Roderick Arias — OGILVIE

Roderick Arias3B Hudson Valley Renegades

Age 21 S/R 6'0" / 178 lbs A+ HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION542 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%40

BB%10

BABIP314

ISO105

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	140	108	21	6	2	3	28	46	4	10	2	194	379	370	749	176	305	33	20	348	122	+4	+1	—	—	+3	0.8
2023	18	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	130	101	27	2	2	6	27	29	1	17	6	267	426	505	931	238	313	22	21	410	163	+10	+1	—	—	+3	1.4
2024	19	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	552	473	110	21	8	13	68	171	7	37	13	233	338	393	731	161	331	31	12	328	108	+5	+2	—	—	+12	2.0
2025	20	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	465	394	82	19	1	7	65	134	4	34	10	208	325	315	640	107	295	29	14	298	88	-7	+3	—	—	+10	0.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	140	118	13	3	1	2	18	67	4	10	2	110	250	203	453	93	236	48	13	215	32	-11	+1	—	—	+3	-0.7
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	130	111	19	1	2	3	17	44	1	17	6	171	287	297	584	126	243	34	13	266	66	-5	+1	—	—	+3	-0.1
2024	19	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	552	493	79	16	5	9	48	253	7	37	13	160	245	268	512	108	292	46	9	233	44	-37	+2	—	—	+12	-2.3
2025	20	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	465	410	60	15	1	6	50	190	4	34	10	146	246	232	477	85	249	41	11	222	36	-35	+3	—	—	+10	-2.3
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	140	118	13	3	1	2	18	67	4	10	2	110	250	203	453	93	224	48	13	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	—	140	108	21	6	2	3	28	46	4	10	2	194	379	370	749	176	305	33	20	348	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	130	111	19	1	2	3	17	44	1	17	6	171	287	297	584	126	246	34	13	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	—	130	101	27	2	2	6	27	29	1	17	6	267	426	505	931	238	313	22	21	410	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	552	493	79	16	5	9	48	253	7	37	13	160	245	268	512	108	298	46	9	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	—	552	473	110	21	8	13	68	171	7	37	13	233	338	393	731	161	331	31	12	328	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	465	410	60	15	1	6	50	190	4	34	10	146	246	232	477	85	251	41	11	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	—	465	394	82	19	1	7	65	134	4	34	10	208	325	315	640	107	295	29	14	298	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	140	117	13	3	1	2	18	67	4	10	2	111	250	205	455	94	236	48	13	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	130	111	19	1	2	3	17	44	1	17	6	171	287	297	584	126	243	34	13	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	552	492	79	16	5	9	48	253	7	37	13	161	245	268	513	108	292	46	9	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	465	408	60	15	1	6	50	190	4	34	10	147	246	233	479	86	249	41	11	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	130	111	19	1	2	3	17	44	1	17	6	171	287	297	584	126	243	34	13	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	552	492	79	16	5	9	48	253	7	37	13	161	245	268	513	108	292	46	9	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	465	408	60	15	1	6	50	190	4	34	10	147	246	233	479	86	249	41	11	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	NYY	—	542	488	104	20	3	12	35	213	12	37	14	213	282	340	622	127	341	39	6	270	69	-20	+2	+0	+2	+12	-0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ RAW	NYY	—	395	340	92	18	2	12	40	116	9	29	10	271	362	441	804	171	367	29	10	355	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	21	AA RAW	NYY	—	147	131	33	8	1	4	12	47	3	8	4	252	329	420	749	168	358	32	8	333	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	21	A+ MLE	NYY	0%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	111	200	111	311		312	40	10	265	65	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	21	A+ MLE	NYY	—	552	497	105	20	3	12	36	217	12	38	14	211	281	336	617	125	338	39	7	270	69	-21	+2	+0	+2	+12	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	NYY	35%	534	480	97	19	3	12	41	199	8	23	8	202	276	329	605	127	309	37	8	271	70	-19	+1	+0	+2	+12	-0.5
2028	23	MLB MLE	NYY	49%	578	519	108	21	3	14	46	206	8	25	9	208	283	341	624	133	308	36	8	280	76	-17	+1	+0	+2	+13	-0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	NYY	53%	607	544	115	22	3	16	49	211	9	26	9	211	287	351	638	140	308	35	8	286	80	-14	+2	+0	+2	+13	0.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	623	558	119	23	3	17	51	213	9	27	10	213	290	357	646	143	307	34	8	290	82	-13	+1	+0	+2	+13	0.4
2031	26	MLB MLE	NYY	56%	630	564	120	23	3	17	52	215	9	27	10	213	290	355	644	142	307	34	8	291	83	-13	+1	+0	+2	+14	0.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	630	563	120	23	3	17	53	216	9	27	10	213	291	355	646	142	307	34	8	291	83	-13	+1	+0	+2	+14	0.5
2033	28	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	625	558	119	23	3	17	53	215	9	25	9	213	292	357	649	143	307	34	8	290	82	-13	+1	-1	+2	+14	0.4
2034	29	MLB MLE	NYY	58%	615	549	115	22	3	16	52	213	9	23	8	209	289	348	636	138	306	35	8	288	81	-14	+1	-1	+2	+13	0.2
2035	30	MLB MLE	NYY	60%	605	539	113	21	3	16	52	211	9	21	7	210	290	349	639	139	305	35	9	286	80	-15	+1	-2	+2	+13	-0.0
2036	31	MLB MLE	NYY	62%	591	528	110	21	3	15	50	208	8	18	6	208	287	345	631	136	303	35	8	282	77	-16	+1	-3	+2	+13	-0.3
2037	32	MLB MLE	NYY	63%	572	510	103	19	2	14	49	203	8	14	5	202	282	329	612	127	300	35	9	277	73	-18	+1	-4	+2	+12	-0.6
2027	22	MLB CTX	NYY	35%	185	166	34	7	1	4	14	69	3	8	3	205	279	331	610	127	311	37	8	264	70	-7	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	NYY	49%	281	253	52	10	1	7	22	100	4	12	4	206	280	336	616	130	310	36	8	274	76	-8	+1	+0	+1	+6	-0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	NYY	53%	320	286	62	12	2	9	26	111	5	14	5	217	293	367	661	150	310	35	8	280	80	-8	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	341	305	67	13	2	10	28	117	5	15	5	220	296	374	670	154	310	34	8	284	82	-7	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	NYY	56%	351	314	68	13	2	10	29	120	5	15	5	217	293	366	659	150	310	34	8	285	83	-7	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.3
2032	27	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	347	310	67	13	2	10	29	119	5	15	5	216	294	368	661	152	310	34	8	285	83	-7	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	342	305	67	13	2	10	29	118	5	14	5	220	298	374	672	154	309	35	8	284	82	-7	+1	-0	+1	+7	0.2
2034	29	MLB CTX	NYY	58%	356	318	68	13	2	10	30	123	5	13	5	214	292	362	653	148	309	35	8	282	81	-8	+1	-1	+1	+8	0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	NYY	60%	364	325	69	13	2	10	31	127	5	12	4	212	291	357	648	145	307	35	9	280	80	-9	+1	-1	+1	+8	-0.0
2036	31	MLB CTX	NYY	62%	365	326	69	13	2	10	31	128	5	11	4	212	290	356	646	144	305	35	8	276	77	-10	+1	-2	+1	+8	-0.2
2037	32	MLB CTX	NYY	63%	359	320	64	12	1	9	31	128	5	9	3	200	281	328	609	128	302	36	9	271	73	-11	+1	-2	+1	+8	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3611	3228	687	132	19	99	300	1260	52	138	48	213	290	357	648	145	311	35	8	279	73	-89	+8	-6	+13	+78	0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	581	124	24	3	18	54	227	9	25	9	213	290	358	648	145	312	35	8	279	73	-16	+2	-1	+2	+14	0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	7907	7053	1411	272	41	191	682	2868	111	355	122	200	281	331	612	131	303	36	9	276	73	-165	+15	-10	+24	+143	0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	580	116	22	3	16	56	236	9	29	10	200	281	331	612	131	302	36	9	276	73	-16	+1	-1	+2	+14	0.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Rougned Odorlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,424 PA	6.7	4,424	178	70	230	288	422	+16	+32	15.2	15.0
/162	664	27	11	+2.4	+4.9	2.3	pk7: 15
#2Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	4.7	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
/162	664	19	34	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
#3Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#4Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#5Leonys Martinlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,784 PA	4.2	2,784	58	126	243	301	366	+10	+53	10.7	10.8
/162	664	14	30	+2.4	+12.6	2.5	pk7: 11
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	5.4	3,610	93	138	210	285	348	+39	+18	5.6	5.1
/162	664	17	25	+7.1	+3.3	1.0	pk7: 5
#6Everth Cabreralast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,059 PA	3.1	2,059	12	136	247	316	328	+22	-1	5.1	5.1
/162	664	4	44	+7.1	-0.5	1.6	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Roderick Arias (OGILVIE)	21	25	30	60	55	194/269/309	115	312	6	18	39%	8%	65	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Hayden Cantrelle 2022 · AA	23	34	41→40	54→60	55	164/295/260	96	258	8	24	35%	14%	66	-1.1	190/306/293	103	293	8	20	33%	12%	76	-0.4	190/308/293	103	292	8	21	33%	12%	74	-0.3
✕Frankeny Fernandez 2017 · A	20	36	38→40	53→60	42	174/248/255	81	275	5	19	36%	8%	45	-2.7	193/258/268	75	281	5	10	31%	7%	51	-2.3	172/238/215	43	239	3	6	27%	7%	30	-1.1
✕Viandel Pena 2023 · A	22	38→41	39→40	55	40	182/245/268	86	296	6	18	38%	8%	45	-2.7	201/264/277	76	304	4	18	32%	8%	55	-2.0	203/251/291	87	297	6	20	32%	6%	49	-0.8
✕Reidy Mercado 2022 · A	21	42	37→30	56→60	39	198/253/268	70	293	4	21	32%	6%	48	-2.5	188/237/241	53	306	2	20	37%	6%	36	-3.4	169/216/203	34	277	1	31	37%	5%	16	-1.3
✕Christian Cairo 2022 · A	21	40→46	40	53→60	46	188/283/278	90	291	7	16	35%	10%	63	-1.3	193/292/274	81	290	6	18	32%	11%	66	-1.1	205/292/276	72	294	4	31	28%	9%	64	-0.8
✕Luis Alexander Basabe 2018 · A	21	40→43	41→45	54→50	38	196/250/295	99	290	8	15	34%	6%	53	-2.1	202/265/306	104	313	9	14	36%	8%	61	-1.5	196/266/304	108	307	10	14	37%	8%	59	-0.9
✕Brainer Bonaci 2023 · A	21	43→44	40→45	55→50	50	207/291/305	98	286	7	16	28%	10%	72	-0.7	224/282/341	117	311	12	11	30%	7%	76	-0.4	229/272/354	124	311	15	8	31%	6%	72	-0.4
✕Brenny Escanio 2023 · A	20	37→36	41→40	52→55	47	181/270/284	103	266	8	16	33%	10%	60	-1.6	181/257/248	67	296	3	15	36%	9%	46	-2.6	169/248/225	55	281	3	17	37%	9%	35	-1.8
✕GJ Hill 2022 · A	21	37→28	39→50	57→55	29	158/222/244	86	347	7	21	53%	6%	32	-3.7	174/243/284	110	332	12	15	48%	7%	49	-2.4	173/234/327	154	248	20	28	38%	6%	53	-1.1
✕Emmanuel Morel 2017 · A	20	40	34→30	50→55	44	183/259/238	55	287	2	15	34%	9%	44	-2.8	196/261/262	66	318	2	13	36%	7%	50	-2.3	183/249/232	49	297	0	21	35%	6%	36	-0.8
✕Nerwilian Cedeño 2023 · A	21	42→32	43→45	51→50	44	202/279/319	116	307	10	15	35%	9%	71	-0.8	189/252/294	105	285	10	11	35%	7%	55	-2.0	175/234/271	96	258	9	10	34%	6%	40	-1.6
✕Hoy Park 2017 · A	21	40→49	38→45	59→55	46	192/267/282	90	275	4	17	30%	8%	57	-1.8	216/291/301	85	288	6	17	25%	9%	70	-0.8	228/317/324	96	297	8	17	24%	11%	83	+0.0
✕Yonki Hernandez 2012 · A	21	41	36→40	53→55	47	189/286/258	68	278	3	17	30%	9%	60	-1.6	197/263/272	75	318	4	18	36%	7%	53	-2.1	179/228/215	36	302	3	27	40%	6%	23	-1.0
✕Isaiah Greene 2023 · A	21	44→41	38→40	57→55	51	197/299/276	79	311	4	20	34%	12%	69	-0.9	185/268/271	86	315	6	17	39%	10%	55	-1.9	139/221/218	78	251	5	17	43%	9%	23	-1.1
✕C.J. Beatty 2010 · A	21	40	42→45	52→40	41	198/253/297	98	278	9	9	31%	7%	55	-2.0	209/270/324	115	297	9	5	31%	7%	68	-1.0	202/267/332	130	282	11	2	30%	8%	65	-0.7
✕Dalton Pompey 2013 · A	20	40→50	40→45	55	44	197/265/289	92	278	8	16	30%	8%	58	-1.7	238/299/342	104	319	7	24	25%	8%	82	+0.0	258/316/357	98	327	7	29	22%	7%	89	+0.4
✕Terry Serrano 2007 · A	20	39	35→30	49→55	46	184/261/240	56	270	2	16	30%	9%	45	-2.7	196/268/257	61	275	3	15	27%	8%	51	-2.2	193/272/251	58	274	2	17	28%	9%	50	-1.0
✕Rudy Martin Jr. 2017 · A	21	44	38→45	58→65	42	203/276/285	82	317	4	20	34%	8%	61	-1.5	195/258/287	92	323	7	29	39%	7%	55	-2.0	229/304/333	104	308	11	52	28%	9%	79	-0.1
✕Tucker Mitchell 2023 · A	22	38	43→45	51→45	35	181/259/287	106	307	11	11	42%	7%	57	-1.8	200/265/308	108	290	13	7	34%	6%	63	-1.4	190/248/282	93	268	12	5	33%	5%	49	-1.0
✕Jose Curpa 2022 · A	22	40	36→30	58→55	46	185/273/254	70	286	2	24	33%	10%	54	-2.0	204/289/287	83	310	5	17	32%	9%	68	-1.0	191/292/252	60	291	4	23	31%	10%	59	-0.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps