.7%2.0%.282 5.28 17.3%1.8%55 +1.05 4.23 105 83
Sam Weatherly L 2025 · 3.86 FIP 22 SP 3.86 24.0%12.8%2.1%.323 4.14 21.9%8.9%41 +0.28 3.86 189 82
Brian Holmes L 2027 · 4.25 FIP 24 SP- 4.25 21.0%9.9%3.0%.333 4.75 17.3%8.0%104 +0.50 3.42 205 82
Trenton Wallace L 2026 · 3.67 FIP 23 SP- 3.67 25.8%15.8%1.3%.224 4.69 22.9%10.2%206 +1.02 2.75 286 81
Xavier Rivas L 2026 · 4.87 FIP 23 SP 4.87 23.2%16.4%3.0%.229 5.34 28.7%15.4%64 +0.47 4.87 150 81
Brent Headrick L 2026 · 4.52 FIP 23 SP 4.52 22.9%14.0%2.9%.383 4.63 24.2%16.7%227 +0.11 2.40 382 81
Samy Natera Jr. L 2026 · 5.17 FIP 23 SP 5.17 22.9%13.3%4.2%.294 3.68 29.8%14.8%108 -1.49 1.94 191 80
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2025 · 4.67 FIP 22 SP 4.67 19.6%14.6%2.5%.266 3.89 20.3%3.7%33 -0.78 2.81 146 80
Greg Farone L 2026 · 4.26 FIP 23 SP 4.26 20.3%10.4%2.8%.301 6.14 17.6%4.8%71 +1.88 4.26 176 80
Anthony Veneziano L 2026 · 4.24 FIP 23 SP 4.24 24.9%10.8%3.4%.298 5.19 18.7%8.0%358 +0.95 4.24 501 80
Lucas Gordon L 2026 · 4.60 FIP 23 SP 4.60 20.6%10.9%3.4%.269 5.90 20.7%8.4%87 +1.30 4.60 308 80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION913023.3%11.7%0.974.35
Patrick Sandoval ('24)68922.7%10.1%0.924.01
Gio Gonzalez ('20)614121.8%9.5%0.853.85
Tyson Ross ('19)410721.3%10.8%0.844.31
Carlos Martinez ('21)712122.7%9.1%0.813.67
Aaron Sanchez ('22)79318.1%10.0%0.984.32
Wade Miley ('23)813618.2%8.5%1.074.20