Cesar Lares

P Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 24 LHP 6'0" / 170 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

Scout OFP40ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	20	ROKMIN	9	9	31	8.13	3.20	29.5%	5.5%	—	K 20.0% · BB 6.8% · FIP 5.16
2024	21	AMIN	19	19	81	4.56	3.52	20.5%	7.5%	—	K 15.2% · BB 8.8% · FIP 4.51
2026	23	MIX2 levels	14	14	44	9.34	4.81	23.1%	13.1%	—	K 16.9% · BB 17.0% · FIP 6.28
2027PROJ	24	MLBMIN	16	16	90	5.49	5.49	17.6%	13.8%	-0.6
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBMIN	8	8	47	5.22	5.12	19.4%	12.1%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBMIN	13	13	80	5.04	4.97	20.5%	11.7%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Command55FB velo40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsDylan Carmouche (age 22) · Brett Adcock (age 23) · Christian MacLeod (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121129vR 137

ERA5.49

FIP5.49

K%17.6%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%3.9%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5055

CMD3555

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	11	11	46	189	71	20	0	100%	4.2	25.5%	13.2%	12.3%	0.0%	2.93	2.62	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	11	11	46	189	71	20	0	100%	4.2	37.6%	10.6%	27.0%	0.0%	2.93	1.32	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	9	9	31	146	43	8	5	100%	3.4	20.0%	6.8%	13.2%	5.2%	8.13	5.16	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	9	9	31	146	43	8	5	100%	3.4	29.5%	5.5%	24.0%	3.4%	8.13	3.20	—
2024	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	19	19	81	375	77	28	8	100%	4.3	15.2%	8.8%	6.4%	2.9%	4.56	4.51	—
2024	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	19	19	81	375	77	28	8	100%	4.3	15.2%	8.8%	6.4%	2.9%	4.56	4.51	—
2024	21	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	19	19	81	375	77	28	8	100%	4.3	20.5%	7.5%	13.1%	2.1%	4.56	3.52	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	44	221	51	29	7	100%	3.2	16.9%	17.0%	-0.1%	4.5%	9.34	6.28	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	44	221	51	29	7	100%	3.2	16.9%	17.0%	-0.1%	4.5%	9.34	6.28	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	44	221	51	29	7	100%	3.2	23.1%	13.1%	10.0%	3.2%	9.34	4.81	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	MIN	16	16	90	380	67	52	12	100%	5.6	17.6%	13.8%	3.9%	3.2%	5.49	5.49	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIN	19	19	109	461	90	56	15	100%	5.7	19.4%	12.1%	7.4%	3.2%	5.21	5.11	-0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIN	20	20	121	511	105	60	16	100%	6.1	20.5%	11.7%	8.8%	3.2%	5.03	4.96	-0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIN	20	20	119	504	104	58	16	100%	6.0	20.6%	11.6%	9.0%	3.2%	4.98	4.96	-0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIN	19	19	116	489	100	57	16	100%	6.1	20.5%	11.6%	8.8%	3.3%	5.00	5.03	-0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIN	18	18	110	467	94	55	16	100%	6.1	20.2%	11.8%	8.4%	3.4%	5.10	5.16	-0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIN	17	17	104	439	87	53	16	100%	6.1	19.9%	12.1%	7.7%	3.6%	5.24	5.34	-0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIN	8	8	47	198	39	24	6	100%	5.9	19.4%	12.1%	7.4%	3.2%	5.22	5.12	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIN	13	13	80	338	69	39	11	100%	6.2	20.5%	11.7%	8.8%	3.2%	5.04	4.97	-0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIN	15	15	92	388	80	45	12	100%	6.1	20.6%	11.6%	9.0%	3.2%	4.99	4.97	