Edwin Amparo
SS Delmarva Shorebirds| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | A/ROKBAL | 293 | .259/.405/.388 | 6 | 38 | 77 | — | .211/.315/.311 |
| 2025 | 20 | A+/A/ROK2 orgs | 342 | .203/.318/.320 | 5 | 36 | 34 | — | .154/.238/.235 |
| 2026 | 21 | A+/ABAL | 357 | .189/.314/.298 | 7 | 29 | 25 | — | .141/.232/.219 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBBAL | 467 | .154/.242/.236 | 6 | 20 | 38 | -0.7 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 23 | MLBBAL | 99 | .164/.252/.262 | 2 | 4 | 45 | -0.3 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBBAL | 167 | .171/.258/.277 | 3 | 6 | 51 | -0.4 |
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL BAL Orange | — | 193 | 166 | 41 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 37 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 247 | 346 | 361 | 707 | 114 | 302 | 19 | 10 | 321 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | FCL Orioles | — | 99 | 74 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 18 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 203 | 392 | 284 | 676 | 81 | 259 | 18 | 21 | 323 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 98 | 81 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 22 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 284 | 402 | 395 | 797 | 111 | 362 | 22 | 15 | 362 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Orioles | — | 195 | 151 | 37 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 39 | 37 | 2 | 25 | 9 | 245 | 406 | 384 | 790 | 139 | 292 | 19 | 20 | 360 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 59 | 53 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 226 | 305 | 434 | 739 | 208 | 278 | 25 | 8 | 327 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 239 | 200 | 39 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 70 | 3 | 23 | 8 | 195 | 321 | 300 | 621 | 105 | 283 | 29 | 14 | 289 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | FCL Orioles | — | 44 | 38 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 211 | 318 | 263 | 581 | 53 | 364 | 36 | 14 | 277 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Frederick Keys | — | 122 | 108 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 47 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 213 | 303 | 296 | 600 | 83 | 356 | 39 | 10 | 280 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 235 | 194 | 34 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 39 | 83 | 2 | 18 | 7 | 175 | 319 | 299 | 618 | 124 | 274 | 35 | 17 | 292 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL BAL Orange | — | 193 | 172 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 45 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 169 | 251 | 238 | 490 | 70 | 207 | 23 | 7 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 99 | 83 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 27 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 157 | 278 | 217 | 495 | 60 | 207 | 27 | 12 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 98 | 85 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 29 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 247 | 340 | 341 | 681 | 94 | 336 | 30 | 11 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 195 | 166 | 32 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 51 | 2 | 25 | 9 | 193 | 302 | 295 | 597 | 102 | 244 | 26 | 12 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 59 | 55 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 164 | 220 | 291 | 511 | 127 | 235 | 32 | 5 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 239 | 211 | 33 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 23 | 96 | 3 | 23 | 8 | 156 | 249 | 237 | 486 | 81 | 267 | 40 | 10 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 44 | 40 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 125 | 205 | 150 | 355 | 25 | 283 | 52 | 9 | 161 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 122 | 113 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 62 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 159 | 221 | 230 | 451 | 71 | 323 | 51 | 6 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 235 | 206 | 27 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 113 | 2 | 18 | 7 | 131 | 238 | 214 | 452 | 83 | 257 | 48 | 11 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL BAL Orange | — | 193 | 172 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 45 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 169 | 251 | 238 | 490 | 70 | 219 | 23 | 7 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL BAL Orange | — | 193 | 166 | 41 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 37 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 247 | 346 | 361 | 707 | 114 | 302 | 19 | 10 | 321 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 99 | 83 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 27 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 157 | 278 | 217 | 495 | 60 | 224 | 27 | 12 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Orioles | — | 99 | 74 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 18 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 203 | 392 | 284 | 676 | 81 | 259 | 18 | 21 | 323 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 293 | 251 | 53 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 35 | 80 | 3 | 38 | 15 | 211 | 315 | 311 | 626 | 100 | 282 | 27 | 12 | 281 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 293 | 232 | 60 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 54 | 59 | 3 | 38 | 15 | 259 | 405 | 388 | 793 | 129 | 316 | 20 | 18 | 361 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 342 | 306 | 48 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 139 | 4 | 36 | 14 | 157 | 241 | 248 | 490 | 92 | 270 | 41 | 9 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 342 | 291 | 59 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 45 | 101 | 4 | 36 | 14 | 203 | 318 | 320 | 637 | 117 | 292 | 30 | 13 | 294 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 357 | 319 | 45 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 34 | 174 | 4 | 29 | 10 | 141 | 232 | 219 | 452 | 78 | 286 | 49 | 10 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 357 | 302 | 57 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 51 | 130 | 4 | 29 | 10 | 189 | 314 | 298 | 612 | 109 | 303 | 36 | 14 | 288 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL BAL Orange | — | 193 | 172 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 45 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 169 | 251 | 238 | 490 | 70 | 207 | 23 | 7 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 99 | 85 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 27 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 153 | 278 | 212 | 490 | 59 | 207 | 27 | 12 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 293 | 253 | 53 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 35 | 80 | 3 | 38 | 15 | 209 | 315 | 308 | 623 | 99 | 275 | 27 | 12 | 281 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 342 | 305 | 48 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 139 | 4 | 36 | 14 | 157 | 241 | 249 | 490 | 92 | 264 | 41 | 9 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 357 | 316 | 45 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 34 | 174 | 4 | 29 | 10 | 142 | 232 | 222 | 454 | 79 | 280 | 49 | 10 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 293 | 253 | 53 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 35 | 80 | 3 | 38 | 15 | 209 | 315 | 308 | 623 | 99 | 275 | 27 | 12 | 281 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 342 | 305 | 48 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 139 | 4 | 36 | 14 | 157 | 241 | 249 | 490 | 92 | 264 | 41 | 9 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 357 | 316 | 45 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 34 | 174 | 4 | 29 | 10 | 142 | 232 | 222 | 454 | 79 | 280 | 49 | 10 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | BAL | 0% | 467 | 416 | 63 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 44 | 197 | 4 | 20 | 7 | 154 | 242 | 236 | 478 | 83 | 267 | 42 | 9 | 224 | 38 | -34 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +10 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | BAL | 34% | 289 | 257 | 42 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 118 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 162 | 250 | 256 | 506 | 95 | 269 | 41 | 9 | 235 | 45 | -19 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -0.9 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | BAL | 46% | 362 | 321 | 54 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 35 | 143 | 3 | 13 | 5 | 168 | 256 | 271 | 527 | 103 | 271 | 40 | 10 | 243 | 51 | -21 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | -0.9 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | BAL | 52% | 402 | 357 | 61 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 38 | 156 | 4 | 14 | 5 | 173 | 260 | 280 | 541 | 108 | 273 | 39 | 9 | 249 | 55 | -22 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +9 | -0.8 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | BAL | 54% | 425 | 377 | 66 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 41 | 161 | 4 | 14 | 5 | 176 | 263 | 287 | 550 | 110 | 274 | 38 | 10 | 253 | 57 | -22 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +9 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | BAL | 34% | 99 | 89 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 40 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 164 | 252 | 262 | 515 | 98 | 273 | 40 | 9 | 239 | 45 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | BAL | 46% | 167 | 147 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 66 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 171 | 258 | 277 | 536 | 107 | 275 | 40 | 10 | 247 | 51 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | BAL | 52% | 208 | 184 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 80 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 176 | 263 | 287 | 550 | 112 | 277 | 38 | 10 | 253 | 55 | -11 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +5 | -0.4 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | BAL | 54% | 230 | 204 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 87 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 179 | 266 | 294 | 560 | 114 | 278 | 38 | 10 | 256 | 57 | -12 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +5 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 704 | 624 | 108 | 18 | 4 | 14 | 67 | 273 | 7 | 24 | 9 | 173 | 261 | 282 | 543 | 109 | 276 | 39 | 10 | 251 | 47 | -39 | +1 | +0 | +8 | +15 | -1.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 576 | 100 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 62 | 252 | 6 | 22 | 8 | 174 | 261 | 285 | 546 | 111 | 277 | 39 | 10 | 251 | 47 | -36 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2972 | 2629 | 440 | 78 | 16 | 47 | 286 | 1131 | 34 | 182 | 72 | 167 | 258 | 263 | 521 | 95 | 268 | 38 | 10 | 237 | 47 | -99 | +4 | +0 | +18 | +37 | -4.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 575 | 95 | 17 | 3 | 10 | 63 | 247 | 7 | 40 | 16 | 165 | 256 | 257 | 513 | 92 | 265 | 38 | 10 | 237 | 47 | -38 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 235 PAwOBA .286 → .210 (−76)K% 35.3% → 48.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.32% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 48.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.60% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | — | 11.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.85% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | — | 19.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | — | 3.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.80% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | — | 1.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | — | 3.60% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .286 → .210; ISO .124 → .088; BABIP .274 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Frederick Keys · 122 PAwOBA .273 → .198 (−75)K% 38.5% → 50.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.52% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 50.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 5.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.64% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 1.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.51% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 27.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 4.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.28% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 2.92% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .273 → .198; ISO .083 → .061; BABIP .356 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 239 PAwOBA .281 → .224 (−57)K% 29.3% → 40.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.29% | ÷0.993 | ×1.360 | — | — | 40.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.81% | ÷1.007 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 9.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.26% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.77% | ÷0.998 | ×0.920 | ×1.000 | ×1.015 | 19.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.62% | ÷0.898 | ×0.830 | ×1.000 | ×1.015 | 4.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.31% | ÷0.904 | ×0.910 | ×1.000 | ×1.015 | 2.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.31% | ÷0.899 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 2.08% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 100, 2B 80, 3B 81, K 99, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.
Result: wOBA .281 → .224; ISO .105 → .090; BABIP .283 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 59 PAwOBA .318 → .237 (−81)K% 25.4% → 32.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.42% | ÷1.013 | ×1.310 | — | — | 32.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.47% | ÷0.944 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 5.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.69% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 1.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.79% | ÷0.990 | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 14.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.89% | ÷1.010 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 6.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.63% | ÷1.091 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 2.11% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.229 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 3.87% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 98, 2B 102, 3B 118, K 103, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .318 → .237; ISO .208 → .148; BABIP .278 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Orioles · 44 PAwOBA .271 → .161 (−110)K% 36.4% → 53.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.36% | ÷0.980 | ×1.440 | — | — | 53.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.64% | ÷1.020 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 8.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷0.997 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 22.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.033 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 6.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 99, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 96, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .271 → .161; ISO .053 → .028; BABIP .364 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Orioles · 195 PAwOBA .356 → .273 (−83)K% 19.0% → 26.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.97% | ÷1.036 | ×1.440 | — | — | 26.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.49% | ÷0.972 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 12.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.03% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷0.996 | ×0.820 | ×1.034 | ×0.995 | 17.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.89% | ÷0.901 | ×0.720 | ×1.034 | ×0.995 | 6.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.016 | ×0.720 | ×1.034 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.51% | ÷0.995 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 2.74% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 99, 2B 80, 3B 103, K 107, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.
Result: wOBA .356 → .273; ISO .139 → .115; BABIP .292 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 98 PAwOBA .357 → .298 (−59)K% 22.4% → 29.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.45% | ÷1.035 | ×1.360 | — | — | 29.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.31% | ÷0.997 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 10.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.02% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.51% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×1.010 | ×1.030 | 29.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.08% | ÷1.216 | ×0.830 | ×1.010 | ×1.030 | 3.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.943 | ×0.910 | ×1.010 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.39% | ÷0.952 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 2.93% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 98, 2B 143, 3B 89, K 107, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .357 → .298; ISO .111 → .088; BABIP .362 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Orioles · 99 PAwOBA .323 → .231 (−92)K% 18.2% → 26.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.18% | ÷0.972 | ×1.440 | — | — | 26.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 21.21% | ÷1.056 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 12.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.02% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.07% | ÷1.025 | ×0.820 | ×1.016 | ×1.008 | 13.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.71% | ÷0.960 | ×0.720 | ×1.016 | ×1.008 | 8.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.989 | ×0.720 | ×1.016 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.027 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 105, 2B 92, 3B 98, K 94, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .323 → .231; ISO .081 → .065; BABIP .259 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).