Jair Camargo — OGILVIE

Jair CamargoC Gwinnett Stripers

Age 27 R/R 5'10" / 230 lbs AAA BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

wRC+†31

AVG/OBP/SLG.191 / .243 / .328

PA170

HR5

K%39

BB%5

MLB%10%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

20→20

PWR

42→42

SPD

45→45

EYE

37→37

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.0peak

2027

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$0.2M	—	—	—
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$-2M		$-10M	-$8M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	17	ROK	DSL Dodgers 2	151	138	27	3	2	1	4	40	6	7	3	.196	.250	.268	.518	.072	.265	26	3	.219	26	-13	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.6
2017	18	ROK	AZL Dodgers	140	134	23	5	1	1	3	56	2	0	1	.172	.201	.246	.448	.075	.282	40	2	.200	11	-14	-0	+0	+3	+4	-0.8
2018	19	ROK	AZL Dodgers	119	114	20	4	1	3	2	49	1	3	0	.175	.197	.307	.504	.132	.266	41	2	.202	13	-12	+1	+0	+2	+3	-0.6
2019	20	A	Great Lakes Loons	316	291	54	14	0	3	14	113	7	5	3	.186	.240	.265	.505	.079	.285	36	4	.224	30	-25	-0	+0	+6	+9	-1.1
2021	22	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	280	267	46	5	1	10	8	144	4	3	1	.172	.208	.311	.519	.139	.316	51	3	.219	26	-23	+0	+0	+5	+8	-1.1
2022	23	AA	3 teams	390	367	74	9	0	17	17	169	3	5	3	.202	.243	.365	.608	.163	.310	43	4	.261	58	-19	-0	+0	+7	+11	-0.1
2023	24	AAA	2 teams	383	357	73	8	1	17	19	155	4	2	1	.204	.253	.375	.628	.171	.298	40	5	.270	65	-15	+0	+0	+7	+11	0.3
2024	25	AAA	3 teams	448	412	72	18	1	13	23	162	10	4	2	.175	.236	.318	.554	.143	.246	36	5	.244	45	-28	+0	-0	+8	+13	-0.7
2025	26	AAA	St. Paul Saints	120	115	21	5	0	1	5	56	0	1	0	.183	.217	.252	.469	.070	.345	47	4	.210	19	-11	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.5
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	27	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	65	63	12	1	0	0	1	30	1	1	1	.190	.215	.206	.422	.016	.364	46	2	.187	1	-7	-0	+0	+1	+2	-0.5
ROS	27	MLB	ATL	105	98	19	3	0	3	5	42	1	1	0	.194	.240	.316	.557	.122	.300	40	5	.250	50	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
TOT	27	MLB	ATL	170	161	31	4	0	3	6	72	2	2	1	.193	.231	.273	.504	.081	.322	42	4	.226	31	-13	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	28	MLB 20%	ATL	259	241	50	9	1	7	13	84	3	2	1	.207	.257	.340	.597	.133	.279	32	5	.262	59	-12	+0	+0	+5	+7	-0.0
2028	29	MLB 33%	ATL	299	277	57	10	1	8	16	96	4	2	1	.206	.259	.336	.595	.130	.280	32	5	.265	61	-13	+0	-1	+5	+8	-0.0
2029	30	MLB 43%	ATL	325	300	61	11	1	8	18	104	4	1	1	.203	.258	.327	.584	.123	.279	32	6	.264	61	-15	-0	-1	+6	+9	-0.1
2030	31	MLB 52%	ATL	308	283	58	10	1	8	18	99	4	0	0	.205	.262	.332	.594	.127	.278	32	6	.262	59	-14	+0	-2	+6	+9	-0.2
2031	32	MLB 64%	ATL	287	266	53	9	1	7	16	94	3	0	0	.199	.253	.320	.572	.120	.276	33	6	.257	55	-15	+0	-3	+5	+8	-0.4
2032	33	MLB 73%	ATL	253	234	47	8	1	6	14	84	3	0	0	.201	.255	.321	.575	.120	.275	33	6	.252	51	-14	+0	-3	+5	+7	-0.6
2033	34	MLB 91%	ATL	209	193	36	6	0	4	12	71	2	0	0	.187	.242	.280	.521	.093	.273	34	6	.246	46	-13	+0	-4	+4	+6	-0.8