-0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIN	16	16	97	410	84	48	14	100%	6.1	20.5%	11.6%	8.8%	3.3%	5.01	5.04	-0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIN	16	16	97	410	83	48	14	100%	6.1	20.2%	11.8%	8.4%	3.5%	5.11	5.17	-0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIN	16	16	93	393	78	48	14	100%	5.8	19.9%	12.1%	7.7%	3.7%	5.25	5.35	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		85	85	507	2141	433	253	72	100%	6.0	20.2%	11.8%	8.4%	3.4%	5.09	4.72	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	171	100	28	100%	6.0	20.2%	11.8%	8.4%	3.4%	5.09	4.72	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		53	53	202	931	172	106	28	100%	3.8	18.5%	11.3%	7.1%	3.0%	5.78	4.65	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	52	200	920	170	104	28	100%	3.8	18.5%	11.3%	7.1%	3.0%	5.78	4.65	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cesar Lares (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.49	17.6%	13.8%	3.2%	—	5.01	20.2%	8.4%	350	-0.48	—	—	—
Dylan Carmouche L 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.0%	11.6%	2.5%	.332	5.21	16.7%	6.8%	116	+0.86	4.35	239	78
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	78
Christian MacLeod L 2024 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP	4.77	21.5%	13.6%	3.2%	.269	4.50	18.0%	3.0%	128	-0.27	3.88	280	78
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	78
Cameron Bishop L 2019 · 4.65 FIP	23	SP	4.65	16.6%	13.9%	2.2%	.316	3.42	23.8%	11.5%	66	-1.23	2.86	305	78
Shane Drohan L 2023 · 5.13 FIP	24	SP	5.13	19.8%	12.1%	4.0%	.308	3.44	25.0%	16.1%	197	-1.69	2.79	538	78
Brandon Claussen L 2004 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP	4.80	14.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.314	4.56	16.5%	9.2%	244	-0.24	4.41	310	77
Jake Zokan L 2015 · 4.89 FIP	24	SP	4.89	12.5%	9.9%	2.9%	.292	1.79	24.2%	22.5%	37	-3.10	1.79	120	77
Connor O'Halloran L 2024 · 5.09 FIP	21	SP	5.09	17.2%	12.3%	3.4%	.287	6.36	14.3%	-6.0%	32	+1.27	5.09	136	77
Lucas Gordon L 2024 · 5.61 FIP	22	SP	5.61	16.3%	15.7%	3.5%	.212	5.08	20.0%	8.1%	225	-0.53	4.44	338	77
Hunter Owen L 2024 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	14.5%	8.7%	2.5%	.270	4.72	20.7%	10.2%	189	+0.40	4.16	291	76
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	75
J.C. Romero L 2000 · 4.58 FIP	24	SP	4.58	18.7%	11.2%	3.0%	.356	3.98	18.2%	8.4%	209	-0.60	2.88	652	75
Drew Dowd L 2024 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	16.1%	11.7%	2.1%	.280	3.13	24.9%	16.0%	55	-1.23	3.13	166	75
Bodi Rascon L 2023 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP	4.92	17.5%	14.5%	2.7%	.264	5.66	11.5%	-8.3%	43	+0.74	4.18	218	75
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	75
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	74
Dante Biasi L 2022 · 4.91 FIP	24	SP-	4.91	18.7%	15.9%	2.5%	.288	6.65	20.1%	1.7%	69	+1.74	4.91	224	74
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	73
Will Dion L 2024 · 4.97 FIP	24	SP	4.97	19.3%	9.4%	4.2%	.309	3.39	23.5%	16.3%	186	-1.58	3.14	535	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	110	19.9%	12.0%	1.28	5.14
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Jeff Robinson ('87-'92, 0 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.3%*	10.9%*	1.38*	5.14*
Mysterious Walker ('10-'15, -1 WAR*)	1.5	99	20.6%*	11.4%*	1.25*	5.38*
George Chalmers ('10-'16, 2 WAR*)	3.2	108	20.2%*	10.7%*	1.14*	4.59*
Ian Snell ('10)	4.0	134	17.8%	10.4%	1.12	4.80
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*