Marcos Herrera — OGILVIE

Marcos Herrera P Fresno Grizzlies

+0.7 WAR

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 182 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 2.5 · 2030

ERA4.75

FIP4.75

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%20.7%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%9.3%

IP101

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.5peak

2030

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Rockies	11	8	34	142	29	15	5	13.9%	13.2%	3.5%	4.24	5.55	-0.2
2023	18	ROK	DSL Colorado	11	9	44	193	38	16	1	13.4%	10.4%	0.6%	4.74	3.60	+0.7
2024	19	ROK	ACL Rockies	12	6	44	203	39	28	2	13.1%	17.2%	1.3%	5.77	4.89	+0.0
2025	20	A	Fresno Grizzlies	21	19	101	440	102	53	8	17.2%	14.2%	2.6%	3.93	4.89	+0.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A	Fresno Grizzlies	3	3	11	57	12	8	4	15.6%	16.6%	9.1%	9.82	8.89	-0.5
ROS	21	MLB	COL	18	18	101	425	88	48	12	20.7%	11.4%	2.9%	4.75	4.75	+0.6
2026 Total	21	MLB	COL	—	—	112	482	100	56	16	20.7%	11.7%	3.4%	5.25	5.16	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	22	MLB	COL	23	23	128	539	117	55	15	21.7%	10.2%	2.8%	4.57	4.48	+1.2
2028	23	MLB	COL	28	28	152	644	145	61	18	22.5%	9.4%	2.8%	4.40	4.30	+1.7
2029	24	MLB	COL	31	31	172	727	167	65	20	23.0%	8.9%	2.8%	4.28	4.19	+2.2
2030	25	MLB	COL	34	34	186	787	184	69	22	23.4%	8.7%	2.8%	4.19	4.13	+2.5
2031	26	MLB	COL	34	34	186	787	186	68	22	23.6%	8.7%	2.8%	4.14	4.10	+2.5
2032	27	MLB	COL	34	34	185	782	184	68	22	23.6%	8.7%	2.8%	4.12	4.11	+2.5
2033	28	MLB	COL	33	33	182	770	181	67	22	23.5%	8.7%	2.8%	4.13	4.14	+2.4
2034	29	MLB	COL	32	32	178	752	176	66	21	23.4%	8.8%	2.9%	4.16	4.18	+2.3
2035	30	MLB	COL	31	31	173	730	169	65	21	23.2%	8.9%	2.9%	4.21	4.25	+2.1
2036	31	MLB	COL	30	30	167	704	162	64	21	23.0%	9.0%	3.0%	4.28	4.32	+1.9
2037	32	MLB	COL	29	29	160	676	153	62	21	22.7%	9.2%	3.1%	4.36	4.41	+1.6
2038	33	MLB	COL	28	28	153	646	144	61	20	22.4%	9.4%	3.2%	4.45	4.51	+1.4
2039	34	MLB	COL	26	26	145	613	135	59	20	22.0%	9.6%	3.3%	4.55	4.62	+1.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			58	45	233	1035	156	146	25	15.1%	14.1%	2.5%	4.75	4.96	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—			50	39	200	888	134	125	21	15.1%	14.1%	2.5%	4.75	4.96	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Marcos Herrera (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.75	20.7%	11.4%	2.9%	—	4.31	22.5%	13.0%	452	-0.44	—	—	—
Trevor Martin R 2027 · 4.24 FIP	22	SP-	4.24	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.28	20.2%	11.6%	172	+0.04	4.19	282	92
Jackson Nezuh R 2027 · 3.90 FIP	22	SP-	3.90	22.5%	11.2%	2.3%	.290	4.40	18.6%	9.7%	72	+0.50	3.90	193	91
CJ Van Eyk R 2027 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	21.8%	12.7%	3.6%	.302	4.62	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.21	2.74	347	90
Logan Hofmann R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	21	SP-	4.51	22.1%	11.3%	3.4%	.239	6.75	9.7%	-12.0%	47	+2.24	4.51	129	89
Aaron Davenport R 2027 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP-	4.86	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	5.01	16.9%	5.2%	391	+0.15	4.06	498	89
Kyle Bradish R 2027 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP-	4.55	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.87	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.68	2.16	615	89
Josh Bostick R 2027 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP-	4.71	19.3%	11.2%	3.3%	.304	5.41	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.70	4.71	226	89
Cade Smith R 2027 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP-	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	4.20	20.3%	6.5%	33	+0.34	3.86	118	89
Daniel Eagen R 2027 · 4.14 FIP	22	SP-	4.14	25.1%	12.6%	2.9%	.263	7.80	20.3%	9.7%	12	+3.66	4.14	129	89
Will Watson R 2027 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP-	4.13	21.8%	13.4%	2.1%	.275	4.39	15.6%	5.0%	11	+0.26	4.13	132	89
Brandon Young R 2027 · 4.11 FIP	22	SP-	4.11	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.57	22.4%	14.1%	150	-0.54	3.13	319	89
Will Sanders R 2027 · 4.90 FIP	22	SP-	4.90	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.297	4.22	20.2%	11.5%	139	-0.68	4.01	231	89
Griffin Canning R 2027 · 3.70 FIP	22	SP-	3.70	21.8%	10.0%	2.1%	.312	4.13	23.9%	15.3%	225	+0.43	3.65	705	89
Mason Hickman R 2027 · 4.73 FIP	22	SP-	4.73	20.2%	10.2%	3.7%	.288	5.45	24.0%	10.8%	181	+0.72	4.73	300	89
Josh Grosz R 2026 · 4.83 FIP	21	SP-	4.83	19.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.271	4.75	19.4%	7.6%	125	-0.08	4.75	243	88
Nolan DeVos R 2027 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.82	12.3%	-1.5%	12	+1.65	4.17	110	88
Nick Sinacola R 2027 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	10.4%	3.0%	.335	4.06	18.2%	10.0%	254	-0.37	3.55	357	88
David Perez R 2027 · 3.99 FIP	22	SP-	3.99	21.1%	9.3%	2.7%	.292	5.20	15.6%	1.9%	67	+1.21	3.99	151	87
Jack Wenninger R 2027 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP-	4.25	20.9%	9.3%	3.2%	.309	3.90	21.4%	13.1%	136	-0.35	3.90	251	87
Luke Russo R 2028 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	3.92	21.5%	10.2%	38	+0.20	3.72	139	87

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.5	$23M	+$22M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+2.5	$24M	+$23M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+2.4	$24M	+$23M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+2.3	$23M	+$19M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+2.1	$22M	+$15M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$14M		$116M	+$101M