Ben Malgeri
OF Toledo Mud Hens| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AADET | 470 | .252/.325/.409 | 12 | 20 | 70 | — | .225/.276/.353 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA/A+DET | 307 | .289/.366/.496 | 7 | 5 | 97 | — | .251/.310/.419 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAADET | 297 | .296/.403/.496 | 9 | 8 | 110 | — | .261/.346/.410 |
| 2026 | 26 | MLBDET | 140 | .250/.353/.417 | 5 | 5 | 123 | 0.5 | |
| 2027PROJ45% MLB | 27 | MLBDET | 70 | .229/.311/.371 | 2 | 3 | 97 | 0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ56% MLB | 28 | MLBDET | 160 | .228/.310/.368 | 4 | 7 | 95 | 0.2 | |
| 2029PROJ59% MLB | 29 | MLBDET | 169 | .226/.307/.363 | 4 | 6 | 93 | 0.1 |
Tools · Recent Form · ContractCON 55 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 178 | 158 | 42 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 42 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 266 | 348 | 380 | 728 | 114 | 351 | 24 | 8 | 331 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 462 | 373 | 88 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 57 | 116 | 24 | 12 | 8 | 236 | 372 | 332 | 705 | 97 | 324 | 25 | 12 | 326 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 389 | 344 | 80 | 19 | 2 | 13 | 40 | 118 | 4 | 15 | 6 | 233 | 320 | 413 | 732 | 180 | 313 | 30 | 10 | 327 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 54 | 46 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 283 | 377 | 630 | 1.008 | 348 | 312 | 22 | 9 | 423 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 470 | 421 | 106 | 22 | 4 | 12 | 43 | 148 | 3 | 20 | 4 | 252 | 325 | 409 | 734 | 157 | 356 | 31 | 9 | 326 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 285 | 251 | 70 | 20 | 7 | 5 | 23 | 52 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 279 | 356 | 474 | 830 | 195 | 328 | 18 | 8 | 361 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 22 | 19 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 421 | 500 | 789 | 1.289 | 368 | 462 | 18 | 14 | 548 | 187 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | — | 140 | 120 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 36 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 250 | 353 | 417 | 769 | 167 | 312 | 26 | 12 | 345 | 123 | +4 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +3 | 0.5 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 297 | 250 | 74 | 17 | 3 | 9 | 38 | 74 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 296 | 403 | 496 | 899 | 200 | 385 | 25 | 13 | 397 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 140 | 120 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 36 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 250 | 353 | 417 | 769 | 167 | 312 | 26 | 12 | 345 | 119 | +3 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +3 | 0.5 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 178 | 163 | 35 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 58 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 215 | 281 | 307 | 588 | 92 | 315 | 33 | 6 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 462 | 390 | 78 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 40 | 154 | 24 | 12 | 8 | 200 | 313 | 285 | 597 | 85 | 294 | 33 | 9 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 389 | 357 | 68 | 16 | 2 | 9 | 27 | 152 | 4 | 15 | 6 | 190 | 255 | 322 | 577 | 132 | 298 | 39 | 7 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 54 | 47 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 255 | 340 | 574 | 914 | 319 | 265 | 28 | 7 | 348 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 470 | 436 | 98 | 18 | 4 | 10 | 28 | 179 | 3 | 20 | 4 | 225 | 276 | 353 | 629 | 128 | 346 | 38 | 6 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 285 | 259 | 63 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 61 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 243 | 302 | 398 | 700 | 154 | 291 | 21 | 5 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 22 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 350 | 409 | 700 | 1.109 | 350 | 396 | 23 | 9 | 445 | 187 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 140 | 120 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 36 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 250 | 353 | 417 | 769 | 167 | 312 | 26 | 12 | 351 | 123 | +4 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +3 | 0.5 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 297 | 261 | 68 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 89 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 261 | 346 | 410 | 756 | 149 | 361 | 30 | 9 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 178 | 163 | 35 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 58 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 215 | 281 | 307 | 588 | 92 | 320 | 33 | 6 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A RAW | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 178 | 158 | 42 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 42 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 266 | 348 | 380 | 728 | 114 | 351 | 24 | 8 | 331 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 462 | 390 | 78 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 40 | 154 | 24 | 12 | 8 | 200 | 313 | 285 | 597 | 85 | 311 | 33 | 9 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ RAW | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 462 | 373 | 88 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 57 | 116 | 24 | 12 | 8 | 236 | 372 | 332 | 705 | 97 | 324 | 25 | 12 | 326 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 443 | 404 | 79 | 20 | 2 | 12 | 31 | 168 | 6 | 15 | 6 | 196 | 263 | 344 | 607 | 149 | 296 | 38 | 7 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 443 | 390 | 93 | 24 | 3 | 16 | 45 | 130 | 6 | 15 | 6 | 238 | 327 | 438 | 765 | 200 | 313 | 29 | 10 | 339 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 470 | 436 | 98 | 18 | 4 | 10 | 28 | 179 | 3 | 20 | 4 | 225 | 276 | 353 | 629 | 128 | 352 | 38 | 6 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA RAW | Erie SeaWolves | — | 470 | 421 | 106 | 22 | 4 | 12 | 43 | 148 | 3 | 20 | 4 | 252 | 325 | 409 | 734 | 157 | 356 | 31 | 9 | 326 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 307 | 279 | 71 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 67 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 254 | 314 | 423 | 736 | 168 | 310 | 22 | 6 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 307 | 270 | 78 | 21 | 7 | 7 | 26 | 56 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 289 | 366 | 496 | 863 | 207 | 336 | 18 | 8 | 375 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 437 | 381 | 99 | 20 | 3 | 12 | 44 | 125 | 9 | 13 | 2 | 260 | 350 | 423 | 773 | 163 | 352 | 29 | 10 | 337 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 437 | 370 | 104 | 22 | 3 | 14 | 55 | 110 | 9 | 13 | 2 | 281 | 387 | 470 | 857 | 189 | 361 | 25 | 13 | 380 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 178 | 161 | 35 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 58 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 217 | 281 | 311 | 591 | 93 | 315 | 33 | 6 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 462 | 395 | 78 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 40 | 154 | 24 | 12 | 8 | 197 | 313 | 281 | 594 | 84 | 294 | 33 | 9 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 443 | 403 | 79 | 20 | 2 | 12 | 31 | 168 | 6 | 15 | 6 | 196 | 263 | 345 | 608 | 149 | 294 | 38 | 7 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 470 | 436 | 98 | 18 | 4 | 10 | 28 | 179 | 3 | 20 | 4 | 225 | 276 | 353 | 629 | 128 | 346 | 38 | 6 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 307 | 280 | 71 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 67 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 254 | 314 | 421 | 735 | 168 | 299 | 22 | 6 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 437 | 381 | 99 | 20 | 3 | 12 | 44 | 125 | 9 | 13 | 2 | 260 | 350 | 423 | 773 | 163 | 345 | 29 | 10 | 337 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 470 | 436 | 98 | 18 | 4 | 10 | 28 | 179 | 3 | 20 | 4 | 225 | 276 | 353 | 629 | 128 | 346 | 38 | 6 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 307 | 280 | 71 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 67 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 254 | 314 | 421 | 735 | 168 | 299 | 22 | 6 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 437 | 381 | 99 | 20 | 3 | 12 | 44 | 125 | 9 | 13 | 2 | 260 | 350 | 423 | 773 | 163 | 345 | 29 | 10 | 337 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | DET | 45% | 380 | 337 | 78 | 15 | 3 | 9 | 33 | 105 | 7 | 18 | 4 | 234 | 315 | 380 | 695 | 146 | 307 | 28 | 9 | 311 | 97 | -1 | +2 | +0 | -2 | +8 | 0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | DET | 45% | 70 | 63 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 229 | 311 | 371 | 682 | 141 | 302 | 27 | 9 | 306 | 97 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +2 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | DET | 56% | 286 | 254 | 58 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 79 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 232 | 313 | 377 | 690 | 144 | 305 | 28 | 9 | 309 | 95 | -2 | +2 | -1 | -2 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB MLE | DET | 59% | 284 | 252 | 58 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 78 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 231 | 311 | 372 | 683 | 141 | 303 | 27 | 9 | 306 | 93 | -2 | +1 | -1 | -2 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB MLE | DET | 61% | 281 | 251 | 58 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 78 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 228 | 308 | 366 | 673 | 138 | 301 | 28 | 9 | 303 | 91 | -3 | +1 | -2 | -2 | +6 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | DET | 56% | 160 | 142 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 44 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 228 | 310 | 368 | 677 | 139 | 300 | 28 | 9 | 304 | 95 | -1 | +1 | -0 | -1 | +3 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB CTX | DET | 59% | 169 | 149 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 47 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 226 | 307 | 363 | 670 | 137 | 298 | 28 | 9 | 301 | 93 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB CTX | DET | 61% | 173 | 153 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 48 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 224 | 304 | 357 | 661 | 133 | 296 | 28 | 9 | 298 | 91 | -2 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +4 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 642 | 564 | 131 | 25 | 3 | 17 | 61 | 175 | 11 | 23 | 3 | 232 | 319 | 378 | 697 | 145 | 303 | 27 | 10 | 311 | 84 | -1 | +3 | -3 | -6 | +14 | 0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 571 | 132 | 25 | 3 | 17 | 62 | 177 | 11 | 23 | 3 | 231 | 318 | 375 | 693 | 144 | 302 | 27 | 10 | 311 | 84 | -1 | +3 | -3 | -6 | +14 | 0.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3303 | 2947 | 666 | 134 | 27 | 71 | 258 | 1029 | 71 | 110 | 31 | 226 | 304 | 362 | 666 | 136 | 318 | 31 | 8 | 292 | 84 | -4 | +6 | -4 | -9 | +25 | 1.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 580 | 130 | 26 | 5 | 14 | 51 | 202 | 14 | 22 | 6 | 224 | 302 | 359 | 661 | 134 | 315 | 31 | 8 | 292 | 84 | -2 | +3 | -2 | -5 | +14 | 0.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 297 PAwOBA .389 → .331 (−58)K% 24.9% → 29.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.92% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 8.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.36% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 2.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.033 | ×1.018 | 25.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.66% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.033 | ×1.018 | 8.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.033 | ×1.018 | 1.74% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 3.64% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.
Result: wOBA .389 → .331; ISO .200 → .160; BABIP .385 → .361. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAErie SeaWolves · 285 PAwOBA .356 → .301 (−55)K% 18.2% → 21.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.25% | ÷1.035 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.72% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 5.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.46% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 2.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.10% | ÷0.981 | ×0.970 | ×0.977 | ×0.998 | 18.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.05% | ÷1.075 | ×0.860 | ×0.977 | ×0.998 | 7.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.52% | ÷1.115 | ×0.950 | ×0.977 | ×0.998 | 2.92% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.51% | ÷1.056 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 1.85% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 96, 2B 115, 3B 123, K 107, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .356 → .301; ISO .195 → .155; BABIP .328 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 22 PAwOBA .533 → .445 (−88)K% 18.2% → 24.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.18% | ÷0.960 | ×1.270 | — | — | 24.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.64% | ÷1.106 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 8.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.027 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 29.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.948 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.978 | 5.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 13.33% | ÷0.850 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 12.27% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 105, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 92, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .533 → .445; ISO .368 → .331; BABIP .462 → .396. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAErie SeaWolves · 470 PAwOBA .320 → .272 (−48)K% 31.5% → 38.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.49% | ÷1.009 | ×1.220 | — | — | 38.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.15% | ÷1.086 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 5.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.64% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.91% | ÷0.992 | ×0.970 | ×1.025 | ×1.012 | 25.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.06% | ÷1.036 | ×0.860 | ×1.025 | ×1.012 | 6.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.47% | ÷0.945 | ×0.950 | ×1.025 | ×1.012 | 1.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.40% | ÷0.941 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 3.69% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 89, K 102, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .320 → .272; ISO .157 → .130; BABIP .356 → .346. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAErie SeaWolves · 389 PAwOBA .319 → .253 (−66)K% 30.3% → 39.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.33% | ÷0.944 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.28% | ÷1.063 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 6.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.03% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.35% | ÷1.002 | ×0.970 | ×0.988 | ×1.027 | 20.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.41% | ÷0.924 | ×0.860 | ×0.988 | ×1.027 | 7.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.88% | ÷1.145 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | ×1.027 | 0.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.75% | ÷1.055 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 4.37% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 85, 3B 129, K 89, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .319 → .253; ISO .180 → .135; BABIP .313 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 54 PAwOBA .419 → .348 (−71)K% 22.2% → 28.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.22% | ÷1.007 | ×1.270 | — | — | 28.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.26% | ÷0.993 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 6.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.70% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 2.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.76% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 10.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.71% | ÷0.985 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 12.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.94% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 2.17% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.82% | ÷0.882 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 7.99% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 98, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .419 → .348; ISO .348 → .296; BABIP .312 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 462 PAwOBA .323 → .266 (−57)K% 25.1% → 33.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.11% | ÷0.956 | ×1.270 | — | — | 33.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.34% | ÷1.024 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 8.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.19% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 4.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.90% | ÷1.031 | ×0.920 | ×1.007 | ×1.012 | 22.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.23% | ÷0.876 | ×0.810 | ×1.007 | ×1.012 | 5.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.56% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.007 | ×1.012 | 1.17% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.56% | ÷0.847 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.49% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 106, 2B 75, 3B 130, K 91, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.
Result: wOBA .323 → .266; ISO .097 → .085; BABIP .324 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 178 PAwOBA .323 → .255 (−67)K% 23.6% → 32.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.60% | ÷0.988 | ×1.360 | — | — | 32.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.43% | ÷1.017 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 5.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.81% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 2.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.72% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×0.981 | ×1.015 | 24.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.17% | ÷0.992 | ×0.830 | ×0.981 | ×1.015 | 4.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.59% | ÷1.016 | ×0.910 | ×0.981 | ×1.015 | 2.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.72% | ÷0.937 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.49% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 100, 2B 98, 3B 103, K 98, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .323 → .255; ISO .114 → .090; BABIP .351 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).