Juan Reynoso
P
Beloit Sky Carp
Age 22
RHP
6'0" / 165 lbs
A+
peak 0.2 · 2030
2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 45 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140131vR 121
ERA5.37
FIP5.37
K%18.2%
BB%15.3%
K-BB%2.9%
ROS IP45
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 83 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 7 | 1 | 15 | 69 | 17 | 9 | 1 | 14% | 2.1 | 16.8% | 16.3% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 4.80 | 4.37 | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 7 | 1 | 15 | 69 | 17 | 9 | 1 | 14% | 2.1 | 24.6% | 13.0% | 11.6% | 1.4% | 4.80 | 3.50 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 9 | 36 | 168 | 32 | 26 | 7 | 75% | 3.0 | 15.4% | 17.2% | -1.9% | 6.5% | 5.80 | 7.58 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 9 | 36 | 168 | 32 | 26 | 7 | 75% | 3.0 | 19.0% | 15.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.80 | 6.04 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 6 | 44 | 220 | 52 | 52 | 3 | 30% | 2.2 | 17.1% | 28.3% | -11.1% | 2.1% | 8.24 | 6.38 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 6 | 44 | 220 | 52 | 52 | 3 | 30% | 2.2 | 23.6% | 23.6% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 8.24 | 5.18 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 37 | 0 | 63 | 293 | 65 | 48 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 16.4% | 19.3% | -2.9% | 1.7% | 4.29 | 5.10 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 37 | 0 | 63 | 293 | 65 | 48 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 22.2% | 16.4% | 5.8% | 1.0% | 4.29 | 3.94 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 57 | 252 | 63 | 26 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.5% | 12.0% | 7.5% | 1.1% | 3.34 | 3.59 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 57 | 252 | 63 | 26 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.0% | 10.3% | 14.7% | 0.8% | 3.34 | 2.71 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 30 | 0 | 38 | 176 | 51 | 30 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.3% | 19.6% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 5.17 | 5.65 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | MIA | 42 | 0 | 45 | 188 | 34 | 29 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.2% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 5.37 | 5.37 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18.2% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 5.37 | 5.37 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 83 | 364 | 85 | 59 | 10 | — | — | 23.4% | 16.1% | 7.3% | 2.8% | 5.28 | 5.50 | -0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 18.2% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 5.37 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | MIA | 44 | 0 | 46 | 195 | 38 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.5% | 13.4% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 5.11 | 5.01 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | MIA | 45 | 0 | 48 | 201 | 41 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 12.2% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 4.89 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 42 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 4.73 | 4.64 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | MIA | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 19 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 13.4% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 5.11 | 5.01 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | MIA | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 28 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 12.2% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 4.89 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 34 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 4.73 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 91 | 0 | 95 | 403 | 82 | 49 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 12.2% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 4.88 | 4.40 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 172 | 103 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 12.2% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 4.88 | 4.40 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 149 | 16 | 252 | 1178 | 212 | 224 | 30 | 11% | 1.7 | 18.0% | 19.0% | -1.0% | 2.6% | 5.14 | 5.41 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 118 | 13 | 200 | 934 | 168 | 177 | 24 | 11% | 1.7 | 18.0% | 19.0% | -1.0% | 2.6% | 5.14 | 5.41 | -0.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juan Reynoso (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.37 | 18.2% | 15.3% | 2.7% | — | 4.81 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 142 | -0.56 | — | — | — |
| Stefan Raeth R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.79 | 18.0% | 15.4% | 2.3% | .309 | 4.76 | 17.5% | 8.3% | 124 | -0.03 | 4.36 | 173 | 92 |
| Junior Rincon R 2027 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.93 | 17.8% | 13.8% | 2.9% | .318 | 3.77 | 17.6% | 5.1% | 82 | -1.16 | 3.50 | 113 | 91 |
| Ben Hecht R 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.55 | 18.3% | 14.4% | 2.1% | .265 | 4.56 | 22.7% | 9.8% | 58 | +0.01 | 4.55 | 155 | 90 |
| Ocean Gabonia R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.94 | 15.4% | 14.6% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.31 | 19.1% | 10.9% | 91 | -1.63 | 2.79 | 144 | 90 |
| Fabian Anguamea R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.91 | 16.6% | 15.2% | 2.3% | .295 | 4.45 | 15.8% | 1.8% | 96 | -0.46 | 3.94 | 164 | 90 |
| Tyler Smith R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.30 | 17.8% | 14.3% | 3.4% | .329 | 4.45 | 19.8% | 7.8% | 94 | -0.85 | 3.48 | 121 | 90 |
| Adam Ravenelle R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.37 | 19.6% | 14.8% | 1.9% | .322 | 4.84 | 17.1% | 4.3% | 130 | +0.47 | 4.37 | 165 | 90 |
| James Acuna R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.89 | 21.3% | 17.0% | 2.6% | .302 | 4.23 | 19.4% | 4.6% | 60 | -0.66 | 4.23 | 107 | 89 |
| Cole Hillier R 2027 · 4.69 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.69 | 16.9% | 14.7% | 2.1% | .297 | 4.61 | 18.4% | 4.4% | 95 | -0.08 | 3.72 | 153 | 89 |
| Cory Thompson R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.42 | 15.2% | 15.7% | 2.9% | .289 | 4.28 | 16.3% | 10.6% | 131 | -1.14 | 3.48 | 218 | 89 |
| Audry Lugo R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.79 | 17.6% | 15.8% | 2.1% | .333 | 5.73 | 13.7% | -2.6% | 39 | +0.94 | 4.05 | 113 | 89 |
| Miguel Alfonseca R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.85 | 20.1% | 16.4% | 2.5% | .354 | 6.00 | 11.6% | -3.8% | 56 | +1.15 | 4.24 | 123 | 87 |
| Jhonny Polanco R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.76 | 18.9% | 14.2% | 2.7% | .283 | 3.92 | 21.3% | 5.7% | 48 | -0.84 | 3.92 | 116 | 87 |
| Matt Brill R 2027 · 4.94 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.94 | 20.8% | 16.3% | 2.8% | .248 | 3.84 | 19.4% | 4.9% | 60 | -1.10 | 3.75 | 161 | 87 |
| Grayson Thurman R 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.38 | 19.5% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .319 | 4.85 | 19.9% | 10.5% | 87 | +0.47 | 4.38 | 132 | 87 |
| Cayne Ueckert R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.26 | 17.5% | 14.9% | 1.4% | .306 | 5.89 | 22.7% | 5.0% | 78 | +1.63 | 3.88 | 205 | 86 |
| Kasey Ford R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.68 | 20.3% | 14.5% | 2.6% | .310 | 4.31 | 21.9% | 5.8% | 98 | -0.37 | 2.53 | 114 | 86 |
| Miguel Guerrero R 2026 · 5.58 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.58 | 17.0% | 13.9% | 3.9% | .324 | 4.49 | 18.1% | 7.8% | 57 | -1.09 | 4.49 | 171 | 86 |
| Brett Lockwood R 2028 · 5.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.51 | 16.2% | 15.5% | 3.3% | .312 | 4.61 | 11.0% | -6.3% | 79 | -0.90 | 4.29 | 132 | 86 |
| Jason García R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.52 | 16.8% | 12.5% | 2.3% | .241 | 4.33 | 13.2% | 1.2% | 218 | -0.19 | 4.13 | 356 | 86 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 47 | 19.8% | 13.0% | 1.04 | 5.02 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |