Raimy Rodriguez — OGILVIE

Raimy Rodriguez P Asheville Tourists

+0.0 WAR

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 2.2 · 2030

ERA5.12

FIP5.12

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%20.3%

BB%14.8%

K-BB%5.4%

IP93

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.2peak

2030

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL HOU Orange	13	4	30	132	32	14	0	16.5%	13.3%	0.0%	3.94	3.39	+0.5
2023	18	ROK	FCL Astros	10	3	32	147	46	25	1	21.3%	21.3%	0.6%	5.12	4.33	+0.2
2024	19	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	25	10	83	419	90	76	2	15.9%	21.4%	0.6%	6.53	4.78	+0.3
2025	20	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	26	20	93	415	94	73	8	16.8%	20.8%	2.5%	4.95	5.68	-0.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A+	Asheville Tourists	1	0	2	13	2	2	1	—	—	—	37.80	—	—
ROS	21	MLB	HOU	17	17	93	391	79	58	11	20.3%	14.8%	2.7%	5.12	5.12	+0.1
2026 Total	21	MLB	HOU	—	—	94	404	81	60	12	20.1%	14.8%	2.8%	5.70	5.03	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	22	MLB	HOU	22	22	119	504	108	64	13	21.4%	12.7%	2.7%	4.85	4.73	+0.8
2028	23	MLB	HOU	26	26	144	607	135	69	16	22.2%	11.3%	2.6%	4.62	4.49	+1.3
2029	24	MLB	HOU	30	30	163	690	157	72	18	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	4.43	4.32	+1.8
2030	25	MLB	HOU	32	32	177	749	173	74	20	23.1%	9.9%	2.6%	4.30	4.22	+2.2
2031	26	MLB	HOU	32	32	177	749	175	74	20	23.3%	9.9%	2.6%	4.24	4.20	+2.2
2032	27	MLB	HOU	32	32	176	744	174	73	20	23.3%	9.9%	2.6%	4.22	4.21	+2.2
2033	28	MLB	HOU	32	32	174	733	171	73	20	23.3%	9.9%	2.7%	4.23	4.23	+2.1
2034	29	MLB	HOU	31	31	170	716	166	72	19	23.2%	10.0%	2.7%	4.26	4.28	+2.0
2035	30	MLB	HOU	30	30	164	695	159	70	19	23.0%	10.1%	2.8%	4.31	4.34	+1.8
2036	31	MLB	HOU	29	29	159	670	152	69	19	22.7%	10.2%	2.8%	4.37	4.42	+1.6
2037	32	MLB	HOU	28	28	152	643	144	67	19	22.4%	10.4%	2.9%	4.45	4.50	+1.4
2038	33	MLB	HOU	26	26	146	614	136	65	18	22.1%	10.6%	3.0%	4.54	4.60	+1.2
2039	34	MLB	HOU	25	25	138	584	127	63	18	21.8%	10.8%	3.1%	4.64	4.71	+0.9
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			75	37	238	1126	191	227	15	17.0%	20.1%	1.3%	5.63	4.92	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—			63	31	200	945	160	190	13	17.0%	20.1%	1.3%	5.63	4.92	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Raimy Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.12	20.3%	14.8%	2.7%	—	4.49	22.2%	10.8%	426	-0.63	—	—	—
Hunter Parks R 2026 · 5.29 FIP	21	SP-	5.29	18.7%	16.8%	3.0%	.312	5.29	17.8%	-0.6%	163	+0.00	5.01	246	93
Jacob Watters R 2027 · 4.93 FIP	22	SP-	4.93	18.3%	17.1%	2.2%	.319	4.39	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.54	3.86	165	92
José Leclerc R 2026 · 5.03 FIP	21	SP-	5.03	16.8%	17.0%	2.2%	.304	3.16	30.0%	15.1%	184	-1.87	1.47	527	90
R.J. Freure R 2027 · 5.14 FIP	22	SP-	5.14	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	5.83	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.69	5.14	196	90
Zack Bird R 2026 · 4.55 FIP	21	SP-	4.55	18.1%	15.6%	1.8%	.281	5.34	10.8%	-7.7%	48	+0.79	4.55	149	89
J.P. Massey R 2028 · 4.96 FIP	23	SP-	4.96	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.11	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.15	4.70	195	87
Chris Cortez R 2027 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP-	4.71	17.1%	18.8%	1.2%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	114	86
Garrett Cave R 2027 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP-	4.99	16.4%	14.9%	2.5%	.301	4.97	17.8%	-8.8%	40	-0.02	4.97	156	86
James McArthur R 2027 · 5.06 FIP	22	SP-	5.06	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.44	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.62	3.54	352	86
Hayden Merda R 2028 · 5.20 FIP	23	SP-	5.20	16.1%	15.3%	2.8%	.325	4.97	21.5%	6.1%	54	-0.23	4.97	150	86
Alex Santos II R 2026 · 6.07 FIP	21	SP-	6.07	16.8%	17.5%	4.0%	.335	5.62	21.1%	4.0%	52	-0.45	4.49	260	85
Jacob Cravey R 2027 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP-	5.20	14.4%	18.0%	1.9%	.333	4.99	15.7%	3.1%	92	-0.21	4.99	176	85
Keythel Key R 2026 · 5.23 FIP	21	SP-	5.23	18.7%	15.2%	3.2%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.98	237	85
Jefferson Medina R 2026 · 5.16 FIP	21	SP-	5.16	13.1%	16.1%	2.1%	.279	3.89	14.1%	2.6%	187	-1.27	3.56	350	83
Jason Savacool R 2027 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP-	4.79	14.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.275	4.29	16.6%	5.0%	102	-0.50	4.29	199	83
Max Bain R 2028 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP-	5.17	20.5%	15.2%	3.4%	.291	6.72	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.55	5.17	174	83
Kyle Johnston R 2027 · 4.52 FIP	22	SP-	4.52	16.2%	13.8%	1.9%	.290	4.08	16.4%	4.5%	194	-0.44	3.80	395	83
Luke Hayden R 2027 · 5.35 FIP	22	SP-	5.35	13.5%	18.4%	1.9%	.255	—	—	—	—	—	5.35	101	83
Cobi Johnson R 2028 · 5.57 FIP	23	SP-	5.57	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.55	19.9%	1.4%	41	-1.02	4.55	140	83
Juaron Watts-Brown R 2027 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP-	5.24	21.8%	15.4%	3.7%	.294	4.20	24.4%	13.6%	124	-1.04	4.20	227	82

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+2.2	$20M	+$19M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.2	$20M	+$20M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+2.2	$21M	+$20M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+2.1	$21M	+$18M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+2.0	$20M	+$17M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+1.8	$19M	+$15M
Totals		$12M		$121M	+$109M