Alexis Hernandez

SS Myrtle Beach Pelicans
Age 22 R/R 6'1" / 155 lbs A HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038
ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202419ACHC204.144/.266/.184210-6—.099/.192/.121
202520A+/A/ROKCHC281.233/.324/.32721735—.180/.244/.251
202621ACHC486.238/.359/.33942753—.185/.276/.257
2027PROJMLE22MLBCHC579.180/.264/.25141648-0.4
2028PROJ34% MLB23MLBCHC155.190/.273/.2782457-0.3
2029PROJ46% MLB24MLBCHC229.196/.279/.2953663-0.2
Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A
Chase%85
BB%76
Z-Con%76
Speed66
Whiff%58
wRC+51
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%
CompsNelson Medina (age 21) · Jose Curpa (age 22) · Christian Cairo (age 22)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA
wRC+†48
AVG/OBP/SLG.179 / .261 / .248
PA210
HR1
SB6
K%32
BB%10
ISO70
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -12.9 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-13BATRUN: +0.6 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +2.2 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: -0.40-0.4WAR
0.00.51.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 33 / POW 37
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT33
scouting grade only
POWER37
scouting grade only
EYE59
scouting grade only
SPEED59
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2032
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2037
First FA Year   2038
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-0.3M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202217 ROKDSL Cubs Red — 141123 30602 16271 104 244336341677 98295 1911 310 19 — — — — — —
202318 ROKACL Cubs — 150130 41943 18502 92 315407515922 200494 3312 406 57 — — — — — —
202419 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 204174 25102 28761 100 144266184450 40240 3714 224 -6 — — — — — —
202520 A+South Bend Cubs — 5242 11201 10100 10 262404381785 119323 1919 363 84 — — — — — —
202520 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 9381 14400 7223 42 173264222486 49230 248 229 9 — — — — — —
202520 ROKACL Cubs — 136122 32721 13280 124 262333377710 115330 2110 318 34 — — — — — —
202621 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 486404 962144 751252 279 238359339698 101330 2615 321 53 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202217 ROK MLEDSL Cubs Red — 141128 20401 11351 104 156229211440 55197 258 196 19 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEACL Cubs — 150137 26522 11722 92 190260299559 109386 487 252 57 — — — — — —
202419 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 204182 18101 201051 100 99192121313 22222 5110 159 -6 — — — — — —
202520 A+ MLESouth Bend Cubs — 5245 11201 7120 10 244346356702 111290 2313 292 84 — — — — — —
202520 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 9384 12300 4313 42 143209179387 36211 334 181 9 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEACL Cubs — 136127 23511 8420 124 181230260489 79258 316 218 34 — — — — — —
202621 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 486428 791633 521702 279 185276257533 72290 3511 246 53 — — — — — —
202217 ROK MLEDSL Cubs Red — 141128 20401 11351 104 156229211440 55204 258 196 19 — — — — — —
202217 ROK RAWDSL Cubs Red — 141123 30602 16271 104 244336341677 98295 1911 310 19 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEACL Cubs — 150137 26522 11722 92 190260299559 109381 487 252 57 — — — — — —
202318 ROK RAWACL Cubs — 150130 41943 18502 92 315407515922 200494 3312 406 57 — — — — — —
202419 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 204182 18101 201051 100 99192121313 22224 5110 159 -6 — — — — — —
202419 A RAWMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 204174 25102 28761 100 144266184450 40240 3714 224 -6 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLE3 teams — 281255 461012 20853 176 180248251499 71257 307 219 35 — — — — — —
202520 ROK RAW3 teams — 281245 571322 30603 176 233324327650 94296 2111 297 35 — — — — — —
202621 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 486428 791633 521702 279 185276257533 72293 3511 246 53 — — — — — —
202621 A RAWMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 486404 962144 751252 279 238359339698 101330 2615 321 53 — — — — — —
202217 ROK MLEDSL Cubs Red — 141128 20401 11351 104 156229211440 55197 258 196 19 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEACL Cubs — 150136 26522 11722 92 191260301561 110386 487 252 57 — — — — — —
202419 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 204181 18101 201051 100 99192122314 22222 5110 159 -6 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLE3 teams — 281256 461012 20853 176 180248250498 70248 307 219 35 — — — — — —
202621 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 486429 791633 521702 279 184276256532 72290 3511 246 53 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202419 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 204181 18101 201051 100 99192122314 22222 5110 159 -6 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLE3 teams — 281256 461012 20853 176 180248250498 70248 307 219 35 — — — — — —
202621 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 486429 791633 521702 279 184276256532 72290 3511 246 53 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202722 MLB MLECHC 0% 579516 931934 551843 165 180264251514 70268 329 240 48 -36 +1 +0 +6 +13 -0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202823 MLB MLECHC 34% 451403 751525 431402 124 188271274546 86271 3110 252 57 -23 +1 +0 +5 +10 -0.8
202924 MLB MLECHC 46% 496442 861737 481503 134 194277292569 98273 3010 261 63 -22 +1 +0 +5 +11 -0.5
203025 MLB MLECHC 52% 523465 931839 501563 134 198281304584 106274 3010 267 67 -21 +1 +0 +6 +11 -0.3
203126 MLB MLECHC 54% 537477 951839 521583 134 201283311594 110275 2910 271 69 -20 +1 +0 +6 +12 -0.1
203227 MLB MLECHC 58% 539479 9819310 521583 134 202284313597 111275 2910 272 70 -19 +1 +0 +6 +12 -0.1
203328 MLB MLECHC 61% 536477 951839 511583 114 200282309591 108275 2910 270 69 -20 +1 -1 +6 +12 -0.3
202823 MLB CTXCHC 34% 155138 26512 15481 41 190273278551 88274 3110 254 57 -8 +0 +0 +2 +3 -0.3
202924 MLB CTXCHC 46% 229204 39813 22691 62 196279295574 99276 3010 263 63 -10 +0 +0 +2 +5 -0.2
203025 MLB CTXCHC 52% 270240 48924 26812 72 200282306589 107278 3010 269 67 -11 +1 +0 +3 +6 -0.1
203126 MLB CTXCHC 54% 291259 521025 28862 72 202285313598 111278 3010 272 69 -11 +1 +0 +3 +6 -0.1
203227 MLB CTXCHC 58% 314279 561125 30922 82 204286316601 112279 2910 274 70 -11 +1 +0 +3 +7 -0.0
203328 MLB CTXCHC 61% 326290 591225 31962 72 202284311595 109278 2910 271 69 -12 +1 -0 +3 +7 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 15851410 280551024 15247210 3911 199281303584 104278 3010 269 57 -63 +3 -0 +17 +34 -0.9
/ 162G— A+C — 650578 11523410 621944 165 199281304585 106279 3010 269 57 -26 +1 -0 +7 +14 -0.3
Career— MLE — 45544060 7641482459 430145427 15447 188270280550 92274 329 252 57 -137 +6 -1 +35 +71 -2.6
/ 162G— MLE — 650579 1082138 612084 227 187269275543 88272 329 252 57 -27 +1 -0 +7 +14 -0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 486 PAwOBA .317 → .246 (−71)K% 25.7% → 35.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.72%÷1.000×1.360——34.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.43%÷1.000×0.690——10.65%
HBP% /PA0.41%—×0.780——0.32%
Singles /BIP24.01%÷1.000×0.920×0.982—21.69%
Doubles /BIP7.53%÷1.000×0.830×0.982—6.13%
Triples /BIP1.43%÷1.000×0.910×0.982—1.28%
Home runs /BIP1.43%÷1.000×0.800——1.15%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.

Result: wOBA .317 → .246; ISO .101 → .079; BABIP .330 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Cubs · 136 PAwOBA .312 → .218 (−95)K% 20.6% → 30.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.59%÷0.969×1.440——30.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.56%÷0.983×0.620—×0.9855.94%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×0.9850.00%
Singles /BIP23.40%÷1.004×0.820×1.008×0.98518.97%
Doubles /BIP7.45%÷0.973×0.720×1.008×0.9855.47%
Triples /BIP2.13%÷1.089×0.720×1.008×0.9851.40%
Home runs /BIP1.06%÷0.868×0.780—×0.9850.94%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 101, 2B 95, 3B 118, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .312 → .218; ISO .115 → .078; BABIP .330 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 93 PAwOBA .228 → .181 (−47)K% 23.7% → 33.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.66%÷0.956×1.360——33.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.53%÷1.106×0.690—×1.0154.77%
HBP% /PA3.23%—×0.780—×1.0152.55%
Singles /BIP16.95%÷0.990×0.920×0.997×1.01515.95%
Doubles /BIP6.78%÷0.968×0.830×0.997×1.0155.89%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.910×0.997×1.0150.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.925×0.800—×1.0150.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 98, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 91, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .228 → .181; ISO .049 → .040; BABIP .230 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+South Bend Cubs · 52 PAwOBA .355 → .292 (−62)K% 19.2% → 23.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.23%÷1.051×1.270——23.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA19.23%÷1.042×0.710—×1.02713.46%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.790—×1.0270.00%
Singles /BIP25.00%÷1.021×0.920—×1.02723.13%
Doubles /BIP6.25%÷1.000×0.810—×1.0275.20%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.850—×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP3.12%÷1.106×0.800—×1.0272.32%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 104, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 110, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .355 → .292; ISO .119 → .095; BABIP .323 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 204 PAwOBA .219 → .159 (−60)K% 37.3% → 51.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA37.25%÷0.985×1.360——51.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.73%÷1.007×0.690—×1.0309.69%
HBP% /PA0.49%—×0.780—×1.0300.39%
Singles /BIP22.45%÷0.997×0.920×0.981×1.03020.91%
Doubles /BIP1.02%÷0.986×0.830×0.981×1.0300.87%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.910×0.981×1.0300.00%
Home runs /BIP2.04%÷0.908×0.800—×1.0301.85%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 97, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .219 → .159; ISO .040 → .029; BABIP .240 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Cubs · 150 PAwOBA .396 → .252 (−144)K% 33.3% → 48.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA33.33%÷1.000×1.440——48.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.00%÷1.000×0.620—×1.0087.50%
HBP% /PA1.33%—×0.720—×1.0080.97%
Singles /BIP31.25%÷1.000×0.820×0.996×1.00825.71%
Doubles /BIP11.25%÷1.000×0.720×0.996×1.0088.13%
Triples /BIP5.00%÷1.000×0.720×0.996×1.0083.61%
Home runs /BIP3.75%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0082.95%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .396 → .252; ISO .200 → .122; BABIP .494 → .386. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 DSLDSL Cubs Red · 141 PAwOBA .304 → .196 (−108)K% 19.1% → 24.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.15%÷0.954×1.220——24.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.35%÷1.039×0.700—×1.0087.70%
HBP% /PA0.71%—×0.700—×1.0080.50%
Singles /BIP22.92%÷1.002×0.680×1.013×1.00815.87%
Doubles /BIP6.25%÷0.999×0.600×1.013×1.0083.83%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.938×0.600×1.013×1.0080.00%
Home runs /BIP2.08%÷1.154×0.470—×1.0080.86%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 131, 1B 100, 2B 100, 3B 88, K 91, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.

Result: wOBA .304 → .196; ISO .098 → .049; BABIP .295 → .197. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).