David Smith — OGILVIE

David Smith2B Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 25 S/R 5'10" / 195 lbs A HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 142 proj PA

wRC+†54

AVG/OBP/SLG.174 / .286 / .248

PA142

HR1

K%25

BB%12

ISO75

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 37 / POW 32

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT37

scouting grade only

POWER32

scouting grade only

EYE65

scouting grade only

SPEED58

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	22	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	66	55	10	0	0	1	6	21	3	4	0	182	297	236	533	55	265	32	9	236	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	66	51	10	0	0	1	10	14	3	4	0	196	359	255	614	59	243	21	15	294	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	414	341	52	8	2	2	55	126	12	29	7	152	292	205	497	53	229	30	13	243	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	414	313	62	14	3	3	83	94	12	29	7	198	385	291	676	93	267	23	20	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A	2 teams	—	190	164	28	3	0	2	20	47	3	13	2	171	273	226	498	55	220	25	11	237	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A	2 teams	—	190	158	33	3	0	2	26	33	3	13	2	209	332	266	597	57	246	17	14	283	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	25	MLB	DET	—	142	122	21	4	1	1	17	35	2	4	1	172	284	246	530	74	232	25	12	256	54	-7	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	DET	30%	207	178	33	6	1	3	24	51	3	5	1	185	293	281	574	96	239	25	12	267	62	-9	+1	+0	+1	+6	-0.2
2028	27	MLB	DET	42%	275	237	45	9	1	4	32	67	4	7	2	190	297	287	584	97	243	24	12	271	66	-11	+1	+0	+1	+8	-0.1
2027	26	MLB	DET	30%	62	54	10	2	0	1	7	15	1	2	0	185	290	278	568	93	235	24	11	251	50	-3	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.1
2028	27	MLB	DET	42%	114	98	18	3	0	2	13	28	2	3	1	184	292	276	568	92	239	25	11	255	54	-6	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	176	152	28	5	0	3	20	43	3	5	1	184	291	276	568	92	234	24	11	254	52	-9	+1	+0	+1	+5	-0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	561	103	18	0	11	74	159	11	18	4	184	291	275	566	91	233	24	11	254	52	-35	+2	+0	+2	+18	-1.2
Career	—			—	1294	1097	189	30	5	13	154	347	27	62	13	172	290	244	534	72	235	27	12	253	52	-70	+7	+0	+5	+37	-2.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	551	96	15	3	7	77	174	14	31	7	174	291	250	542	76	237	27	12	253	52	-35	+3	+0	+2	+18	-1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	22	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	66	51	10	0	0	1	10	14	3	4	0	196	359	255	614	59	243	21	15	294	83	-1	+1	—	—	+2	0.1
2024	23	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	414	313	62	14	3	3	83	94	12	29	7	198	385	291	676	93	267	23	20	323	105	+3	+3	—	—	+12	1.8
2025	24	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	147	125	23	3	0	1	19	25	2	10	2	184	301	232	533	48	220	17	13	258	55	-7	+1	—	—	+4	-0.2
2025	24	ROK	FCL Tigers	—	43	33	10	0	0	1	7	8	1	3	0	303	439	394	833	91	346	19	16	368	140	+2	+1	—	—	+1	0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#4Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	319	4	8	183	290	269	+1	+2	-0.3	-0.2
