David Smith2B
Lakeland Flying Tigers
Age 25
S/R
5'10" / 195 lbs
A
HR +5%H +3%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.5 · 2028
wRC+†78
AVG/OBP/SLG.208 / .305 / .313
PA142
HR2
K%27
BB%11
MLB%0%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
35→35
PWR
32→32
SPD
58→58
EYE
67→67
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2028
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.5M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | — | — | — |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | — | — | — |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $3M | $-4M | -$7M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 66 | 54 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 3 | 4 | 0 | .167 | .297 | .222 | .519 | .056 | .235 | 30 | 11 | .240 | 42 | -4 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 414 | 337 | 52 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 59 | 130 | 12 | 29 | 7 | .154 | .301 | .214 | .515 | .059 | .238 | 31 | 14 | .252 | 51 | -23 | +3 | +0 | +1 | +12 | -0.7 |
| 2025 | 24 | A | 2 teams | 190 | 165 | 29 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 47 | 3 | 13 | 2 | .176 | .273 | .230 | .503 | .055 | .227 | 25 | 10 | .235 | 38 | -13 | +2 | +0 | +1 | +5 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | DET | 142 | 123 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 39 | 3 | 3 | 1 | .211 | .312 | .317 | .629 | .106 | .281 | 27 | 11 | .287 | 78 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +4 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB 10% | DET | 207 | 179 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 55 | 4 | 5 | 1 | .212 | .312 | .330 | .642 | .117 | .283 | 27 | 11 | .293 | 83 | -4 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +6 | 0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB 25% | DET | 275 | 239 | 51 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 73 | 5 | 6 | 1 | .213 | .311 | .326 | .638 | .113 | .284 | 27 | 11 | .296 | 84 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +8 | 0.5 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB 36% | DET | 321 | 279 | 60 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 34 | 85 | 5 | 7 | 1 | .215 | .311 | .330 | .641 | .115 | .284 | 26 | 11 | .296 | 85 | -6 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +9 | 0.5 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB 46% | DET | 344 | 299 | 64 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 36 | 92 | 6 | 7 | 1 | .214 | .311 | .331 | .642 | .117 | .284 | 27 | 10 | .295 | 84 | -6 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +10 | 0.4 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB 55% | DET | 358 | 311 | 66 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 38 | 97 | 6 | 7 | 1 | .212 | .310 | .328 | .638 | .116 | .282 | 27 | 11 | .291 | 81 | -8 | +1 | -2 | +1 | +10 | 0.3 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB 66% | DET | 353 | 307 | 63 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 37 | 97 | 6 | 7 | 1 | .205 | .303 | .309 | .612 | .104 | .281 | 27 | 10 | .288 | 78 | -9 | +1 | -3 | +1 | +10 | 0.1 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB 75% | DET | 341 | 297 | 62 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 36 | 95 | 5 | 6 | 0 | .209 | .305 | .316 | .621 | .108 | .279 | 28 | 11 | .283 | 75 | -10 | +1 | -4 | +1 | +10 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB 92% | DET | 316 | 275 | 56 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 33 | 90 | 5 | 5 | 0 | .204 | .300 | .305 | .606 | .102 | .278 | 28 | 10 | .278 | 71 | -10 | +1 | -4 | +1 | +9 | -0.4 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | DET | 274 | 240 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 81 | 4 | 5 | 0 | .196 | .290 | .292 | .582 | .096 | .276 | 30 | 10 | .272 | 66 | -11 | +1 | -5 | +1 | +8 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3601 | 3105 | 623 | 116 | 12 | 57 | 393 | 1001 | 67 | 104 | 16 | .201 | .304 | .301 | .605 | .100 | .273 | 28 | 11 | .280 | 73 | -112 | +14 | -20 | +13 | +102 | -0.2 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 560 | 112 | 21 | 2 | 10 | 71 | 181 | 12 | 19 | 3 | .200 | .303 | .298 | .601 | .098 | .273 | 28 | 11 | .280 | 73 | -20 | +3 | -4 | +2 | +18 | -0.0 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 66 | 51 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 0 | .196 | .359 | .255 | .614 | .059 | .243 | 21 | 15 | .294 | 83 | -1 | +1 | — | — | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 414 | 313 | 62 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 83 | 94 | 12 | 29 | 7 | .198 | .385 | .291 | .676 | .093 | .267 | 23 | 20 | .323 | 105 | +3 | +3 | — | — | +12 | 1.8 |
| 2025 | 24 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 147 | 125 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 25 | 2 | 10 | 2 | .184 | .301 | .232 | .533 | .048 | .220 | 17 | 13 | .258 | 55 | -7 | +1 | — | — | +4 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 24 | ROK | FCL Tigers | 43 | 33 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | .303 | .439 | .394 | .833 | .091 | .346 | 19 | 16 | .368 | 140 | +2 | +1 | — | — | +1 | 0.4 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| David Smith (OGILVIE) | 25 | 35 | 32 | 58 | 67 | .208/.305/.313 | .106 | .281 | 2 | 3 | 27% | 11% | 78 | +0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Elih Marrero 2022 · A |
25 | 47 | 39→40 | 53→55 | 47 | .223/.288/.312 | .088 | .297 | 5 | 17 | 25% | 8% | 68 | -0.5 | .211/.284/.294 | .083 | .308 | 6 | 22 | 31% | 9% | 62 | -0.9 | .200/.275/.286 | .087 | .291 | 8 | 27 | 32% | 9% | 52 | -0.5 |
|
✕Drew Millas 2023 · AA |
25 | 44 | 40→45 | 50 | 50 | .212/.289/.303 | .091 | .285 | 7 | 11 | 27% | 10% | 66 | -0.6 | .238/.302/.356 | .118 | .293 | 11 | 14 | 21% | 8% | 85 | +0.7 | .252/.308/.379 | .127 | .291 | 12 | 17 | 17% | 7% | 90 | +0.6 |
|
✕J.T. Arruda 2023 · A |
25 | 42 | 40 | 55 | 45 | .202/.273/.300 | .097 | .294 | 7 | 17 | 32% | 9% | 58 | -1.2 | .204/.277/.294 | .090 | .295 | 7 | 20 | 30% | 9% | 59 | -1.1 | .199/.271/.284 | .086 | .280 | 7 | 23 | 29% | 8% | 51 | -1.1 |
|
✕Joe Sclafani 2014 · A |
24 | 47 | 41→40 | 52→50 | 52 | .225/.304/.328 | .103 | .277 | 7 | 14 | 20% | 9% | 79 | +0.3 | .252/.313/.330 | .078 | .305 | 4 | 11 | 17% | 8% | 82 | +0.5 | .277/.332/.337 | .060 | .330 | 2 | 10 | 16% | 7% | 87 | +0.5 |
|
✕Ripken Reyes 2022 · A |
25 | 50→46 | 37→40 | 53→50 | 46 | .232/.324/.313 | .081 | .298 | 4 | 13 | 22% | 6% | 85 | +0.7 | .214/.320/.292 | .078 | .263 | 5 | 14 | 19% | 8% | 79 | +0.3 | .202/.309/.284 | .082 | .241 | 5 | 16 | 17% | 7% | 69 | -0.3 |
|
●Trei Cruz 2023 · AA |
25 | 38→48 | 41→45 | 51→50 | 51 | .184/.279/.284 | .100 | .274 | 8 | 13 | 33% | 12% | 58 | -1.2 | .204/.284/.322 | .118 | .291 | 11 | 10 | 31% | 10% | 69 | -0.4 | .215/.296/.342 | .128 | .296 | 12 | 11 | 30% | 10% | 77 | +0.1 |
|
✕Hayden Cantrelle 2023 · AA |
