Buddy Kennedy — OGILVIE

Buddy Kennedy1B Sacramento River Cats

Age 27 R/R 5'10" / 213 lbs AAA HR -8%H -3% Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION234 act + 156 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†113

AVG/OBP/SLG.254 / .335 / .428

PA156

HR5

SB6

K%19

BB%9

BABIP286

ISO174

MLB%45%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT60

Whiff%

877.2%

xwOBA

200.273

POWER45

Barrel%

396.7

Avg EV

1686.5

Bat Spd

3669.9

EYE55

Chase%

9020.1%

SPEED45

Sprint

8128.7

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.3M
2027	Arb-3	$10M	+1.9	$14M	+$5M
Totals		$11M		$15M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	18	ROK	ACL D-backs	—	201	185	34	6	5	0	12	68	2	7	2	184	241	270	511	86	286	34	6	225	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK	ACL D-backs	—	201	178	48	9	8	0	19	47	2	7	2	270	347	410	757	140	361	23	9	335	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK	Missoula Osprey	—	255	236	55	11	1	3	16	49	1	2	0	233	285	326	611	93	280	19	6	268	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK	Missoula Osprey	—	255	226	74	17	1	4	26	34	1	2	0	327	399	465	864	137	368	13	10	383	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A	Kane County Cougars	—	438	405	84	17	3	7	27	113	2	4	4	207	260	316	576	109	266	26	6	254	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A	Kane County Cougars	—	438	385	101	18	4	7	47	81	2	4	4	262	346	384	730	122	312	18	11	328	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA	3 teams	—	470	420	85	8	2	15	40	164	6	16	4	202	281	338	619	136	286	35	9	272	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA	3 teams	—	470	403	114	14	2	24	57	114	6	16	4	283	380	506	886	223	335	24	12	388	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA	2 teams	—	488	430	89	13	4	7	45	120	4	8	4	207	288	305	593	98	263	25	9	267	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA	2 teams	—	488	413	104	16	5	8	62	99	4	8	4	252	355	373	728	121	305	20	13	327	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA	2 teams	—	492	427	101	17	5	4	51	107	10	3	3	237	332	328	660	91	303	22	10	300	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA	2 teams	—	492	398	119	25	8	5	80	87	10	3	3	299	428	440	868	141	368	18	16	390	157	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA	2 teams	—	489	431	104	29	1	13	43	103	8	5	2	241	322	404	725	162	283	21	9	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA	2 teams	—	489	410	110	32	1	14	64	91	8	5	2	268	378	454	831	185	308	19	13	367	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA	2 teams	—	416	369	82	12	1	10	33	76	11	4	1	222	305	341	647	119	252	18	8	287	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA	2 teams	—	416	357	94	18	1	8	45	63	11	4	1	263	363	387	750	123	298	15	11	340	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	27	AAA	SF	—	234	206	51	13	1	6	21	40	6	5	0	248	335	408	743	160	281	17	9	326	108	+2	+1	+0	+1	+7	1.1
YTD	27	AAA	SF	—	234	198	60	16	1	8	29	32	6	5	0	303	408	515	923	212	329	14	12	407	169	+18	+1	+0	+1	+7	2.7
ROS	27	AAA	SF	45%	156	138	35	7	1	5	14	29	3	6	1	254	335	428	763	174	284	19	9	333	113	+2	+1	-0	+1	+4	0.8
ROS	27	MLB	SF	45%	70	62	15	3	0	2	6	13	2	2	0	242	329	387	716	145	279	19	9	311	96	-0	+0	-0	+0	+2	0.2
FULL	27	AAA	SF	—	304	268	66	16	1	8	27	53	8	7	0	246	333	403	736	157	280	17	9	323	105	+2	+1	-0	+1	+9	1.3
TOT	27	AAA	SF	—	390	344	86	20	2	11	35	69	9	11	1	250	335	416	751	166	283	18	9	329	110	+4	+2	-0	+1	+11	1.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	SF	60%	392	347	86	18	1	12	34	76	8	13	2	248	329	409	738	161	283	19	9	331	111	+5	+2	-1	+1	+11	1.8
2028	29	MLB	SF	65%	390	345	85	17	1	12	34	77	8	12	2	246	328	406	734	159	283	20	9	328	109	+4	+2	-2	+1	+11	1.6
2029	30	MLB	SF	68%	388	343	83	17	1	11	34	78	8	11	2	242	325	394	718	152	282	20	9	325	107	+3	+1	-3	+1	+11	1.4
2030	31	MLB	SF	69%	373	330	80	16	1	11	33	77	7	9	1	242	324	397	721	155	280	21	9	320	103	+1	+1	-3	+1	+11	1.2
2031	32	MLB	SF	70%	354	313	74	15	1	10	31	74	7	7	1	236	319	387	706	150	276	21	9	314	99	-1	+1	-4	+1	+10	0.8
2032	33	MLB	SF	77%	324	287	67	13	1	9	28	70	6	5	1	233	315	380	694	146	271	22	9	306	93	-3	+1	-5	+1	+9	0.4
2027	28	MLB	SF	60%	234	206	50	10	1	7	21	45	5	8	1	243	328	403	730	160	278	19	9	309	95	-1	+1	-1	+1	+7	0.7
2028	29	MLB	SF	65%	253	224	54	11	1	7	22	50	5	8	1	241	323	393	716	152	278	20	9	308	94	-2	+1	-1	+1	+7	0.6
2029	30	MLB	SF	68%	263	233	55	11	1	7	23	53	5	7	1	236	318	382	700	146	277	20	9	305	91	-3	+1	-2	+1	+7	0.5
2030	31	MLB	SF	69%	259	229	54	11	1	7	23	53	5	6	1	236	319	384	703	148	275	20	9	301	88	-3	+1	-2	+1	+7	0.3
2031	32	MLB	SF	70%	249	220	52	10	1	7	22	52	5	5	1	236	320	386	706	150	271	21	9	295	84	-5	+1	-3	+1	+7	0.1
2032	33	MLB	SF	77%	250	221	49	9	1	6	22	54	5	4	1	222	306	353	659	131	266	22	9	287	78	-6	+0	-4	+1	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1759	1552	357	70	8	45	157	364	35	41	6	230	315	372	687	142	271	21	9	296	85	-30	+6	-11	+12	+50	2.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	574	132	26	3	17	58	135	13	15	2	230	315	375	689	145	271	21	9	296	85	-11	+2	-4	+5	+18	1.0
Career	—			—	5626	5006	1144	216	29	129	475	1281	91	112	30	229	307	361	667	132	279	23	8	297	85	-93	+10	-16	+20	+159	8.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	132	25	3	15	55	148	11	13	3	228	308	360	668	131	278	23	8	297	85	-11	+1	-2	+2	+18	1.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	18	ROK	ACL D-backs	—	201	178	48	9	8	0	19	47	2	7	2	270	347	410	757	140	361	23	9	335	114	+3	+1	—	—	+6	1.0
2018	19	ROK	Missoula Osprey	—	255	226	74	17	1	4	26	34	1	2	0	327	399	465	864	137	368	13	10	383	151	+15	+0	—	—	+7	2.3
2019	20	A	Kane County Cougars	—	438	385	101	18	4	7	47	81	2	4	4	262	346	384	730	122	312	18	11	328	109	+4	-1	—	—	+12	1.6
2021	22	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	279	237	66	6	2	17	39	73	2	7	2	278	385	536	921	257	331	26	14	402	166	+21	+1	—	—	+8	3.0
2021	22	A+	Hillsboro Hops	—	127	111	35	5	0	5	11	25	3	9	2	315	392	495	887	180	361	20	9	388	155	+8	+1	—	—	+4	1.3
2021	22	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	64	55	13	3	0	2	7	16	1	0	0	236	333	400	733	164	289	25	11	326	108	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.2
2022	23	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	94	83	18	2	2	1	8	23	1	0	0	217	293	325	619	108	279	24	9	276	70	-3	+0	+1	+2	+3	0.2
