Buddy Kennedy

3B Rochester Red Wings

Age 28 R/R 5'10" / 213 lbs AAA Svc 0.842 · Ctrl thru 2032

Overview

AAAPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	25	AAAPHI	463	.272/.381/.458	13	4	94	—	.238/.319/.382
2024	25	MLBPHI	26	.190/.320/.381	1	1	90	0.3
2025	26	AAATOR	384	.280/.381/.412	8	4	82	—	.232/.312/.334
2025	26	MLBLAD	32	.069/.156/.103	0	0	-19	-0.3
2026	27	AAAWSH	273	.291/.399/.491	9	6	99	—	.241/.325/.382
2026	27	MLBSF	49	.116/.224/.140	0	0	13	-0.3
2027PROJ10% MLB	28	MLBWSH	24	.236/.316/.391	1	1	100	0.1
2028PROJ33% MLB	29	MLBWSH	87	.233/.313/.384	3	3	98	0.2
2029PROJ46% MLB	30	MLBWSH	123	.230/.310/.375	3	4	94	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.842First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Ext$0.9M2031Ext$2M2032Ext$2M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Z-Con%90

K%88

Whiff%87

Chase%71

Speed70

BB%64

CompsManuel Margot (age 27) · Alex Call (age 28) · Phillip Ervin (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†100

AVG/OBP/SLG.236 / .316 / .391

PA24

HR1

K%21

BB%8

BABIP268

ISO182

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT60

xAVG

100.187

POWER45

Barrel%

599.6

Avg EV

1686.5

Bat Spd

3669.9

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

6628.1

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2022

Service 0.842 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.0	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2017	18	ROK	ACL D-backs	—	201	178	48	9	8	0	19	47	2	7	2	270	347	410	757	140	361	23	9	335	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK	Missoula Osprey	—	255	226	74	17	1	4	26	34	1	2	0	327	399	465	864	137	368	13	10	383	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A	Kane County Cougars	—	438	385	101	18	4	7	47	81	2	4	4	262	346	384	730	122	312	18	11	328	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	279	237	66	6	2	17	39	73	2	7	2	278	385	536	921	257	331	26	14	402	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A+	Hillsboro Hops	—	127	111	35	5	0	5	11	25	3	9	2	315	392	495	887	180	361	20	9	388	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	64	55	13	3	0	2	7	16	1	0	0	236	333	400	733	164	289	25	11	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	94	83	18	2	2	1	8	23	1	0	0	217	293	325	619	108	279	24	9	276	67	-4	+0	+1	+2	+2	0.1
2022	23	AAA	Reno Aces	—	394	330	86	14	3	7	54	76	3	8	4	261	370	385	754	124	311	19	14	339	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	29	24	4	1	0	0	4	6	1	0	0	167	310	208	519	42	222	21	14	259	58	-1	+0	+1	+2	+1	0.2
2023	24	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	463	374	115	24	8	5	76	81	9	3	3	307	436	455	890	147	377	17	16	398	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	26	21	4	1	0	1	4	7	0	1	0	190	320	381	701	190	214	27	15	306	90	-0	+0	+1	+2	+1	0.3
2024	25	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	463	389	106	31	1	13	60	84	8	4	2	272	381	458	838	185	312	18	13	370	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	32	29	2	1	0	0	2	8	1	0	0	69	156	103	260	34	95	25	6	135	-19	-5	+0	-1	+1	+1	-0.3
2025	26	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	384	328	92	17	1	8	43	55	10	4	1	280	381	412	792	131	313	14	11	357	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	49	43	5	1	0	0	5	15	1	0	0	116	224	140	364	23	179	31	10	186	13	-5	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.3
2026	27	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	273	230	67	17	1	9	33	38	8	6	0	291	399	491	890	200	315	14	12	393	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	230	200	33	6	2	2	23	59	4	1	0	165	264	245	509	80	218	26	10	239	48	-14	+0	+2	+8	+5	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2017	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	201	185	34	6	5	0	12	68	2	7	2	184	241	270	511	86	280	34	6	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	Missoula Osprey	—	255	236	55	11	1	3	16	49	1	2	0	233	285	326	611	93	275	19	6	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A MLE	Kane County Cougars	—	438	403	84	15	3	6	29	111	2	4	4	208	265	305	570	97	267	25	7	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	279	249	53	5	2	10	27	94	2	7	2	213	295	369	664	157	293	34	10	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	—	127	114	27	3	0	4	8	35	3	9	2	237	304	368	672	132	291	28	6	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	94	83	18	2	2	1	8	23	1	0	0	217	293	325	619	108	279	24	9	267	67	-4	+0	+1	+2	+2	0.1
2022	23	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	394	346	79	12	3	5	38	91	3	8	4	228	310	324	634	95	282	23	10	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	29	24	4	1	0	0	4	6	1	0	0	167	310	208	519	42	222	21	14	254	58	-1	+0	+1	+2	+1	0.2
2023	24	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	463	400	107	19	7	4	50	95	9	3	3	268	362	380	742	112	333	21	11	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	26	21	4	1	0	1	4	7	0	1	0	190	320	381	701	190	214	27	15	302	90	-0	+0	+1	+2	+1	0.3
2024	25	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	463	408	97	27	1	10	41	99	8	4	2	238	319	382	702	145	278	21	9	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	32	29	2	1	0	0	2	8	1	0	0	69	156	103	260	34	95	25	6	139	-19	-5	+0	-1	+1	+1	-0.3
2025	26	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	384	341	79	12	1	7	30	67	10	4	1	232	312	334	647	103	265	17	8	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	49	43	5	1	0	0	5	15	1	0	0	116	224	140	364	23	179	31	10	187	13	-5	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.3
2026	27	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	273	241	58	14	1	6	22	46	8	6	0	241	325	382	706	141	270	17	8	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	201	185	34	6	5	0	12	68	2	7	2	184	241	270	511	86	286	34	6	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	—	201	178	48	9	8	0	19	47	2	7	2	270	347	410	757	140	361	23	9	335	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	Missoula Osprey	—	255	236	55	11	1	3	16	49	1	2	0	233	285	326	611	93	280	19	6	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	Missoula Osprey	—	255	226	74	17	1	4	26	34	1	2	0	327	399	465	864	137	368	13	10	383	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A MLE	Kane County Cougars	—	438	403	84	15	3	6	29	111	2	4	4	208	265	305	570	97	269	25	7	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A RAW	Kane County Cougars	—	438	385	101	18	4	7	47	81	2	4	4	262	346	384	730	122	312	18	11	328	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	470	420	93	9	2	17	40	149	6	16	4	221	298	374	672	152	295	32	9	293	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA RAW	3 teams	—	470	403	114	14	2	24	57	114	6	16	4	283	380	506	886	223	335	24	12	388	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	488	429	97	14	4	7	46	114	4	8	4	226	307	326	633	100	284	23	9	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	488	413	104	16	5	8	62	99	4	8	4	252	355	373	728	121	305	20	13	327	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	492	424	111	20	7	4	54	101	10	3	3	262	359	370	729	108	331	21	11	326	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	492	398	119	25	8	5	80	87	10	3	3	299	428	440	868	141	368	18	16	390	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	489	429	101	28	1	11	45	106	8	5	2	235	320	382	702	147	282	22	9	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	489	410	110	32	1	14	64	91	8	5	2	268	378	454	831	185	308	19	13	367	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	416	370	82	14	1	7	32	75	11	4	1	222	303	322	624	100	258	18	8	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	416	357	94	18	1	8	45	63	11	4	1	263	363	387	750	123	298	15	11	340	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	322	284	63	15	1	6	27	61	9	6	0	222	309	345	654	123	261	19	8	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	322	273	72	18	1	9	38	53	9	6	0	264	372	436	808	172	297	16	12	361	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	201	185	34	6	5	0	12	68	2	7	2	184	241	270	511	86	280	34	6	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	Missoula Osprey	—	255	236	55	11	1	3	16	49	1	2	0	233	285	326	611	93	275	19	6	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A MLE	Kane County Cougars	—	438	404	84	15	3	6	29	111	2	4	4	208	265	304	569	97	267	25	7	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	470	421	93	9	2	17	40	149	6	16	4	221	298	373	671	152	292	32	9	293	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	488	435	97	14	4	7	46	114	4	8	4	223	307	322	629	99	281	23	9	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	492	425	111	20	7	4	54	101	10	3	3	261	359	369	728	108	326	21	11	326	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	489	433	101	28	1	11	45	106	8	5	2	233	320	379	698	145	275	22	9	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	416	370	82	14	1	7	32	75	11	4	1	222	303	322	624	100	252	18	8	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	322	283	63	15	1	6	27	61	9	6	0	223	309	346	656	124	256	19	8	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	489	433	101	28	1	11	45	106	8	5	2	233	320	379	698	145	275	22	9	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	416	370	82	14	1	7	32	75	11	4	1	222	303	322	624	100	252	18	8	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	322	283	63	15	1	6	27	61	9	6	0	223	309	346	656	124	256	19	8	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	28	MLB MLE	WSH	10%	372	330	77	15	1	11	31	73	8	16	3	236	316	391	707	155	267	20	8	316	100	+0	+2	-0	+1	+8	0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	28	MLB CTX	WSH	10%	24	22	5	1	0	1	2	5	0	1	0	236	316	391	707	155	268	21	8	316	100	+0	+0	-0	+0	+1	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	WSH	33%	266	237	56	11	1	8	22	53	5	10	2	233	313	384	697	151	266	20	8	312	98	-1	+1	-2	+1	+6	0.6
2029	30	MLB MLE	WSH	46%	268	239	56	11	1	8	22	54	5	9	2	230	309	375	685	146	264	20	8	307	94	-2	+1	-2	+1	+6	0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	WSH	33%	87	78	19	4	0	3	7	17	2	3	1	233	313	384	697	150	266	20	8	312	98	-0	+0	-1	+0	+2	0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	WSH	46%	123	110	24	5	0	3	10	25	2	4	1	230	310	375	685	145	264	20	8	307	94	-1	+0	-1	+0	+3	0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	440	388	76	15	2	8	40	101	8	8	2	196	284	307	591	111	240	23	9	272	83	-15	+1	+0	+9	+10	0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	112	22	3	12	59	149	12	12	3	195	284	307	591	112	239	23	9	272	83	-23	+1	+1	+13	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	4343	3867	882	164	28	84	365	987	68	84	26	228	306	350	656	122	281	23	8	291	83	-17	+4	-2	+11	+22	1.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	133	25	4	13	55	148	10	13	4	230	308	354	662	124	283	23	8	291	83	-11	+2	-1	+7	+14	1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARochester Red Wings · 273 PAwOBA .383 → .314 (−69)K% 13.9% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.92%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	16.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.72%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.992	8.02%
HBP% /PA	2.93%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	2.73%
Singles /BIP	20.83%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.973	×0.992	18.70%
Doubles /BIP	8.85%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.973	×0.992	7.09%
Triples /BIP	0.52%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.973	×0.992	0.49%
Home runs /BIP	4.69%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.992	3.25%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.

Result: wOBA .383 → .314; ISO .200 → .154; BABIP .315 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAABuffalo Bisons · 384 PAwOBA .351 → .289 (−62)K% 14.3% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.32%	÷0.988	×1.200	—	—	17.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.20%	÷0.984	×0.690	—	×1.003	7.87%
HBP% /PA	2.60%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	2.46%
Singles /BIP	24.18%	÷1.007	×0.930	×0.950	×1.003	21.27%
Doubles /BIP	6.23%	÷1.098	×0.830	×0.950	×1.003	4.49%
Triples /BIP	0.37%	÷0.986	×0.970	×0.950	×1.003	0.34%
Home runs /BIP	2.93%	÷0.847	×0.700	—	×1.003	2.43%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 101, 2B 120, 3B 97, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .351 → .289; ISO .131 → .105; BABIP .313 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 463 PAwOBA .365 → .307 (−58)K% 18.1% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.14%	÷1.022	×1.200	—	—	21.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.74%	÷1.021	×0.690	—	×1.018	8.76%
HBP% /PA	1.73%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	1.65%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷0.985	×0.930	×0.966	×1.018	18.56%
Doubles /BIP	10.16%	÷0.960	×0.830	×0.966	×1.018	8.64%
Triples /BIP	0.33%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.966	×1.018	0.27%
Home runs /BIP	4.26%	÷0.989	×0.700	—	×1.018	3.07%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 97, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 104, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.

Result: wOBA .365 → .307; ISO .185 → .149; BABIP .312 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 463 PAwOBA .391 → .330 (−61)K% 17.5% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.49%	÷1.017	×1.200	—	—	20.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.98%	÷1.055	×0.690	—	×1.033	10.80%
HBP% /PA	1.94%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	1.89%
Singles /BIP	26.62%	÷0.993	×0.930	×0.968	×1.033	24.92%
Doubles /BIP	8.19%	÷1.124	×0.830	×0.968	×1.033	6.05%
Triples /BIP	2.73%	÷1.133	×0.970	×0.968	×1.033	2.34%
Home runs /BIP	1.71%	÷0.996	×0.700	—	×1.033	1.24%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 99, 2B 125, 3B 127, K 103, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.

Result: wOBA .391 → .330; ISO .147 → .119; BABIP .377 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAReno Aces · 394 PAwOBA .336 → .288 (−48)K% 19.3% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.29%	÷1.004	×1.200	—	—	23.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.71%	÷1.020	×0.690	—	×1.048	9.72%
HBP% /PA	0.76%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.75%
Singles /BIP	24.41%	÷1.025	×0.930	×0.975	×1.048	22.64%
Doubles /BIP	5.51%	÷0.996	×0.830	×0.975	×1.048	4.70%
Triples /BIP	1.18%	÷1.100	×0.970	×0.975	×1.048	1.06%
Home runs /BIP	2.76%	÷0.965	×0.700	—	×1.048	2.10%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 105, 2B 99, 3B 120, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.

Result: wOBA .336 → .288; ISO .124 → .104; BABIP .311 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 279 PAwOBA .391 → .293 (−98)K% 26.2% → 33.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.16%	÷0.946	×1.220	—	—	33.75%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.62%	÷0.992	×0.690	—	×1.027	9.73%
HBP% /PA	0.72%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	0.63%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.025	×0.940	×0.986	×1.027	23.21%
Doubles /BIP	3.66%	÷1.034	×0.870	×0.986	×1.027	3.12%
Triples /BIP	1.22%	÷0.945	×0.920	×0.986	×1.027	1.20%
Home runs /BIP	10.37%	÷1.271	×0.780	—	×1.027	6.53%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 154, 1B 105, 2B 107, 3B 89, K 89, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .391 → .293; ISO .257 → .165; BABIP .331 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Hillsboro Hops · 127 PAwOBA .384 → .294 (−90)K% 19.7% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.69%	÷0.970	×1.350	—	—	27.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.66%	÷1.011	×0.710	—	×0.998	6.07%
HBP% /PA	2.36%	—	×0.810	—	×0.998	1.91%
Singles /BIP	29.07%	÷1.033	×0.910	×0.970	×0.998	24.78%
Doubles /BIP	5.81%	÷1.304	×0.830	×0.970	×0.998	3.58%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.108	×0.820	×0.970	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.81%	÷0.972	×0.830	—	×0.998	4.96%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 107, 2B 161, 3B 122, K 94, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.

Result: wOBA .384 → .294; ISO .180 → .136; BABIP .361 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AKane County Cougars · 438 PAwOBA .321 → .256 (−65)K% 18.5% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.49%	÷0.990	×1.360	—	—	25.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.27%	÷1.083	×0.690	—	×1.015	6.65%
HBP% /PA	0.46%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.36%
Singles /BIP	23.68%	÷1.038	×0.920	×0.950	×1.015	20.24%
Doubles /BIP	5.92%	÷0.920	×0.830	×0.950	×1.015	5.15%
Triples /BIP	1.32%	÷1.056	×0.910	×0.950	×1.015	1.09%
Home runs /BIP	2.30%	÷0.875	×0.800	—	×1.015	2.14%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 108, 2B 84, 3B 111, K 98, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .321 → .256; ISO .122 → .106; BABIP .312 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ehire Adrianzalast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,519 PA	2.3	1,519	20	19	240	310	353	+10	+13	4.0	4.4
/162	664	9	8	+4.2	+5.5	1.8	pk7: 5
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Rene Gonzales'84-'97 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	19	23	236*	311*	337*	+4	+11	1.9	2.8
/162	664	7	9	+1.6	+4.2	0.7	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Jose Macias'99-'05 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,789 PA	2.7	1,789	26	43	247*	289*	362*	+2	+12	1.0	1.0
/162	664	10	16	+0.7	+4.3	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.5	328	8	8	227	303	365	-3	+1	0.2	0.2
/162	664	16	17	-6.7	+2.4	0.3	pk7: 0
#6Doug Strange'89-'98 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,067 PA	3.1	2,067	31	14	225*	286*	340*	+5	-0	-1.5	0.0
/162	664	10	4	+1.6	-0.1	-0.5	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Buddy Kennedy (OGILVIE)	28	60	45	45	55	234/314/388	154	267	7	10	20%	8%	100	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Manuel Margot 2022 · MLB	27	50→55	46→50	51→60	51	249/308/378	129	281	13	21	17%	8%	94	+0.9	255/308/368	113	299	9	14	17%	7%	91	+0.7	255/306/357	102	300	7	12	17%	6%	89	+0.3
✕Alex Call 2023 · MLB	28	46→47	49→50	49→50	54	234/323/386	152	268	17	14	19%	10%	103	+1.5	225/321/357	132	265	13	15	19%	11%	95	+1.0	235/338/356	121	285	11	12	20%	12%	102	+0.8
✕Phillip Ervin 2020 · MLB	28	50→51	49→50	51→55	45	246/310/400	154	307	15	17	24%	7%	100	+1.3	210/288/337	127	280	13	15	28%	9%	78	-0.3	155/232/248	93	213	12	21	32%	9%	34	-1.5
✕Corey Julks 2024 · MLB	28	46→50	49→50	54→55	46	234/295/386	152	289	17	21	25%	7%	92	+0.7	229/289/353	124	290	13	18	25%	7%	82	-0.0	222/281/337	115	280	13	16	25%	7%	73	-0.5
✕Raul Gonzalez 2003 · MLB	29	49→58	48→45	48→50	47	247/299/382	135	286	16	15	20%	7%	92	+0.7	241/307/367	126	274	12	9	16%	9%	91	+0.7	268/327/373	105	306	10	12	15%	7%	97	+0.5
✕Scott Heineman 2021 · MLB	28	48→56	47→45	48→50	44	241/300/379	138	304	15	15	26%	6%	92	+0.7	210/271/336	126	299	13	17	32%	7%	72	-0.7	170/233/276	105	257	10	21	36%	6%	41	-0.5
✕Ben Francisco 2010 · MLB	28	51→57	51→55	47→55	50	256/322/425	169	292	18	14	19%	8%	111	+2.1	247/317/398	151	283	15	12	18%	8%	103	+1.5	241/310/376	135	279	12	10	18%	8%	95	+0.4
✕Matt Szczur 2017 · MLB	28	49→58	44→45	51→55	44	240/287/353	113	286	12	20	21%	6%	80	-0.1	233/312/364	131	285	12	8	21%	10%	93	+0.8	223/313/355	132	274	11	3	21%	11%	92	+0.2
✕Edward Olivares 2024 · MLB	28	52→53	52→55	49→55	46	264/319/437	173	298	19	16	19%	6%	112	+2.2	243/306/386	143	278	17	15	19%	7%	96	+1.0	222/291/325	103	252	15	17	18%	7%	76	-0.2
✕Ronnier Mustelier 2013 · AAA	28	55→59	47→45	48→50	45	275/319/417	143	311	14	12	17%	5%	107	+1.9	262/304/379	117	297	12	12	16%	5%	93	+0.8	272/316/368	96	296	8	7	11%	5%	92	+0.5
✕Desmond Jennings 2015 · MLB	28	49→59	47→50	53→60	53	244/318/391	147	288	13	19	20%	9%	101	+1.4	223/292/357	134	269	14	13	22%	8%	84	+0.1	195/258/312	118	235	14	10	23%	7%	61	-0.5
✕Nick Solak 2023 · MLB	28	50→60	46→50	47→50	48	248/318/377	129	299	13	11	21%	7%	98	+1.2	246/318/360	114	299	12	10	21%	8%	95	+0.9	274/331/389	115	315	12	10	16%	6%	103	+1.1
✕Joshua Palacios 2024 · MLB	29	50→53	49→50	53→55	46	253/307/400	146	292	17	18	20%	6%	99	+1.3	229/295/358	129	283	13	13	23%	7%	85	+0.2	210/285/314	105	268	9	11	24%	8%	71	-0.3
●Harrison Bader 2023 · MLB	29	50→57	50→55	54→55	44	252/303/405	153	295	17	21	21%	6%	99	+1.2	242/293/375	133	289	15	23	21%	6%	88	+0.5	246/306/404	158	305	19	16	25%	6%	101	+0.8
✕Óscar Mercado 2023 · MLB	28	44→54	47→50	53→60	48	220/285/358	139	253	14	18	20%	7%	82	-0.0	218/281/357	139	256	15	28	21%	7%	80	-0.2	206/274/332	126	238	14	36	20%	7%	70	-0.6
●Juan Encarnacion 2004 · MLB	28	52→58	52→55	51→50	48	262/312/435	173	283	19	17	15%	6%	109	+2.0	262/315/428	166	289	18	9	16%	6%	108	+1.9	263/315/425	162	291	18	6	16%	6%	109	+1.8
✕Darnell McDonald 2007 · MLB	28	50→55	46→55	50→55	42	249/291/375	126	309	13	19	24%	5%	87	+0.4	249/292/377	128	313	11	22	23%	5%	87	+0.4	255/305/424	169	309	16	12	23%	6%	103	+0.9
✕Kevin Pillar 2018 · MLB	29	53→61	46→55	49→55	46	260/302/393	133	288	12	15	15%	5%	95	+1.0	256/292/422	166	282	17	14	16%	4%	99	+1.2	257/289/429	172	282	18	14	16%	3%	100	+1.1
✕Collin Cowgill 2014 · MLB	28	49→59	45→50	53→55	45	244/297/367	124	300	13	16	23%	7%	88	+0.4	230/290/338	108	296	11	10	25%	7%	78	-0.3	218/279/301	83	286	7	9	25%	6%	65	-0.6
✕Dane Myers 2024 · MLB	28	50→57	49→50	53→55	41	251/304/394	143	323	17	18	27%	6%	97	+1.1	247/311/371	124	325	14	21	26%	8%	94	+0.9	243/317/355	112	321	13	23	26%	9%	92	+0.4

Buddy Kennedy

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps