Aaron Zavala — OGILVIE

Aaron ZavalaOF Round Rock Express

Age 26 L/R 5'11" / 193 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION307 act + 204 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†63

AVG/OBP/SLG.201 / .276 / .321

PA204

HR4

K%33

BB%8

BABIP293

ISO120

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	A	2 teams	—	93	80	19	4	0	1	8	27	4	9	0	237	337	325	662	88	340	29	9	287	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A	2 teams	—	93	75	22	5	0	1	13	20	4	9	0	293	424	400	824	107	382	22	14	376	146	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	3 teams	—	535	458	100	16	3	13	62	147	14	14	7	218	330	352	681	133	291	27	12	304	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	3 teams	—	535	426	117	18	3	17	94	114	14	14	7	275	421	451	872	176	338	21	18	394	160	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	426	362	57	17	0	4	51	201	8	7	3	157	276	238	513	80	327	47	12	240	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	426	341	66	16	0	5	72	159	8	7	3	194	347	284	631	91	335	37	17	300	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	498	440	80	14	1	4	39	176	9	12	5	182	262	245	508	64	284	35	8	230	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	498	416	93	17	1	5	63	139	9	12	5	224	338	305	643	82	314	28	13	297	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA	3 teams	—	652	582	120	22	6	18	55	256	8	13	7	206	284	357	641	151	326	39	8	279	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA	3 teams	—	652	546	143	27	5	22	91	179	8	13	7	262	375	451	826	189	346	27	14	366	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	26	AAA	TEX	—	307	274	58	14	2	5	24	90	3	4	1	212	282	332	615	120	290	29	8	268	63	-13	+0	+0	-2	+9	-0.6
YTD	26	AAA	TEX	—	307	264	71	19	2	6	34	70	3	4	1	269	359	424	783	155	339	23	11	345	122	+8	+0	+0	-2	+9	1.5
ROS	26	AAA	TEX	10%	204	183	37	8	1	4	17	68	2	3	1	201	276	321	598	120	291	33	8	268	63	-9	+0	+0	-1	+6	-0.4
ROS	26	MLB	TEX	10%	20	18	3	1	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	167	250	222	472	56	292	35	10	261	58	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
FULL	26	AAA	TEX	—	327	292	61	15	2	5	26	97	3	4	1	209	280	325	606	116	289	30	8	268	63	-14	+0	+0	-2	+9	-0.6
TOT	26	AAA	TEX	—	511	457	95	22	3	9	41	158	5	7	2	208	280	328	608	120	291	31	8	268	63	-21	+1	+0	-3	+14	-0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	TEX	31%	336	301	61	13	2	6	28	108	4	5	2	203	279	319	598	116	291	32	8	272	67	-13	+0	+0	-2	+10	-0.5
2028	28	MLB	TEX	42%	364	326	67	14	2	7	31	115	4	5	2	206	283	325	608	120	290	32	9	275	69	-13	+0	-1	-2	+10	-0.5
2027	27	MLB	TEX	31%	104	93	19	4	1	2	9	34	1	1	1	204	282	333	615	129	292	33	9	265	61	-5	-0	+0	-1	+3	-0.2
2028	28	MLB	TEX	42%	153	137	29	6	1	3	13	48	2	2	1	212	289	336	625	124	292	31	8	268	64	-6	+0	-0	-1	+4	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	277	248	51	11	2	5	24	89	3	3	2	206	284	327	610	121	295	32	9	267	62	-12	-0	-0	-2	+8	-0.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	120	26	5	12	56	209	7	7	5	206	284	330	614	124	295	32	9	267	62	-28	-1	-1	-4	+18	-1.5
Career	—			—	3108	2732	541	108	15	57	291	1098	53	68	27	198	288	311	599	113	302	35	9	268	64	-128	+3	-1	-19	+88	-5.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	571	113	23	3	12	61	230	11	14	6	198	287	312	599	114	302	35	9	268	64	-27	+0	-0	-4	+18	-1.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	67	53	16	4	0	1	10	13	3	7	0	302	439	434	873	132	375	19	15	393	159	+4	+1	—	—	+2	0.8
2021	21	ROK	ACL Rangers	—	26	22	6	1	0	0	3	7	1	2	0	273	385	318	703	45	400	27	12	332	112	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2022	22	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	139	112	31	8	0	5	21	29	5	4	1	277	413	482	895	205	329	21	15	398	163	+10	+0	—	—	+4	1.4
2022	22	A+	Hickory Crawdads	—	375	299	83	10	3	11	68	79	8	10	5	278	424	441	865	164	344	21	18	393	159	+25	+0	—	—	+11	3.6
2022	22	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	21	15	3	0	0	1	5	6	1	0	1	200	429	400	829	200	250	29	24	386	154	+1	-0	—	—	+1	0.2
2023	23	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	426	341	66	16	0	5	72	159	8	7	3	194	347	284	631	91	335	37	17	300	88	-6	+0	—	—	+12	0.6
2024	24	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	498	416	93	17	1	5	63	139	9	12	5	224	338	305	643	82	314	28	13	297	85	-8	+0	—	—	+14	0.6
2025	25	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	67	56	12	3	0	2	9	19	0	2	2	214	323	375	698	161	278	28	13	308	94	-0	-0	—	—	+2	0.1
2025	25	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	471	395	97	17	5	14	66	139	6	8	4	246	362	420	782	175	337	30	14	350	126	+14	+0	—	—	+13	2.8
2025	25	INTL	Jaguares de Nayarit	—	114	95	34	7	0	6	16	21	2	3	1	358	460	621	1.081	263	412	18	14	466	215	+15	+0	—	—	+3	1.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	282	5	4	204	279	322	-2	+0	-0.4	-0.2
	/162	664	12	9	204	279	322	-4.0	+0.0	-1.0	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Aaron Zavala (OGILVIE)	26	40	50	45	60	208/280/328	120	291	9	7	31%	8%	63	-0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Justin Toerner 2023 · AAA	26	39	43→45	48→50	44	192/283/299	108	293	11	10	36%	9%	65	-0.7	194/282/315	121	288	13	11	34%	9%	68	-0.5	127/238/245	118	175	14	9	35%	11%	31	-1.0
✕Shayne Fontana 2023 · AAA	26	41	43→45	45→55	45	199/286/310	111	301	11	8	35%	9%	68	-0.5	224/301/327	103	295	10	18	26%	8%	78	+0.2	228/306/322	93	290	9	25	23%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Shane Matheny 2022 · AA	26	39→41	43→45	47→50	39	191/254/300	109	301	11	6	39%	7%	51	-1.7	203/285/337	134	323	15	9	38%	10%	74	-0.1	193/282/326	133	300	16	9	38%	10%	68	-0.3
✕Patrick Dorrian 2022 · AAA	26	40→39	46→55	47→45	40	198/263/328	131	302	14	6	38%	8%	63	-0.9	197/262/350	153	299	19	6	38%	7%	68	-0.5	181/248/332	150	266	20	5	39%	7%	54	-0.8
✕Bruce Caldwell 2018 · AAA	26	42→45	42→45	45→40	41	202/269/304	102	308	10	4	36%	8%	58	-1.2	202/262/310	108	298	11	4	34%	7%	56	-1.3	194/253/297	103	279	11	2	33%	7%	48	-1.3
✕Chantz Mack 2017 · AA	26	44→45	44→45	45	46	217/284/331	113	292	11	5	29%	8%	72	-0.2	215/290/320	105	298	10	6	29%	9%	71	-0.3	158/270/213	55	222	5	0	28%	13%	34	-0.5
✕Mark Contreras 2021 · AA	26	36→37	44→50	47→55	38	184/248/300	115	271	12	13	35%	6%	49	-1.8	201/261/346	145	293	17	19	36%	6%	66	-0.6	197/258/338	141	284	18	24	36%	6%	60	-0.8
✕Will Toffey 2021 · AA	26	44	43→45	46→50	50	211/298/330	120	301	10	7	31%	11%	78	+0.2	203/285/335	132	340	13	12	41%	8%	73	-0.1	184/270/318	133	318	14	13	42%	8%	60	-0.5
✕Ryan Aguilar 2021 · AA	26	40	41→45	49→50	40	187/263/280	92	313	9	8	40%	8%	50	-1.7	191/281/309	118	321	13	13	41%	10%	66	-0.6	177/276/304	128	288	15	14	40%	11%	59	-0.6
✕Josh Ockimey 2022 · AAA	26	39→43	48→50	44→30	48	196/290/334	138	294	17	3	36%	11%	76	+0.1	201/283/343	142	299	16	6	35%	10%	75	-0.0	178/268/326	148	256	17	3	35%	11%	62	-0.7
✕Gosuke Katoh 2021 · AAA	26	45→50	42→45	47→50	43	217/280/317	100	312	10	12	32%	8%	66	-0.6	221/282/335	114	302	10	11	28%	7%	71	-0.3	215/278/327	112	291	10	10	28%	7%	64	-0.5
✕Matt Skole 2015 · AA	26	39→40	46→50	48→40	47	197/277/324	128	281	14	5	34%	10%	67	-0.5	198/264/343	145	254	18	3	29%	8%	66	-0.6	188/253/341	153	230	21	2	28%	7%	60	-0.8
✕Seth Fortenberry 2010 · AA	26	37→43	43→45	51→50	42	184/258/300	116	276	11	10	36%	8%	53	-1.5	191/255/292	101	310	7	9	38%	7%	49	-1.8	158/216/249	91	298	0	4	44%	7%	17	-0.7
✕Art Charles 2017 · AA	26	39→41	46→50	48→30	38	197/254/328	131	299	14	4	37%	7%	58	-1.2	242/305/458	216	333	28	5	34%	8%	114	+2.7	259/327/548	289	332	42	0	34%	9%	148	+1.6
✕Chad De La Guerra 2019 · AAA	26	43→48	43→50	49→45	39	213/262/324	112	295	11	7	31%	6%	60	-1.0	221/279/362	141	315	15	8	33%	7%	78	+0.2	217/284/375	159	308	16	8	33%	8%	79	+0.1
✕Dillon Paulson 2022 · AA	25	46→37	44→50	44→30	44	221/288/338	117	321	11	6	33%	9%	75	-0.0	222/290/344	122	286	12	5	25%	8%	77	+0.1	218/282/326	107	289	9	0	26%	8%	66	-0.2
✕Donald Lutz 2015 · MLB	26	43→49	48→50	52→45	37	217/263/361	144	296	16	8	32%	5%	70	-0.3	203/251/305	102	311	10	8	36%	5%	50	-1.7	167/207/219	52	286	5	2	42%	4%	7	-1.8
✕Richie Robnett 2009 · AAA	25	44	45→50	46→45	40	216/269/342	126	306	12	5	33%	6%	68	-0.5	213/260/325	112	295	9	10	30%	6%	59	-1.1	199/237/311	112	268	8	11	28%	5%	42	-1.1
✕Ford Proctor 2023 · MLB	26	42→49	46→45	43→45	46	203/291/321	118	310	15	5	36%	10%	72	-0.2	215/300/322	107	294	12	8	28%	10%	76	+0.1	206/307/282	77	262	10	5	23%	12%	68	-0.2
✕Brock Lundquist 2021 · AA	25	41→43	44→45	46→45	41	207/269/325	118	287	12	7	31%	7%	64	-0.8	206/275/323	117	358	13	8	42%	8%	66	-0.6	146/233/242	95	291	15	0	51%	8%	30	-0.7