2022	23	AAA	Reno Aces	—	394	330	86	14	3	7	54	76	3	8	4	261	370	385	754	124	311	19	14	339	117	+8	+0	—	—	+11	1.9
2023	24	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	29	24	4	1	0	0	4	6	1	0	0	167	310	208	519	42	222	21	14	259	57	-1	+0	+1	+2	+1	0.2
2023	24	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	463	374	115	24	8	5	76	81	9	3	3	307	436	455	890	147	377	17	16	398	163	+33	-1	—	—	+13	4.6
2024	25	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	26	21	4	1	0	1	4	7	0	1	0	190	320	381	701	190	214	27	15	306	93	-0	+0	+1	+2	+1	0.4
2024	25	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	463	389	106	31	1	13	60	84	8	4	2	272	381	458	838	185	312	18	13	370	141	+22	+0	—	—	+13	3.6
2025	26	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	32	29	2	1	0	0	2	8	1	0	0	69	156	103	260	34	95	25	6	135	-38	-5	+0	-1	+1	+1	-0.3
2025	26	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	384	328	92	17	1	8	43	55	10	4	1	280	381	412	792	131	313	14	11	357	132	+14	+0	—	—	+11	2.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	181	157	28	5	2	2	18	44	3	1	0	178	275	274	549	96	228	24	10	253	52	-10	+0	+2	+7	+5	0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Emil Brownlast yr '08 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,335 PA	6	2,335	57	47	263	326	406	-24	-8	5.3	5.3
#1Emil Brownlast yr '08 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,335 PA	/162	664	16	13	263	326	406	-6.7	-2.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#2Gabe Grosslast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,682 PA	7	1,682	40	22	239	330	385	-14	+11	5.1	5.1
#2Gabe Grosslast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,682 PA	/162	664	16	9	239	330	385	-5.7	+4.4	2.0	pk7: 5
#3Ricky Ledeelast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,897 PA	7	1,897	52	21	239	323	404	-8	-6	5.0	5.0
	/162	664	18	7	239	323	404	-2.9	-2.1	1.7	pk7: 5
#4Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	8	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
	/162	664	23	9	238	296	413	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Nate Schierholtzlast yr '14 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,275 PA	8	2,275	52	30	253	302	405	-24	-6	2.0	2.8
	/162	664	15	9	253	302	405	-7.1	-1.8	0.6	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	1,715	48	42	241	319	393	-26	+4	2.5	2.5
	/162	664	19	16	241	319	393	-10.1	+1.4	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Travis Sniderlast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,971 PA	8	1,971	54	22	244	311	399	-21	-17	1.4	1.8
	/162	664	18	7	244	311	399	-7.1	-5.8	0.5	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Buddy Kennedy (OGILVIE)	27	60	45	45	55	250/335/416	166	283	11	11	18%	9%	110	+1.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Edward Olivares 2023 · MLB	27	50→55	50→55	45→55	45	254/309/410	156	293	19	13	20%	6%	102	+1.9	255/313/415	160	291	18	16	19%	6%	105	+2.1	255/316/420	165	287	19	18	18%	6%	106	+1.3
●Juan Encarnacion 2004 · MLB	28	52→58	52→55	51→50	49	263/312/436	173	283	19	17	15%	6%	111	+2.5	263/318/430	167	291	18	9	16%	7%	111	+2.5	265/321/428	163	294	18	6	16%	6%	107	+2.1
✕Ben Francisco 2010 · MLB	28	51→56	51→55	47→55	50	256/321/424	168	291	18	14	19%	8%	111	+2.5	246/318/398	152	282	15	12	18%	8%	103	+1.9	240/312/377	136	278	13	10	18%	8%	92	+0.5
✕Desmond Jennings 2014 · MLB	27	49→59	49→50	57→60	53	246/323/405	159	288	16	24	20%	10%	107	+2.2	235/308/375	140	281	14	16	20%	9%	93	+1.3	225/299/356	131	269	13	15	21%	9%	82	+0.3
✕Michael Taylor 2012 · MLB	26	49→59	48→55	51→50	46	246/304/392	146	297	16	16	23%	7%	95	+1.4	241/309/372	131	304	14	12	24%	8%	92	+1.2	240/312/365	125	305	12	10	24%	8%	90	+0.9
●Randy Arozarena 2021 · MLB	26	52→57	54→55	51→55	44	262/336/446	184	324	22	23	25%	6%	124	+3.4	263/342/453	190	333	21	22	26%	9%	128	+3.6	259/347/445	186	326	21	23	25%	10%	124	+3.6
●Thairo Estrada 2023 · MLB	27	54→59	51→55	51→55	48	271/331/433	163	301	19	18	17%	6%	118	+3.0	259/304/404	145	304	16	15	20%	5%	98	+1.6	254/293/388	134	301	15	14	21%	4%	87	+0.6
●Nick Solak 2021 · MLB	26	50→60	50	50	48	253/320/400	148	306	18	12	23%	8%	105	+2.1	244/315/373	129	298	14	10	22%	7%	96	+1.5	279/339/406	128	322	15	11	18%	6%	111	+1.6
✕Larry Bigbie 2005 · MLB	27	56	49→50	49→50	51	277/338/425	148	329	17	11	21%	9%	118	+3.0	250/313/375	125	318	12	9	24%	8%	95	+1.4	243/304/351	108	316	8	8	24%	8%	81	+0.2
●Luis Terrero 2007 · MLB	27	50→60	50→60	48→55	42	253/306/410	157	306	18	19	24%	5%	102	+1.8	252/312/417	165	309	18	16	24%	6%	106	+2.2	284/355/500	216	343	27	23	24%	7%	142	+3.1
✕Nolan Reimold 2011 · MLB	27	47→57	49→60	49→50	52	239/315/386	147	272	17	10	19%	9%	98	+1.6	224/293/379	155	268	19	10	24%	8%	88	+0.9	234/310/359	125	308	13	5	27%	9%	87	+0.4
●Harrison Bader 2021 · MLB	27	46→56	53→55	54→55	49	233/326/413	180	306	20	16	29%	10%	111	+2.5	246/305/401	155	293	17	20	22%	7%	98	+1.6	242/304/399	157	300	20	16	25%	6%	96	+0.9
✕Chris Aguila 2006 · MLB	27	51→54	50→55	51→50	45	256/298/414	158	300	17	14	21%	6%	98	+1.6	247/293/387	140	307	15	12	24%	6%	89	+1.0	222/284/393	171	285	22	8	29%	7%	84	+0.5
●César Puello 2018 · MLB	27	54→59	46→50	55	43	260/324/388	128	341	13	24	26%	6%	103	+1.9	265/345/388	123	347	13	12	26%	7%	112	+2.6	256/351/360	104	342	10	10	25%	7%	105	+1.0
●Lane Thomas 2023 · MLB	27	47→52	51→55	46→55	49	238/307/401	164	294	18	10	25%	9%	99	+1.7	246/308/421	175	307	20	20	26%	7%	105	+2.1	243/306/418	176	303	21	25	26%	7%	102	+1.4
●Ian Desmond 2013 · MLB	27	54→61	50→60	53→55	44	270/314/431	161	317	17	21	21%	6%	110	+2.4	264/316/436	172	328	20	19	25%	7%	112	+2.6	253/310/418	165	322	19	18	26%	7%	103	+2.1
●Adam Jones 2013 · MLB	27	53→55	55→60	47→50	44	273/319/457	184	301	23	12	18%	5%	119	+3.1	270/308/459	189	300	25	10	19%	4%	116	+2.8	267/303/454	186	295	25	7	19%	3%	108	+2.5
●Felipe Lopez 2007 · MLB	27	55→65	47→55	54→55	55	272/346/415	142	317	14	24	18%	10%	118	+3.0	270/337/385	115	316	9	17	16%	9%	107	+2.2	276/344/384	108	321	8	12	15%	9%	106	+2.2
✕Gabe Kapler 2002 · MLB	27	55→60	51→55	51→55	58	274/347/442	168	288	18	18	13%	10%	126	+3.5	267/323/396	129	303	11	16	15%	7%	104	+2.0	262/332/433	171	289	17	8	15%	9%	115	+1.0
●Brandon Guyer 2013 · MLB	27	53→57	50→55	55	44	266/318/430	165	306	17	18	19%	5%	111	+2.5	250/314/374	124	297	9	18	18%	5%	95	+1.4	262/354/403	142	303	12	11	16%	6%	118	+1.7