Juan Reynoso — OGILVIE

Juan Reynoso P Beloit Sky Carp

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 165 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 44 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.51

FIP5.51

K%18.2%

BB%16.5%

K-BB%1.8%

ROS IP45

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	7	1	15	69	17	9	1	14%	2.1	16.8%	16.3%	0.4%	1.5%	4.80	4.55	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	7	1	15	69	17	9	1	14%	2.1	24.6%	13.0%	11.6%	1.4%	4.80	3.50	—
2022	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	9	36	168	32	26	7	75%	3.0	15.4%	17.2%	-1.9%	6.3%	5.80	7.42	—
2022	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	9	36	168	32	26	7	75%	3.0	19.0%	15.5%	3.6%	4.2%	5.80	6.04	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	6	44	220	52	52	3	30%	2.2	17.1%	28.3%	-11.1%	1.9%	8.24	6.29	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	6	44	220	52	52	3	30%	2.2	17.1%	28.3%	-11.1%	1.9%	8.24	6.29	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	6	44	220	52	52	3	30%	2.2	23.6%	23.6%	0.0%	1.4%	8.24	5.18	—
2024	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	37	0	63	293	65	48	3	0%	1.7	16.4%	19.3%	-2.9%	1.5%	4.29	4.98	—
2024	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	37	0	63	293	65	48	3	0%	1.7	16.4%	19.3%	-2.9%	1.5%	4.29	4.98	—
2024	20	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	37	0	63	293	65	48	3	0%	1.7	22.2%	16.4%	5.8%	1.0%	4.29	3.94	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	57	252	63	26	2	0%	1.3	19.5%	12.0%	7.5%	1.2%	3.34	3.61	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	57	252	63	26	2	0%	1.3	19.5%	12.0%	7.5%	1.2%	3.34	3.61	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	57	252	63	26	2	0%	1.3	25.0%	10.3%	14.7%	0.8%	3.34	2.71	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	45	0	62	277	88	47	7	0%	1.4	23.2%	19.9%	3.3%	3.5%	5.11	5.59	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	45	0	62	277	88	47	7	0%	1.4	23.2%	19.9%	3.3%	3.5%	5.11	5.59	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	MIA	42	0	55	249	75	43	7	0%	1.3	30.1%	17.3%	12.9%	2.8%	5.07	4.29	—
2026	22	AA RAW	MIA	3	0	7	28	13	4	0	0%	2.2	46.4%	14.3%	32.1%	0.0%	5.40	0.99	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIA	60	0	63	265	52	38	7	0%	1.0	19.5%	14.3%	5.2%	2.7%	5.23	5.12	-0.4
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIA	61	0	64	271	55	35	7	0%	1.1	20.3%	12.8%	7.5%	2.7%	4.98	4.86	-0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIA	62	0	65	275	57	33	7	0%	1.0	20.8%	11.9%	8.9%	2.7%	4.80	4.70	-0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIA	62	0	65	275	58	32	7	0%	1.0	21.1%	11.8%	9.3%	2.7%	4.72	4.67	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	MIA	30	0	31	131	25	19	4	0%	1.0	19.5%	14.3%	5.2%	2.7%	5.23	5.12	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIA	43	0	45	190	39	24	5	0%	1.0	20.3%	12.8%	7.5%	2.7%	4.98	4.86	-0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIA	50	0	53	224	47	27	6	0%	1.1	20.8%	11.9%	8.9%	2.7%	4.80	4.70	-0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIA	54	0	57	241	51	28	6	0%	1.1	21.1%	11.8%	9.3%	2.7%	4.72	4.67	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		177	0	186	784	161	98	21	0%	1.0	20.6%	12.5%	8.1%	2.7%	4.89	4.42	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	173	106	23	0%	1.1	20.6%	12.5%	8.1%	2.7%	4.89	4.42	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		164	16	276	1279	237	244	33	10%	1.7	18.5%	19.1%	-0.6%	2.6%	5.13	5.36	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		119	12	200	928	172	177	24	10%	1.7	18.5%	19.1%	-0.6%	2.6%	5.13	5.36	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Reynoso (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.51	18.2%	16.5%	2.7%	—	4.89	20.2%	7.2%	192	-0.62	—	—	—
Stefan Raeth R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	18.0%	15.4%	2.0%	.309	4.73	17.5%	8.3%	124	+0.11	4.51	173	91
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	90
Cory Thompson R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	22	SU	5.42	15.2%	15.7%	2.9%	.289	4.34	16.3%	10.6%	131	-1.08	3.59	218	90
Fabian Anguamea R 2016 · 5.11 FIP	22	SU	5.11	16.6%	15.2%	2.7%	.295	4.53	15.8%	1.8%	96	-0.58	3.99	164	90
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	89
Audry Lugo R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	22	SU	4.82	17.6%	15.8%	2.2%	.333	5.76	13.7%	-2.6%	39	+0.94	4.05	113	89
Will McAffer R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	22	SU	4.68	20.4%	18.1%	1.8%	.270	5.96	18.5%	-4.0%	77	+1.28	4.68	133	88
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	88
Adam Ravenelle R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	22	SU	4.32	19.6%	14.8%	1.8%	.322	5.06	17.1%	4.3%	130	+0.74	4.32	165	88
Miguel Alfonseca R 2022 · 4.78 FIP	22	SU	4.78	20.1%	16.4%	2.4%	.354	5.73	11.6%	-3.8%	56	+0.95	4.19	123	87
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	87
Ben Hecht R 2018 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	18.3%	14.4%	1.9%	.265	4.51	22.7%	9.8%	58	+0.12	4.39	155	87
Matt Brill R 2018 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	20.8%	16.3%	2.7%	.248	3.89	19.4%	4.9%	60	-1.01	3.73	161	87
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	87
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	87
Roberto Espinosa R 2015 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.9%	18.6%	1.9%	.273	4.43	14.8%	2.2%	77	-0.49	4.32	117	86
Miguel Guerrero R 2022 · 5.35 FIP	22	SU	5.35	17.0%	13.9%	3.5%	.324	4.56	18.1%	7.8%	57	-0.79	4.56	171	86
Junior Montero R 2021 · 4.54 FIP	22	SU	4.54	18.5%	15.8%	1.8%	.319	5.31	20.2%	-3.7%	32	+0.77	4.54	100	86
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	86
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.17	18.2%	4.9%	93	-0.19	3.20	213	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	60	20.1%	13.3%	1.04	5.02
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82