Roderick Arias — OGILVIE

Roderick AriasSS Hudson Valley Renegades

Age 21 S/R 6'0" / 178 lbs A+ HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION331 act + 220 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†56

AVG/OBP/SLG.192 / .270 / .314

PA220

HR5

SB12

K%39

BB%8

BABIP307

ISO121

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$6M	+$6M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+1.0	$5M	+$4M
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.4M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$8M		$25M	+$21M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	140	118	12	3	1	1	18	69	4	10	2	102	243	169	412	68	229	49	13	208	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	140	108	21	6	2	3	28	46	4	10	2	194	379	370	749	176	305	33	20	348	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	130	111	18	1	2	2	17	46	1	17	6	162	279	261	540	99	250	35	13	251	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	130	101	27	2	2	6	27	29	1	17	6	267	426	505	931	238	313	22	21	410	172	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	552	496	74	15	5	9	45	264	7	37	13	149	230	254	484	105	286	48	8	221	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	552	473	110	21	8	13	68	171	7	37	13	233	338	393	731	161	331	31	12	328	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	465	408	57	14	1	8	52	191	4	34	10	140	244	238	481	98	233	41	11	221	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	465	394	82	19	1	7	65	134	4	34	10	208	325	315	640	107	295	29	14	298	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	A+	NYY	—	331	298	63	11	1	8	20	131	8	25	8	211	279	336	615	124	335	40	6	266	62	-14	+2	+0	+4	+9	0.0
YTD	21	A+	NYY	—	331	288	76	14	1	11	30	98	8	25	8	264	350	434	784	170	353	30	9	346	123	+9	+2	+0	+4	+9	2.4
ROS	21	A+	NYY	0%	220	197	38	7	1	5	17	86	4	12	4	192	270	314	583	121	299	39	8	258	56	-11	+1	+0	+2	+6	-0.2
ROS	21	MLB	NYY	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						301	0	0	248	48	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	21	A+	NYY	—	332	299	63	11	1	8	20	131	8	25	8	211	278	334	613	124	333	39	6	266	62	-14	+2	+0	+4	+9	0.0
TOT	21	A+	NYY	—	551	495	101	18	2	13	37	217	12	37	12	204	275	327	602	123	324	39	7	263	59	-25	+3	+0	+6	+16	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	NYY	35%	534	478	93	17	2	13	43	198	8	23	7	195	272	320	592	126	297	37	8	268	63	-22	+2	+0	+6	+15	0.0
2028	23	MLB	NYY	49%	578	518	104	19	2	15	47	206	8	25	8	201	277	332	610	131	297	36	8	277	70	-19	+2	+0	+6	+16	0.5
2029	24	MLB	NYY	53%	607	543	113	21	3	17	50	210	9	26	8	208	286	352	637	144	297	35	8	284	75	-17	+2	+0	+7	+17	0.9
2030	25	MLB	NYY	55%	623	557	116	21	3	18	52	213	9	27	9	208	286	354	640	145	297	34	8	287	78	-16	+2	+0	+7	+18	1.1
2031	26	MLB	NYY	56%	630	562	118	22	3	18	54	215	9	27	9	210	290	356	645	146	297	34	9	288	79	-15	+2	+0	+7	+18	1.1
2032	27	MLB	NYY	55%	630	562	118	22	3	18	54	215	9	27	9	210	290	356	645	146	297	34	9	288	79	-15	+2	+0	+7	+18	1.2
2033	28	MLB	NYY	55%	625	557	116	21	3	18	54	215	9	26	8	208	289	354	642	145	297	34	9	287	78	-15	+2	-1	+7	+18	1.0
2034	29	MLB	NYY	58%	615	547	112	21	2	17	54	212	9	23	7	205	287	344	631	139	296	34	9	286	77	-16	+2	-1	+7	+17	0.8
2027	22	MLB	NYY	35%	185	165	33	6	1	5	15	69	3	8	3	200	279	339	618	139	298	37	8	260	57	-9	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.1
2028	23	MLB	NYY	49%	281	252	52	10	1	8	23	100	4	12	4	206	283	349	632	143	299	36	8	270	65	-11	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.1
2029	24	MLB	NYY	53%	320	285	59	11	1	9	27	111	5	14	4	207	287	347	634	140	299	35	8	276	69	-11	+1	+0	+3	+9	0.3
2030	25	MLB	NYY	55%	341	304	64	12	1	10	29	116	5	15	5	211	290	355	645	145	299	34	9	280	72	-11	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.4
2031	26	MLB	NYY	56%	351	313	66	12	2	10	30	120	5	15	5	211	290	358	648	147	299	34	9	281	73	-11	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.4
2032	27	MLB	NYY	55%	347	309	64	12	1	10	30	119	5	15	5	207	288	350	637	142	299	34	9	281	73	-11	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.4
2033	28	MLB	NYY	55%	342	304	63	12	1	10	30	117	5	14	4	207	289	352	641	145	299	34	9	280	72	-11	+1	-0	+4	+10	0.4
2034	29	MLB	NYY	58%	356	317	65	12	1	10	31	123	5	14	4	205	286	344	630	139	298	35	9	278	71	-12	+1	-1	+4	+10	0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2524	2250	466	87	9	72	215	875	37	107	34	207	287	350	637	143	299	35	9	277	70	-86	+8	-1	+27	+72	2.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	120	22	2	19	55	225	10	28	9	207	287	351	638	143	298	35	8	277	70	-22	+2	-0	+7	+18	0.5
Career	—			—	6349	5654	1089	204	31	159	557	2340	90	314	100	193	275	324	599	131	292	37	9	270	65	-251	+23	-2	+68	+180	1.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	111	21	3	16	57	240	9	32	10	192	274	321	596	130	291	37	9	270	65	-26	+2	-0	+7	+18	0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	140	108	21	6	2	3	28	46	4	10	2	194	379	370	749	176	305	33	20	348	124	+4	+1	—	—	+4	0.9
2023	18	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	130	101	27	2	2	6	27	29	1	17	6	267	426	505	931	238	313	22	21	410	172	+11	+1	—	—	+4	1.6
2024	19	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	552	473	110	21	8	13	68	171	7	37	13	233	338	393	731	161	331	31	12	328	109	+6	+2	—	—	+16	2.4
2025	20	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	465	394	82	19	1	7	65	134	4	34	10	208	325	315	640	107	295	29	14	298	86	-7	+3	—	—	+13	0.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Rougned Odorlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,424 PA	10	4,424	178	70	230	288	422	+16	+32	15.2	15.0
	/162	664	27	11	230	288	422	+2.4	+4.9	2.3	pk7: 15
#2Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	8	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
	/162	664	19	34	244	314	394	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
#3Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#4Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#5Leonys Martinlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,784 PA	8	2,784	58	126	243	301	366	+10	+53	10.7	10.8
	/162	664	14	30	243	301	366	+2.4	+12.6	2.6	pk7: 11
#6Everth Cabreralast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,059 PA	6	2,059	12	136	247	316	328	+22	-1	5.1	5.1
	/162	664	4	44	247	316	328	+7.1	-0.5	1.6	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	2,523	69	106	207	283	347	+27	+12	3.7	3.7
	/162	664	18	28	207	283	347	+7.1	+3.2	1.0	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Roderick Arias (OGILVIE)	21	25	30	60	55	204/275/327	123	324	13	37	39%	7%	59	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Hayden Cantrelle 2022 · AA	23	34	40→45	54→60	55	161/294/251	90	257	7	24	35%	14%	59	-1.1	189/306/294	105	299	8	20	35%	12%	73	-0.1	189/308/299	110	300	9	21	35%	12%	73	-0.1
✕Frankeny Fernandez 2017 · A	20	36	38→40	53→60	42	174/248/255	81	275	5	19	36%	8%	37	-2.6	193/258/268	75	281	5	10	31%	7%	44	-2.1	172/238/215	43	239	3	6	27%	7%	20	-1.1
✕Christian Cairo 2022 · A	21	39→46	40	53→60	46	187/281/276	89	288	7	16	34%	10%	58	-1.2	194/293/274	80	293	6	18	32%	11%	63	-0.9	214/304/283	68	303	4	34	27%	10%	66	-0.4
✕Brainer Bonaci 2023 · A	21	42	41→45	55→50	50	202/289/303	101	287	8	16	30%	10%	67	-0.5	220/278/339	119	309	13	11	31%	7%	71	-0.3	222/264/350	128	302	16	8	31%	5%	64	-0.4
✕Reidy Mercado 2022 · A	21	42	37→30	56→60	40	198/254/268	70	293	4	21	32%	6%	41	-2.3	185/235/238	53	302	2	20	37%	6%	25	-3.5	163/211/196	34	268	1	31	37%	5%	1	-1.3
✕Brenny Escanio 2023 · A	20	36→37	41→30	51→55	46	178/266/277	99	265	8	16	33%	10%	51	-1.7	179/252/245	66	298	3	15	37%	9%	36	-2.7	167/242/222	55	282	3	17	38%	9%	24	-1.9
✕Viandel Pena 2023 · A	22	38→43	39→40	55	39	181/244/265	84	301	5	18	39%	8%	37	-2.7	202/266/282	80	311	4	18	33%	8%	50	-1.7	203/267/280	77	301	4	19	31%	8%	46	-1.0
✕Nerwilian Cedeño 2023 · A	21	41→32	44→45	51→50	43	198/275/314	116	304	11	15	36%	9%	64	-0.8	190/252/301	111	285	11	11	35%	7%	50	-1.7	178/236/280	102	260	11	10	34%	6%	35	-1.5
✕GJ Hill 2022 · A	21	36→27	40→50	57→55	28	156/219/242	86	346	8	21	54%	6%	21	-3.7	173/240/281	108	331	12	15	48%	7%	40	-2.4	171/235/325	154	252	20	28	40%	6%	48	-0.8
✕Emmanuel Morel 2017 · A	20	40	34→30	50→55	44	183/259/238	55	287	2	15	34%	9%	37	-2.7	196/261/262	66	318	2	13	36%	7%	43	-2.2	183/249/232	49	297	0	21	35%	6%	27	-0.8
✕Luis Alexander Basabe 2018 · A	21	41→45	41→45	54→50	38	197/249/295	98	294	7	15	34%	6%	46	-2.0	197/262/301	104	314	9	14	37%	8%	54	-1.4	188/260/297	109	305	11	14	39%	8%	50	-0.9
✕C.J. Beatty 2010 · A	21	40	42→45	52→40	41	198/253/297	98	278	9	9	31%	7%	49	-1.8	209/271/322	113	297	9	5	31%	8%	63	-0.8	201/268/328	127	281	10	2	30%	8%	60	-0.6
✕Jamari Baylor 2023 · A	22	39	42→45	50→55	42	167/279/271	104	330	9	19	46%	10%	57	-1.2	187/286/292	105	341	10	16	43%	10%	64	-0.8	174/275/291	117	297	14	17	42%	9%	57	-0.3
✕Yonki Hernandez 2012 · A	21	41	36→40	53→55	47	189/286/258	68	278	3	17	30%	9%	55	-1.4	197/263/272	75	318	4	18	36%	7%	47	-1.9	179/228/215	36	302	3	27	40%	6%	13	-1.0
✕Robert Moore 2023 · A	21	42→40	41→45	50	42	203/268/305	102	288	9	13	31%	7%	58	-1.2	192/255/288	96	258	8	15	27%	6%	48	-1.9	192/256/302	110	236	11	15	24%	6%	50	-0.9
✕Rudy Martin Jr. 2017 · A	21	44	38→45	58→65	42	203/276/285	82	317	4	20	34%	8%	56	-1.3	199/259/296	97	325	8	29	38%	7%	52	-1.6	227/303/343	115	312	13	52	29%	9%	78	+0.1
✕Cole Roederer 2021 · A	21	38→31	43→45	51→50	41	190/257/298	109	284	11	12	35%	8%	52	-1.6	205/269/317	112	309	11	12	35%	7%	62	-0.9	180/254/293	113	270	13	11	36%	8%	49	-1.0
✕Manuel Geraldo 2018 · A	21	38→48	39→40	52→50	32	188/224/268	80	281	8	14	35%	3%	29	-3.2	217/250/299	82	329	7	14	35%	4%	47	-1.9	220/252/297	77	332	6	14	34%	4%	44	-1.9
✕Isaiah Greene 2023 · A	21	44→41	37→40	56→55	51	197/300/273	76	315	4	20	35%	12%	65	-0.7	186/270/272	86	315	6	17	38%	10%	51	-1.7	143/226/223	80	254	5	17	42%	10%	17	-1.1
✕Roberto Reyes 2010 · A	21	38	38→40	56→55	40	180/254/263	84	299	6	15	39%	8%	42	-2.3	194/253/277	83	300	5	8	35%	6%	43	-2.2	182/234/254	72	263	5	2	31%	5%	28	-1.1