Marcos Herrera — OGILVIE

Marcos Herrera P Fresno Grizzlies

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 182 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.2 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION65 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138129vR 120

ERA5.30

FIP5.30

K%19.2%

BB%14.2%

K-BB%5.0%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 130 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4055

CMD3040

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-1	$4M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$7M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$9M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$11M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Rockies	11	8	34	142	29	15	5	73%	3.1	13.9%	13.2%	0.7%	3.4%	4.24	5.44	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL Rockies	11	8	34	142	29	15	5	73%	3.1	20.4%	10.6%	9.9%	3.5%	4.24	4.63	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Colorado	11	9	44	193	38	16	1	82%	4.0	13.4%	10.4%	3.0%	0.6%	4.74	3.59	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Colorado	11	9	44	193	38	16	1	82%	4.0	19.7%	8.3%	11.4%	0.5%	4.74	2.76	—
2024	19	ROK	ACL Rockies	12	6	44	203	39	28	2	50%	3.6	13.1%	17.2%	-4.2%	1.3%	5.77	4.88	—
2024	19	ROK	ACL Rockies	12	6	44	203	39	28	2	50%	3.6	19.2%	13.8%	5.4%	1.0%	5.77	3.83	—
2025	20	A	Fresno Grizzlies	21	19	101	440	102	53	8	90%	4.8	17.2%	14.2%	2.9%	3.2%	3.93	5.21	—
2025	20	A	Fresno Grizzlies	21	19	101	440	102	53	8	90%	4.8	23.2%	12.0%	11.1%	1.8%	3.93	3.69	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A	Fresno Grizzlies	17	17	65	325	69	47	15	100%	3.8	15.2%	17.4%	-2.2%	6.1%	7.75	7.36	-2.1
ROS	21	MLB	COL	12	12	65	274	53	39	8	100%	5.4	19.2%	14.2%	5.0%	3.0%	5.30	5.30	-0.5
ROS	21	MLB	COL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.2%	14.2%	5.0%	3.4%	5.55	5.55	—
2026 TOT	21	MLB	COL	—	—	130	599	122	86	23	—	—	20.3%	14.4%	5.9%	3.9%	6.53	6.33	-1.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	COL	26	26	130	551	117	69	16	100%	5.0	21.1%	12.5%	8.6%	2.9%	5.01	4.89	+0.8
2028	23	MLB	COL	32	32	169	715	160	82	21	100%	5.3	22.4%	11.5%	10.9%	2.9%	4.76	4.63	+1.5
2029	24	MLB	COL	31	31	175	739	171	80	21	100%	5.6	23.1%	10.8%	12.3%	2.9%	4.58	4.47	+1.9
2030	25	MLB	COL	30	30	177	748	176	78	21	100%	5.9	23.5%	10.5%	13.0%	2.8%	4.46	4.39	+2.1
2031	26	MLB	COL	30	30	177	748	177	78	21	100%	5.9	23.7%	10.4%	13.2%	2.8%	4.40	4.37	+2.1
2032	27	MLB	COL	29	29	174	737	174	78	21	100%	6.0	23.7%	10.5%	13.2%	2.9%	4.40	4.40	+2.0
2033	28	MLB	COL	28	28	169	715	168	76	21	100%	6.0	23.6%	10.7%	12.9%	3.0%	4.45	4.49	+1.8
2034	29	MLB	COL	27	27	162	683	159	74	21	100%	6.0	23.3%	10.9%	12.4%	3.1%	4.55	4.62	+1.5
2035	30	MLB	COL	25	25	152	642	147	72	21	100%	6.1	23.0%	11.2%	11.8%	3.3%	4.70	4.80	+1.1
2036	31	MLB	COL	24	24	142	598	135	69	21	100%	5.9	22.6%	11.6%	11.0%	3.6%	4.88	5.00	+0.7
2037	32	MLB	COL	22	22	131	554	122	66	21	100%	6.0	22.1%	11.9%	10.2%	3.8%	5.09	5.22	+0.3
2038	33	MLB	COL	20	20	120	508	110	63	21	100%	6.0	21.6%	12.4%	9.2%	4.1%	5.32	5.47	-0.1
2027	22	MLB	COL	13	13	64	270	57	34	9	100%	4.9	21.1%	12.5%	8.6%	3.4%	5.25	5.13	-0.4
2028	23	MLB	COL	23	23	123	519	116	60	17	100%	5.3	22.4%	11.5%	10.9%	3.3%	5.00	4.87	+0.8
2029	24	MLB	COL	26	26	145	612	141	66	20	100%	5.6	23.1%	10.8%	12.3%	3.3%	4.82	4.71	+1.2
2030	25	MLB	COL	27	27	156	659	155	69	22	100%	5.8	23.5%	10.5%	13.0%	3.3%	4.70	4.63	+1.4
2031	26	MLB	COL	27	27	162	684	162	71	22	100%	6.0	23.7%	10.4%	13.2%	3.3%	4.64	4.61	+1.5
2032	27	MLB	COL	27	27	162	684	162	72	23	100%	6.0	23.7%	10.5%	13.2%	3.3%	4.64	4.64	+1.4
2033	28	MLB	COL	26	26	158	667	157	71	23	100%	6.1	23.6%	10.7%	12.9%	3.5%	4.70	4.74	+1.2
2034	29	MLB	COL	26	26	154	650	152	71	24	100%	5.9	23.3%	10.9%	12.4%	3.6%	4.81	4.88	+0.9
2035	30	MLB	COL	24	24	144	608	140	68	23	100%	6.0	23.0%	11.2%	11.8%	3.9%	4.98	5.08	+0.5
