Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | DSL Giants | 14 | 14 | 72 | 289 | 73 | 16 | 2 | 100% | 5.1 | 17.2% | 6.9% | 10.3% | 1.0% | 2.50 | 3.06 | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | DSL Giants | 14 | 14 | 72 | 289 | 73 | 16 | 2 | 100% | 5.1 | 25.3% | 5.5% | 19.7% | 0.7% | 2.50 | 2.10 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 2 | 2 | 11 | 43 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 5.5 | 25.6% | 2.3% | 23.3% | 0.0% | 3.27 | 1.23 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 2 | 2 | 11 | 43 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 5.5 | 25.6% | 2.3% | 23.3% | 0.0% | 3.27 | 1.37 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 16 | 12 | 78 | 335 | 74 | 28 | 4 | 75% | 4.9 | 16.3% | 9.9% | 6.5% | 2.4% | 4.98 | 4.31 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 16 | 12 | 78 | 335 | 74 | 28 | 4 | 75% | 4.9 | 22.1% | 8.4% | 13.7% | 1.2% | 4.98 | 2.95 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | San Jose Giants | 17 | 16 | 79 | 348 | 85 | 52 | 11 | 94% | 4.7 | 18.8% | 17.2% | 1.6% | 4.7% | 4.65 | 6.24 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | San Jose Giants | 17 | 16 | 79 | 348 | 85 | 52 | 11 | 94% | 4.7 | 24.4% | 14.9% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.65 | 4.73 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 74 | 34 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 22.1% | 14.2% | 7.9% | 1.7% | 3.16 | 3.99 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 74 | 34 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 27.8% | 12.8% | 15.0% | 1.1% | 3.16 | 2.99 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 34 | 2 | 40 | 181 | 45 | 25 | 4 | 6% | 1.2 | 20.1% | 15.2% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 5.40 | 5.04 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 34 | 2 | 40 | 181 | 45 | 25 | 4 | 6% | 1.2 | 24.9% | 13.8% | 11.0% | 2.2% | 5.40 | 4.03 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 44 | 3 | 52 | 238 | 73 | 40 | 8 | 7% | 1.2 | 25.4% | 18.0% | 7.4% | 2.1% | 5.23 | 4.41 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 44 | 3 | 52 | 238 | 73 | 40 | 8 | 7% | 1.2 | 30.7% | 16.8% | 13.9% | 3.4% | 5.23 | 4.61 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 58 | 257 | 76 | 37 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.7% | 15.4% | 9.3% | 1.0% | 4.01 | 3.51 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 58 | 257 | 76 | 37 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.6% | 14.4% | 15.2% | 0.8% | 4.01 | 2.84 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 38 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 2.7% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 34 | 0 | 35 | 149 | 35 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.59 | 4.67 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.59 | 4.67 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 0 | 11 | 47 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.59 | 4.29 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 199 | 108 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.59 | 4.29 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 215 | 49 | 453 | 1957 | 400 | 262 | 45 | 23% | 2.1 | 20.4% | 13.4% | 7.1% | 2.3% | 4.18 | 4.33 | +5.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 95 | 22 | 200 | 865 | 177 | 116 | 20 | 23% | 2.1 | 20.4% | 13.4% | 7.1% | 2.3% | 4.18 | 4.33 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Raffi Vizcaíno (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.7% | — | 4.67 | 23.5% | 11.2% | 35 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 79 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 76 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 76 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2028 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 75 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2025 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 75 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 74 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 74 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.18 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .349 | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 74 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 73 |
| Tim Dillard R 2028 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 72 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.76 | 19.6% | 12.3% | 3.2% | .292 | 3.91 | 19.2% | 10.9% | 25 | -0.85 | 2.82 | 536 | 71 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 71 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.57 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 224 | 71 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.66 | 18.3% | 10.2% | 3.3% | .245 | 4.56 | 23.0% | 12.4% | 49 | -0.10 | 1.74 | 195 | 70 |
| André Rienzo R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.33 | 18.9% | 15.6% | 1.5% | .301 | 5.30 | 17.9% | 6.1% | 29 | +0.97 | 3.58 | 200 | 70 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.97 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .301 | 4.06 | 24.1% | 15.2% | 140 | +0.09 | 1.74 | 468 | 70 |
| Blake Smith R 2024 · 3.66 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.66 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 124 | 70 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .288 | 4.75 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.99 | 2.71 | 392 | 70 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 69 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 37 | 23.7% | 12.3% | 1.09 | 4.54 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |