Ethan Frey — OGILVIE

Ethan FreyOF Asheville Tourists

Age 22 R/R 6'4" / 225 lbs A+ HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION240 act + 160 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†81

AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .296 / .361

PA160

HR4

SB5

K%34

BB%9

BABIP322

ISO139

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 49 / POW 57

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT49

scouting grade only

POWER57

scouting grade only

EYE53

scouting grade only

SPEED46

scouting grade only

DEFENSE47

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.5M
2033	Arb-3	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$11M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	122	109	31	4	0	3	11	36	0	9	5	284	350	404	754	119	389	30	9	325	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	122	100	33	5	0	3	20	25	0	9	5	330	442	470	912	140	405	20	16	404	167	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	A+	HOU	—	240	214	48	9	1	5	22	94	0	13	4	224	297	346	642	121	361	39	9	280	72	-8	+1	+0	-1	+7	-0.1
YTD	22	A+	HOU	—	240	202	55	11	1	6	34	70	0	13	4	272	377	426	803	153	377	29	14	356	131	+8	+1	+0	-1	+7	1.5
ROS	22	A+	HOU	0%	160	144	32	6	1	4	14	54	1	5	2	222	296	361	657	139	316	34	9	292	81	-3	+0	-1	-1	+5	-0.0
ROS	22	MLB	HOU	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						319	0	0	291	81	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	22	A+	HOU	—	241	215	48	9	1	5	22	94	0	13	4	223	295	344	640	121	358	39	9	280	72	-8	+1	-0	-1	+7	-0.1
TOT	22	A+	HOU	—	400	358	80	15	2	9	36	148	1	18	6	223	296	352	648	128	345	37	9	284	76	-11	+1	-1	-2	+11	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	HOU	35%	324	291	66	12	2	9	28	105	2	7	2	227	299	375	674	148	313	32	9	299	87	-5	+1	-1	-2	+9	0.2
2028	24	MLB	HOU	46%	400	360	83	15	2	12	35	126	2	8	2	231	302	383	686	153	313	32	9	305	92	-4	+1	-1	-2	+11	0.5
2029	25	MLB	HOU	52%	434	390	90	16	2	14	38	135	3	8	2	231	304	390	694	159	312	31	9	309	95	-2	+1	-1	-3	+12	0.7
2030	26	MLB	HOU	54%	455	409	95	17	2	15	40	140	3	8	2	232	305	394	699	161	311	31	9	312	97	-2	+1	-1	-3	+13	0.8
2031	27	MLB	HOU	54%	459	412	95	17	2	15	41	142	3	8	2	231	305	391	696	160	311	31	9	312	97	-2	+1	-1	-3	+13	0.8
2032	28	MLB	HOU	54%	458	410	95	17	2	15	42	142	3	8	2	232	308	393	700	161	311	31	9	311	96	-2	+1	-2	-3	+13	0.7
2033	29	MLB	HOU	53%	450	403	93	16	2	15	41	140	3	7	2	231	306	392	699	161	310	31	9	309	95	-3	+1	-3	-3	+13	0.5
2034	30	MLB	HOU	52%	441	395	90	16	2	14	40	139	3	7	2	228	304	385	688	157	308	32	9	306	92	-4	+1	-4	-3	+12	0.3
2035	31	MLB	HOU	52%	428	383	86	15	2	13	39	136	3	6	2	225	301	376	677	151	306	32	9	302	89	-5	+0	-4	-3	+12	0.1
2036	32	MLB	HOU	52%	410	368	80	14	1	12	37	132	2	6	2	217	292	359	651	141	302	32	9	296	85	-7	+0	-5	-2	+12	-0.2
2027	23	MLB	HOU	35%	112	100	23	4	1	3	10	36	1	2	1	230	306	380	686	150	316	32	9	298	86	-2	+0	-0	-1	+3	0.0
2028	24	MLB	HOU	46%	185	166	39	7	1	6	16	58	1	4	1	235	306	398	704	163	316	31	9	304	91	-2	+0	-1	-1	+5	0.2
2029	25	MLB	HOU	52%	224	201	46	8	1	7	20	69	1	4	1	229	302	383	685	154	315	31	9	309	94	-1	+0	-1	-1	+6	0.3
2030	26	MLB	HOU	54%	247	221	51	9	1	8	22	76	2	4	1	231	306	389	695	158	315	31	9	311	96	-1	+0	-1	-1	+7	0.4
2031	27	MLB	HOU	54%	249	223	52	9	1	9	22	77	2	4	1	233	308	404	711	170	314	31	9	311	96	-1	+0	-1	-1	+7	0.4
2032	28	MLB	HOU	54%	249	222	51	9	1	8	23	77	2	4	1	230	308	387	695	158	314	31	9	310	95	-1	+0	-1	-1	+7	0.4
2033	29	MLB	HOU	53%	239	214	50	9	1	8	22	75	1	4	1	234	308	397	705	164	313	31	9	308	94	-2	+0	-2	-1	+7	0.3
2034	30	MLB	HOU	52%	231	207	48	8	1	8	21	73	1	4	1	232	306	396	702	164	311	32	9	305	92	-2	+0	-2	-1	+7	0.2
2035	31	MLB	HOU	52%	223	200	45	8	1	7	20	71	1	3	1	225	299	380	679	155	309	32	9	301	89	-3	+0	-2	-1	+6	0.0
2036	32	MLB	HOU	52%	212	190	43	7	1	7	19	68	1	3	1	226	300	384	684	158	305	32	9	296	84	-4	+0	-2	-1	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2172	1945	448	78	10	71	195	680	13	36	10	230	305	390	695	160	313	31	9	306	92	-19	+3	-12	-13	+62	2.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	133	23	3	21	58	203	4	11	3	229	303	387	689	158	310	31	9	306	92	-6	+1	-4	-4	+18	0.6
Career	—			—	4541	4074	936	165	20	141	406	1427	28	87	27	230	304	384	688	154	314	31	9	307	93	-37	+7	-25	-27	+129	4.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	134	24	3	20	58	204	4	12	4	230	303	384	688	154	315	31	9	307	93	-5	+1	-4	-4	+18	0.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	122	100	33	5	0	3	20	25	0	9	5	330	442	470	912	140	405	20	16	404	167	+9	-0	—	—	+3	1.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#3Eric Karroslast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,197 PA	5	2,197	73	13	255	317	418	-19	-17	3.9	3.9
	/162	664	22	4	255	317	418	-5.7	-5.2	1.2	pk7: 4
#4Shane Halterlast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,744 PA	5	1,744	41	11	247	305	396	-6	+8	3.9	3.9
	/162	664	16	4	247	305	396	-2.1	+3.0	1.5	pk7: 4
#5Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	2,172	69	37	230	301	387	-13	-6	3.1	2.9
	/162	664	21	11	230	301	387	-4.0	-1.8	0.9	pk7: 3
#6John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	6	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	24	7	234	298	417	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ethan Frey (OGILVIE)	22	42→49	51→57	42→46	53	223/296/352	128	345	9	18	37%	9%	76	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael Choice 2012 · A	22	45→53	50	45→40	42	226/289/385	159	307	18	7	32%	7%	89	+0.9	231/294/360	129	308	15	5	28%	7%	83	+0.6	226/295/346	120	295	15	3	27%	7%	79	+0.2
✕Noelvi Marte 2023 · A	21	44→53	49→50	49→55	46	224/295/363	140	285	17	16	27%	8%	85	+0.7	236/289/367	131	301	14	19	25%	6%	82	+0.5	242/290/380	137	303	15	21	25%	5%	84	+0.4
●Nolan Reimold 2007 · A	23	41→51	51→60	45→50	46	212/290/370	158	282	19	11	31%	9%	85	+0.7	244/311/425	181	293	22	9	24%	8%	108	+2.3	262/332/461	198	298	24	9	20%	8%	122	+2.5
✕Steve Selsky 2012 · A	23	45→52	49→50	48→45	45	226/292/376	149	293	17	7	28%	8%	87	+0.8	237/295/357	120	319	11	9	28%	6%	82	+0.5	252/319/358	106	361	10	4	30%	7%	91	+0.6
●Andrés Chaparro 2022 · A	23	43→49	48→60	43→40	47	217/299/360	143	289	15	5	29%	9%	85	+0.7	229/293/410	181	279	23	5	26%	7%	96	+1.5	231/292/422	191	271	25	4	25%	7%	96	+1.2
✕Heriberto Hernández 2021 · A	21	46→49	51→60	46→50	45	228/304/400	172	318	18	6	32%	9%	98	+1.6	207/286/350	143	335	16	6	40%	9%	78	+0.2	221/302/428	208	278	28	9	31%	9%	103	+1.2
✕Wes Clarke 2022 · A	22	44→40	49→55	45→40	51	217/319/365	148	296	17	6	30%	11%	96	+1.5	191/291/356	165	298	20	4	39%	11%	82	+0.5	193/298/365	172	291	22	4	38%	12%	86	+0.6
✕Aaron Luna 2009 · A	22	42→44	50	51→45	45	210/316/367	157	290	18	7	32%	8%	96	+1.5	216/319/370	154	271	17	7	26%	8%	98	+1.6	214/320/367	152	267	17	7	25%	8%	95	+0.9
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2007 · A	23	42→48	49→55	49→50	43	216/280/366	151	284	17	7	30%	7%	79	+0.3	207/260/378	171	259	21	9	29%	6%	74	-0.1	243/295/401	158	287	19	12	22%	6%	91	+0.9
●Christin Stewart 2016 · A	22	46→50	48→60	49→45	41	228/296/373	145	308	15	8	30%	6%	88	+0.9	208/287/372	164	279	20	3	31%	9%	85	+0.7	231/305/421	189	283	24	1	27%	8%	101	+1.5
●Kyle Lewis 2018 · A	23	44→52	49→55	48→40	39	220/277/358	138	311	18	7	34%	6%	76	+0.0	234/287/396	162	330	20	5	33%	7%	90	+1.0	255/325/436	182	353	25	6	33%	9%	113	+1.4
●Rainel Rosario 2011 · A	22	43→51	46→50	46→50	45	209/286/347	138	300	12	8	32%	8%	77	+0.1	207/263/307	100	309	8	9	33%	6%	56	-1.3	245/301/390	145	278	18	6	19%	7%	90	+0.8
●Mike Wilson 2006 · A	23	43→53	48→60	50	44	217/286/361	144	276	16	7	27%	7%	81	+0.4	214/282/383	169	306	21	6	35%	7%	85	+0.7	233/307/410	177	297	22	9	28%	9%	98	+1.0
●Jonathan Rodríguez 2012 · A	22	41→50	50→55	41→50	48	212/293/368	156	263	18	5	26%	8%	85	+0.7	218/285/366	148	299	16	8	31%	7%	81	+0.4	229/307/382	153	312	19	3	31%	9%	93	+1.0
●Todd Frazier 2009 · A	23	46→51	48→60	46→50	44	231/291/377	146	296	16	8	27%	7%	86	+0.8	229/281/381	152	287	16	11	25%	6%	83	+0.6	243/310/454	211	268	30	14	22%	8%	112	+2.9
✕Nicky Delmonico 2014 · A	22	38→47	50→55	48→45	46	202/278/350	148	263	18	8	30%	8%	75	-0.0	219/275/367	148	299	15	6	30%	7%	77	+0.1	232/301/393	160	284	18	4	24%	8%	91	+0.9
✕Eddys Leonard 2023 · A	22	44→47	48→55	44→50	42	222/291/369	146	290	16	5	28%	6%	85	+0.7	222/279/379	157	280	19	8	27%	5%	82	+0.5	216/269/391	176	255	23	12	26%	5%	79	+0.2
✕Josh Elander 2014 · A	23	48→50	48→50	48→45	43	240/293/385	145	306	16	7	27%	6%	89	+1.0	220/285/328	108	295	10	9	27%	7%	71	-0.3	172/253/245	72	244	5	14	29%	9%	37	-0.7
✕Nick Weglarz 2009 · A	21	45→47	48→55	45	49	225/304/366	140	296	15	6	28%	9%	89	+1.0	222/311/381	159	278	17	5	25%	10%	96	+1.5	210/311/380	169	257	19	2	25%	11%	94	+0.7
●Vinnie Catricala 2011 · A	22	48→55	48→55	46→45	42	239/294/382	143	301	16	6	26%	6%	89	+1.0	235/286/374	139	288	15	8	23%	5%	83	+0.6	223/273/352	129	272	14	7	23%	5%	70	-0.3