2036	31	MLB	COL	22	22	135	570	129	66	23	100%	6.1	22.6%	11.6%	11.0%	4.1%	5.18	5.30	+0.2
2037	32	MLB	COL	21	21	125	528	117	63	23	100%	6.0	22.1%	11.9%	10.2%	4.4%	5.41	5.54	-0.2
2038	33	MLB	COL	19	19	114	481	104	60	23	100%	6.0	21.6%	12.4%	9.2%	4.7%	5.66	5.81	-0.6
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			281	281	1643	6936	1592	771	253	100%	5.8	23.0%	11.1%	11.8%	3.7%	4.94	4.57	+15.9
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	194	94	31	100%	5.9	23.0%	11.1%	11.8%	3.7%	4.94	4.57	+1.9
Career	—			72	59	287	1303	197	193	42	82%	4.0	15.1%	14.8%	0.3%	3.2%	5.24	5.48	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—			50	41	200	908	137	134	29	82%	4.0	15.1%	14.8%	0.3%	3.2%	5.24	5.48	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Marcos Herrera (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	19.2%	14.2%	3.0%	—	4.64	22.3%	10.8%	475	-0.66	—	—	—
Khristian Curtis R 2027 · 5.39 FIP	22	SP	5.39	18.8%	14.4%	3.7%	.275	4.58	21.4%	9.3%	183	-0.81	4.52	258	91
Zack Bird R 2026 · 4.72 FIP	21	SP	4.72	18.1%	15.6%	2.1%	.281	5.19	10.8%	-7.7%	48	+0.47	4.72	149	88
Kyle Bradish R 2027 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	20.8%	13.7%	2.9%	.309	3.76	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.91	2.15	702	88
Max Bain R 2028 · 5.37 FIP	23	SP	5.37	20.5%	15.2%	3.8%	.291	6.65	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.28	5.16	174	87
Chris McElvain R 2027 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	15.8%	11.6%	2.9%	.275	5.18	16.0%	4.7%	191	+0.39	4.01	287	86
Josh Bostick R 2027 · 4.73 FIP	22	SP	4.73	19.3%	11.2%	3.4%	.304	5.46	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.73	4.73	226	86
Aaron Davenport R 2027 · 4.63 FIP	22	SP	4.63	20.0%	13.2%	2.8%	.280	4.97	16.9%	5.2%	391	+0.34	4.09	498	86
Will Sanders R 2027 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP	5.17	19.3%	11.8%	4.0%	.297	4.04	20.9%	12.5%	167	-1.13	3.89	259	86
Jake Madden R 2026 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP	5.22	15.9%	15.2%	2.8%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.65	4.57	123	86
Michael YaSenka R 2028 · 5.84 FIP	23	SP	5.84	18.1%	15.0%	4.3%	.288	5.74	18.8%	6.1%	58	-0.10	5.74	154	86
J.P. Massey R 2028 · 4.91 FIP	23	SP	4.91	18.2%	16.0%	2.4%	.259	5.03	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.12	4.62	195	86
Frank German R 2026 · 5.10 FIP	21	SP	5.10	19.5%	12.4%	3.8%	.308	4.77	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.33	3.16	218	85
Bryce Conley R 2028 · 4.94 FIP	23	SP-	4.94	20.2%	12.2%	3.7%	.269	4.98	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.04	4.60	529	85
Garrett Cave R 2027 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP	4.92	16.4%	14.9%	2.4%	.301	4.97	17.8%	-8.8%	40	+0.05	4.92	156	85
Jurrangelo Cijntje S 2027 · 5.16 FIP	22	SP	5.16	20.5%	12.6%	4.0%	.242	5.35	22.9%	10.5%	80	+0.19	5.16	189	85
Henry Williams R 2026 · 5.43 FIP	21	SP	5.43	16.5%	14.2%	3.5%	.271	4.77	16.7%	6.5%	293	-0.66	4.06	360	85
Aaron Hernandez R 2027 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP-	4.92	18.6%	15.7%	2.5%	.340	4.59	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.33	4.45	194	85
Will Watson R 2027 · 4.19 FIP	22	SP-	4.19	21.8%	13.4%	2.2%	.275	5.43	15.2%	2.1%	20	+1.24	4.19	141	84
Davian Garcia R 2026 · 5.37 FIP	21	SP	5.37	15.8%	16.5%	2.8%	.260	5.35	15.2%	-4.6%	28	-0.02	5.35	124	84
Elijah Dale R 2028 · 4.70 FIP	23	SP	4.70	16.7%	13.6%	2.3%	.239	6.40	18.4%	-1.6%	31	+1.70	4.70	140	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	13	152	22.7%	11.3%	1.21	4.71
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Zach Davies ('23)	9	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Wade Miley ('23)	8	136	18.2%	8.5%	1.07	4.20
Julio Teheran ('23)	7	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12