Franyer Herrera — OGILVIE

Franyer Herrera P Hudson Valley Renegades

Age 21 LHP 6'0" / 165 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.7 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103111vR 119

ERA4.52

FIP4.52

K%21.6%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%11.4%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$23M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Arb-3	$0.6M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	8	0	15	64	19	5	0	0%	1.9	20.2%	9.8%	10.4%	0.0%	2.40	2.63	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	8	0	15	64	19	5	0	0%	1.9	29.7%	7.8%	21.9%	0.0%	2.40	1.57	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	3	1	5	26	5	3	0	33%	1.8	19.2%	11.5%	7.7%	0.0%	3.38	2.94	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	3	1	5	26	5	3	0	33%	1.8	19.2%	11.5%	7.7%	0.0%	3.38	2.94	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	3	1	5	26	5	3	0	33%	1.8	19.2%	11.5%	7.7%	0.0%	3.38	2.91	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	12	11	49	203	64	17	1	92%	4.1	21.4%	10.5%	11.0%	0.4%	2.01	2.84	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	12	11	49	203	64	17	1	92%	4.1	21.4%	10.5%	11.0%	0.4%	2.01	2.84	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	12	11	49	203	64	17	1	92%	4.1	31.5%	8.4%	23.2%	0.5%	2.01	1.80	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	1	37	150	40	14	1	5%	1.7	17.5%	10.3%	7.1%	0.6%	1.70	3.27	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	1	37	150	40	14	1	5%	1.7	17.5%	10.3%	7.1%	0.6%	1.70	3.27	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	1	37	150	40	14	1	5%	1.7	26.7%	9.3%	17.3%	0.7%	1.70	2.42	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	21	17	92	404	100	50	17	81%	4.4	19.1%	14.2%	4.8%	5.3%	4.78	6.18	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	21	17	92	404	100	50	17	81%	4.4	19.1%	14.2%	4.8%	5.3%	4.78	6.18	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A+ RAW	NYY	21	17	92	404	100	50	17	81%	4.4	24.8%	12.4%	12.4%	4.2%	4.78	4.89	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	NYY	90	0	95	401	90	37	11	0%	1.1	22.5%	9.3%	13.2%	2.8%	4.37	4.30	+0.3
2028	23	MLB MLE	NYY	94	0	98	416	96	36	12	0%	1.0	23.2%	8.7%	14.5%	2.8%	4.24	4.15	+0.5
2029	24	MLB MLE	NYY	96	0	101	426	101	36	12	0%	1.1	23.7%	8.4%	15.3%	2.8%	4.14	4.06	+0.6
2030	25	MLB MLE	NYY	97	0	102	432	104	36	12	0%	1.1	24.0%	8.3%	15.7%	2.8%	4.07	4.01	+0.7
2031	26	MLB MLE	NYY	97	0	102	432	105	36	12	0%	1.1	24.2%	8.2%	16.0%	2.8%	4.02	3.99	+0.7
2032	27	MLB MLE	NYY	96	0	101	426	103	35	12	0%	1.1	24.2%	8.3%	15.9%	2.8%	4.02	4.03	+0.6
2033	28	MLB MLE	NYY	93	0	98	413	99	35	12	0%	1.1	24.1%	8.5%	15.6%	2.9%	4.08	4.11	+0.5
2034	29	MLB MLE	NYY	89	0	93	394	94	34	12	0%	1.0	23.8%	8.7%	15.2%	3.1%	4.18	4.24	+0.3
2035	30	MLB MLE	NYY	84	0	88	371	87	33	12	0%	1.0	23.5%	9.0%	14.5%	3.3%	4.32	4.42	+0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	NYY	45	0	47	198	45	18	6	0%	1.0	22.5%	9.3%	13.2%	3.0%	4.47	4.40	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	NYY	69	0	72	304	70	27	9	0%	1.0	23.2%	8.7%	14.5%	3.0%	4.34	4.25	+0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	NYY	80	0	84	355	84	30	10	0%	1.1	23.7%	8.4%	15.3%	3.0%	4.24	4.16	+0.5
2030	25	MLB CTX	NYY	86	0	90	380	91	31	11	0%	1.0	24.0%	8.3%	15.7%	2.9%	4.17	4.11	+0.6
2031	26	MLB CTX	NYY	89	0	93	393	95	32	12	0%	1.0	24.2%	8.2%	16.0%	2.9%	4.12	4.09	+0.6
2032	27	MLB CTX	NYY	89	0	93	393	95	33	12	0%	1.0	24.2%	8.3%	15.9%	3.0%	4.12	4.13	+0.6
2033	28	MLB CTX	NYY	88	0	92	388	93	33	12	0%	1.0	24.1%	8.5%	15.6%	3.1%	4.19	4.22	+0.5
2034	29	MLB CTX	NYY	85	0	89	376	90	33	12	0%	1.0	23.8%	8.7%	15.2%	3.3%	4.29	4.35	+0.3
2035	30	MLB CTX	NYY	79	0	83	350	82	31	12	0%	1.1	23.5%	9.0%	14.5%	3.5%	4.44	4.54	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		708	0	744	3139	746	268	96	0%	1.1	23.8%	8.5%	15.2%	3.1%	4.25	3.86	+6.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	201	72	26	0%	1.1	23.8%	8.5%	15.2%	3.1%	4.25	3.86	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		66	30	199	847	165	103	23	45%	3.0	19.4%	12.2%	7.2%	2.7%	3.30	4.50	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	30	200	851	165	104	23	45%	3.0	19.4%	12.2%	7.2%	2.7%	3.30	4.50	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Franyer Herrera (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	21.6%	10.2%	2.9%	—	4.17	23.1%	14.3%	294	-0.35	—	—	—
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	83
Matt Osterberg L 2021 · 3.88 FIP	22	SW	3.88	20.2%	12.3%	1.7%	.255	4.04	15.6%	9.3%	274	+0.16	3.70	294	83
Sonny Vargas L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	20	SP-	4.54	21.0%	10.1%	3.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	165	81
Jack Patterson L 2018 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP-	4.72	14.7%	8.0%	3.4%	.299	3.10	19.4%	7.9%	80	-1.62	3.10	127	78
Develson Aria L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	21	SP-	4.32	19.9%	12.2%	2.5%	.346	6.47	16.7%	-11.9%	47	+2.15	4.32	137	78
Taylor Hearn L 2016 · 3.99 FIP	21	SW	3.99	26.1%	10.6%	3.2%	.347	4.01	22.3%	11.7%	236	+0.02	3.72	572	78
Conner Menez L 2016 · 4.10 FIP	21	SP-	4.10	16.0%	8.5%	2.3%	.282	3.83	21.9%	10.7%	377	-0.27	2.03	503	78
Jordi Martinez L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	21	SP-	3.84	19.4%	10.0%	2.0%	.277	4.44	17.7%	6.6%	120	+0.60	3.15	205	78
Keyshawn Askew L 2022 · 3.32 FIP	22	SW	3.32	25.6%	12.2%	1.5%	.274	3.81	20.7%	5.5%	196	+0.49	3.32	262	77
Bryan Sammons L 2017 · 3.58 FIP	22	SP-	3.58	22.7%	10.5%	1.9%	.275	3.96	18.4%	8.4%	228	+0.38	3.58	688	77
Kyle Twomey L 2016 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP-	4.07	17.6%	10.5%	2.1%	.298	3.96	14.8%	6.9%	68	-0.11	3.96	141	76
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	75
Felipe De La Cruz L 2022 · 4.65 FIP	21	SP-	4.65	21.7%	14.5%	2.8%	.387	3.82	21.4%	10.1%	278	-0.83	3.11	397	75
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	75
Ryan Williamson L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	23	SP-	4.10	18.4%	5.9%	3.3%	.286	5.57	18.4%	5.8%	102	+1.47	4.10	123	75
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	74
Alex Cornwell L 2022 · 3.76 FIP	23	SW	3.76	18.9%	7.3%	2.4%	.382	3.81	16.2%	8.2%	311	+0.05	3.16	381	74
James Reeves L 2016 · 3.32 FIP	23	SW	3.32	21.9%	8.7%	1.8%	.237	3.30	23.0%	13.1%	146	-0.02	2.02	280	74
Jacob Lopez L 2018 · 3.66 FIP	20	SW	3.66	24.3%	7.9%	2.9%	.302	3.53	30.4%	21.6%	55	-0.13	3.49	534	74
Avery Short L 2022 · 4.82 FIP	21	SP-	4.82	20.1%	11.4%	3.6%	.346	4.72	15.0%	6.4%	271	-0.10	4.20	485	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.5	90	23.6%	8.6%	1.11	4.16
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88