Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips:
RAW = as recorded ·
CTX = with park/league context ·
A+C = actual + context combined ·
MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park. Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors. WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023
22
ROKMLE
ACL Mariners
3
0
3
17
1
5
0
0%
0.9
5.9%
29.4%
-23.5%
0.0%
10.12
6.33
—
2023
22
ROKRAW
ACL Mariners
3
0
3
17
1
5
0
0%
0.9
5.9%
29.4%
-23.5%
0.0%
10.12
7.97
—
2024
23
MIXMLE
2 levels
25
25
116
518
148
69
11
100%
4.7
21.4%
15.6%
5.9%
2.9%
3.71
4.85
—
2024
23
MIXMLE
2 levels
25
25
116
518
148
69
11
100%
4.7
21.4%
15.6%
5.9%
2.9%
3.71
4.85
—
2024
23
MIXRAW
2 levels
25
25
116
518
148
69
11
100%
4.7
28.6%
13.3%
15.3%
2.1%
3.71
3.56
—
2025
24
MIXMLE
2 levels
24
13
90
374
112
38
7
54%
3.8
23.3%
11.6%
11.7%
2.3%
3.20
3.86
—
2025
24
MIXMLE
2 levels
24
13
90
374
112
38
7
54%
3.8
23.3%
11.6%
11.7%
2.3%
3.20
3.86
—
2025
24
MIXRAW
2 levels
24
13
90
374
112
38
7
54%
3.8
29.9%
10.2%
19.8%
1.9%
3.20
2.89
—
2026
25
AAMLE
Pensacola Blue Wahoos
3
3
7
36
12
6
0
100%
2.4
33.3%
16.7%
16.7%
0.0%
6.14
2.40
—
2026
25
AAMLE
Pensacola Blue Wahoos
3
3
7
36
12
6
0
100%
2.4
33.3%
16.7%
16.7%
0.0%
6.14
2.40
—
2026
25
AARAW
Pensacola Blue Wahoos
3
3
7
36
12
6
0
100%
2.4
33.3%
16.7%
16.7%
0.0%
6.14
2.28
—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027
26
MLB
MIA
23
23
136
574
132
76
17
100%
5.9
23.0%
13.2%
9.9%
2.9%
4.79
4.79
+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028
27
MLBMLE
MIA
22
22
134
567
130
72
17
100%
6.1
22.9%
12.7%
10.2%
3.0%
4.76
4.78
+0.2
2029
28
MLBMLE
MIA
22
22
130
550
125
69
17
100%
5.9
22.7%
12.5%
10.3%
3.1%
4.78
4.82
+0.1
2030
29
MLBMLE
MIA
21
21
124
525
118
65
17
100%
5.9
22.4%
12.4%
10.0%
3.2%
4.85
4.92
-0.0
2031
30
MLBMLE
MIA
19
19
117
494
109
62
17
100%
6.2
22.1%
12.6%
9.5%
3.4%
4.98
5.08
-0.2
2028
27
MLBCTX
MIA
8
8
50
211
48
27
6
100%
6.2
22.9%
12.7%
10.2%
2.8%
4.68
4.70
+0.1
2029
28
MLBCTX
MIA
13
13
78
329
75
41
10
100%
6.0
22.7%
12.5%
10.3%
2.9%
4.70
4.74
+0.1
2030
29
MLBCTX
MIA
15
15
88
372
83
46
11
100%
5.9
22.4%
12.4%
10.0%
3.0%
4.76
4.83
-0.0
2031
30
MLBCTX
MIA
15
15
92
388
86
49
13
100%
6.1
22.1%
12.6%
9.5%
3.2%
4.89
4.99
-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career
—
RAW
51
51
308
1299
292
163
39
100%
6.0
22.5%
12.5%
9.9%
3.0%
4.77
4.45
+1.6
/ 200 IP
—
RAW
33
33
200
844
190
106
25
100%
6.0
22.5%
12.5%
9.9%
3.0%
4.77
4.45
+1.0
Career
—
MLE
55
41
216
945
211
135
24
75%
3.9
22.4%
14.3%
8.1%
2.5%
3.66
4.39
+0.0
/ 200 IP
—
MLE
51
38
200
874
195
125
22
75%
3.9
22.4%
14.3%
8.1%
2.5%
3.66
4.39
+0.0
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.