Aaron Parker

C New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 24 R/R 5'7" / 210 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#2052ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	21	ATOR	100	.235/.380/.519	5	1	91	—	.186/.300/.395
2025	22	A+TOR	276	.233/.303/.386	8	5	53	—	.188/.245/.318
2026	23	AA/INTL2 orgs	384	.267/.366/.473	20	17	94	—	.215/.287/.370
2027PROJMLE	24	MLBTOR	4	.187/.254/.336	0	0	65	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	25	MLBTOR	74	.191/.259/.342	3	1	68	0.0
2029PROJ45% MLB	26	MLBTOR	129	.193/.262/.345	5	2	70	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$0.2M2034Ext$5M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

ISO79

wRC+73

wOBA69

BB%69

Z-Con%27

Speed26

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 1.6, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 89%

CompsJesús Bastidas (age 24) · Kevin Smith (age 25) · Kendall Simmons (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.187 / .254 / .336

PA4

HR0

K%25

BB%8

BABIP261

ISO138

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	21	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	100	81	19	8	0	5	17	27	2	1	0	235	380	519	899	284	286	27	17	394	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	276	249	58	12	1	8	21	54	4	5	0	233	303	386	688	153	265	20	8	307	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	350	304	77	8	0	19	43	113	1	12	4	253	348	467	815	214	335	32	12	359	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	34	26	11	0	0	1	8	5	0	5	0	423	559	538	1.097	115	500	15	24	492	219	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	21	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	100	86	16	6	0	4	12	35	2	1	0	186	300	395	695	209	258	35	12	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	276	255	48	10	1	7	15	76	4	5	0	188	245	318	562	129	233	28	5	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	350	316	68	7	0	14	31	138	1	12	4	215	287	370	658	155	323	39	9	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	100	86	16	6	0	4	12	35	2	1	0	186	300	395	695	209	255	35	12	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	100	81	19	8	0	5	17	27	2	1	0	235	380	519	899	284	286	27	17	394	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	276	255	48	10	1	7	15	76	4	5	0	188	245	318	562	129	236	28	5	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	—	276	249	58	12	1	8	21	54	4	5	0	233	303	386	688	153	265	20	8	307	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	384	347	75	7	0	16	34	151	1	17	4	216	288	375	663	159	326	39	9	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	384	330	88	8	0	20	51	118	1	17	4	267	366	473	839	206	352	31	13	371	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	100	86	16	6	0	4	12	35	2	1	0	186	300	395	695	209	258	35	12	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	276	255	48	10	1	7	15	76	4	5	0	188	245	318	562	129	233	28	5	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	384	346	75	7	0	16	34	151	1	17	4	217	288	376	664	159	323	39	9	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	21	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	100	86	16	6	0	4	12	35	2	1	0	186	300	395	695	209	258	35	12	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	276	255	48	10	1	7	15	76	4	5	0	188	245	318	562	129	233	28	5	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	384	346	75	7	0	16	34	151	1	17	4	217	288	376	664	159	323	39	9	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TOR	2%	380	346	66	10	1	14	29	139	2	8	2	187	254	336	590	149	260	37	8	264	65	-16	+1	+0	+7	+8	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	24	MLB CTX	TOR	2%	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	187	254	336	591	149	261	25	0	264	65	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	31%	239	217	41	6	0	9	18	85	2	5	1	190	258	342	600	152	262	36	8	268	68	-9	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	45%	289	263	51	8	1	10	22	101	2	6	2	193	261	345	606	152	263	35	8	271	70	-10	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	49%	310	281	56	9	1	11	24	107	2	6	2	194	263	345	608	151	264	35	8	272	70	-11	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	TOR	52%	320	290	57	9	1	11	25	109	2	5	1	195	264	344	608	149	265	34	8	272	70	-11	+1	-1	+6	+7	0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	TOR	52%	316	286	57	9	1	11	25	107	2	4	1	195	264	341	605	145	265	34	8	271	69	-11	+0	-1	+6	+7	0.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	TOR	52%	311	282	54	9	0	10	24	106	2	2	1	192	260	333	593	141	262	34	8	266	66	-12	+0	-2	+6	+7	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	31%	74	68	13	2	0	3	6	26	0	1	0	191	259	342	601	152	263	35	8	269	68	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	45%	129	117	22	3	0	5	10	45	1	2	1	193	262	345	607	152	264	35	8	271	70	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	49%	152	138	26	4	0	5	12	53	1	3	1	195	264	346	610	151	265	35	8	273	70	-5	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	TOR	52%	165	150	30	5	0	6	13	56	1	2	1	196	265	344	609	149	266	34	8	273	70	-6	+0	-0	+3	+4	0.0
2032	29	MLB CTX	TOR	52%	163	148	29	5	0	5	13	55	1	2	1	196	265	341	606	146	266	34	8	271	69	-6	+0	-1	+3	+4	-0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	TOR	52%	160	146	27	4	0	5	12	55	1	1	1	193	261	333	594	141	263	34	8	267	66	-6	-0	-1	+3	+3	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	843	767	147	23	0	29	66	290	5	11	5	192	260	335	595	143	260	34	8	271	70	-31	+0	-2	+15	+18	0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	591	113	18	0	22	51	224	4	8	4	191	260	333	593	142	261	34	8	271	70	-24	+0	-2	+12	+14	0.0
Career	—	MLE		—	2753	2496	489	78	5	96	215	953	20	55	13	196	265	347	612	151	269	35	8	271	70	-75	+3	-4	+36	+43	0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	589	115	18	1	23	51	225	5	13	3	195	265	346	611	151	267	35	8	271	70	-24	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 350 PAwOBA .351 → .289 (−62)K% 32.3% → 39.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.29%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	39.39%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.29%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.027	8.83%
HBP% /PA	0.29%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	0.25%
Singles /BIP	26.18%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.006	×1.027	26.22%
Doubles /BIP	4.19%	÷1.000	×0.860	×1.006	×1.027	3.72%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.950	×1.006	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.95%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.027	7.97%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .351 → .289; ISO .214 → .164; BABIP .335 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Vancouver Canadians · 276 PAwOBA .301 → .247 (−54)K% 19.6% → 27.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.57%	÷0.958	×1.350	—	—	27.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.61%	÷1.039	×0.710	—	×1.012	5.26%
HBP% /PA	1.45%	—	×0.810	—	×1.012	1.19%
Singles /BIP	18.97%	÷1.022	×0.910	×0.972	×1.012	16.61%
Doubles /BIP	6.15%	÷0.898	×0.830	×0.972	×1.012	5.59%
Triples /BIP	0.51%	÷0.939	×0.820	×0.972	×1.012	0.44%
Home runs /BIP	4.10%	÷0.855	×0.830	—	×1.012	4.03%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 104, 2B 80, 3B 88, K 92, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.

