Alejandro Rios — OGILVIE

Alejandro RiosC ACL D-backs

Age 21 R/R 5'11" / 150 lbs ROK HR -11% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION81 act + 7 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†47

AVG/OBP/SLG.143 / .143 / .143

PA7

HR0

K%29

BB%7

BABIP296

ISO76

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL D-backs Red	—	69	62	6	2	0	0	5	17	2	0	1	97	188	129	317	32	133	25	7	162	-5	-9	-0	—	—	+1	-0.8
2023	18	ROK	DSL Arizona Red	—	71	57	9	2	0	0	7	15	4	0	1	158	294	193	487	35	200	21	10	236	46	-5	-0	—	—	+2	-0.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs Red	—	69	64	4	1	0	0	3	25	2	0	1	62	130	78	209	16	105	36	4	106	-42	-12	-0	—	—	+1	-1.1
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	71	60	7	2	0	0	4	22	4	0	1	117	221	150	371	33	151	31	6	171	2	-8	-0	—	—	+2	-0.7
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs Red	—	69	64	4	1	0	0	3	25	2	0	1	62	130	78	209	16	103	36	4	106	-42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs Red	—	69	62	6	2	0	0	5	17	2	0	1	97	188	129	317	32	133	25	7	162	-42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	71	60	7	2	0	0	4	22	4	0	1	117	221	150	371	33	171	31	6	171	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	—	71	57	9	2	0	0	7	15	4	0	1	158	294	193	487	35	200	21	10	236	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs Red	—	69	64	4	1	0	0	3	25	2	0	1	62	130	78	209	16	105	36	4	106	-42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	71	63	7	2	0	0	4	22	4	0	1	111	221	143	363	32	151	31	6	171	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	71	63	7	2	0	0	4	22	4	0	1	111	221	143	363	32	151	31	6	171	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	21	ROK MLE	ARI	—	81	73	10	2	0	0	6	40	2	1	0	137	222	164	387	27	303	49	7	191	16	-8	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	ROK RAW	ARI	—	47	39	12	3	0	0	8	10	0	1	0	308	426	385	810	77	414	21	17	374	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	21	A RAW	ARI	—	34	30	3	0	0	0	2	19	2	0	0	100	206	100	306		273	56	6	164	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	21	ROK MLE	ARI	0%	7	7	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	143	143	143	286		290	29	0	238	47	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	21	ROK MLE	ARI	—	88	80	11	2	0	0	6	42	2	1	0	138	216	163	378	25	289	48	7	195	18	-9	+0	+0	+2	+2	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	ARI	34%	155	141	28	5	1	2	11	52	2	2	0	199	266	291	557	92	293	34	7	252	56	-8	+0	+0	+3	+3	-0.2
2028	23	MLB MLE	ARI	48%	279	252	50	9	1	4	21	91	4	3	1	198	271	290	560	91	294	33	8	260	62	-13	+0	+0	+5	+6	-0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	ARI	53%	369	332	68	12	2	6	28	118	6	4	1	205	279	307	586	102	295	32	8	266	66	-15	+0	+0	+7	+8	0.0
2030	25	MLB MLE	ARI	55%	422	380	78	14	2	7	32	134	7	4	1	205	279	308	587	103	295	32	8	269	68	-16	+0	+0	+8	+9	0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	ARI	56%	455	410	84	15	2	8	35	144	7	4	1	205	279	310	589	105	295	32	8	271	69	-17	+0	+0	+8	+10	0.2
2032	27	MLB MLE	ARI	55%	471	425	87	16	2	8	36	150	7	5	1	205	278	308	586	104	295	32	8	271	69	-17	+1	+0	+8	+10	0.2
2033	28	MLB MLE	ARI	55%	476	429	88	16	2	8	37	152	7	4	1	205	279	308	587	103	294	32	8	270	69	-18	+0	-1	+8	+10	0.1
2034	29	MLB MLE	ARI	53%	472	425	87	16	2	8	37	151	7	4	1	205	279	308	588	104	293	32	8	268	67	-18	+0	-1	+8	+10	-0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	ARI	34%	53	48	10	2	0	1	4	18	1	1	0	208	283	312	596	104	299	34	8	243	56	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	ARI	48%	135	122	26	5	1	2	10	44	2	1	0	213	284	320	603	107	300	33	7	252	62	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	ARI	53%	195	175	37	7	1	3	15	62	3	2	1	211	285	314	599	103	301	32	8	258	66	-8	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	ARI	55%	231	208	43	8	1	4	17	73	4	2	1	207	279	312	592	106	301	32	7	261	68	-9	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.0
2031	26	MLB CTX	ARI	56%	253	228	47	9	1	4	19	80	4	2	1	206	279	307	586	101	301	32	8	262	69	-9	+0	+0	+5	+5	0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	ARI	55%	259	233	48	9	1	4	20	82	4	3	1	206	280	305	585	99	301	32	8	262	69	-9	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.1
2033	28	MLB CTX	ARI	55%	260	234	48	9	1	4	20	83	4	2	1	205	279	303	582	98	300	32	8	261	69	-10	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.0
2034	29	MLB CTX	ARI	53%	252	226	47	9	1	4	20	81	4	2	1	208	284	310	594	102	299	32	8	259	67	-10	+0	-1	+4	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1638	1474	306	58	7	26	125	523	26	15	6	208	281	309	591	102	300	32	8	259	63	-64	+1	-1	+29	+35	0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	121	23	3	10	50	208	10	6	2	207	281	308	588	101	300	32	8	259	63	-25	+0	-0	+12	+14	0.0
Career	—	MLE		—	3246	2925	582	106	14	51	244	1041	53	30	9	199	273	297	570	98	287	32	8	262	63	-122	+3	-2	+55	+67	0.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	586	116	21	3	10	49	208	11	6	2	198	272	295	568	97	286	32	8	262	63	-26	+1	-0	+12	+14	0.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#3John McDonaldlast yr '14 career totals — 13 seasons, 2,596 PA	3.9	2,596	28	34	233	273	324	+20	+54	4.2	5.1
/162	664	7	9	+5.0	+13.9	1.1	pk7: 6
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.6	1,707	28	16	206	276	309	+30	+20	1.2	1.3
/162	664	11	6	+11.9	+7.8	0.5	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alejandro Rios (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	185/256/253	68	290	1	1	35%	7%	47	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Steven Baron 2012 · A	21	34	39→45	45→50	36	172/216/255	83	252	7	7	34%	5%	31	-3.7	189/226/284	95	266	6	9	30%	4%	41	-3.0	237/293/310	73	315	4	8	24%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Frank Rodriguez 2023 · A	21	40	40→45	48→30	38	195/255/282	87	294	7	4	35%	6%	53	-2.1	178/234/262	84	256	7	3	32%	6%	40	-3.0	183/244/267	84	244	9	1	28%	6%	43	-0.9
✕Pablo Aliendo 2022 · A	21	39	39→50	44→45	37	186/262/264	78	301	7	6	38%	6%	52	-2.2	204/269/325	121	300	13	5	35%	6%	68	-1.0	197/266/334	137	285	16	5	35%	7%	66	-0.6
✕Willy Diaz 2015 · A	21	36	36→40	45→40	46	170/263/235	65	253	4	5	32%	9%	47	-2.6	187/263/267	80	309	5	4	37%	8%	53	-2.1	184/258/270	86	308	5	2	39%	8%	49	-0.9
✕Payton Henry 2018 · A	21	39→31	42→45	46→30	38	189/254/293	104	302	8	3	38%	7%	55	-1.9	184/249/284	100	318	10	2	43%	6%	51	-2.2	242/289/361	119	320	16	1	29%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Luis Palacios 2010 · A	21	39	39→40	46→50	36	192/235/276	84	265	7	5	30%	4%	43	-2.8	192/239/270	78	302	5	7	36%	5%	43	-2.8	140/190/175	36	236	0	6	38%	6%	0	-1.0
✕Franklin Tineo 2016 · A	21	36	38→45	41→50	47	177/258/254	77	247	5	7	29%	9%	48	-2.5	190/264/281	91	260	7	10	28%	8%	56	-1.9	184/261/280	96	239	8	13	25%	8%	53	-0.7
✕Rey Duran 2009 · A	20	36	41→50	49→40	41	183/243/277	94	256	9	6	31%	6%	47	-2.5	213/267/338	125	268	14	5	25%	6%	70	-0.8	210/263/349	139	246	19	2	23%	5%	69	-0.4
✕Arturo De Freitas 2023 · A	22	35	39→45	45→40	34	174/222/255	81	277	7	4	39%	5%	34	-3.5	184/241/265	81	306	8	5	40%	6%	44	-2.8	141/191/216	75	260	9	0	47%	5%	11	-1.0
✕Claudio Finol 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	46→45	40	194/253/278	85	271	5	6	29%	6%	51	-2.3	196/253/280	84	275	6	9	29%	6%	51	-2.2	192/260/271	78	271	9	12	31%	7%	51	-0.6
✕Deivi Mejia 2011 · A	21	40	39→40	43→30	44	193/264/278	85	266	7	5	29%	8%	55	-1.9	212/259/304	92	276	7	4	25%	4%	59	-1.7	224/268/311	87	267	6	1	18%	3%	64	-0.5
✕Adam Zebrowski 2022 · A	21	44→35	39→50	49→40	38	206/267/292	86	316	5	7	34%	6%	59	-1.7	190/262/310	120	286	13	4	36%	8%	62	-1.4	188/241/319	130	273	18	2	37%	5%	53	-1.3
✕Jorge Quiterio 2015 · A	20	36	40→45	46→45	39	183/234/269	86	255	8	8	31%	5%	41	-3.0	194/235/279	85	299	6	9	35%	5%	43	-2.8	177/200/259	83	273	6	12	37%	2%	24	-1.1
✕Elio Prado 2023 · A	21	42→38	36→40	46→50	45	196/282/260	64	285	4	6	30%	8%	59	-1.7	195/265/290	95	267	9	12	29%	7%	59	-1.7	182/251/273	91	250	9	14	30%	7%	47	-1.4
✕Max George 2017 · A	21	39→38	40→45	47→55	43	187/274/280	93	280	7	10	33%	8%	61	-1.5	185/265/295	110	249	10	19	28%	7%	61	-1.5	164/253/286	122	221	13	23	31%	8%	52	-1.3
✕Geovanny Planchart 2023 · A	21	41	36→40	50→40	46	189/270/254	65	297	3	5	34%	10%	53	-2.1	192/278/273	81	283	5	4	31%	10%	60	-1.6	178/270/257	78	255	6	2	30%	10%	51	-0.9
✕Alex Murphy 2016 · A	21	42→37	41→45	50→40	39	205/258/310	105	291	8	5	31%	6%	60	-1.6	196/254/318	122	287	13	3	35%	6%	61	-1.5	184/245/308	124	268	14	1	35%	6%	52	-1.5
✕Niko Vasquez 2010 · A	21	41	37→50	46→45	42	193/260/264	71	288	5	6	33%	8%	51	-2.3	197/270/305	108	273	9	3	29%	8%	64	-1.3	221/278/353	132	287	16	6	28%	6%	76	-0.2
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	41	38→40	49→40	40	195/262/275	80	276	6	7	30%	6%	54	-2.0	219/298/304	85	284	8	4	24%	7%	74	-0.5	216/302/271	55	271	5	1	21%	8%	67	-0.3
✕Freuddy Batista 2021 · A	21	40	41→50	48→40	35	192/245/289	98	307	8	5	39%	6%	50	-2.3	206/273/352	146	297	16	6	34%	7%	76	-0.4	199/268/348	150	286	16	5	34%	6%	71	-0.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps