Jose Fleury
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
+0.0
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'0" / 185 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.6 · 2028
ERA5.05
FIP5.05
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.8%
BB%10.5%
K-BB%10.3%
IP81
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2028
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | DSL HOU Orange | 10 | 4 | 38 | 146 | 60 | 4 | 1 | 27.9% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 1.42 | 1.80 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 26 | 14 | 99 | 398 | 139 | 48 | 8 | 25.8% | 14.2% | 2.6% | 3.65 | 4.17 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 19 | 11 | 71 | 299 | 77 | 26 | 9 | 20.7% | 9.9% | 3.8% | 3.66 | 4.71 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 23 | 19 | 85 | 349 | 78 | 35 | 13 | 18.9% | 10.7% | 4.2% | 4.55 | 5.18 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 5 | 1 | 7 | 35 | 5 | 9 | 2 | — | — | — | 3.86 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | HOU | 15 | 15 | 81 | 344 | 72 | 36 | 13 | 20.8% | 10.5% | 3.6% | 5.05 | 5.05 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 88 | 379 | 77 | 45 | 15 | 20.2% | 11.9% | 3.8% | 4.96 | 4.65 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 17 | 17 | 94 | 399 | 85 | 39 | 14 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.6% | 4.91 | 4.88 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 18 | 18 | 101 | 428 | 92 | 41 | 15 | 21.6% | 9.6% | 3.5% | 4.83 | 4.81 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 19 | 19 | 105 | 442 | 95 | 42 | 16 | 21.6% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 4.79 | 4.79 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 19 | 19 | 105 | 443 | 96 | 42 | 16 | 21.6% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 4.79 | 4.80 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 19 | 19 | 103 | 433 | 93 | 42 | 15 | 21.4% | 9.6% | 3.6% | 4.82 | 4.84 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 18 | 18 | 100 | 420 | 89 | 41 | 15 | 21.2% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 4.87 | 4.91 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 17 | 17 | 96 | 405 | 85 | 40 | 15 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 3.7% | 4.94 | 4.98 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 17 | 17 | 92 | 389 | 81 | 39 | 15 | 20.7% | 10.0% | 3.8% | 5.02 | 5.07 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 16 | 16 | 88 | 372 | 76 | 38 | 14 | 20.4% | 10.2% | 3.9% | 5.11 | 5.17 | +0.0 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 15 | 15 | 84 | 353 | 71 | 37 | 14 | 20.1% | 10.4% | 4.0% | 5.21 | 5.28 | -0.1 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 79 | 333 | 72 | 33 | 14 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 4.1% | 5.16 | 5.13 | -0.0 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 74 | 312 | 66 | 31 | 13 | 21.3% | 10.0% | 4.2% | 5.22 | 5.26 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 83 | 49 | 300 | 1227 | 277 | 137 | 40 | 22.5% | 11.2% | 3.3% | 3.63 | 4.42 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 33 | 200 | 818 | 185 | 91 | 27 | 22.5% | 11.2% | 3.3% | 3.63 | 4.42 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jose Fleury (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.05 | 20.8% | 10.5% | 3.6% | — | 4.83 | 21.5% | 11.9% | 300 | -0.22 | — | — | — |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .298 | 4.96 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.41 | 416 | 91 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .329 | 3.95 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 118 | -0.35 | 2.58 | 199 | 90 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.58 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 2.8% | .296 | 5.08 | 18.4% | 6.8% | 57 | +0.50 | 4.27 | 238 | 89 |
| Carlos Sano R 2027 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 9.12 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.24 | 4.88 | 105 | 89 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 89 |
| Kaleb Fontenot R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.7% | .264 | 3.71 | 14.7% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.78 | 3.71 | 155 | 89 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.53 | 3.77 | 107 | 88 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.92 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 4.5% | .277 | 4.93 | 21.7% | 9.6% | 274 | +0.01 | 4.04 | 448 | 88 |
| Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.1% | .288 | 4.37 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 313 | +0.06 | 2.50 | 554 | 88 |
| Tanner Burns R 2026 · 5.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.31 | 19.4% | 12.5% | 4.1% | .257 | 5.24 | 18.5% | 3.9% | 104 | -0.07 | 4.38 | 355 | 87 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.80 | 18.2% | 4.1% | 73 | -0.23 | 3.80 | 154 | 87 |
| Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .288 | 5.32 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.66 | 4.63 | 340 | 86 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.66 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 4.0% | .261 | 4.22 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 173 | -0.44 | 3.50 | 368 | 86 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.28 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 3.8% | .293 | 4.42 | 22.2% | 10.9% | 274 | -0.86 | 3.98 | 481 | 85 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.13 | 18.8% | 10.2% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.98 | 23.2% | 13.0% | 155 | -1.15 | 2.65 | 315 | 85 |
| Riley Gowens R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 22.6% | 10.3% | 3.9% | .279 | 4.35 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 132 | -0.28 | 4.35 | 254 | 85 |
| T.J. Weir R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.98 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .319 | 3.42 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 190 | -0.56 | 3.15 | 349 | 85 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.40 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .277 | 3.52 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 44 | -0.88 | 3.52 | 128 | 85 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.71 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.10 | 4.71 | 160 | 84 |
| Roman Angelo R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.45 | 17.7% | 4.3% | 141 | +1.43 | 4.02 | 262 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| Totals | $5M | $14M | +$8M | ||