Aaron Zavala
OF Round Rock Express| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AATEX | 498 | .224/.338/.305 | 5 | 12 | 46 | — | .185/.270/.249 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs | 652 | .262/.375/.451 | 22 | 13 | 96 | — | .203/.286/.342 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAATEX | 514 | .266/.357/.428 | 11 | 7 | 75 | — | .224/.296/.348 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 27 | MLBTEX | 16 | .200/.276/.316 | 0 | 0 | 67 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 28 | MLBTEX | 69 | .200/.277/.317 | 1 | 1 | 67 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 67 | 53 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 302 | 439 | 434 | 873 | 132 | 375 | 19 | 15 | 393 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rangers | — | 26 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 273 | 385 | 318 | 703 | 45 | 400 | 27 | 12 | 332 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 139 | 112 | 31 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 29 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 277 | 413 | 482 | 895 | 205 | 329 | 21 | 15 | 398 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | — | 375 | 299 | 83 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 68 | 79 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 278 | 424 | 441 | 865 | 164 | 344 | 21 | 18 | 393 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 21 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 200 | 429 | 400 | 829 | 200 | 250 | 29 | 24 | 386 | 148 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 426 | 341 | 66 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 72 | 159 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 194 | 347 | 284 | 631 | 91 | 335 | 37 | 17 | 300 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 498 | 416 | 93 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 63 | 139 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 224 | 338 | 305 | 643 | 82 | 314 | 28 | 13 | 297 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 67 | 56 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 214 | 323 | 375 | 698 | 161 | 278 | 28 | 13 | 308 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 471 | 395 | 97 | 17 | 5 | 14 | 66 | 139 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 246 | 362 | 420 | 782 | 175 | 337 | 30 | 14 | 350 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | INTL | Jaguares de Nayarit | — | 114 | 95 | 34 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 21 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 358 | 460 | 621 | 1.081 | 263 | 412 | 18 | 14 | 466 | 201 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 514 | 444 | 118 | 33 | 3 | 11 | 56 | 128 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 266 | 357 | 428 | 785 | 162 | 345 | 25 | 11 | 347 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 67 | 56 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 250 | 364 | 357 | 721 | 107 | 334 | 25 | 10 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 26 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 217 | 308 | 261 | 569 | 43 | 317 | 38 | 8 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 139 | 118 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 35 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 246 | 355 | 432 | 787 | 186 | 296 | 25 | 11 | 337 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 375 | 326 | 69 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 41 | 103 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 212 | 315 | 337 | 652 | 126 | 280 | 27 | 11 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 426 | 361 | 58 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 52 | 192 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 161 | 280 | 235 | 516 | 75 | 305 | 45 | 12 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 498 | 437 | 81 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 42 | 168 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 185 | 270 | 249 | 520 | 64 | 270 | 34 | 8 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 67 | 58 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 207 | 292 | 362 | 654 | 155 | 256 | 31 | 10 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 471 | 419 | 85 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 42 | 175 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 203 | 285 | 339 | 624 | 136 | 308 | 37 | 9 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 514 | 460 | 103 | 27 | 3 | 8 | 40 | 154 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 224 | 296 | 348 | 644 | 124 | 302 | 30 | 8 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 93 | 80 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 237 | 337 | 325 | 662 | 88 | 346 | 30 | 9 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 93 | 75 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 20 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 293 | 424 | 400 | 824 | 107 | 382 | 22 | 14 | 376 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 535 | 461 | 102 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 59 | 143 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 221 | 328 | 360 | 688 | 139 | 289 | 27 | 11 | 303 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 535 | 426 | 117 | 18 | 3 | 17 | 94 | 114 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 275 | 421 | 451 | 872 | 176 | 338 | 21 | 18 | 394 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 426 | 361 | 58 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 52 | 192 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 161 | 280 | 235 | 516 | 75 | 318 | 45 | 12 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA RAW | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 426 | 341 | 66 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 72 | 159 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 194 | 347 | 284 | 631 | 91 | 335 | 37 | 17 | 300 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 498 | 437 | 81 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 42 | 168 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 185 | 270 | 249 | 520 | 64 | 282 | 34 | 8 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA RAW | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 498 | 416 | 93 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 63 | 139 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 224 | 338 | 305 | 643 | 82 | 314 | 28 | 13 | 297 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 652 | 578 | 118 | 21 | 6 | 16 | 59 | 237 | 8 | 13 | 7 | 204 | 287 | 344 | 631 | 140 | 309 | 36 | 9 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 652 | 546 | 143 | 27 | 5 | 22 | 91 | 179 | 8 | 13 | 7 | 262 | 375 | 451 | 826 | 189 | 346 | 27 | 14 | 366 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 514 | 460 | 103 | 27 | 3 | 8 | 40 | 154 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 224 | 296 | 348 | 644 | 124 | 314 | 30 | 8 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA RAW | Round Rock Express | — | 514 | 444 | 118 | 33 | 3 | 11 | 56 | 128 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 266 | 357 | 428 | 785 | 162 | 345 | 25 | 11 | 347 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 93 | 81 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 235 | 337 | 321 | 658 | 86 | 329 | 30 | 9 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 535 | 457 | 102 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 59 | 143 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 223 | 328 | 363 | 691 | 140 | 284 | 27 | 11 | 303 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 426 | 363 | 58 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 52 | 192 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 160 | 280 | 234 | 514 | 74 | 305 | 45 | 12 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 498 | 444 | 81 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 42 | 168 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 182 | 270 | 245 | 516 | 63 | 270 | 34 | 8 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 652 | 580 | 118 | 21 | 6 | 16 | 59 | 237 | 8 | 13 | 7 | 203 | 287 | 343 | 630 | 140 | 302 | 36 | 9 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 514 | 462 | 103 | 27 | 3 | 8 | 40 | 154 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 223 | 296 | 346 | 642 | 123 | 302 | 30 | 8 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 498 | 444 | 81 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 42 | 168 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 182 | 270 | 245 | 516 | 63 | 270 | 34 | 8 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 652 | 580 | 118 | 21 | 6 | 16 | 59 | 237 | 8 | 13 | 7 | 203 | 287 | 343 | 630 | 140 | 302 | 36 | 9 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 514 | 462 | 103 | 27 | 3 | 8 | 40 | 154 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 223 | 296 | 346 | 642 | 123 | 302 | 30 | 8 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | TEX | 10% | 380 | 340 | 68 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 120 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 199 | 276 | 313 | 589 | 114 | 282 | 32 | 8 | 268 | 67 | -15 | -0 | +0 | -2 | +8 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | TEX | 10% | 16 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 276 | 316 | 593 | 117 | 281 | 31 | 6 | 269 | 67 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | TEX | 31% | 222 | 199 | 40 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 69 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 200 | 276 | 313 | 590 | 114 | 281 | 31 | 8 | 268 | 67 | -9 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +5 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | TEX | 31% | 69 | 62 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 277 | 317 | 593 | 116 | 280 | 32 | 9 | 269 | 67 | -3 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 69 | 62 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 194 | 275 | 290 | 566 | 97 | 282 | 32 | 9 | 269 | 69 | -3 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 584 | 112 | 28 | 0 | 9 | 57 | 207 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 192 | 274 | 286 | 560 | 94 | 280 | 32 | 9 | 269 | 69 | -25 | +2 | -2 | -4 | +14 | -1.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3095 | 2715 | 549 | 112 | 15 | 54 | 291 | 1040 | 55 | 67 | 28 | 202 | 292 | 314 | 607 | 112 | 300 | 34 | 9 | 270 | 69 | -15 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +8 | -0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 570 | 115 | 24 | 3 | 11 | 61 | 218 | 12 | 14 | 6 | 202 | 292 | 312 | 605 | 111 | 300 | 34 | 9 | 270 | 69 | -25 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +14 | -1.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAARound Rock Express · 514 PAwOBA .342 → .279 (−62)K% 24.9% → 29.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.90% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.89% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.36% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.47% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.966 | ×1.018 | 20.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.44% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.966 | ×1.018 | 8.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.95% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.966 | ×1.018 | 0.91% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 2.48% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .342 → .279; ISO .162 → .126; BABIP .345 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 471 PAwOBA .343 → .277 (−66)K% 29.5% → 37.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.51% | ÷0.971 | ×1.220 | — | — | 37.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.80% | ÷1.080 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 8.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.27% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 1.11% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.83% | ÷0.975 | ×0.920 | ×0.990 | ×0.998 | 22.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.64% | ÷0.968 | ×0.840 | ×0.990 | ×0.998 | 5.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.95% | ÷0.921 | ×0.940 | ×0.990 | ×0.998 | 1.97% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.47% | ÷0.976 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 4.47% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 95, 2B 94, 3B 84, K 94, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .343 → .277; ISO .175 → .145; BABIP .337 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAARound Rock Express · 67 PAwOBA .305 → .270 (−35)K% 28.4% → 31.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.36% | ÷1.086 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.43% | ÷0.962 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 9.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.92% | ÷1.053 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.033 | 17.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.11% | ÷0.881 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.033 | 7.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.921 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.41% | ÷0.913 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 4.28% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 111, 2B 76, 3B 84, K 117, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .305 → .270; ISO .161 → .146; BABIP .278 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 498 PAwOBA .293 → .236 (−57)K% 27.9% → 33.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.91% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.25% | ÷1.034 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 8.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.81% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 1.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.27% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×0.959 | ×1.012 | 22.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.14% | ÷1.012 | ×0.840 | ×0.959 | ×1.012 | 4.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.36% | ÷1.138 | ×0.940 | ×0.959 | ×1.012 | 0.29% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.81% | ÷1.080 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.35% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 104, 2B 102, 3B 128, K 102, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.
Result: wOBA .293 → .236; ISO .082 → .065; BABIP .314 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 426 PAwOBA .297 → .242 (−55)K% 37.3% → 45.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.32% | ÷1.009 | ×1.220 | — | — | 45.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.90% | ÷0.989 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 12.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.88% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 1.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.73% | ÷1.031 | ×0.920 | ×0.980 | ×1.027 | 22.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.79% | ÷0.875 | ×0.840 | ×0.980 | ×1.027 | 8.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.074 | ×0.940 | ×0.980 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.75% | ÷0.974 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 2.32% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 106, 2B 75, 3B 115, K 102, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .297 → .242; ISO .091 → .079; BABIP .335 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Hickory Crawdads · 375 PAwOBA .383 → .291 (−92)K% 21.1% → 27.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.07% | ÷1.007 | ×1.310 | — | — | 27.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.87% | ÷0.985 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 11.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.13% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 1.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.82% | ÷1.039 | ×0.870 | ×0.968 | ×1.012 | 22.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.55% | ÷0.939 | ×0.780 | ×0.968 | ×1.012 | 3.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.36% | ÷0.984 | ×0.850 | ×0.968 | ×1.012 | 1.15% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.123 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 3.96% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 108, 2B 88, 3B 97, K 101, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .383 → .291; ISO .164 → .134; BABIP .344 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 139 PAwOBA .391 → .337 (−54)K% 20.9% → 25.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.86% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.11% | ÷1.012 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 10.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.60% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 3.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.69% | ÷1.003 | ×0.920 | ×0.981 | ×1.042 | 20.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.64% | ÷1.030 | ×0.840 | ×0.981 | ×1.042 | 8.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.981 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.02% | ÷0.915 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 5.49% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .391 → .337; ISO .205 → .184; BABIP .329 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ADown East Wood Ducks · 67 PAwOBA .390 → .321 (−69)K% 19.4% → 26.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.40% | ÷1.017 | ×1.360 | — | — | 25.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.93% | ÷1.050 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 9.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.48% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 3.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.50% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 25.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.006 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 8.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.069 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.50% | ÷0.996 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 2.04% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 104, 2B 101, 3B 114, K 103, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .390 → .321; ISO .132 → .111; BABIP .375 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .