Ethan Frey

OF Asheville Tourists

Age 23 R/R 6'4" / 225 lbs A+ HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#2363ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	AHOU	122	.330/.442/.470	3	9	108	—	.271/.350/.364
2026	22	A+/ROKHOU	313	.288/.383/.468	10	19	83	—	.236/.296/.385
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBHOU	1	.215/.283/.356	0	0	78	-0.0
2028PROJ30% MLB	24	MLBHOU	70	.219/.287/.367	2	1	83	-0.0
2029PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBHOU	130	.222/.291/.375	4	2	86	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$0.6M2032Arb-2$0.7M2033Arb-3$7M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

Speed63

wOBA62

ISO62

BB%60

Chase%60

wRC+48

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 1.3, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 89%

CompsJordan Beck (age 23) · Jeremiah Jackson (age 23) · Christian Franklin (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†78

AVG/OBP/SLG.215 / .283 / .356

PA1

HR0

K%33

BB%8

BABIP299

ISO150

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$11M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	122	100	33	5	0	3	20	25	0	9	5	330	442	470	912	140	405	20	16	404	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	291	250	69	15	1	9	37	85	0	19	5	276	369	452	821	176	375	29	13	362	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	ROK	FCL Astros	—	22	17	8	1	0	1	4	4	0	0	0	471	571	706	1.277	235	538	18	18	527	167	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	122	107	29	4	0	2	13	34	0	9	5	271	350	364	714	93	368	28	11	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	291	265	60	12	1	8	22	111	0	19	5	226	286	370	656	143	334	38	8	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	22	19	7	1	0	1	2	6	0	0	0	368	429	579	1.008	211	417	27	9	415	167	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	122	107	29	4	0	2	13	34	0	9	5	271	350	364	714	93	370	28	11	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	122	100	33	5	0	3	20	25	0	9	5	330	442	470	912	140	405	20	16	404	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	313	284	66	13	1	8	24	117	0	19	5	232	292	370	662	137	354	37	8	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	313	267	77	16	1	10	41	89	0	19	5	288	383	468	851	180	387	28	13	373	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	122	108	29	4	0	2	13	34	0	9	5	269	350	361	711	93	368	28	11	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	313	286	66	13	1	8	24	117	0	19	5	231	292	367	659	136	340	37	8	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	122	108	29	4	0	2	13	34	0	9	5	269	350	361	711	93	368	28	11	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	313	286	66	13	1	8	24	117	0	19	5	231	292	367	659	136	340	37	8	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	HOU	0%	423	384	82	15	2	12	34	138	2	10	3	213	281	354	635	141	295	33	8	284	78	-11	+1	-1	-3	+9	-0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	HOU	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	215	283	356	639	141	299	0	0	286	78	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	HOU	30%	230	208	45	8	1	7	19	74	1	5	1	217	285	366	651	149	296	32	8	290	83	-5	+1	-0	-1	+5	-0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	HOU	44%	294	266	58	11	1	9	24	93	2	6	2	220	289	374	662	154	296	32	8	295	86	-5	+0	-0	-2	+6	-0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	HOU	51%	338	305	67	12	1	11	28	105	2	6	2	222	291	379	670	157	295	31	8	298	88	-5	+0	-0	-2	+7	0.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	HOU	52%	358	323	72	13	2	11	30	110	2	6	2	222	291	378	669	156	294	31	8	298	88	-5	+0	-0	-2	+8	0.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	HOU	53%	365	330	72	13	1	11	30	111	2	5	2	221	291	375	665	153	293	30	8	296	87	-6	+0	-1	-2	+8	-0.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	HOU	53%	361	326	71	13	1	11	30	111	2	5	2	219	288	368	656	149	292	31	8	293	84	-7	+0	-2	-2	+8	-0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	HOU	52%	353	319	68	12	1	10	29	110	2	4	2	216	284	360	645	145	289	31	8	288	81	-8	+0	-2	-2	+8	-0.5
2028	24	MLB CTX	HOU	30%	70	64	14	3	0	2	6	22	0	1	0	219	287	367	655	148	300	31	9	292	83	-1	+0	-0	-0	+2	-0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	HOU	44%	130	117	27	5	1	4	11	41	1	2	1	222	291	375	666	153	300	32	8	297	86	-2	+0	-0	-1	+3	-0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	HOU	51%	172	155	35	7	1	5	14	53	1	3	1	224	293	381	674	157	300	31	8	300	88	-2	+0	-0	-1	+4	0.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	HOU	52%	188	169	38	7	1	6	16	58	1	3	1	224	293	380	673	155	299	31	9	299	88	-3	+0	-0	-1	+4	0.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	HOU	53%	195	176	40	8	1	6	16	60	1	3	1	223	293	376	669	153	298	31	8	298	87	-3	+0	-1	-1	+4	-0.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	HOU	53%	190	171	38	7	1	6	16	59	1	3	1	221	290	370	660	149	296	31	8	294	84	-4	+0	-1	-1	+4	-0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	HOU	52%	184	166	36	7	1	5	15	57	1	2	1	218	286	362	648	144	294	31	8	290	81	-4	+0	-1	-1	+4	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1129	1018	228	44	6	34	94	350	6	17	6	224	293	379	673	155	303	31	8	296	86	-20	+1	-4	-7	+24	-0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	586	131	25	3	20	54	202	3	10	3	224	292	379	671	155	302	31	8	296	86	-11	+1	-2	-4	+14	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	2933	2648	587	106	10	86	243	930	14	69	24	222	291	367	657	145	303	32	8	295	86	-45	+3	-7	-15	+54	-1.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	129	23	2	19	54	206	3	15	5	220	289	363	652	143	301	32	8	295	86	-12	+1	-2	-4	+14	-0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Asheville Tourists · 291 PAwOBA .356 → .282 (−74)K% 29.2% → 38.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.21%	÷1.000	×1.310	—	—	38.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.37%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×1.012	7.51%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.770	—	×1.012	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.67%	÷1.000	×0.870	×1.047	×1.012	24.58%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷1.000	×0.780	×1.047	×1.012	7.51%
Triples /BIP	0.61%	÷1.000	×0.850	×1.047	×1.012	0.55%
Home runs /BIP	5.45%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×1.012	4.86%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.047.

Result: wOBA .356 → .282; ISO .176 → .146; BABIP .375 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Astros · 22 PAwOBA .538 → .415 (−123)K% 18.2% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.18%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	26.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.18%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.975	10.99%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.975	0.00%
Singles /BIP	46.15%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.975	36.90%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.975	5.40%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.975	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.69%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.975	5.85%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .538 → .415; ISO .235 → .187; BABIP .538 → .417. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 122 PAwOBA .400 → .328 (−72)K% 20.5% → 28.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.49%	÷0.996	×1.360	—	—	27.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.39%	÷1.072	×0.690	—	×1.015	10.71%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.00%
Singles /BIP	33.33%	÷0.979	×0.920	×0.983	×1.015	31.24%
Doubles /BIP	6.67%	÷1.035	×0.830	×0.983	×1.015	5.33%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.953	×0.910	×0.983	×1.015	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.00%	÷1.005	×0.800	—	×1.015	3.23%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 96, 2B 107, 3B 91, K 99, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .400 → .328; ISO .140 → .112; BABIP .405 → .368. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Ricky Ledee'98-'07 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,307 PA	3.5	2,307	63	29	233*	311*	398*	-19	-6	2.4	3.1
/162	664	18	8	-5.5	-1.8	0.7	pk7: 4
#3John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Carl Warwick'61-'66 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,616 PA	2.4	1,616	31	13	245*	309*	381*	-9	-1	1.4	1.4
/162	664	13	5	-3.6	-0.6	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.7	1,128	35	18	221	286	373	-7	-3	0.5	0.6
/162	664	21	10	-4.0	-1.7	0.3	pk7: 1
#6Karim Garcia'95-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,560 PA	2.3	1,560	66	10	231*	269*	413*	-16	-3	-1.0	0.1
/162	664	28	4	-6.7	-1.3	-0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ethan Frey (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	211/279/351	140	295	6	4	33%	8%	78	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jordan Beck 2024 · AA	23	43→49	51→50	50	46	220/290/383	163	296	19	13	31%	9%	89	+0.5	226/286/364	138	314	14	16	31%	8%	83	+0.1	224/283/356	132	309	13	18	30%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Jeremiah Jackson 2023 · AA	23	38→48	49→55	48→55	42	201/265/351	150	272	17	12	32%	7%	73	-0.6	221/268/376	155	290	20	15	30%	6%	80	-0.2	231/272/390	159	293	20	15	28%	5%	82	+0.0
✕Christian Franklin 2024 · A	24	43→52	44→45	46→55	46	205/298/323	118	303	12	12	33%	9%	79	-0.2	230/321/333	103	317	9	22	27%	11%	90	+0.6	232/328/329	97	317	8	25	26%	11%	88	+0.3
✕Buddy Kennedy 2022 · AA	23	44→54	48→45	50	44	223/289/360	137	297	17	12	30%	8%	84	+0.1	235/315/352	117	303	10	8	24%	9%	91	+0.7	237/323/352	115	299	9	6	22%	10%	93	+0.7
✕Jonathan Rodríguez 2014 · A	24	44→50	49→50	48→50	44	220/290/372	152	297	16	11	30%	8%	87	+0.4	225/286/338	113	301	12	9	28%	7%	77	-0.3	222/296/363	141	301	17	3	30%	9%	85	+0.2
✕Steve Selsky 2012 · A	23	44→52	49→50	48→45	45	224/289/371	147	290	17	7	28%	8%	86	+0.3	237/296/363	126	316	12	9	28%	6%	86	+0.3	253/321/358	105	358	9	4	29%	7%	93	+0.4
✕Wladimir Balentien 2007 · AA	23	41→48	52→60	48→50	40	212/274/383	170	300	20	10	35%	7%	84	+0.1	225/286/395	170	284	21	9	27%	8%	91	+0.6	226/288/399	173	273	21	8	25%	8%	92	+0.6
✕Rainel Rosario 2011 · A	22	43→51	46→50	46→50	45	210/287/351	140	302	12	8	32%	8%	81	-0.1	210/266/308	98	311	8	9	33%	6%	62	-1.4	246/301/378	133	280	16	6	18%	7%	88	+0.4
✕Nicky Delmonico 2015 · A	23	41→48	47→55	46→45	43	209/275/346	136	285	15	8	31%	8%	75	-0.5	231/288/381	150	301	14	6	27%	7%	88	+0.4	237/306/397	160	290	18	4	24%	8%	96	+0.8
✕Sandro Fabian 2021 · A	23	41→48	45→55	46→45	39	207/265/323	116	281	13	6	30%	6%	66	-1.1	230/270/389	159	266	20	4	22%	4%	84	+0.1	234/282/398	164	262	19	4	19%	5%	87	+0.3
✕Travis Demeritte 2018 · AA	23	38→46	48→55	47→50	39	193/255/339	145	296	15	9	38%	7%	65	-1.2	209/276/372	163	301	18	7	35%	8%	82	-0.0	211/277/384	173	306	21	9	36%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Brandon Boggs 2006 · A	23	41→48	48→55	48→50	48	211/283/351	140	266	16	12	26%	9%	80	-0.2	216/292/372	156	284	16	12	28%	10%	87	+0.4	214/299/380	166	284	16	11	29%	10%	91	+0.5
✕Mike Wilson 2006 · A	23	43→53	48→55	50	44	217/286/361	144	276	16	7	27%	7%	83	+0.1	215/283/379	164	304	19	6	34%	7%	86	+0.3	225/299/392	167	287	21	9	28%	8%	91	+0.4
✕John Schuknecht 2017 · A	23	43	46→55	48→50	38	213/268/350	137	299	13	11	32%	6%	74	-0.6	171/236/267	96	276	9	6	39%	6%	42	-2.9	117/189/192	75	189	9	3	42%	6%	7	-3.6
✕Dylan Crews 2024 · AA	22	48→47	47→50	42→55	40	232/299/364	132	324	14	11	31%	6%	88	+0.5	228/291/369	141	286	15	25	25%	7%	86	+0.3	223/289/367	144	276	16	26	24%	7%	84	+0.2
✕Eliseo Aldazaba 2014 · AAA	23	43→47	48→55	48→50	37	221/260/362	141	295	16	14	31%	4%	73	-0.6	229/281/377	148	290	18	13	27%	5%	84	+0.2	226/281/368	142	283	17	13	26%	5%	80	-0.1
✕Anthony García 2015 · A	23	38→48	49→55	42→45	41	199/264/349	150	255	16	5	29%	6%	72	-0.7	218/287/350	132	265	14	7	23%	7%	80	-0.1	219/291/361	142	265	17	4	24%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Ben Malgeri 2024 · AA	24	42→52	44→50	48→50	41	204/280/322	118	310	11	13	36%	8%	72	-0.7	229/292/366	137	331	13	14	32%	7%	86	+0.3	240/306/385	145	336	13	15	31%	7%	93	+0.5
●Trayce Thompson 2014 · AAA	23	37→47	48→60	52→50	39	195/259/338	144	277	16	15	35%	7%	68	-1.0	216/274/366	150	286	15	14	29%	7%	79	-0.2	203/291/407	204	286	27	7	37%	10%	95	+0.6
✕A.J. Vukovich 2024 · AA	23	44→52	47→50	53→55	37	220/264/353	133	309	15	20	33%	5%	72	-0.7	237/289/381	144	343	16	7	33%	6%	88	+0.4	242/296/390	149	347	17	2	33%	6%	89	+0.4

Ethan Frey

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps