Jared Thomas

OF Hartford Yard Goats
Age 24 L/L 6'1" / 185 lbs AA HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034
MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202421ACOL36.333/.389/.54521102—.294/.333/.500
202522AA/A+/INTL2 orgs600.300/.394/.460164191—.234/.315/.352
202623AA/ROK/INTL2 orgs203.285/.363/.469517102—.237/.303/.348
2027PROJMLE24MLBCOL2.208/.284/.3310066-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB25MLBCOL49.213/.289/.3441170-0.1
Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034
2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$3M2032Ext$5M2033Ext$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA
Speed79
wRC+54
wOBA52
ISO42
Chase%27
Z-Con%16
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 1.6, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 91%
CompsKameron Misner (age 24) · Oliver Dunn (age 24) · Bradlee Beesley (age 24)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†66
AVG/OBP/SLG.208 / .284 / .331
PA2
HR0
K%50
BB%9
BABIP326
ISO108
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -3.7 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-4BATRUN: +0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -0.6 runs (Positional adjustment)-1POSREP: +2.0 runs (Replacement-level credit)+2REPTotal WAR: -0.10-0.1WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
-0.1-0.12728
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2028
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2033
First FA Year   2034
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-0.4M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202421 AFresno Grizzlies — 3633 11102 370 10 333389545934 212375 198 411 102 — — — — — —
202522 AAHartford Yard Goats — 191163 401013 25661 115 245349374723 129389 3513 327 70 — — — — — —
202522 A+Spokane Indians — 342291 9613111 45795 222 330428495923 165421 2313 411 93 — — — — — —
202522 INTLSalt River Rafters — 6763 19612 3281 80 302343524867 222515 424 378 142 — — — — — —
202623 AAHartford Yard Goats — 124111 30304 8464 112 270341405747 135426 376 335 73 — — — — — —
202623 ROKACL Rockies — 1713 5210 340 10 3855006921.192 308500 2418 476 126 — — — — — —
202623 INTLSalt River Rafters — 6255 16341 4233 51 291371545916 255484 376 397 155 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202421 A MLEFresno Grizzlies — 3634 10102 290 10 294333500833 206334 256 319 102 — — — — — —
202522 AA MLEHartford Yard Goats — 191169 36912 19791 115 213296314610 101373 4110 271 70 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLESpokane Indians — 342305 751019 311065 222 246326374699 128341 319 306 93 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLEHartford Yard Goats — 124113 26203 6564 112 230293327620 97430 455 276 73 — — — — — —
202623 ROK MLEACL Rockies — 1714 4110 260 10 286375500875 214368 3512 354 126 — — — — — —
202421 A MLEFresno Grizzlies — 3634 10102 290 10 294333500833 206348 256 319 102 — — — — — —
202421 A RAWFresno Grizzlies — 3633 11102 370 10 333389545934 212375 198 411 102 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLE3 teams — 600533 12421212 572087 417 233315347662 114356 3510 293 85 — — — — — —
202522 A+ RAW3 teams — 600517 15529316 731737 417 300394460854 161421 2912 380 85 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLE3 teams — 203183 44614 11897 173 240308350658 109440 445 285 79 — — — — — —
202623 AA RAW3 teams — 203179 51855 15737 173 285363469832 184451 367 366 79 — — — — — —
202421 A MLEFresno Grizzlies — 3634 10102 290 10 294333500833 206334 256 319 102 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLE3 teams — 600531 12421212 572087 417 234315348663 115352 3510 293 85 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLE3 teams — 203183 44614 11897 173 240308350658 109423 445 285 79 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202421 A MLEFresno Grizzlies — 3634 10102 290 10 294333500833 206334 256 319 102 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLE3 teams — 600531 12421212 572087 417 234315348663 115352 3510 293 85 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLE3 teams — 203183 44614 11897 173 240308350658 109423 445 285 79 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202724 MLB MLECOL 2% 200179 36614 16763 71 198275308583 110311 388 266 66 -8 +1 +0 -1 +4 -0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202724 MLB CTXCOL 2% 22 0000 010 00 208284331615 123326 500 278 66 -0 +0 +0 -0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202825 MLB MLECOL 31% 158142 30514 13592 51 202279319598 117310 378 272 70 -6 +1 +0 -1 +3 -0.3
202825 MLB CTXCOL 31% 4944 9201 4181 10 213289344633 132325 378 285 70 -2 +0 +0 -0 +1 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 4944 9201 4181 10 205286318604 114320 378 285 81 -2 +0 +0 -0 +1 -0.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650584 12027013 5323913 130 205286318605 113322 378 285 81 -23 +3 +0 -4 +14 -1.0
Career— MLE — 1089975 22436424 9140017 6712 230307349655 119360 378 287 81 -9 +1 +0 -2 +5 -0.5
/ 162G— MLE — 650582 13321214 5423910 407 229304344648 115360 378 287 81 -24 +2 +0 -4 +14 -1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAHartford Yard Goats · 124 PAwOBA .326 → .276 (−50)K% 37.1% → 45.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA37.10%÷1.000×1.220——45.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.45%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0274.64%
HBP% /PA3.23%—×0.850—×1.0272.82%
Singles /BIP35.38%÷1.000×0.970×1.038×1.02736.60%
Doubles /BIP4.62%÷1.000×0.860×1.038×1.0274.23%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.950×1.038×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP6.15%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0274.93%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.

Result: wOBA .326 → .276; ISO .135 → .100; BABIP .426 → .430. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Rockies · 17 PAwOBA .493 → .354 (−139)K% 23.5% → 33.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.53%÷1.000×1.440——33.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.65%÷1.000×0.620—×0.96510.56%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×0.9650.00%
Singles /BIP22.22%÷1.000×0.820—×0.96517.58%
Doubles /BIP22.22%÷1.000×0.720—×0.96515.44%
Triples /BIP11.11%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9657.72%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9650.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .493 → .354; ISO .308 → .224; BABIP .500 → .368. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Spokane Indians · 342 PAwOBA .401 → .306 (−95)K% 23.1% → 31.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.10%÷1.005×1.350——31.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.87%÷1.030×0.710—×1.0128.98%
HBP% /PA1.46%—×0.810—×1.0121.20%
Singles /BIP33.49%÷1.068×0.910×0.952×1.01227.47%
Doubles /BIP6.13%÷1.002×0.830×0.952×1.0124.89%
Triples /BIP0.47%÷0.900×0.820×0.952×1.0120.41%
Home runs /BIP5.19%÷0.999×0.830—×1.0124.36%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 114, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 101, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.

Result: wOBA .401 → .306; ISO .165 → .130; BABIP .421 → .341. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAHartford Yard Goats · 191 PAwOBA .320 → .271 (−49)K% 34.6% → 41.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA34.55%÷1.025×1.220——41.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.09%÷0.940×0.700—×1.04210.16%
HBP% /PA0.52%—×0.850—×1.0420.46%
Singles /BIP26.80%÷1.008×0.970×0.976×1.04226.23%
Doubles /BIP10.31%÷0.913×0.860×0.976×1.0429.87%
Triples /BIP1.03%÷1.150×0.950×0.976×1.0420.87%
Home runs /BIP3.09%÷1.255×0.780—×1.0422.00%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 151, 1B 102, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 105, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .320 → .271; ISO .129 → .100; BABIP .389 → .373. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFresno Grizzlies · 36 PAwOBA .399 → .319 (−80)K% 19.4% → 26.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.44%÷1.011×1.360——26.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.33%÷1.064×0.690—×1.0155.49%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.780—×1.0150.00%
Singles /BIP30.77%÷1.015×0.920—×1.01528.30%
Doubles /BIP3.85%÷1.081×0.830—×1.0153.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.910—×1.0150.00%
Home runs /BIP7.69%÷1.002×0.800—×1.0156.23%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 103, 2B 116, 3B 80, K 102, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .399 → .319; ISO .212 → .162; BABIP .375 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .