Alejandro Rios — OGILVIE

Alejandro RiosC ACL D-backs

Age 21 R/R 5'11" / 150 lbs ROK HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION47 act + 4 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†53

AVG/OBP/SLG.250 / .250 / .250

PA4

HR0

K%25

BB%7

BABIP333

ISO73

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.4M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL D-backs Red	—	69	64	4	1	0	0	3	25	2	0	1	62	130	78	209	16	103	36	4	106	-61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL D-backs Red	—	69	62	6	2	0	0	5	17	2	0	1	97	188	129	317	32	133	25	7	162	-18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Arizona Red	—	71	60	7	2	0	0	4	22	4	0	1	117	221	150	371	33	171	31	6	168	-13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Arizona Red	—	71	57	9	2	0	0	7	15	4	0	1	158	294	193	487	35	200	21	10	236	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	ROK	ARI	—	47	42	9	2	0	0	5	14	0	1	0	214	298	262	560	48	321	30	11	259	56	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
YTD	21	ROK	ARI	—	47	39	12	3	0	0	8	10	0	1	0	308	426	385	810	77	414	21	17	374	144	+2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.5
ROS	21	ROK	ARI	0%	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	250	250	250	500		292	25	0	254	53	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
ROS	21	MLB	ARI	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		294	—	—	246	47	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	21	ROK	ARI	—	47	43	9	2	0	0	5	14	0	1	0	209	298	256	554	47	310	30	11	259	56	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
TOT	21	ROK	ARI	—	51	46	10	2	0	0	5	15	0	1	0	217	294	261	555	43	323	29	10	259	56	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	ARI	34%	114	103	22	4	1	1	9	33	1	1	0	214	283	301	584	87	293	29	8	265	61	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.0
2028	23	MLB	ARI	48%	249	224	48	9	1	3	20	70	3	2	1	214	287	304	591	89	294	28	8	272	66	-9	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.2
2029	24	MLB	ARI	53%	348	313	69	13	2	5	28	96	4	3	1	220	293	323	615	102	295	28	8	277	70	-12	+0	+0	+6	+10	0.5
2030	25	MLB	ARI	55%	408	368	80	15	2	6	32	112	5	4	1	217	289	318	607	101	295	27	8	280	72	-13	+0	+0	+7	+12	0.7
2031	26	MLB	ARI	56%	446	401	88	17	2	7	36	123	6	4	1	219	293	324	618	105	295	28	8	281	73	-14	+0	+0	+8	+13	0.8
2032	27	MLB	ARI	55%	465	418	91	17	2	7	38	128	6	5	1	218	292	318	610	100	295	28	8	281	73	-14	+1	+0	+8	+13	0.8
2033	28	MLB	ARI	55%	472	424	92	18	2	7	39	131	6	4	1	217	292	318	611	101	295	28	8	280	72	-15	+0	-1	+8	+13	0.7
2034	29	MLB	ARI	53%	470	422	91	17	2	7	39	131	6	4	1	216	291	315	606	100	294	28	8	278	71	-16	+0	-1	+8	+13	0.5
2035	30	MLB	ARI	53%	464	417	90	17	2	7	38	131	6	4	1	216	291	317	607	101	292	28	8	275	69	-16	+0	-2	+8	+13	0.3
2027	22	MLB	ARI	34%	39	35	6	1	0	0	3	11	1	0	0	171	256	200	456	29	296	28	8	257	55	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2028	23	MLB	ARI	48%	121	109	25	5	1	2	9	34	2	1	0	229	300	349	649	119	297	28	7	264	61	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.0
2029	24	MLB	ARI	53%	183	165	37	7	1	3	14	51	2	2	1	224	293	333	626	109	298	28	8	270	65	-7	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.1
2030	25	MLB	ARI	55%	223	200	45	9	1	4	18	61	3	2	1	225	299	340	639	115	298	27	8	272	67	-8	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.2
2031	26	MLB	ARI	56%	248	223	49	9	1	4	20	68	3	2	1	220	293	323	616	103	298	27	8	273	67	-9	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.2
2032	27	MLB	ARI	55%	256	230	51	10	1	4	21	71	3	3	1	222	295	326	621	104	297	28	8	273	67	-9	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.3
2033	28	MLB	ARI	55%	258	232	51	10	1	4	21	72	3	2	1	220	293	323	616	103	297	28	8	272	67	-10	+0	-0	+5	+7	0.2
2034	29	MLB	ARI	53%	251	225	49	9	1	4	21	70	3	2	1	218	293	320	613	102	296	28	8	271	65	-10	+0	-1	+4	+7	0.1
2035	30	MLB	ARI	53%	244	219	48	9	1	4	20	69	3	2	1	219	293	324	618	105	295	28	8	268	63	-10	+0	-1	+4	+7	0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1823	1639	361	69	8	29	147	507	23	16	7	220	294	325	619	105	299	28	8	271	65	-71	+0	-2	+33	+52	1.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	129	25	3	10	52	181	8	6	2	221	293	325	618	104	301	28	8	271	65	-25	+0	-1	+12	+18	0.4
Career	—			—	3580	3218	683	130	16	50	286	1003	49	31	10	212	287	309	596	97	290	28	8	272	67	-135	+2	-4	+64	+101	2.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	124	24	3	9	52	182	9	6	2	212	286	310	596	98	290	28	8	272	67	-25	+0	-1	+12	+18	0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL D-backs Red	—	69	62	6	2	0	0	5	17	2	0	1	97	188	129	317	32	133	25	7	162	-18	-9	-0	—	—	+2	-0.8
2023	18	ROK	DSL Arizona Red	—	71	57	9	2	0	0	7	15	4	0	1	158	294	193	487	35	200	21	10	236	38	-5	-0	—	—	+2	-0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#4Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#5Gary Bennettlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,703 PA	8	1,703	20	6	239	301	327	+17	+6	2.6	2.6
	/162	664	8	2	239	301	327	+6.7	+2.4	1.0	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	1,874	28	18	218	289	320	+33	+24	2.5	2.4
	/162	664	10	6	218	289	320	+11.9	+8.5	0.9	pk7: 2
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alejandro Rios (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	217/294/261	43	323	0	1	29%	10%	56	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Dustin Peterson 2015 · A	20	36→46	38→50	42→45	33	182/217/258	76	270	6	3	34%	4%	23	-3.6	210/254/297	87	279	7	4	26%	5%	49	-1.8	238/284/365	127	294	16	2	24%	5%	76	+0.0
✕Domingo Soriano 2011 · A	21	36	38→45	43→50	32	179/218/255	75	276	5	7	36%	4%	23	-3.6	194/234/273	79	322	5	10	39%	4%	34	-2.8	179/206/255	77	297	5	17	41%	2%	15	-1.1
✕Erick Gonzalez 2011 · A	20	38	34→40	43→50	42	182/243/237	55	268	2	7	31%	7%	29	-3.2	210/295/284	74	272	3	10	22%	10%	64	-0.8	214/322/287	73	261	2	14	16%	13%	74	-0.0
✕Mark Dolenc 2007 · A	22	38→48	35→40	49→55	39	186/231/245	59	262	3	11	30%	5%	26	-3.4	215/268/288	73	322	5	16	32%	6%	53	-1.5	225/277/302	76	336	4	21	32%	6%	56	-0.8
✕Jerar Encarnacion 2019 · A	21	37→44	40→55	46→45	31	176/222/262	86	310	8	6	44%	5%	27	-3.3	201/249/319	118	314	13	6	38%	6%	53	-1.5	225/289/397	172	330	25	6	38%	8%	88	+0.7
✕Alexander Palma 2016 · A	20	40	37→50	51→45	38	192/220/263	70	237	5	9	21%	3%	24	-3.5	215/247/324	109	261	10	8	22%	4%	53	-1.5	238/275/385	147	286	16	7	23%	4%	78	+0.1
✕Tyler Massey 2010 · A	21	40→48	36→45	44→50	34	195/225/261	66	279	4	8	31%	4%	26	-3.4	188/223/264	76	275	4	9	32%	4%	27	-3.3	224/264/337	113	285	12	16	25%	4%	60	-0.8
✕Andrew Ray 2012 · A	21	36	38→50	50	35	173/229/245	72	298	6	7	42%	6%	26	-3.4	186/217/303	117	287	11	4	38%	4%	35	-2.8	169/194/297	129	256	13	2	40%	3%	21	-1.3
✕Luis Tejada 2014 · A	21	40→44	37→45	52→50	37	192/233/261	69	268	4	13	29%	4%	30	-3.1	205/249/293	88	272	7	9	26%	4%	46	-2.0	214/261/329	115	261	12	7	23%	5%	57	-0.6
✕Yasiel Balaguert 2013 · A	20	38→42	38→45	43→40	33	185/218/257	72	284	6	4	36%	4%	23	-3.6	195/230/280	85	283	7	3	32%	4%	34	-2.8	200/236/312	112	260	13	2	28%	4%	43	-1.8
✕Randy Claxton 2007 · A	21	35	35→30	46→45	40	170/233/226	56	243	3	7	30%	6%	23	-3.6	195/281/257	62	265	2	6	25%	8%	52	-1.6	184/298/226	42	243	0	2	21%	10%	53	-0.6
✕Roberto Perez 2009 · A	20	33	38→45	43→30	39	167/229/240	73	245	7	3	34%	6%	25	-3.5	200/268/307	107	263	11	4	27%	7%	59	-1.1	189/266/312	123	228	15	1	24%	8%	60	-0.4
✕Rainer Nunez 2021 · A	20	37→47	38→45	39→30	41	183/233/262	79	235	6	4	25%	5%	31	-3.0	224/269/356	132	293	16	2	28%	5%	72	-0.2	224/262/355	131	297	17	0	30%	4%	65	-0.4
✕José Azocar 2018 · A	22	43→53	34→45	49→65	31	202/225/255	53	306	1	10	34%	3%	24	-3.5	226/250/297	71	332	4	9	32%	3%	46	-2.0	236/277/349	113	316	9	29	27%	5%	69	-0.3
✕David Berres 2008 · A	21	37	34→30	47→45	36	176/234/223	47	286	2	10	37%	6%	22	-3.7	208/278/264	56	288	3	7	26%	8%	51	-1.7	214/295/252	38	292	3	6	25%	10%	52	-0.9
✕Luis Ubiera 2017 · A	20	38	34→30	45→50	41	178/237/225	46	258	1	9	30%	6%	24	-3.6	198/272/259	61	260	2	9	23%	7%	48	-1.9	182/277/230	48	229	0	10	18%	9%	41	-0.8
✕David Medina 2009 · A	20	35→44	36→50	45→40	41	169/243/235	66	277	4	5	38%	8%	30	-3.1	203/262/301	98	313	8	4	35%	7%	54	-1.4	206/252/326	119	307	10	2	35%	6%	53	-0.8
✕Carlos Franco 2012 · A	20	35→45	37→45	52→45	39	172/228/242	70	257	5	9	34%	6%	24	-3.5	204/263/277	73	292	5	8	30%	7%	48	-1.9	213/270/320	107	302	12	3	32%	7%	59	-0.9
✕Xavier Hernandez 2006 · A	20	36	36→40	49→30	36	173/233/232	59	289	4	5	39%	6%	24	-3.6	203/261/282	79	296	7	4	32%	6%	49	-1.8	201/260/275	74	277	8	0	29%	6%	48	-0.7
✕DJ Gladney 2023 · AA	22	32→42	42→55	51→50	29	157/212/256	99	314	11	6	51%	6%	22	-3.7	192/238/338	146	313	19	9	43%	5%	54	-1.4	212/251/383	171	323	24	11	41%	4%	68	-0.3