Luke Jackson

P Charleston RiverDogs

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs A peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	15	10	29	3.07	2.42	31.4%	8.3%	—	K 20.7% · BB 9.6% · FIP 3.85
2027PROJ	23	MLBTB	3	3	16	4.44	4.44	22.1%	9.5%	0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBTB	2	2	12	4.36	4.31	22.8%	9.0%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 91%

CompsJared Ruxer (age 23) · Mitch Neunborn (age 26) · Casey Legumina (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 101

ERA4.44

FIP4.44

K%22.1%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%12.7%

Proj IP16

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	10	29	121	38	10	2	67%	2.0	20.7%	9.6%	11.1%	2.3%	3.07	3.85	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	10	29	121	38	10	2	67%	2.0	20.7%	9.6%	11.1%	2.3%	3.07	3.85	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	10	29	121	38	10	2	67%	2.0	31.4%	8.3%	23.1%	1.7%	3.07	2.42	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	TB	3	3	16	68	15	6	2	100%	5.3	22.1%	9.5%	12.7%	3.0%	4.44	4.44	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	TB	5	5	27	114	26	10	3	100%	5.4	22.8%	9.0%	13.7%	2.9%	4.36	4.31	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	TB	2	2	12	51	12	5	1	100%	6.0	22.8%	9.0%	13.7%	2.9%	4.36	4.31	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	12	49	11	4	1	100%	5.8	22.8%	9.0%	13.7%	2.9%	4.36	3.93	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	190	69	17	100%	5.6	22.8%	9.0%	13.7%	2.9%	4.36	3.93	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		15	10	29	121	25	12	3	67%	2.0	20.7%	9.6%	11.1%	2.3%	3.07	3.85	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		102	68	200	825	170	79	19	67%	2.0	20.7%	9.6%	11.1%	2.3%	3.07	3.85	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Jackson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.44	22.1%	9.5%	3.0%	—	4.31	22.8%	13.7%	27	-0.13	—	—	—
Jared Ruxer R 2015 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	17.3%	10.6%	2.1%	.333	4.29	14.9%	7.5%	240	+0.13	3.39	270	80
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	78
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	78
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.9%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	75
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	75
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	73
Drew Rasmussen R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.9%	.312	3.21	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.43	1.21	694	72
Logan Boyer R 2021 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	17.0%	12.7%	4.2%	.306	3.71	25.0%	12.7%	27	-1.89	3.71	121	71
Nathanael Santiago R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP-	3.44	20.3%	11.4%	1.1%	.286	3.58	23.2%	10.9%	71	+0.14	2.49	138	71
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	71
Jared Kollar R 2022 · 5.13 FIP	24	SW	5.13	16.9%	6.2%	4.9%	.359	4.43	14.4%	6.7%	332	-0.70	3.85	345	70
Clay Chandler R 2017 · 4.97 FIP	23	SP-	4.97	18.3%	6.0%	4.8%	.319	4.89	14.8%	8.8%	293	-0.08	4.49	328	70
Evan McKendry R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	18.4%	5.5%	3.6%	.256	5.08	18.4%	12.2%	324	+0.88	4.20	474	69
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	69
Greyfer Eregua R 2017 · 4.87 FIP	23	SP-	4.87	18.3%	9.3%	3.9%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	126	69
Rico Garcia R 2017 · 3.37 FIP	23	SP-	3.37	18.8%	7.0%	1.8%	.316	4.07	19.8%	11.5%	296	+0.70	3.37	592	69
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	69
River Ryan R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	26.1%	12.2%	2.3%	.321	3.88	20.3%	9.2%	134	+0.19	2.44	223	69
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.31	22.9%	10.2%	109	+0.88	3.43	142	68
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.80	25.1%	15.0%	175	-0.63	2.47	305	68