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			4392	4087	791	137	13	117	207	1618	61	36	17	.194	.243	.319	.562	.126	.283	37	5	.247	47	-261	+0	-14	+78	+124	-7.3
/ 162G	—			650	605	117	20	2	17	31	239	9	5	3	.193	.243	.317	.561	.124	.283	37	5	.247	47	-39	-0	-2	+12	+18	-1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	17	ROK	DSL Dodgers 2	151	136	34	4	3	1	6	28	6	7	3	.250	.311	.346	.656	.096	.306	19	4	.293	82	-3	+0	—	—	+4	0.1
2017	18	ROK	AZL Dodgers	140	132	36	9	1	2	5	39	2	0	1	.273	.309	.402	.711	.129	.370	28	4	.314	99	-0	-0	—	—	+4	0.3
2018	19	ROK	AZL Dodgers	119	113	29	7	1	4	3	34	1	3	0	.257	.282	.442	.725	.186	.325	29	3	.312	97	-0	+1	—	—	+3	0.4
2019	20	A	Great Lakes Loons	316	284	67	18	0	4	21	91	7	5	3	.236	.304	.342	.646	.106	.326	29	7	.291	81	-7	-0	—	—	+9	0.2
2021	22	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	280	263	62	7	1	13	12	106	4	3	1	.236	.280	.418	.698	.183	.338	38	4	.307	93	-2	+0	—	—	+8	0.6
2022	23	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	196	176	42	5	0	12	16	66	2	4	2	.239	.309	.472	.781	.233	.300	34	8	.340	118	+4	+0	—	—	+6	1.0
2022	23	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	118	115	34	5	0	6	3	37	0	0	0	.296	.314	.496	.809	.200	.389	31	3	.354	129	+4	+0	—	—	+3	0.7
2022	23	INTL	Tigres del Licey	76	70	15	2	0	2	4	23	1	1	1	.214	.267	.329	.595	.114	.283	30	5	.266	62	-3	-0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2023	24	AAA	St. Paul Saints	368	332	86	16	1	21	29	119	4	2	1	.259	.326	.503	.829	.244	.333	32	8	.360	134	+14	+0	—	—	+10	2.5
2023	24	INTL	Tigres del Licey	15	14	1	0	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	.071	.133	.214	.348	.143	.091	20	7	.154	-24	-2	+0	—	—	+0	-0.2
2024	25	AAA	St. Paul Saints	317	283	60	16	1	12	25	94	7	2	1	.212	.292	.403	.695	.191	.268	30	8	.308	94	-2	+0	—	—	+9	0.7
2024	25	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	25	23	7	1	0	1	2	7	0	1	0	.304	.360	.478	.838	.174	.400	28	8	.371	142	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2024	25	INTL	Tigres del Licey	106	99	32	8	0	3	3	34	3	1	1	.323	.362	.495	.857	.172	.460	32	3	.376	146	+5	-0	—	—	+3	0.8
2025	26	AAA	St. Paul Saints	120	113	24	6	0	2	7	46	0	1	0	.212	.258	.319	.577	.106	.338	38	6	.260	57	-6	+0	—	—	+3	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jair Camargo (OGILVIE)	27	20	42	45	37	.191/.243/.328	.137	.289	5	2	39%	5%	55	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jason Delay 2022 · AAA	27	38	47→45	48→40	33	.198/.238/.325	.127	.287	15	6	36%	4%	50	-1.7	.216/.269/.301	.085	.295	5	5	27%	6%	56	-1.3	.226/.285/.301	.075	.297	3	2	23%	6%	61	-0.4
✕Camden Duzenack 2022 · AAA	27	35→37	49→50	50	35	.190/.239/.328	.138	.268	18	9	36%	5%	52	-1.6	.214/.262/.346	.132	.279	14	11	28%	5%	66	-0.6	.215/.267/.343	.129	.269	14	10	25%	5%	65	-0.4
✕Seby Zavala 2021 · AAA	27	38→39	50	41→40	35	.199/.251/.349	.150	.288	19	4	37%	6%	63	-0.9	.197/.262/.338	.141	.315	17	4	40%	7%	65	-0.7	.193/.272/.319	.126	.301	14	1	38%	8%	62	-0.4
✕Eddy Rodriguez 2013 · AAA	27	36→30	49→50	45→30	34	.193/.234/.329	.135	.272	18	4	36%	4%	50	-1.7	.186/.222/.297	.111	.277	12	3	36%	4%	36	-2.7	.164/.196/.254	.090	.258	9	0	39%	3%	11	-1.6
✕Edwin Díaz 2023 · AAA	27	33→34	49→50	50→40	32	.173/.227/.312	.138	.301	19	6	47%	6%	43	-2.2	.184/.242/.328	.144	.295	18	7	42%	7%	54	-1.4	.178/.259/.338	.160	.225	21	5	31%	8%	60	-0.6
✕Mark Kolozsvary 2023 · MLB	27	37	46→40	47→30	38	.186/.270/.313	.127	.292	13	4	38%	7%	63	-0.9	.190/.267/.321	.131	.292	15	8	38%	6%	63	-0.8	.166/.225/.303	.137	.244	18	4	39%	5%	36	-0.5
✕Matt Spring 2012 · AA	27	36	50	44→45	35	.190/.241/.341	.151	.284	18	4	39%	6%	56	-1.3	.188/.243/.335	.147	.298	18	4	41%	6%	56	-1.3	.167/.219/.320	.153	.245	20	0	40%	5%	40	-0.8
✕Brian Serven 2022 · AAA	27	35	49→50	46→30	38	.191/.245/.335	.144	.238	18	5	29%	5%	57	-1.2	.196/.257/.319	.123	.257	15	4	29%	6%	57	-1.2	.182/.252/.278	.096	.251	12	0	31%	7%	42	-0.9
✕Alvin Colina 2009 · AAA	27	39	45	45→40	37	.202/.247/.322	.121	.269	14	5	30%	4%	53	-1.5	.213/.264/.338	.125	.283	14	5	29%	5%	65	-0.7	.203/.256/.323	.120	.264	15	2	28%	5%	55	-0.5
✕Arden Pabst 2022 · AA	27	33	44→45	42→30	29	.177/.206/.288	.111	.270	13	4	40%	3%	27	-3.3	.189/.247/.330	.141	.290	19	6	40%	6%	56	-1.3	.109/.210/.227	.118	.155	18	0	43%	10%	14	-1.0
✕Colt Morton 2009 · MLB	27	38	47→50	46→30	41	.195/.264/.331	.136	.277	15	3	34%	7%	64	-0.8	.201/.256/.340	.139	.280	16	6	33%	6%	63	-0.9	.170/.220/.361	.191	.196	26	0	30%	5%	50	-0.3
✕Hendrik Clementina 2023 · AAA	26	38	51→50	48→30	31	.198/.241/.345	.147	.309	21	4	42%	5%	57	-1.2	.213/.264/.338	.125	.323	14	6	37%	5%	65	-0.7	.221/.278/.310	.089	.328	5	0	32%	5%	61	-0.2
✕Gabe Johnson 2008 · AAA	28	38	48→50	45→40	40	.198/.259/.337	.138	.279	17	5	35%	7%	63	-0.8	.207/.265/.317	.110	.307	10	8	34%	7%	59	-1.1	.179/.239/.258	.079	.273	6	4	35%	7%	31	-0.7
✕McCarthy Tatum 2023 · AA	27	36→25	45→55	48→50	35	.184/.240/.304	.120	.279	13	9	38%	5%	46	-2.0	.211/.271/.326	.115	.298	10	10	31%	5%	66	-0.6	.215/.285/.308	.094	.297	6	9	28%	4%	64	-0.2
✕Ryan Christianson 2007 · AAA	26	35	47→45	49→50	37	.185/.243/.308	.123	.276	16	9	38%	7%	49	-1.8	.197/.251/.328	.131	.289	16	9	36%	6%	56	-1.3	.160/.212/.283	.123	.220	17	0	36%	6%	24	-0.7
✕Matt Winn 2019 · AAA	26	37→33	46→45	46→30	34	.182/.239/.307	.125	.316	14	2	45%	7%	46	-2.0	.184/.247/.293	.109	.339	10	5	45%	7%	46	-2.0	.093/.176/.162	.069	.167	5	0	45%	9%	-17	-1.1
✕Kevin Richardson 2010 · AAA	29	36	48→50	43→40	35	.191/.246/.323	.132	.283	17	3	38%	5%	54	-1.4	.200/.247/.340	.140	.324	17	5	42%	5%	59	-1.1	.191/.237/.332	.141	.307	18	2	42%	4%	49	-0.8
✕Chris Okey 2021 · AAA	26	37	46→45	49→40	37	.191/.244/.313	.122	.278	14	5	36%	6%	50	-1.8	.212/.266/.329	.117	.304	12	5	32%	6%	63	-0.8	.209/.262/.317	.107	.291	10	2	30%	5%	55	-0.4
✕Cael Brockmeyer 2018 · AAA	26	37→40	45	46→40	38	.192/.248/.309	.116	.266	13	4	32%	6%	51	-1.7	.214/.272/.315	.101	.317	10	7	34%	5%	63	-0.9	.241/.302/.322	.081	.371	7	5	34%	5%	73	-0.0
✕Jorge Saez 2018 · AA	27	39	48→45	46→30	42	.203/.267/.339	.136	.286	17	4	34%	8%	67	-0.5	.210/.276/.341	.131	.299	17	6	33%	8%	71	-0.3	.174/.247/.285	.110	.242	17	3	34%	8%	42	-0.6

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)