Roderick Arias — OGILVIE

Roderick AriasSS Hudson Valley Renegades

Age 21 S/R 6'0" / 178 lbs A+ HR +8%BB +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.0 · 2030

wRC+†33

AVG/OBP/SLG.162 / .252 / .263

PA320

HR5

SB19

K%42

BB%10

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

25→25

PWR

30→30

SPD

60→60

EYE

54↗55

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.0peak

2031

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.0	$9M	+$8M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.0	$9M	+$8M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+1.0	$10M	+$9M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.9	$4M	+$2M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+0.7	$4M	+$0.9M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.4	$2M	-$0.4M
Totals		$10M		$38M	+$28M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	140	118	12	3	1	1	18	68	4	10	2	.102	.243	.169	.412	.068	.224	49	13	.211	20	-13	+1	+0	+2	+4	-0.6
2023	18	ROK	FCL Yankees	130	111	19	1	2	3	17	46	1	17	6	.171	.287	.297	.584	.126	.254	35	13	.257	55	-7	+1	+0	+1	+4	-0.1
2024	19	A	Tampa Tarpons	552	493	78	16	5	9	48	254	7	37	13	.158	.243	.266	.508	.108	.295	46	9	.231	35	-41	+2	+0	+6	+16	-1.7
2025	20	A	Tampa Tarpons	465	410	61	15	1	6	50	190	4	34	10	.149	.248	.234	.482	.085	.256	41	11	.222	28	-38	+3	+0	+5	+13	-1.7
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	21	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	64	59	9	1	1	0	3	30	2	7	1	.153	.219	.203	.422	.051	.310	47	5	.196	8	-7	+1	+0	+1	+2	-0.3
ROS	21	MLB	NYY	256	228	37	7	2	4	23	109	3	12	3	.162	.248	.263	.511	.101	.286	43	9	.236	39	-18	+1	+0	+3	+7	-0.7
TOT	21	MLB	NYY	320	287	46	8	3	4	26	139	5	19	4	.160	.242	.251	.493	.091	.290	43	8	.228	33	-24	+2	+0	+3	+9	-1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	22	MLB 11%	NYY	534	470	87	17	4	10	52	186	7	23	6	.185	.276	.302	.578	.117	.272	35	10	.262	59	-25	+2	+0	+6	+15	-0.2
2028	23	MLB 28%	NYY	578	508	97	19	4	12	58	193	7	24	6	.191	.283	.315	.598	.124	.274	33	10	.273	67	-22	+2	+0	+6	+16	0.3
2029	24	MLB 45%	NYY	607	532	104	20	4	14	62	198	8	23	6	.195	.289	.327	.616	.132	.276	33	10	.279	72	-19	+2	+0	+7	+17	0.7
2030	25	MLB 60%	NYY	623	545	108	21	4	15	65	200	8	23	5	.198	.293	.334	.627	.136	.277	32	10	.283	75	-18	+3	+0	+7	+18	1.0
2031	26	MLB 78%	NYY	630	550	109	21	4	15	67	202	8	22	5	.198	.294	.333	.627	.135	.278	32	11	.285	76	-17	+2	+0	+7	+18	1.0
2032	27	MLB 92%	NYY	630	550	109	21	4	15	67	203	8	20	5	.198	.294	.333	.627	.135	.277	32	11	.285	76	-17	+2	+0	+7	+18	1.0
2033	28	MLB	NYY	625	545	107	20	4	15	67	203	8	19	4	.196	.294	.330	.624	.134	.277	32	11	.284	76	-17	+2	-1	+7	+18	0.9
2034	29	MLB	NYY	615	535	104	20	4	14	67	201	8	17	3	.194	.293	.325	.619	.131	.276	33	11	.282	74	-18	+2	-1	+7	+17	0.7
2035	30	MLB	NYY	605	526	101	19	4	14	66	200	8	15	3	.192	.292	.323	.615	.131	.274	33	11	.279	72	-19	+2	-2	+6	+17	0.4
2036	31	MLB	NYY	591	515	97	19	3	13	64	198	7	12	2	.188	.287	.313	.599	.124	.272	34	11	.275	69	-21	+2	-3	+6	+17	0.1
2037	32	MLB	NYY	572	498	92	17	3	12	62	194	7	10	1	.185	.284	.303	.587	.118	.271	34	11	.271	65	-22	+2	-4	+6	+16	-0.2
2038	33	MLB	NYY	542	473	86	16	3	11	58	188	6	9	0	.182	.279	.298	.577	.116	.269	35	11	.265	61	-24	+2	-4	+6	+15	-0.5
2039	34	MLB	NYY	495	433	76	14	3	9	53	176	6	7	0	.176	.274	.284	.558	.109	.267	36	11	.259	56	-24	+1	-5	+5	+14	-0.9
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			9190	8040	1484	286	59	192	964	3209	115	334	80	.185	.281	.306	.588	.122	.276	35	10	.268	64	-379	+35	-20	+98	+260	-0.5
/ 162G	—			650	569	105	20	4	14	68	227	8	24	6	.185	.281	.308	.588	.123	.275	35	10	.268	64	-27	+2	-1	+7	+18	-0.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	140	108	21	6	2	3	28	46	4	10	2	.194	.379	.370	.749	.176	.305	33	20	.348	124	+4	+1	—	—	+4	0.9
2023	18	ROK	FCL Yankees	130	101	27	2	2	6	27	29	1	17	6	.267	.426	.505	.931	.238	.313	22	21	.410	172	+11	+1	—	—	+4	1.6
2024	19	A	Tampa Tarpons	552	473	110	21	8	13	68	171	7	37	13	.233	.338	.393	.731	.161	.331	31	12	.328	109	+6	+2	—	—	+16	2.4
2025	20	A	Tampa Tarpons	465	394	82	19	1	7	65	134	4	34	10	.208	.325	.315	.640	.107	.295	29	14	.298	86	-7	+3	—	—	+13	0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Roderick Arias (OGILVIE)	21	25	30	60	55	.162/.252/.263	.101	.282	5	11	42%	10%	42	-1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Frankeny Fernandez 2017 · A	20	37	38→40	54→60	42	.177/.252/.256	.078	.282	5	19	36%	8%	39	-2.5	.189/.255/.265	.076	.277	5	11	31%	7%	42	-2.3	.172/.238/.215	.043	.239	3	6	27%	7%	20	-1.1
✕Hayden Cantrelle 2022 · AA	23	35	41→45	54→55	54	.169/.297/.268	.099	.266	8	23	35%	14%	64	-0.8	.189/.306/.297	.108	.297	8	20	34%	13%	74	-0.1	.191/.310/.302	.111	.299	9	21	34%	12%	74	-0.0
✕Viandel Pena 2023 · A	22	38→39	39→40	54→55	39	.183/.242/.268	.085	.293	6	17	38%	7%	37	-2.6	.194/.255/.268	.074	.293	4	18	32%	8%	42	-2.3	.193/.253/.263	.070	.279	3	19	30%	7%	36	-1.4
✕GJ Hill 2022 · A	21	37→29	40→45	57→55	29	.162/.223/.252	.090	.342	8	21	52%	6%	25	-3.5	.173/.240/.282	.109	.332	12	15	48%	7%	41	-2.3	.151/.222/.285	.134	.237	18	19	43%	7%	33	-1.1
✕Luis Alexander Basabe 2018 · A	21	40→41	41→45	53→50	38	.196/.247/.297	.102	.286	8	15	34%	6%	46	-2.0	.197/.259/.301	.104	.308	10	14	37%	7%	53	-1.5	.189/.259/.295	.106	.303	11	14	39%	8%	49	-1.0
✕Emmanuel Morel 2017 · A	20	40	34→30	50→55	45	.186/.262/.242	.056	.286	2	15	33%	9%	39	-2.5	.194/.260/.258	.064	.316	2	14	36%	7%	42	-2.3	.183/.249/.232	.049	.297	0	21	35%	6%	27	-0.8
✕Christian Cairo 2022 · A	21	39→47	40	52→60	45	.186/.279/.272	.086	.285	7	15	34%	9%	56	-1.3	.195/.294/.278	.083	.290	6	17	31%	11%	63	-0.8	.215/.301/.289	.073	.310	4	35	29%	9%	66	-0.3
✕Jamari Baylor 2023 · A	22	40	42→45	50→55	41	.172/.280/.276	.105	.337	10	18	46%	10%	58	-1.2	.187/.287/.297	.110	.339	11	16	43%	10%	66	-0.6	.170/.275/.273	.103	.306	12	18	43%	10%	53	-0.5
✕Reidy Mercado 2022 · A	21	42	37→30	56→60	41	.201/.257/.271	.070	.286	4	23	30%	6%	43	-2.2	.189/.240/.243	.054	.305	2	20	36%	6%	29	-3.2	.170/.217/.204	.034	.277	1	31	37%	5%	6	-1.2
✕Nerwilian Cedeño 2023 · A	21	42→34	43→45	51→50	44	.203/.280/.321	.117	.309	10	15	35%	9%	67	-0.5	.191/.255/.298	.107	.283	10	11	34%	7%	51	-1.7	.179/.237/.275	.096	.257	9	10	33%	6%	35	-1.5
✕Isaiah Greene 2023 · A	21	44→40	37→40	56→55	51	.199/.298/.275	.076	.314	4	19	34%	12%	64	-0.8	.186/.271/.271	.085	.309	6	17	37%	10%	51	-1.7	.146/.227/.226	.080	.251	5	17	40%	9%	18	-1.0
✕Brenny Escanio 2023 · A	20	37→36	41→40	51→55	46	.181/.269/.282	.101	.270	8	16	33%	10%	54	-1.4	.180/.256/.247	.067	.291	4	15	36%	9%	38	-2.6	.167/.244/.223	.056	.274	3	17	37%	9%	24	-1.9
✕Ismael Alcantara 2021 · A	22	42→30	38→45	56→50	41	.197/.266/.279	.082	.311	5	16	36%	8%	50	-1.7	.214/.271/.343	.129	.318	13	13	35%	6%	69	-0.4	.203/.261/.318	.115	.298	12	16	35%	6%	54	-0.8
✕Junior Perez 2022 · A	21	38	44→45	53→55	36	.179/.246/.295	.117	.318	11	16	44%	8%	46	-2.0	.184/.257/.299	.115	.319	12	23	42%	8%	53	-1.5	.172/.245/.284	.112	.290	12	29	42%	8%	41	-1.8
✕Yonki Hernandez 2012 · A	21	41	36→40	53→55	47	.189/.286/.258	.068	.280	3	16	30%	9%	55	-1.4	.196/.264/.269	.073	.314	4	18	36%	7%	46	-2.0	.179/.228/.215	.036	.302	3	27	40%	6%	13	-1.0
✕Roberto Reyes 2010 · A	21	38	38→40	55	40	.180/.254/.262	.082	.298	5	14	39%	8%	41	-2.3	.193/.254/.274	.081	.301	5	9	35%	7%	43	-2.2	.183/.238/.251	.069	.264	5	2	31%	6%	29	-1.1
✕Chris Torres 2019 · A	21	46→39	37→30	51→55	43	.209/.275/.282	.073	.326	4	11	35%	8%	54	-1.4	.197/.278/.267	.070	.314	4	13	34%	10%	53	-1.5	.178/.267/.238	.059	.283	3	16	34%	11%	37	-2.2
✕Terry Serrano 2007 · A	20	39	35→30	48→55	46	.185/.261/.242	.057	.273	2	15	31%	9%	39	-2.5	.196/.268/.256	.060	.273	3	15	26%	8%	45	-2.1	.195/.275/.253	.057	.274	2	17	27%	9%	45	-0.8
✕D'Shawn Knowles 2022 · A	21	40→46	40	59→55	33	.193/.233/.288	.096	.311	7	21	39%	5%	38	-2.6	.203/.255/.278	.075	.321	4	18	35%	6%	44	-2.1	.201/.259/.267	.066	.314	3	20	34%	7%	40	-1.5
✕Ricardo Méndez 2021 · A	21	43	39→45	54→50	40	.206/.263/.293	.087	.303	7	13	33%	6%	52	-1.6	.215/.257/.315	.100	.316	7	12	32%	5%	54	-1.4	.210/.249/.305	.095	.301	6	14	31%	5%	45	-1.2

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)