Result: wOBA .301 → .247; ISO .153 → .136; BABIP .265 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADunedin Blue Jays · 100 PAwOBA .384 → .303 (−81)K% 27.0% → 35.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.00%	÷1.041	×1.360	—	—	35.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.00%	÷0.959	×0.690	—	×1.015	12.42%
HBP% /PA	2.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	1.58%
Singles /BIP	11.11%	÷0.962	×0.920	×1.024	×1.015	11.04%
Doubles /BIP	14.81%	÷0.999	×0.830	×1.024	×1.015	12.79%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.910	×1.024	×1.015	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.26%	÷1.003	×0.800	—	×1.015	7.49%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 92, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 108, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.

Result: wOBA .384 → .303; ISO .284 → .221; BABIP .286 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#3Mike Difelice'96-'08 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,714 PA	2.6	1,714	28	3	226*	277*	345*	+30	+0	0.6	1.5
/162	664	11	1	+11.7	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 2
#4Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
/162	664	13	1	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.3	848	29	12	194	260	343	+15	+12	0.8	0.8
/162	664	23	10	+11.9	+9.4	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Steve Swisher'74-'82 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,577 PA	2.4	1,577	20	4	211*	275*	330*	+28	+0	-0.1	0.6
/162	664	8	2	+11.9	+0.0	-0.0	pk7: 1
#6Mike Ryan'64-'74 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,098 PA	3.2	2,098	28	4	196*	257*	311*	+38	+0	-1.9	-0.9
/162	664	9	1	+11.9	+0.0	-0.6	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Aaron Parker (OGILVIE)	24	40	45	45	30	185/252/333	148	260	7	4	37%	8%	65	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jesús Bastidas 2023 · AA	24	42	49→50	45→50	41	213/282/354	140	287	17	12	31%	7%	80	-0.1	210/279/347	137	276	16	12	29%	6%	77	-0.3	202/274/337	135	264	15	13	29%	6%	70	-0.8
✕Kevin Smith 2021 · AA	25	39→45	50→55	49→50	35	205/250/359	154	287	19	13	35%	5%	69	-0.9	213/266/367	154	292	18	15	32%	6%	76	-0.4	209/261/367	157	281	19	15	32%	6%	73	-0.5
✕Kendall Simmons 2024 · A	24	38	49→50	48→50	39	200/266/350	150	279	17	9	34%	6%	73	-0.6	209/268/339	130	307	14	8	35%	6%	71	-0.8	195/253/316	121	290	13	7	36%	5%	57	-0.6
✕Sean Coyle 2016 · AAA	24	42→38	50	52→50	40	212/274/364	153	310	19	13	37%	7%	79	-0.2	181/244/285	104	283	10	10	37%	7%	49	-2.4	153/218/242	88	242	7	9	38%	7%	27	-1.9
✕Hendrik Clementina 2022 · AA	25	38	50	47→30	34	203/246/345	142	289	20	5	37%	5%	64	-1.3	205/252/325	120	317	15	4	38%	5%	61	-1.5	191/238/300	109	297	14	1	39%	5%	48	-1.0
✕Kody Kirkland 2007 · AAA	24	38→42	50	46→45	34	198/258/359	162	284	17	9	36%	5%	72	-0.7	191/251/320	129	271	13	9	33%	6%	60	-1.6	181/241/294	113	252	11	9	31%	6%	50	-1.6
✕Jonathan Greene 2010 · AA	24	37→47	51→50	47→40	35	198/265/353	155	277	20	5	35%	5%	74	-0.5	208/264/337	129	309	15	5	36%	4%	70	-0.9	205/259/319	115	313	13	3	37%	4%	62	-1.0
✕Lucas May 2009 · AA	24	38→43	50→55	46→45	38	204/250/356	151	263	18	6	30%	5%	68	-1.0	219/273/355	136	288	15	6	28%	6%	76	-0.4	215/274/348	133	283	14	4	28%	6%	73	-0.3
✕Andy Yerzy 2022 · AA	24	32	50	49→40	42	178/266/325	146	259	19	7	38%	8%	69	-0.9	196/276/333	137	263	16	6	30%	9%	73	-0.6	162/237/266	105	230	13	1	34%	8%	41	-1.1
✕Brett Auerbach 2023 · AA	24	40→34	50→45	50→55	40	208/271/356	148	302	19	17	36%	7%	76	-0.4	201/260/308	107	298	10	16	34%	7%	61	-1.5	192/254/283	91	282	7	17	33%	7%	49	-1.1
✕Brandon Hicks 2009 · AA	23	40→41	50	49→50	40	201/273/359	158	301	18	11	38%	8%	78	-0.3	200/260/325	125	290	13	13	34%	7%	65	-1.2	193/259/342	149	302	19	10	40%	7%	65	-0.8
✕Travis Demeritte 2019 · AA	24	37→46	49→55	47→50	40	194/256/345	151	279	17	7	36%	7%	68	-1.0	219/285/391	172	317	20	8	35%	8%	90	+0.6	211/277/384	173	306	21	9	36%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Eduardo Diaz 2022 · AA	25	39→45	50	51→50	36	207/254/358	151	276	19	13	32%	4%	70	-0.8	212/258/339	127	293	13	13	31%	5%	67	-1.1	208/251/326	118	286	10	14	30%	4%	57	-1.4
✕Carter Aldrete 2023 · AA	25	41	49→50	42→45	39	213/264/359	145	291	18	7	33%	6%	74	-0.5	204/250/332	128	280	15	5	32%	6%	62	-1.4	182/224/297	114	246	14	1	32%	5%	42	-1.5
✕Brandon Waring 2010 · AA	24	40	52→55	44→40	36	210/267/376	167	297	21	3	36%	6%	80	-0.2	202/265/364	162	293	19	2	36%	6%	76	-0.4	193/260/359	166	278	20	1	37%	6%	70	-0.7
✕Jair Camargo 2023 · AA	24	40	51→50	45	29	204/244/354	150	334	22	7	44%	4%	65	-1.2	204/253/345	141	315	18	5	39%	5%	67	-1.1	190/242/324	134	289	17	3	39%	5%	55	-0.9
✕René Pinto 2022 · AAA	25	43	50→55	44→40	35	221/265/367	145	310	18	6	34%	5%	76	-0.4	211/251/369	158	299	20	4	35%	4%	72	-0.7	188/231/348	160	266	22	2	38%	5%	58	-0.8
✕Hudson Potts 2023 · AA	24	38→41	50	47→40	34	201/245/353	152	294	19	4	38%	5%	65	-1.2	188/249/326	138	325	16	5	44%	7%	61	-1.5	124/200/251	127	227	16	0	50%	8%	24	-1.9
✕Johan Mieses 2019 · AA	24	33	51→55	44→50	34	185/232/337	151	252	20	3	35%	5%	57	-1.8	199/259/350	151	252	20	6	30%	6%	71	-0.8	192/268/358	166	237	23	7	30%	7%	73	-0.4
✕Gabriel Cancel 2021 · AA	24	40→46	47→50	50	37	207/255/341	133	283	15	11	32%	5%	66	-1.1	195/250/323	128	303	14	16	38%	6%	60	-1.6	174/239/298	124	269	15	16	39%	7%	48	-0.9

Aaron Parker

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps