Marcos Herrera

P Fresno Grizzlies

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 182 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.4 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#857ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKCOL	12	6	44	5.77	3.83	19.2%	13.8%	—	K 13.1% · BB 17.2% · FIP 4.91
2025	20	ACOL	21	19	101	3.93	3.69	23.2%	12.0%	—	K 17.2% · BB 14.2% · FIP 4.94
2026	21	MIX2 levels	26	23	96	8.81	5.69	20.1%	14.4%	—	K 14.5% · BB 17.2% · FIP 6.69
2027PROJ	22	MLBCOL	—	—	0	5.94	5.94	17.6%	16.8%	—
2028PROJ35% MLB	23	MLBCOL	6	6	33	5.83	5.69	19.8%	14.5%	-0.0
2029PROJ54% MLB	24	MLBCOL	10	10	57	5.52	5.37	21.1%	13.1%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$2M2033Arb-3$2M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 1.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsJ.P. Massey (age 23) · Jacob Watters (age 22) · Michael YaSenka (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146138vR 130

ERA5.94

FIP5.94

K%17.6%

BB%16.8%

K-BB%0.8%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$8M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.9M
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	11	8	34	142	29	15	5	73%	3.1	13.9%	13.2%	0.7%	4.0%	4.24	5.79	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	11	8	34	142	29	15	5	73%	3.1	20.4%	10.6%	9.9%	3.5%	4.24	4.63	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	11	9	44	193	38	16	1	82%	4.0	13.4%	10.4%	3.0%	0.6%	4.74	3.63	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	11	9	44	193	38	16	1	82%	4.0	19.7%	8.3%	11.4%	0.5%	4.74	2.76	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	12	6	44	203	39	28	2	50%	3.6	13.1%	17.2%	-4.2%	1.3%	5.77	4.91	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	12	6	44	203	39	28	2	50%	3.6	13.1%	17.2%	-4.2%	1.3%	5.77	4.91	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	12	6	44	203	39	28	2	50%	3.6	19.2%	13.8%	5.4%	1.0%	5.77	3.83	—
2025	20	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	21	19	101	440	102	53	8	90%	4.8	17.2%	14.2%	2.9%	2.7%	3.93	4.94	—
2025	20	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	21	19	101	440	102	53	8	90%	4.8	17.2%	14.2%	2.9%	2.7%	3.93	4.94	—
2025	20	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	21	19	101	440	102	53	8	90%	4.8	23.2%	12.0%	11.1%	1.8%	3.93	3.69	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	96	493	99	71	18	88%	3.7	14.5%	17.2%	-2.7%	4.8%	8.81	6.69	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	96	493	99	71	18	88%	3.7	14.5%	17.2%	-2.7%	4.8%	8.81	6.69	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	23	96	493	99	71	18	88%	3.7	20.1%	14.4%	5.7%	3.7%	8.81	5.69	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	COL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.6%	16.8%	0.8%	3.3%	5.94	5.94	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	COL	18	18	96	403	80	59	13	100%	5.3	19.8%	14.5%	5.3%	3.2%	5.56	5.42	-0.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	COL	19	19	106	446	94	58	14	100%	5.6	21.1%	13.1%	8.1%	3.2%	5.25	5.10	+0.4
2030	25	MLB MLE	COL	19	19	113	478	105	58	15	100%	6.0	22.0%	12.2%	9.8%	3.2%	5.02	4.90	+0.6
2031	26	MLB MLE	COL	19	19	113	475	107	57	15	100%	5.9	22.4%	12.0%	10.4%	3.2%	4.91	4.84	+0.7
2032	27	MLB MLE	COL	18	18	110	462	104	56	15	100%	6.1	22.4%	12.1%	10.3%	3.2%	4.89	4.88	+0.7
2033	28	MLB MLE	COL	17	17	104	441	98	54	15	100%	6.1	22.3%	12.2%	10.0%	3.3%	4.93	4.96	+0.5
2034	29	MLB MLE	COL	16	16	97	411	91	51	14	100%	6.1	22.0%	12.5%	9.6%	3.5%	5.03	5.09	+0.3
2035	30	MLB MLE	COL	15	15	89	375	81	48	14	100%	5.9	21.7%	12.8%	8.9%	3.7%	5.17	5.27	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	COL	6	6	33	139	28	20	5	100%	5.5	19.8%	14.5%	5.3%	3.7%	5.83	5.69	-0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	57	241	51	31	9	100%	5.7	21.1%	13.1%	8.1%	3.7%	5.52	5.37	+0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	COL	13	13	76	321	70	39	12	100%	5.8	22.0%	12.2%	9.8%	3.6%	5.28	5.16	+0.4
2031	26	MLB CTX	COL	14	14	86	363	81	44	13	100%	6.1	22.4%	12.0%	10.4%	3.6%	5.17	5.10	+0.6
2032	27	MLB CTX	COL	15	15	89	376	84	45	14	100%	5.9	22.4%	12.1%	10.3%	3.7%	5.16	5.15	+0.5
2033	28	MLB CTX	COL	15	15	89	376	84	46	14	100%	5.9	22.3%	12.2%	10.0%	3.8%	5.21	5.24	+0.4
2034	29	MLB CTX	COL	14	14	85	359	79	45	14	100%	6.1	22.0%	12.5%	9.6%	4.0%	5.32	5.38	+0.3
2035	30	MLB CTX	COL	13	13	79	334	72	43	14	100%	6.1	21.7%	12.8%	8.9%	4.2%	5.48	5.58	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		101	101	594	2508	550	313	95	100%	5.9	21.9%	12.5%	9.4%	3.8%	5.32	4.92	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	185	105	32	100%	5.9	21.9%	12.5%	9.4%	3.8%	5.32	4.92	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		81	65	318	1471	219	221	45	80%	3.9	14.9%	15.0%	-0.1%	3.1%	5.80	5.43	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	41	200	925	138	139	28	80%	3.9	14.9%	15.0%	-0.1%	3.1%	5.80	5.43	+0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFresno Grizzlies · 74 IPFIP 5.50 → 6.87 (+1.37)K% 18.4% → 13.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.41%	—	×0.740	13.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.58%	—	×1.180	17.20%
HR / BF /BF	3.84%	÷1.000	×1.300	4.99%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.50 → 6.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Rockies · 22 IPFIP 4.22 → 6.01 (+1.80)K% 26.5% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.47%	—	×0.680	18.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.73%	—	×1.250	17.16%
HR / BF /BF	2.94%	÷1.000	×1.400	4.12%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.22 → 6.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFresno Grizzlies · 101 IPFIP 3.67 → 4.94 (+1.28)K% 23.2% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.18%	—	×0.740	17.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.05%	—	×1.180	14.21%
HR / BF /BF	1.82%	÷0.870	×1.300	2.72%

Result: FIP 3.67 → 4.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Rockies · 44 IPFIP 3.77 → 4.91 (+1.14)K% 19.2% → 13.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.21%	—	×0.680	13.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.79%	—	×1.250	17.24%
HR / BF /BF	0.99%	÷1.044	×1.400	1.32%

Result: FIP 3.77 → 4.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Colorado · 44 IPFIP 2.77 → 3.63 (+0.86)K% 19.7% → 13.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.69%	—	×0.680	13.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.29%	—	×1.250	10.36%
HR / BF /BF	0.52%	÷1.146	×1.400	0.63%

Result: FIP 2.77 → 3.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL Rockies · 34 IPFIP 4.65 → 5.79 (+1.15)K% 20.4% → 13.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.42%	—	×0.680	13.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.56%	—	×1.250	13.20%
HR / BF /BF	3.52%	÷1.233	×1.400	4.00%

Result: FIP 4.65 → 5.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Marcos Herrera (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.3%	—	5.13	21.0%	7.9%	314	-0.81	—	—	—
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	88
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	87
Michael YaSenka R 2021 · 5.98 FIP	23	SP	5.98	18.1%	15.0%	4.6%	.288	5.95	18.8%	6.1%	58	-0.03	5.95	154	87
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	87
Carlos Marmol R 2006 · 5.89 FIP	23	SP-	5.89	16.6%	16.0%	3.9%	.252	3.03	31.5%	18.0%	231	-2.86	1.59	608	86
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	85
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	85
Jason Savacool R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	14.9%	14.1%	2.2%	.275	4.88	17.2%	4.6%	128	+0.05	4.26	225	85
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	84
R.J. Freure R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	22	SP-	5.13	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	6.05	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.92	5.13	196	84
Garrett Cave R 2018 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP	4.99	16.4%	14.9%	2.5%	.301	4.97	17.8%	-8.8%	40	-0.02	4.97	156	84
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.59	25.5%	10.9%	108	-0.58	4.20	203	84
Mason Pelio R 2023 · 6.38 FIP	23	SP-	6.38	13.3%	17.4%	4.0%	.255	5.88	9.0%	-12.8%	26	-0.50	5.88	122	84
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	84
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	83
Chad Dallas R 2022 · 5.87 FIP	22	SP	5.87	16.4%	14.5%	4.2%	.282	4.70	20.0%	10.3%	184	-1.17	3.53	358	82
Hunter Parks R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP	5.15	18.9%	19.3%	2.2%	.265	4.95	20.8%	4.6%	139	-0.20	4.42	301	82
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	82
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	81
Raffi Vizcaíno R 2018 · 6.03 FIP	22	SP	6.03	18.8%	17.2%	4.3%	.295	4.27	21.3%	6.7%	103	-1.76	3.06	439	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	102	21.3%	13.0%	1.27	5.17
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Les Cain ('68-'72, 2 WAR*)	1.9	93	24.6%*	12.9%*	1.00*	4.66*
Tim Lollar ('80-'86, 3 WAR*)	4.5	129	21.2%*	12.2%*	1.35*	4.94*
Jeff Robinson ('87-'92, 0 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.3%*	10.9%*	1.38*	5.14*
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45