Ethan Frey — OGILVIE

Ethan FreyOF Asheville Tourists

Age 22 R/R 6'4" / 225 lbs A+ HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION313 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†85

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP327

ISO140

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$0M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 49 / POW 56

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT49

scouting grade only

POWER56

scouting grade only

EYE53

scouting grade only

SPEED46

scouting grade only

DEFENSE47

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$3M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$4M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	122	100	33	5	0	3	20	25	0	9	5	330	442	470	912	140	405	20	16	404	159	+9	-0	—	—	+3	1.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	122	108	30	4	0	3	12	36	0	9	5	278	350	398	748	120	370	30	10	325	106	+1	-0	—	—	+3	0.3
2025	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	122	108	30	4	0	3	12	36	0	9	5	278	350	398	748	120	380	30	10	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	122	100	33	5	0	3	20	25	0	9	5	330	442	470	912	140	405	20	16	404	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	122	109	30	4	0	3	12	36	0	9	5	275	350	394	744	119	370	30	10	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	122	109	30	4	0	3	12	36	0	9	5	275	350	394	744	119	370	30	10	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	HOU	—	313	282	67	13	1	8	26	120	0	19	5	238	302	376	678	138	371	38	8	294	85	-6	+2	+0	-2	+7	0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	ROK RAW	HOU	—	22	17	8	1	0	1	4	4	0	0	0	471	571	706	1.277	235	538	18	18	527	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	A+ RAW	HOU	—	291	250	69	15	1	9	37	85	0	19	5	276	369	452	821	176	375	29	13	362	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	22	A+ MLE	HOU	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		325	33	11	294	85	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	22	A+ MLE	HOU	—	322	290	68	13	1	8	27	123	0	19	5	234	300	369	669	134	366	38	8	294	85	-6	+2	-0	-2	+7	0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	HOU	35%	298	269	61	11	1	9	26	97	1	7	2	227	297	375	673	149	320	33	9	302	90	-3	+1	-1	-2	+6	0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	HOU	46%	380	342	81	15	2	12	33	120	2	8	2	237	308	398	705	161	318	32	9	308	95	-2	+1	-2	-2	+8	0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	HOU	52%	421	379	89	16	2	14	37	130	2	8	2	235	306	398	705	164	317	31	9	312	98	-1	+1	-2	-3	+9	0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	HOU	54%	446	402	95	17	2	15	39	137	2	8	2	236	307	400	707	164	317	31	9	315	99	-0	+1	-2	-3	+10	0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	HOU	54%	454	409	97	18	2	15	40	140	2	8	2	237	308	401	709	164	316	31	9	315	99	-0	+1	-2	-3	+10	0.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	HOU	54%	455	409	96	17	2	15	41	141	2	8	2	235	308	396	704	161	316	31	9	314	98	-1	+1	-3	-3	+10	0.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	HOU	53%	448	403	94	17	2	15	40	140	2	7	2	233	306	397	703	164	315	31	9	312	97	-2	+1	-3	-3	+10	0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	HOU	52%	440	395	90	16	1	14	40	138	2	7	2	228	302	380	682	152	313	31	9	309	95	-3	+1	-4	-3	+10	0.1
2035	31	MLB MLE	HOU	52%	427	384	88	16	1	14	38	135	2	6	2	229	302	385	687	156	311	32	9	305	92	-4	+0	-5	-3	+9	-0.1
2036	32	MLB MLE	HOU	52%	409	367	82	14	1	13	37	131	2	6	2	223	298	373	671	150	307	32	9	299	89	-6	+0	-5	-2	+9	-0.4
2027	23	MLB CTX	HOU	35%	103	93	21	4	0	3	9	33	0	3	1	226	294	366	660	140	322	32	9	299	90	-1	+0	-0	-1	+2	0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	HOU	46%	176	158	37	7	1	5	15	56	1	4	1	234	305	386	691	152	321	32	9	305	95	-1	+0	-1	-1	+4	0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	HOU	52%	218	196	47	9	1	7	19	68	1	4	1	240	310	403	713	163	319	31	9	309	98	-1	+0	-1	-1	+5	0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	HOU	54%	242	218	52	10	1	8	21	74	1	4	1	239	308	404	712	165	319	31	9	311	99	-0	+0	-1	-1	+5	0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	HOU	54%	246	221	53	10	1	8	22	76	1	4	1	240	311	403	714	163	318	31	9	311	99	-0	+0	-1	-1	+5	0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	HOU	54%	247	222	53	10	1	8	22	77	1	4	1	239	310	401	711	162	318	31	9	310	98	-0	+0	-1	-1	+5	0.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	HOU	53%	238	214	50	9	1	8	21	74	1	4	1	234	305	397	702	164	317	31	9	308	97	-1	+0	-2	-1	+5	0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	HOU	52%	231	207	48	9	1	7	21	73	1	4	1	232	306	386	692	155	316	32	9	305	95	-1	+0	-2	-1	+5	0.1
2035	31	MLB CTX	HOU	52%	222	199	46	8	1	7	20	70	1	3	1	231	305	387	691	156	313	32	9	301	92	-2	+0	-2	-1	+5	-0.1
2036	32	MLB CTX	HOU	52%	212	190	43	8	1	6	19	68	1	3	1	226	300	374	674	147	309	32	9	296	89	-3	+0	-3	-1	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2135	1918	450	84	9	67	189	669	9	37	10	235	306	393	699	158	321	31	9	306	96	-11	+3	-14	-13	+46	1.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	584	137	26	3	20	58	204	3	11	3	235	307	392	700	158	322	31	9	306	96	-3	+1	-4	-4	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	4309	3875	904	161	16	139	384	1348	19	82	25	233	306	391	696	157	318	31	9	310	96	-22	+7	-28	-25	+91	2.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	585	136	24	2	21	58	203	3	12	4	232	305	388	693	156	316	31	9	310	96	-3	+1	-4	-4	+14	0.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Scott Hairstonlast yr '14 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,624 PA	4.0	2,624	106	36	242	297	444	-18	-16	6.0	6.6
/162	664	27	9	-4.5	-4.1	1.5	pk7: 7
#2Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#4Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Nomar Mazaralast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,690 PA	4.1	2,690	85	7	256	315	414	-29	-21	3.7	3.7
/162	664	21	2	-7.1	-5.3	0.9	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	3.2	2,135	69	37	234	303	393	-13	-6	3.8	3.5
/162	664	22	12	-4.0	-1.9	1.2	pk7: 3
#6John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ethan Frey (OGILVIE)	22	39→49	47→56	38→46	53	223/291/361	138	325	5	7	34%	8%	85	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Justyn-Henry Malloy 2022 · A	22	45→55	44→50	47→45	48	222/295/339	117	300	12	10	29%	9%	81	-0.1	232/323/370	138	327	16	5	31%	11%	99	+1.2	232/338/377	145	320	16	5	30%	12%	104	+1.4
✕Rainel Rosario 2011 · A	22	43→52	46→50	46→50	44	209/286/349	139	300	12	8	32%	8%	80	-0.2	209/265/306	97	310	8	9	33%	6%	61	-1.5	249/305/384	135	283	16	6	18%	7%	91	+0.5
✕Noelvi Marte 2023 · A	21	44→53	48→50	49→55	46	223/293/360	136	290	16	16	28%	8%	85	+0.2	236/289/364	128	302	14	19	25%	6%	84	+0.1	242/290/375	133	303	14	21	24%	5%	85	+0.1
✕Heriberto Hernández 2022 · A	22	44→48	48→60	45→50	42	212/294/358	146	333	16	7	38%	9%	85	+0.2	206/285/356	150	316	18	6	38%	9%	82	-0.0	219/301/418	199	277	26	10	30%	9%	100	+1.0
●Nolan Reimold 2007 · A	23	41→51	51→55	45→50	46	212/290/370	158	282	19	11	31%	9%	86	+0.3	242/309/413	171	291	20	9	23%	8%	103	+1.6	260/330/444	185	296	22	9	20%	8%	115	+1.9
✕Andrés Chaparro 2022 · A	23	43→49	48→55	43→40	47	217/299/360	143	289	15	5	29%	9%	87	+0.4	226/290/392	166	277	20	5	26%	7%	91	+0.7	235/306/419	184	277	23	3	24%	8%	101	+1.0
✕Nicky Delmonico 2014 · A	22	39→47	48→50	48→45	46	203/280/344	141	266	16	8	30%	9%	77	-0.3	216/272/353	137	293	13	6	29%	7%	76	-0.4	230/299/381	151	284	16	4	24%	8%	89	+0.4
✕Kyle Lewis 2018 · A	23	44→48	47→55	48→40	40	218/275/347	128	309	16	7	34%	6%	75	-0.5	225/280/366	141	320	16	5	33%	7%	81	-0.1	242/314/397	155	338	20	6	32%	9%	99	+0.7
✕Brandon Boggs 2006 · A	23	41→48	48→55	48→50	48	211/283/351	140	266	16	12	26%	9%	80	-0.2	216/292/371	155	285	16	12	28%	9%	87	+0.4	214/299/379	165	285	16	11	29%	10%	90	+0.4
●Jonathan Rodríguez 2012 · A	22	41→51	50	41→50	48	213/299/367	153	274	17	5	28%	9%	89	+0.5	219/288/361	142	301	15	8	31%	8%	84	+0.1	227/303/369	142	310	17	3	30%	9%	90	+0.4
●Edward Olivares 2018 · A	22	42→52	47→55	51→55	38	215/264/357	142	271	14	12	26%	4%	74	-0.6	225/266/350	125	282	13	17	24%	4%	72	-0.7	262/319/433	171	298	19	16	19%	6%	108	+1.2
●Jonathan India 2019 · A	22	42→52	45→50	51→50	44	205/288/330	125	297	12	10	33%	9%	76	-0.4	221/310/345	124	301	12	10	29%	9%	88	+0.5	247/345/400	152	300	17	11	22%	10%	111	+1.9
✕Mike Wilson 2006 · A	23	43→53	48→55	50	44	217/286/361	144	276	16	7	27%	7%	83	+0.1	214/282/376	162	303	19	6	34%	7%	85	+0.2	227/301/395	168	289	21	9	28%	9%	93	+0.5
✕Connor Norby 2022 · A	22	48→49	42→55	48→50	45	226/302/334	109	325	10	11	31%	9%	82	+0.0	234/295/389	155	306	18	11	28%	7%	92	+0.7	239/312/395	156	325	18	14	30%	8%	98	+1.0
✕Steve Selsky 2012 · A	23	45→52	49→45	48→45	45	226/292/376	149	293	17	7	28%	8%	88	+0.5	239/298/365	126	319	12	9	28%	6%	88	+0.4	249/317/346	97	354	7	4	29%	7%	89	+0.3
✕Matt Vierling 2019 · A	22	47→55	46→50	43→50	38	235/279/367	132	301	13	9	26%	4%	81	-0.1	208/262/305	97	279	9	14	27%	6%	61	-1.5	254/314/393	138	307	13	10	21%	7%	97	+1.0
✕Jason Martin 2017 · A	21	42→49	47→60	48→50	44	214/273/351	137	280	14	13	28%	7%	75	-0.5	224/270/363	139	299	14	12	28%	6%	76	-0.4	219/286/408	189	272	25	8	29%	8%	91	+0.4
✕Jabari Henry 2013 · A	22	42→41	46→55	49→45	44	211/272/346	135	274	13	6	28%	7%	74	-0.6	207/286/361	154	270	17	6	28%	9%	83	+0.1	192/278/355	163	249	19	6	30%	10%	76	-0.3
✕Isiah Gilliam 2018 · A	22	42→48	47→55	46→55	40	212/265/349	137	290	14	6	31%	6%	72	-0.7	196/248/314	118	321	13	7	40%	6%	57	-1.8	219/301/387	168	339	20	19	38%	9%	91	+0.4
●Jerry Sands 2009 · A	21	35→45	50→60	51→45	45	191/275/338	147	260	19	8	33%	9%	74	-0.5	230/295/419	189	285	24	6	28%	8%	100	+1.3	230/295/426	197	277	25	7	26%	8%	100	+1.2

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps