Marcos Herrera — OGILVIE

Marcos Herrera P Fresno Grizzlies

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 182 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.3 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION96 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.35

FIP5.35

K%19.2%

BB%15.0%

K-BB%4.2%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 104 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$15M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4055

CMD3040

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$4M	+1.0	$5M	+$3M
2032	Arb-2	$7M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$9M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$16M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	11	8	34	142	29	15	5	73%	3.1	13.9%	13.2%	0.7%	4.0%	4.24	5.79	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	11	8	34	142	29	15	5	73%	3.1	20.4%	10.6%	9.9%	3.5%	4.24	4.63	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	11	9	44	193	38	16	1	82%	4.0	13.4%	10.4%	3.0%	0.6%	4.74	3.63	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	11	9	44	193	38	16	1	82%	4.0	13.4%	10.4%	3.0%	0.6%	4.74	3.63	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	11	9	44	193	38	16	1	82%	4.0	19.7%	8.3%	11.4%	0.5%	4.74	2.76	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	12	6	44	203	39	28	2	50%	3.6	13.1%	17.2%	-4.2%	1.3%	5.77	4.91	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	12	6	44	203	39	28	2	50%	3.6	13.1%	17.2%	-4.2%	1.3%	5.77	4.91	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	12	6	44	203	39	28	2	50%	3.6	19.2%	13.8%	5.4%	1.0%	5.77	3.83	—
2025	20	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	21	19	101	440	102	53	8	90%	4.8	17.2%	14.2%	2.9%	2.7%	3.93	4.94	—
2025	20	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	21	19	101	440	102	53	8	90%	4.8	17.2%	14.2%	2.9%	2.7%	3.93	4.94	—
2025	20	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	21	19	101	440	102	53	8	90%	4.8	23.2%	12.0%	11.1%	1.8%	3.93	3.69	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	26	23	96	493	99	71	18	88%	3.7	14.5%	17.2%	-2.7%	4.8%	8.81	6.69	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	26	23	96	493	99	71	18	88%	3.7	14.5%	17.2%	-2.7%	4.8%	8.81	6.69	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	COL	5	5	22	102	27	14	3	100%	4.5	26.5%	13.7%	12.7%	2.9%	4.84	4.22	—
2026	21	A RAW	COL	21	18	74	391	72	57	15	86%	3.5	18.4%	14.6%	3.8%	3.8%	10.02	5.50	—
ROS	21	MLB MLE	COL	2	2	8	34	7	5	1	100%	4.1	19.2%	15.0%	4.2%	2.9%	5.35	5.35	-0.0
2026 TOT	21	MLB MLE	COL	—	—	104	527	106	76	19	—	—	20.0%	14.4%	5.6%	3.6%	8.54	6.58	-1.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	COL	26	26	135	569	120	75	16	100%	5.2	21.1%	13.1%	8.0%	2.8%	5.05	4.92	-0.0
2028	23	MLB MLE	COL	32	32	174	734	164	87	21	100%	5.4	22.4%	11.9%	10.4%	2.8%	4.78	4.64	+0.5
2029	24	MLB MLE	COL	31	31	175	739	171	83	21	100%	5.6	23.1%	11.2%	11.9%	2.8%	4.59	4.48	+0.9
2030	25	MLB MLE	COL	30	30	177	748	176	81	21	100%	5.9	23.5%	10.8%	12.7%	2.8%	4.46	4.39	+1.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	COL	30	30	177	748	177	80	21	100%	5.9	23.7%	10.7%	13.0%	2.8%	4.40	4.36	+1.1
2032	27	MLB MLE	COL	29	29	174	737	174	80	21	100%	6.0	23.7%	10.8%	12.9%	2.8%	4.40	4.40	+1.0
2033	28	MLB MLE	COL	28	28	169	715	168	78	21	100%	6.0	23.6%	11.0%	12.6%	2.9%	4.45	4.49	+0.8
2034	29	MLB MLE	COL	27	27	162	683	159	76	21	100%	6.0	23.3%	11.2%	12.1%	3.1%	4.55	4.62	+0.5
2035	30	MLB MLE	COL	25	25	152	642	147	74	21	100%	6.1	23.0%	11.5%	11.5%	3.3%	4.70	4.79	+0.2
2036	31	MLB MLE	COL	24	24	142	598	135	71	21	100%	5.9	22.6%	11.8%	10.7%	3.5%	4.88	5.00	-0.2
2037	32	MLB MLE	COL	22	22	131	554	122	68	21	100%	6.0	22.1%	12.2%	9.9%	3.8%	5.09	5.22	-0.5
2027	22	MLB CTX	COL	13	13	66	279	59	37	9	100%	5.1	21.1%	13.1%	8.0%	3.3%	5.29	5.16	-0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	COL	24	24	127	536	120	64	17	100%	5.3	22.4%	11.9%	10.4%	3.2%	5.02	4.88	+0.4
2029	24	MLB CTX	COL	26	26	145	612	141	68	20	100%	5.6	23.1%	11.2%	11.9%	3.2%	4.82	4.71	+0.7
2030	25	MLB CTX	COL	27	27	156	659	155	71	21	100%	5.8	23.5%	10.8%	12.7%	3.2%	4.69	4.62	+0.9
2031	26	MLB CTX	COL	27	27	162	684	162	73	22	100%	6.0	23.7%	10.7%	13.0%	3.2%	4.63	4.59	+1.0
2032	27	MLB CTX	COL	27	27	162	684	162	74	22	100%	6.0	23.7%	10.8%	12.9%	3.3%	4.64	4.64	+0.9
2033	28	MLB CTX	COL	26	26	158	667	157	73	23	100%	6.1	23.6%	11.0%	12.6%	3.4%	4.70	4.74	+0.8
2034	29	MLB CTX	COL	26	26	154	650	152	73	23	100%	5.9	23.3%	11.2%	12.1%	3.5%	4.81	4.88	+0.5
2035	30	MLB CTX	COL	24	24	144	608	140	70	23	100%	6.0	23.0%	11.5%	11.5%	3.8%	4.97	5.06	+0.2
2036	31	MLB CTX	COL	22	22	135	570	129	67	23	100%	6.1	22.6%	11.8%	10.7%	4.0%	5.17	5.29	-0.2
2037	32	MLB CTX	COL	21	21	125	528	117	65	23	100%	6.0	22.1%	12.2%	9.9%	4.3%	5.40	5.53	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		263	263	1534	6475	1492	735	226	100%	5.8	23.0%	11.3%	11.7%	3.5%	4.88	4.50	+7.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	195	96	29	100%	5.8	23.0%	11.3%	11.7%	3.5%	4.88	4.50	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		81	65	318	1471	219	221	45	80%	3.9	14.9%	15.0%	-0.1%	3.1%	5.80	5.43	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	41	200	925	138	139	28	80%	3.9	14.9%	15.0%	-0.1%	3.1%	5.80	5.43	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Marcos Herrera (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.35	19.2%	15.0%	2.9%	—	4.66	22.3%	10.3%	484	-0.69	—	—	—
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	88
Zack Bird R 2015 · 4.59 FIP	21	SP	4.59	18.1%	15.6%	1.9%	.281	5.37	10.8%	-7.7%	48	+0.78	4.59	149	87
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	87
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	87
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	87
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	86
José Leclerc R 2015 · 5.02 FIP	21	SP	5.02	16.8%	17.0%	2.1%	.304	3.15	30.0%	15.1%	184	-1.87	1.48	527	86
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	85
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	85
Garrett Cave R 2018 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP	4.99	16.4%	14.9%	2.5%	.301	4.97	17.8%	-8.8%	40	-0.02	4.97	156	85
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.73	16.1%	4.0%	225	+1.44	2.86	357	84
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	84
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	84
Michael YaSenka R 2021 · 5.98 FIP	23	SP	5.98	18.1%	15.0%	4.6%	.288	5.95	18.8%	6.1%	58	-0.03	5.95	154	84
R.J. Freure R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	22	SP-	5.13	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	6.05	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.92	5.13	196	83
Aaron Davenport R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SP	4.81	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	4.95	16.7%	5.5%	391	+0.14	4.04	498	83
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	83
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	83
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	83
Frank German R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SP	5.01	19.5%	12.4%	3.6%	.308	4.56	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.45	3.10	218	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.3	155	22.8%	11.6%	1.16	4.68
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98