Alexis HernandezSS Myrtle Beach Pelicans
Age 21 R/R 6'1" / 155 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
2026 ROS PROJECTION341 act + 227 ros · stats below = ROS only
wRC+†44
AVG/OBP/SLG.191 / .266 / .264
PA227
HR1
SB10
K%34
BB%9
BABIP301
ISO73
MLB%0%
Value2026 · WAR
BAT: -32.4 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-32BATRUN: +2.0 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+2RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +6.1 runs (Positional adjustment)+6POSREP: +16.1 runs (Replacement-level credit)+16REPTotal WAR: -0.90-0.9WAR
0.00.51.00.20.40.50.5+$11M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 37
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT25
scouting grade only
POWER37
scouting grade only
EYE55
scouting grade only
SPEED60
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2031
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2036
First FA Year   2037
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.5$1M+$0.8M
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.5$1M+$0.8M
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $2M $3M +$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202217 ROKDSL Cubs Red — 141130 22401 9431 104 169229223452 54241 306 206 16 — — — — — —
202217 ROKDSL Cubs Red — 141123 30602 16271 104 244336341677 98295 1911 310 95 — — — — — —
202318 ROKACL Cubs — 150137 26522 11722 92 190260299559 109381 487 250 50 — — — — — —
202318 ROKACL Cubs — 150130 41943 18502 92 315407515922 200494 3312 406 169 — — — — — —
202419 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 204185 18102 171111 100 97177135312 38222 548 149 -28 — — — — — —
202419 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 204174 25102 28761 100 144266184450 40240 3714 224 29 — — — — — —
202520 ROK3 teams — 281257 451012 18893 176 175237245483 70254 326 216 23 — — — — — —
202520 ROK3 teams — 281245 571322 30603 176 233324327650 94296 2111 297 85 — — — — — —
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD21 ACHC — 341304 621332 331191 239 204284286570 82323 3510 255 53 -18 +1 +0 +4 +10 -0.4
YTD21 ACHC — 341284 731742 52841 239 257373366739 109353 2515 336 116 +6 +1 +0 +4 +10 2.1
ROS21 ACHC 0% 227204 39821 20781 104 191266264531 73290 349 243 44 -14 +0 +0 +2 +6 -0.5
ROS21 MLBCHC 0% 01 0000 000 00 —— 291 —— 240 42 — — +0 +0 — —
FULL21 ACHC — 341305 621332 331191 239 203284285569 82321 3510 255 53 -18 +1 +0 +4 +10 -0.4
TOT21 ACHC — 568508 1012153 531972 3313 199277277554 79314 359 250 50 -32 +1 +0 +6 +16 -0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202722 MLBCHC 34% 420378 741534 371382 134 196271283554 87291 339 254 53 -22 +1 +0 +4 +12 -0.5
202823 MLBCHC 48% 474426 861737 421513 145 202278305583 103292 329 267 62 -20 +1 +0 +5 +13 -0.1
202924 MLBCHC 53% 508454 941839 461583 145 207284319604 112293 319 275 68 -18 +1 +0 +5 +14 0.2
203025 MLBCHC 55% 523466 9819310 481614 145 210290328618 118293 319 279 71 -17 +1 +0 +6 +15 0.4
203126 MLBCHC 56% 529472 9919310 481624 145 210288326614 117293 319 280 72 -17 +1 +0 +6 +15 0.5
203227 MLBCHC 55% 529471 9919310 491634 145 210290327617 117293 319 280 72 -16 +1 +0 +6 +15 0.5
202722 MLBCHC 34% 144129 26512 13471 42 202280302582 101292 339 251 50 -8 +0 +0 +2 +4 -0.2
202823 MLBCHC 48% 230206 41813 21731 72 199276291568 92293 329 263 60 -10 +1 +0 +2 +7 -0.1
202924 MLBCHC 53% 268240 511025 24832 83 212289333623 121294 319 271 66 -10 +0 +0 +3 +8 0.0
203025 MLBCHC 55% 286256 541125 26882 83 211289328617 117294 319 275 69 -10 +0 +0 +3 +8 0.1
203126 MLBCHC 56% 294263 561126 27902 83 213291338629 125294 319 276 70 -10 +0 +0 +3 +8 0.2
203227 MLBCHC 55% 291260 561126 27892 83 215294342636 127294 319 276 70 -10 +0 +0 +3 +8 0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career— — 15131355 284561027 13847010 4316 210288325613 116297 319 271 65 -59 +2 +0 +16 +43 0.2
/ 162G— — 650582 12224412 592024 187 210287326613 117296 319 271 65 -25 +1 +0 +7 +18 0.1
Career— — 39863580 7001352358 345132628 13945 196271295566 99290 339 258 55 -201 +10 +0 +43 +113 -3.6
/ 162G— — 650584 1142249 562165 237 195271293564 98290 339 258 55 -33 +2 +0 +7 +18 -0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202217 ROKDSL Cubs Red — 141123 30602 16271 104 244336341677 98295 1911 310 95 -1 +0 — — +4 0.4
202318 ROKACL Cubs — 150130 41943 18502 92 315407515922 200494 3312 406 169 +12 +1 — — +4 1.7
202419 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 204174 25102 28761 100 144266184450 40240 3714 224 29 -16 +2 — — +6 -0.9
202520 A+South Bend Cubs — 5242 11201 10100 10 262404381785 119323 1919 363 136 +2 +0 — — +1 0.4
202520 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 9381 14400 7223 42 173264222486 49230 248 229 33 -7 +0 — — +3 -0.4
202520 ROKACL Cubs — 136122 32721 13280 124 262333377710 115330 2110 318 102 +0 +1 — — +4 0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 gamesYRSPAHRSBAVGOBPSLGPOSFLDWARJAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22
career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA
91,648311209276313+29+566.46.7
/162664120+11.9+22.42.6pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09
career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA
91,844192219297308+17+525.65.8
/16266471+6.1+18.72.0pk7: 6
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13
career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA
92,7834039246289354+28+195.55.6
/162664109+6.7+4.51.3pk7: 6
#4Adam Engellast yr '22
career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA
61,5403047225280350+4+334.24.2
/1626641320+1.8+14.41.8pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19
career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA
71,680226230279335+9+212.02.0
/16266492+3.7+8.50.8pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION
career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons
41,8332951202276307+20+12-0.50.2
/1626641018+7.1+4.3-0.2pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17
career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA
71,9012139231275323+14-6-1.1-1.1
/162664714+4.9-2.1-0.4pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Alexis Hernandez (OGILVIE) 21 20→25 32→37 55→60 55 199/277/277 79314 333 35% 9% 50 -0.9 ————————— —————————
✕Frankeny Fernandez
2017 · A 		20 36 38→40 53→60 42 174/248/255 81275 519 36% 8% 37 -2.6 193/258/268 75281 510 31% 7% 44 -2.1 172/238/215432393627%7%20-1.1
✕Victor Soto
2010 · A 		21 39 37→45 56→60 40 188/240/265 77263 322 29% 5% 35 -2.8 199/243/272 73293 314 31% 5% 37 -2.6 187/218/2375027901832%3%15-0.8
✕Nelson Medina
2022 · A 		21 39 38→45 53→50 47 187/270/270 84274 515 31% 9% 51 -1.7 185/255/279 94336 713 43% 8% 46 -2.0 134/194/2097529151652%6%-1-1.8
✕Luke Williams
2018 · A 		21 39→46 35→45 55→60 41 188/231/243 55251 318 26% 5% 25 -3.5 199/255/286 87268 718 27% 6% 47 -1.9 230/291/360130317134230%7%79+0.2
✕Chris Roller
2018 · A 		21 37 37→50 53→55 45 178/254/255 77243 412 27% 8% 40 -2.4 208/276/322 114297 811 31% 7% 66 -0.6 179/262/313134284161640%8%57-0.7
✕Christian Cairo
2022 · A 		21 39→46 40 53→60 46 187/281/276 89288 716 34% 10% 58 -1.2 194/293/274 80293 618 32% 11% 63 -0.9 214/304/2836830343427%10%66-0.4
✕Ismael Alcantara
2019 · A 		20 39→28 38→45 51→50 41 185/255/266 81281 513 34% 7% 43 -2.2 211/277/317 106330 915 36% 7% 64 -0.8 193/256/311118287121635%6%52-0.7
✕Kenny Wilson
2011 · A 		21 36→46 35→40 56→60 40 170/243/223 53273 226 36% 7% 27 -3.3 191/262/262 71286 428 32% 7% 45 -2.1 195/262/2899430282235%6%49-0.7
✕Robert Del Rosario
2013 · A 		21 40 36→40 53→55 45 191/251/257 67255 415 26% 7% 38 -2.6 212/263/277 65287 313 26% 6% 47 -1.9 226/270/2694330301724%4%46-0.7
✕Jose Curpa
2022 · A 		22 40 36→30 58→55 46 184/272/253 69286 224 33% 10% 47 -1.9 206/292/291 85310 617 32% 9% 65 -0.7 198/299/2636529652331%10%59-0.3
✕Grolmann Gonzalez
2010 · A 		21 40 38→40 52→55 42 193/255/277 85272 49 29% 7% 45 -2.1 209/265/303 94303 67 31% 6% 56 -1.3 218/266/3191013077430%6%58-0.2
✕Gilbert Gomez
2012 · A 		20 39→35 40 52→50 40 193/252/284 91274 714 31% 6% 46 -2.0 201/271/278 77305 48 32% 8% 53 -1.5 191/271/264742963733%9%45-1.3
✕Ricardo Rosario
2023 · A 		20 40 37→40 50→55 42 191/251/266 76262 412 28% 6% 40 -2.4 205/277/292 87289 819 29% 8% 59 -1.1 203/290/29289267112926%9%63-0.4
✕Geovanny Planchart
2023 · A 		21 41 36→40 50→40 46 190/271/255 65295 35 34% 10% 46 -2.0 197/283/279 82287 54 30% 10% 58 -1.2 185/278/265802636229%11%51-0.7
✕Kyle Nevin
2023 · A 		21 41→38 40→45 52→50 38 198/249/295 97282 610 31% 5% 47 -1.9 217/274/320 103339 910 36% 7% 64 -0.8 212/271/3099733491237%7%57-0.7
✕Cristian Paulino
2013 · A 		21 41 37→40 55→60 40 197/250/272 75271 417 28% 6% 41 -2.3 209/254/301 92275 621 25% 4% 50 -1.8 209/253/31010126972824%4%48-0.6
✕Aaron McKeithan
2022 · A 		22 40 38→40 49→40 40 194/261/274 80272 67 29% 6% 47 -1.9 217/294/301 84283 84 25% 7% 69 -0.4 216/298/285692797123%7%66-0.3
✕Sander Mora
2022 · A 		21 39 37→30 52→55 44 185/262/260 74275 512 32% 8% 44 -2.1 178/254/260 82312 79 41% 9% 41 -2.3 127/218/1926522871143%10%7-1.9
✕Jose Vinicio
2014 · A 		21 39→30 36→40 51→55 32 189/218/250 60273 319 32% 3% 20 -3.8 217/246/283 66295 313 26% 3% 40 -2.4 246/270/3086231511222%3%53-0.5
✕Gorge Munoz
2017 · A 		21 43 38→40 50→55 42 205/260/282 78258 517 22% 5% 48 -1.9 205/257/290 85298 710 32% 5% 49 -1.8 185/231/261772879937%3%28-0.8