24 | 38 | 42→45 | 55 | 53 | .177/.298/.290 | .113 | .287 | 9 | 22 | 37% | 13% | 69 | -0.4 | .198/.307/.300 | .102 | .308 | 8 | 21 | 34% | 11% | 75 | -0.0 | .196/.302/.282 | .086 | .311 | 7 | 27 | 35% | 11% | 64 | -0.4 |
|
✕Skyler Stromsmoe 2009 · A |
25 | 44 | 39→40 | 50 | 50 | .213/.289/.298 | .084 | .262 | 7 | 12 | 21% | 8% | 66 | -0.6 | .215/.275/.301 | .086 | .274 | 7 | 10 | 23% | 6% | 59 | -1.1 | .224/.295/.297 | .072 | .285 | 4 | 12 | 21% | 7% | 65 | -0.3 |
|
✕Arquímedes Gamboa 2023 · AAA |
25 | 42→43 | 42→40 | 53→50 | 47 | .203/.276/.304 | .102 | .285 | 9 | 12 | 31% | 9% | 61 | -1.0 | .206/.288/.308 | .102 | .305 | 9 | 15 | 32% | 10% | 68 | -0.5 | .196/.288/.293 | .097 | .294 | 9 | 17 | 33% | 11% | 61 | -0.6 |
|
✕Francisco Soriano 2012 · A |
25 | 43→45 | 40 | 53→50 | 49 | .207/.277/.306 | .099 | .263 | 6 | 15 | 23% | 8% | 62 | -0.9 | .197/.273/.276 | .079 | .272 | 4 | 13 | 26% | 9% | 53 | -1.5 | .180/.262/.239 | .059 | .261 | 1 | 13 | 28% | 9% | 36 | -1.4 |
|
✕Zeke DeVoss 2014 · A |
24 | 45 | 39→40 | 54→55 | 51 | .213/.314/.303 | .090 | .285 | 6 | 22 | 25% | 10% | 79 | +0.3 | .186/.287/.263 | .077 | .268 | 5 | 18 | 29% | 10% | 57 | -1.2 | .127/.240/.173 | .046 | .196 | 3 | 17 | 33% | 10% | 14 | -2.4 |
|
✕Arby Fields 2016 · A |
25 | 48 | 39→40 | 52→55 | 48 | .225/.300/.307 | .082 | .315 | 6 | 20 | 28% | 9% | 72 | -0.2 | .211/.296/.287 | .076 | .321 | 5 | 14 | 32% | 10% | 66 | -0.6 | .174/.284/.224 | .050 | .297 | 2 | 9 | 37% | 12% | 43 | -0.8 |
|
✕River Town 2023 · A |
24 | 41→38 | 45→40 | 55→50 | 46 | .206/.287/.332 | .126 | .261 | 12 | 15 | 25% | 8% | 74 | -0.1 | .217/.304/.312 | .095 | .269 | 8 | 15 | 21% | 9% | 76 | +0.1 | .215/.313/.285 | .071 | .263 | 6 | 15 | 19% | 10% | 71 | -0.1 |
|
✕Danny Muno 2013 · A |
24 | 49→51 | 41→45 | 54→50 | 52 | .233/.312/.336 | .103 | .298 | 8 | 17 | 23% | 10% | 85 | +0.7 | .233/.317/.342 | .109 | .297 | 10 | 13 | 23% | 10% | 89 | +0.9 | .228/.313/.330 | .102 | .289 | 10 | 11 | 23% | 10% | 81 | +0.3 |
|
✕Jack Dunn 2022 · A |
25 | 49→48 | 39→40 | 53→55 | 47 | .235/.298/.317 | .083 | .300 | 6 | 15 | 23% | 7% | 73 | -0.1 | .225/.305/.302 | .077 | .297 | 6 | 18 | 24% | 9% | 73 | -0.1 | .215/.308/.291 | .076 | .277 | 7 | 21 | 23% | 10% | 70 | -0.3 |
|
✕Tim Torres 2009 · A |
25 | 47→50 | 45 | 50→55 | 46 | .231/.291/.356 | .125 | .303 | 12 | 13 | 27% | 8% | 80 | +0.4 | .229/.290/.346 | .117 | .311 | 10 | 14 | 28% | 8% | 78 | +0.2 | .258/.326/.391 | .133 | .344 | 13 | 21 | 27% | 9% | 103 | +0.8 |
|
✕Andres Sosa 2023 · A |
25 | 39 | 42→40 | 52→45 | 46 | .191/.291/.300 | .109 | .275 | 9 | 9 | 31% | 9% | 69 | -0.4 | .196/.285/.288 | .092 | .287 | 7 | 7 | 32% | 8% | 63 | -0.9 | .183/.273/.260 | .077 | .276 | 6 | 4 | 33% | 7% | 47 | -0.7 |
|
✕Jeremy Arocho 2023 · A |
24 | 50→43 | 35→30 | 57→60 | 57 | .226/.328/.284 | .058 | .311 | 2 | 26 | 25% | 13% | 79 | +0.3 | .214/.313/.272 | .058 | .287 | 2 | 30 | 23% | 12% | 69 | -0.4 | .206/.307/.252 | .046 | .272 | 1 | 37 | 22% | 12% | 59 | -0.8 |
|
✕Jake Palomaki 2019 · A |
24 | 44 | 39→30 | 52→50 | 49 | .214/.282/.299 | .086 | .261 | 7 | 11 | 20% | 8% | 63 | -0.9 | .207/.278/.266 | .059 | .262 | 3 | 14 | 20% | 8% | 52 | -1.6 | .217/.289/.261 | .044 | .278 | 1 | 17 | 21% | 8% | 53 | -0.9 |
|
✕Daniel Lyons 2010 · A |
25 | 43→46 | 40→45 | 51→50 | 49 | .208/.290/.307 | .098 | .265 | 7 | 15 | 23% | 8% | 69 | -0.4 | .196/.281/.273 | .077 | .269 | 4 | 12 | 26% | 9% | 56 | -1.3 | .173/.270/.224 | .051 | .247 | 2 | 11 | 27% | 10% | 38 | -1.5 |