Viandel Pena
2B Erie SeaWolves| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | A+WSH | 316 | .276/.343/.346 | 0 | 20 | 47 | — | .220/.263/.275 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAWSH | 173 | .201/.262/.371 | 6 | 6 | 45 | — | .184/.227/.331 |
| 2026 | 25 | AADET | 116 | .204/.287/.320 | 2 | 4 | 36 | — | .168/.226/.243 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 26 | MLBDET | 2 | .195/.249/.298 | 0 | 0 | 56 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 27 | MLBDET | 35 | .197/.251/.301 | 1 | 1 | 57 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Nationals | — | 295 | 240 | 60 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 47 | 51 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 250 | 386 | 358 | 744 | 108 | 314 | 17 | 16 | 343 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | GCL Nationals | — | 154 | 131 | 47 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 31 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 359 | 455 | 481 | 935 | 122 | 470 | 20 | 14 | 419 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 331 | 295 | 63 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 34 | 88 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 214 | 295 | 305 | 600 | 92 | 289 | 27 | 10 | 275 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 111 | 97 | 22 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 31 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 227 | 312 | 340 | 652 | 113 | 333 | 28 | 11 | 291 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 352 | 296 | 68 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 48 | 95 | 0 | 30 | 3 | 230 | 337 | 361 | 699 | 132 | 313 | 27 | 14 | 312 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 419 | 346 | 75 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 67 | 88 | 1 | 18 | 7 | 217 | 345 | 275 | 620 | 58 | 288 | 21 | 16 | 293 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 316 | 283 | 78 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 28 | 71 | 1 | 20 | 2 | 276 | 343 | 346 | 689 | 71 | 368 | 22 | 9 | 311 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 173 | 159 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 46 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 201 | 262 | 371 | 633 | 170 | 243 | 27 | 8 | 280 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 116 | 103 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 204 | 287 | 320 | 607 | 117 | 271 | 28 | 10 | 276 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Nationals | — | 295 | 254 | 40 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 33 | 62 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 157 | 270 | 213 | 482 | 55 | 209 | 21 | 11 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Nationals | — | 154 | 139 | 34 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 45 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 245 | 318 | 324 | 642 | 79 | 356 | 29 | 8 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 331 | 307 | 53 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 124 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 173 | 228 | 244 | 472 | 72 | 268 | 37 | 7 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 111 | 101 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 41 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 178 | 239 | 257 | 496 | 79 | 284 | 37 | 7 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 352 | 310 | 55 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 34 | 134 | 0 | 30 | 3 | 177 | 259 | 271 | 530 | 94 | 276 | 38 | 10 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 419 | 373 | 67 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 40 | 119 | 1 | 18 | 7 | 180 | 261 | 228 | 489 | 48 | 258 | 28 | 10 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 316 | 295 | 65 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 95 | 1 | 20 | 2 | 220 | 263 | 275 | 537 | 54 | 320 | 30 | 5 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 173 | 163 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 56 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 184 | 227 | 331 | 558 | 147 | 240 | 32 | 5 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 116 | 107 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 39 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 168 | 226 | 243 | 469 | 75 | 248 | 34 | 7 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Nationals | — | 295 | 254 | 40 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 33 | 62 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 157 | 270 | 213 | 482 | 55 | 208 | 21 | 11 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Nationals | — | 295 | 240 | 60 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 47 | 51 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 250 | 386 | 358 | 744 | 108 | 314 | 17 | 16 | 343 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Nationals | — | 154 | 139 | 34 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 45 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 245 | 318 | 324 | 642 | 79 | 362 | 29 | 8 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Nationals | — | 154 | 131 | 47 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 31 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 359 | 455 | 481 | 935 | 122 | 470 | 20 | 14 | 419 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 331 | 307 | 53 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 124 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 173 | 228 | 244 | 472 | 72 | 276 | 37 | 7 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A RAW | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 331 | 295 | 63 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 34 | 88 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 214 | 295 | 305 | 600 | 92 | 289 | 27 | 10 | 275 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 463 | 411 | 72 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 42 | 174 | 0 | 34 | 7 | 175 | 252 | 268 | 519 | 92 | 288 | 38 | 9 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 463 | 393 | 90 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 60 | 126 | 0 | 34 | 7 | 229 | 331 | 356 | 687 | 127 | 318 | 27 | 13 | 307 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 419 | 373 | 67 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 40 | 119 | 1 | 18 | 7 | 180 | 261 | 228 | 489 | 48 | 262 | 28 | 10 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ RAW | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 419 | 346 | 75 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 67 | 88 | 1 | 18 | 7 | 217 | 345 | 275 | 620 | 58 | 288 | 21 | 16 | 293 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 316 | 295 | 65 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 95 | 1 | 20 | 2 | 220 | 263 | 275 | 537 | 54 | 325 | 30 | 5 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ RAW | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 316 | 283 | 78 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 28 | 71 | 1 | 20 | 2 | 276 | 343 | 346 | 689 | 71 | 368 | 22 | 9 | 311 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 173 | 163 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 56 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 184 | 227 | 331 | 558 | 147 | 245 | 32 | 5 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA RAW | Harrisburg Senators | — | 173 | 159 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 46 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 201 | 262 | 371 | 633 | 170 | 243 | 27 | 8 | 280 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 116 | 107 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 39 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 168 | 226 | 243 | 469 | 75 | 250 | 34 | 7 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA RAW | Erie SeaWolves | — | 116 | 103 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 204 | 287 | 320 | 607 | 117 | 271 | 28 | 10 | 276 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Nationals | — | 295 | 254 | 40 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 33 | 62 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 157 | 270 | 213 | 482 | 55 | 209 | 21 | 11 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Nationals | — | 154 | 138 | 34 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 45 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 246 | 318 | 326 | 644 | 80 | 356 | 29 | 8 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 331 | 306 | 53 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 124 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 173 | 228 | 245 | 473 | 72 | 268 | 37 | 7 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 463 | 418 | 72 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 42 | 174 | 0 | 34 | 7 | 172 | 252 | 263 | 515 | 91 | 278 | 38 | 9 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 419 | 375 | 67 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 40 | 119 | 1 | 18 | 7 | 179 | 261 | 227 | 488 | 48 | 258 | 28 | 10 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 316 | 296 | 65 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 95 | 1 | 20 | 2 | 220 | 263 | 274 | 536 | 54 | 320 | 30 | 5 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 173 | 162 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 56 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 185 | 227 | 333 | 560 | 148 | 240 | 32 | 5 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 116 | 107 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 39 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 168 | 226 | 243 | 469 | 75 | 248 | 34 | 7 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 316 | 296 | 65 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 95 | 1 | 20 | 2 | 220 | 263 | 274 | 536 | 54 | 320 | 30 | 5 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 173 | 162 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 56 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 185 | 227 | 333 | 560 | 148 | 240 | 32 | 5 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 116 | 107 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 39 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 168 | 226 | 243 | 469 | 75 | 248 | 34 | 7 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | DET | 2% | 200 | 185 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 56 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 199 | 252 | 305 | 557 | 106 | 262 | 28 | 6 | 251 | 56 | -11 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | DET | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 195 | 249 | 298 | 547 | 103 | 258 | 50 | 0 | 246 | 56 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | DET | 27% | 130 | 120 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 36 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 200 | 255 | 308 | 562 | 108 | 263 | 28 | 6 | 253 | 57 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +3 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | DET | 27% | 35 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 197 | 251 | 301 | 552 | 104 | 259 | 29 | 6 | 249 | 57 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 35 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 182 | 229 | 303 | 532 | 121 | 227 | 29 | 6 | 249 | 43 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 613 | 112 | 19 | 0 | 19 | 37 | 186 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 183 | 229 | 307 | 536 | 124 | 228 | 29 | 6 | 249 | 43 | -33 | +4 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2481 | 2248 | 417 | 78 | 22 | 16 | 196 | 773 | 11 | 107 | 28 | 185 | 254 | 261 | 515 | 76 | 273 | 31 | 8 | 232 | 43 | -11 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +5 | -0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 109 | 20 | 6 | 4 | 51 | 203 | 3 | 28 | 7 | 185 | 253 | 260 | 513 | 75 | 273 | 31 | 8 | 232 | 43 | -34 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAErie SeaWolves · 116 PAwOBA .271 → .221 (−50)K% 27.6% → 33.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.59% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.34% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 7.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.31% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.997 | ×0.988 | 17.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.997 | ×0.988 | 7.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×0.997 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 2.17% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .271 → .221; ISO .117 → .091; BABIP .271 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAHarrisburg Senators · 173 PAwOBA .272 → .235 (−38)K% 26.6% → 32.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.59% | ÷0.997 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.51% | ÷0.967 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 5.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.81% | ÷1.009 | ×0.970 | ×1.034 | ×0.998 | 16.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.42% | ÷0.887 | ×0.860 | ×1.034 | ×0.998 | 4.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.77% | ÷0.913 | ×0.950 | ×1.034 | ×0.998 | 1.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.31% | ÷0.963 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 4.29% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 102, 2B 77, 3B 83, K 99, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.
Result: wOBA .272 → .235; ISO .170 → .142; BABIP .243 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 316 PAwOBA .303 → .237 (−66)K% 22.5% → 30.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.47% | ÷0.974 | ×1.310 | — | — | 30.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.86% | ÷1.015 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.988 | 5.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.32% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.988 | 0.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.25% | ÷1.008 | ×0.870 | ×1.027 | ×0.988 | 25.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.66% | ÷0.942 | ×0.780 | ×1.027 | ×0.988 | 4.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.89% | ÷0.984 | ×0.850 | ×1.027 | ×0.988 | 1.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.016 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 102, 2B 88, 3B 97, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .303 → .237; ISO .071 → .058; BABIP .368 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 419 PAwOBA .288 → .225 (−63)K% 21.0% → 28.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.00% | ÷0.973 | ×1.310 | — | — | 28.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.99% | ÷1.005 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 9.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.24% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 0.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.09% | ÷0.981 | ×0.870 | ×1.010 | ×0.998 | 19.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.20% | ÷0.894 | ×0.780 | ×1.010 | ×0.998 | 5.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.78% | ÷0.913 | ×0.850 | ×1.010 | ×0.998 | 0.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.913 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 96, 2B 79, 3B 83, K 95, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .288 → .225; ISO .058 → .052; BABIP .288 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AFredericksburg Nationals · 352 PAwOBA .307 → .236 (−71)K% 27.0% → 38.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.99% | ÷0.966 | ×1.360 | — | — | 38.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.64% | ÷0.970 | ×0.690 | — | — | 9.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.89% | ÷0.986 | ×0.920 | ×0.957 | — | 20.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.47% | ÷0.933 | ×0.830 | ×0.957 | — | 4.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.49% | ÷0.910 | ×0.910 | ×0.957 | — | 2.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.99% | ÷1.074 | ×0.800 | — | — | 2.22% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 97, 2B 87, 3B 82, K 93, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.
Result: wOBA .307 → .236; ISO .132 → .100; BABIP .313 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 111 PAwOBA .284 → .214 (−70)K% 27.9% → 36.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.93% | ÷0.998 | ×1.310 | — | — | 36.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.81% | ÷0.963 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 6.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.21% | ÷0.990 | ×0.870 | ×0.999 | ×1.012 | 18.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.58% | ÷0.974 | ×0.780 | ×0.999 | ×1.012 | 6.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.999 | ×1.012 | 3.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.114 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 98, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 100, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .284 → .214; ISO .113 → .084; BABIP .333 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AFredericksburg Nationals · 331 PAwOBA .269 → .206 (−63)K% 26.6% → 37.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.59% | ÷0.967 | ×1.360 | — | — | 37.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.27% | ÷1.100 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 6.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.006 | ×0.920 | ×1.008 | ×1.015 | 20.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.31% | ÷0.942 | ×0.830 | ×1.008 | ×1.015 | 4.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.97% | ÷0.901 | ×0.910 | ×1.008 | ×1.015 | 1.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.93% | ÷1.159 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.35% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 101, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 93, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .269 → .206; ISO .092 → .068; BABIP .289 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ROKGCL Nationals · 154 PAwOBA .409 → .283 (−126)K% 20.1% → 29.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.13% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 28.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 8.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.30% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 34.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 26.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 6.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 2.07% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .409 → .283; ISO .122 → .080; BABIP .470 → .356. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).