Luis De León
P
Chesapeake Baysox
Age 23
LHP
6'3" / 168 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 1.0 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION70 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102111vR 120
ERA4.46
FIP4.46
K%22.8%
BB%13.5%
K-BB%9.3%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 135 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL BAL Black | 10 | 5 | 28 | 118 | 45 | 13 | 0 | 50% | 2.8 | 25.9% | 13.8% | 12.2% | 0.0% | 5.14 | 2.65 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL BAL Black | 10 | 5 | 28 | 118 | 45 | 13 | 0 | 50% | 2.8 | 38.1% | 11.0% | 27.1% | 0.0% | 5.14 | 1.28 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 11 | 54 | 230 | 67 | 30 | 0 | 73% | 3.6 | 20.6% | 15.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% | 2.01 | 3.36 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 11 | 54 | 230 | 67 | 30 | 0 | 73% | 3.6 | 29.1% | 13.0% | 16.1% | 0.0% | 2.01 | 2.28 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 18 | 88 | 403 | 106 | 49 | 5 | 69% | 3.4 | 19.9% | 14.0% | 5.9% | 1.5% | 4.62 | 4.04 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 18 | 88 | 403 | 106 | 49 | 5 | 69% | 3.4 | 26.3% | 12.2% | 14.1% | 1.2% | 4.62 | 3.10 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 18 | 87 | 375 | 107 | 41 | 0 | 90% | 4.4 | 22.3% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 0.0% | 3.30 | 2.68 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 18 | 87 | 375 | 107 | 41 | 0 | 90% | 4.4 | 28.5% | 10.9% | 17.6% | 0.0% | 3.30 | 2.06 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | 17 | 17 | 70 | 308 | 86 | 39 | 9 | 100% | 4.1 | 22.6% | 13.9% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 4.76 | 4.88 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 62 | 37 | 6 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.8% | 13.5% | 9.3% | 2.2% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | BAL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 13.5% | 9.3% | 2.3% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 135 | 582 | 148 | 76 | 15 | — | — | 25.5% | 13.0% | 12.5% | 2.6% | 4.61 | 4.68 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 22.8% | 13.5% | 9.3% | 2.3% | 4.51 | 4.13 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 21 | 21 | 118 | 499 | 116 | 61 | 11 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.3% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 2.2% | 4.35 | 4.28 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 24 | 24 | 138 | 581 | 137 | 66 | 13 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 2.3% | 4.25 | 4.18 | +2.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 25 | 25 | 150 | 632 | 150 | 70 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.7% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 2.3% | 4.20 | 4.16 | +2.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 25 | 25 | 148 | 623 | 147 | 69 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 12.5% | 2.4% | 4.20 | 4.20 | +2.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 24 | 24 | 143 | 604 | 142 | 68 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.5% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 2.5% | 4.25 | 4.29 | +1.9 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 23 | 23 | 137 | 577 | 134 | 66 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.3% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 2.6% | 4.35 | 4.42 | +1.6 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 21 | 21 | 128 | 543 | 124 | 64 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.9% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 4.50 | 4.60 | +1.2 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 20 | 20 | 120 | 506 | 114 | 61 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.5% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.68 | 4.80 | +0.8 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 51 | 27 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.3% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 2.3% | 4.40 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 16 | 16 | 92 | 388 | 92 | 44 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 2.4% | 4.30 | 4.23 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 20 | 20 | 119 | 502 | 119 | 56 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.7% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 2.4% | 4.25 | 4.21 | +1.7 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 21 | 21 | 126 | 532 | 126 | 59 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 12.5% | 2.5% | 4.25 | 4.25 | +1.7 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 21 | 21 | 128 | 540 | 127 | 61 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.5% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 2.6% | 4.30 | 4.34 | +1.6 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 21 | 21 | 124 | 524 | 122 | 60 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.3% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 2.7% | 4.40 | 4.47 | +1.3 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 20 | 20 | 119 | 502 | 115 | 59 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.9% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.66 | +1.0 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 19 | 19 | 112 | 473 | 106 | 57 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.5% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.74 | 4.86 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 146 | 146 | 872 | 3683 | 858 | 424 | 98 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.3% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 2.7% | 4.40 | 4.05 | +13.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 197 | 97 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.3% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 2.7% | 4.40 | 4.05 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 88 | 69 | 327 | 1434 | 312 | 195 | 17 | 78% | 3.7 | 21.7% | 13.6% | 8.1% | 1.2% | 3.91 | 3.64 | +6.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 42 | 200 | 878 | 191 | 120 | 10 | 78% | 3.7 | 21.7% | 13.6% | 8.1% | 1.2% | 3.91 | 3.64 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis De León (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.46 | 22.8% | 13.5% | 2.2% | — | 4.20 | 23.5% | 12.0% | 406 | -0.26 | — | — | — |
| Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.33 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.0% | .288 | 4.01 | 25.1% | 10.7% | 150 | -0.32 | 3.72 | 239 | 91 |
| Tate Kuehner L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.00 | 20.5% | 13.9% | 1.6% | .275 | 3.80 | 20.7% | 7.5% | 141 | -0.20 | 3.73 | 245 | 87 |
| Adam Tulloch L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.3% | 14.1% | 2.4% | .313 | 4.65 | 17.8% | 1.7% | 139 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 234 | 86 |
| Hunter Owen L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.06 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .297 | 6.60 | 15.1% | 4.8% | 51 | +2.54 | 4.06 | 248 | 86 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.89 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.89 | 176 | 86 |
| Brandon Knarr L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.83 | 22.6% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .299 | 4.21 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 158 | -0.62 | 4.15 | 256 | 85 |
| Josh Trentadue L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.63 | 23.1% | 12.0% | 1.7% | .249 | 4.99 | 21.5% | 9.2% | 48 | +1.36 | 3.10 | 196 | 85 |
| A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.68 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .262 | 5.86 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.18 | 3.64 | 203 | 84 |
| Sebastian Gongora L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.80 | 21.8% | 14.0% | 1.4% | .335 | 3.81 | 18.5% | 11.0% | 84 | +0.01 | 3.80 | 152 | 84 |
| Caden Grice L 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.23 | 23.1% | 15.7% | 2.0% | .282 | 5.28 | 17.3% | 1.8% | 55 | +1.05 | 4.23 | 105 | 83 |
| Sam Weatherly L 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.86 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.14 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 41 | +0.28 | 3.86 | 189 | 82 |
| Brian Holmes L 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.25 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.75 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.50 | 3.42 | 205 | 82 |
| Trenton Wallace L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.67 | 25.8% | 15.8% | 1.3% | .224 | 4.69 | 22.9% | 10.2% | 206 | +1.02 | 2.75 | 286 | 81 |
| Xavier Rivas L 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.87 | 23.2% | 16.4% | 3.0% | .229 | 5.34 | 28.7% | 15.4% | 64 | +0.47 | 4.87 | 150 | 81 |
| Brent Headrick L 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.52 | 22.9% | 14.0% | 2.9% | .383 | 4.63 | 24.2% | 16.7% | 227 | +0.11 | 2.40 | 382 | 81 |
| Samy Natera Jr. L 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.17 | 22.9% | 13.3% | 4.2% | .294 | 3.68 | 29.8% | 14.8% | 108 | -1.49 | 1.94 | 191 | 80 |
| Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.67 | 19.6% | 14.6% | 2.5% | .266 | 3.89 | 20.3% | 3.7% | 33 | -0.78 | 2.81 | 146 | 80 |
| Greg Farone L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.26 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 2.8% | .301 | 6.14 | 17.6% | 4.8% | 71 | +1.88 | 4.26 | 176 | 80 |
| Anthony Veneziano L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.24 | 24.9% | 10.8% | 3.4% | .298 | 5.19 | 18.7% | 8.0% | 358 | +0.95 | 4.24 | 501 | 80 |
| Lucas Gordon L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.60 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .269 | 5.90 | 20.7% | 8.4% | 87 | +1.30 | 4.60 | 308 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 130 | 23.3% | 11.7% | 0.97 | 4.35 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Gio Gonzalez ('20) | 6 | 141 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 0.85 | 3.85 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Carlos Martinez ('21) | 7 | 121 | 22.7% | 9.1% | 0.81 | 3.67 |
| Aaron Sanchez ('22) | 7 | 93 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 0.98 | 4.32 |
| Wade Miley ('23) | 8 | 136 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 1.07 | 4.20 |