	/162	664	8	16	183	290	269	+2.4	+4.2	-0.6	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
David Smith (OGILVIE)	25	37	32	58	65	174/286/248	75	232	1	4	25%	12%	54	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Francisco Soriano 2012 · A	25	44→48	40	54→50	51	209/285/310	101	268	6	16	23%	9%	66	-0.6	192/270/268	76	271	3	13	28%	9%	50	-1.8	171/254/229	58	252	1	13	29%	9%	30	-1.6
✕Kawika Emsley-Pai 2014 · A	25	40	35→30	48→40	53	185/285/245	61	271	2	7	30%	12%	51	-1.7	209/291/299	90	290	8	7	28%	10%	66	-0.6	179/278/276	97	238	12	2	28%	11%	55	-0.4
✕Jake Palomaki 2019 · A	24	44	39→30	52→50	49	213/282/298	85	259	7	11	20%	8%	62	-0.9	205/275/262	57	263	2	14	21%	8%	50	-1.8	217/288/262	45	280	1	17	21%	8%	52	-0.9
✕Skyler Stromsmoe 2009 · A	25	45	39→40	50	50	214/292/295	81	263	7	12	21%	8%	66	-0.6	213/272/301	88	272	7	10	23%	6%	59	-1.1	215/283/289	74	275	5	12	22%	7%	58	-0.5
✕J.T. Arruda 2023 · A	25	43→41	40	56→55	45	203/276/302	99	303	7	17	33%	9%	60	-1.0	202/273/294	92	291	7	20	30%	8%	57	-1.2	205/267/297	93	281	9	23	29%	7%	52	-0.8
✕Robelys Reyes 2015 · A	25	45→46	35→40	51→55	45	208/254/271	63	253	2	13	18%	5%	42	-2.3	224/266/268	44	292	1	15	22%	5%	46	-2.0	230/270/261	31	297	0	17	22%	5%	43	-1.5
✕Stephen Perez 2016 · AA	25	41→47	36→30	50	46	196/258/263	67	261	3	13	25%	8%	43	-2.2	201/270/270	69	274	5	14	26%	8%	50	-1.8	195/270/253	58	268	5	15	27%	8%	44	-1.0
✕Tyler Friis 2021 · AA	25	44	40	47→50	51	212/281/303	91	257	7	12	20%	8%	63	-0.9	223/278/310	87	295	6	17	24%	7%	63	-0.9	232/278/291	59	306	0	30	23%	6%	56	-0.3
✕Zeke DeVoss 2014 · A	24	44	39→40	55	51	209/309/296	87	278	5	23	25%	10%	75	-0.0	186/284/261	75	268	5	17	29%	10%	56	-1.3	127/240/170	43	197	3	17	33%	10%	14	-2.5
✕Ian Parmley 2015 · A	25	46	35→30	55→50	52	217/286/277	60	266	3	18	19%	9%	58	-1.2	218/267/276	58	313	3	15	29%	6%	49	-1.8	239/273/297	58	348	2	17	31%	4%	52	-0.6
✕Matt Whatley 2021 · A	25	39→36	37→40	52→50	47	185/262/257	71	256	5	15	28%	8%	43	-2.2	191/254/274	83	276	8	10	32%	7%	44	-2.1	167/230/254	87	226	12	8	31%	6%	27	-1.2
✕Robi Estrada 2013 · A	24	44	37→40	51→50	48	211/270/287	76	266	4	12	22%	8%	53	-1.5	218/269/310	92	265	6	8	19%	7%	59	-1.1	215/262/305	90	262	8	9	21%	6%	51	-0.5
✕Arquímedes Gamboa 2023 · AAA	25	42→44	41→40	53→50	47	203/277/300	97	290	8	12	31%	9%	60	-1.0	208/289/309	101	313	9	15	33%	10%	68	-0.5	198/288/293	95	302	8	17	34%	11%	61	-0.6
✕Elih Marrero 2022 · A	25	47	38→40	53→55	47	222/288/308	86	296	5	19	25%	8%	66	-0.6	207/278/290	83	302	6	22	31%	8%	58	-1.2	194/266/277	83	281	8	27	32%	8%	47	-0.7
✕Tyler Stubblefield 2013 · A	25	42	38→45	51→50	47	200/279/278	78	260	5	12	24%	8%	56	-1.3	214/270/318	104	261	9	9	21%	6%	62	-0.9	211/252/327	117	243	9	5	17%	5%	52	-0.7
✕Adam Heisler 2013 · A	25	43→45	37→40	57→55	43	206/245/285	79	255	4	21	21%	5%	41	-2.3	218/280/310	92	291	6	17	25%	7%	63	-0.8	219/290/312	93	295	5	19	26%	8%	66	-0.3
✕Nick Vickerson 2014 · A	25	36	42→40	49→50	47	183/268/285	102	256	10	13	31%	9%	54	-1.4	203/302/300	97	289	8	11	29%	11%	72	-0.2	190/312/271	81	272	7	11	29%	13%	66	-0.4
✕Colt Sedbrook 2010 · AA	25	45→44	38→30	51→50	48	214/305/293	79	273	6	14	22%	8%	72	-0.2	205/298/278	73	263	5	12	22%	8%	66	-0.6	176/285/222	46	228	2	12	21%	8%	45	-1.2
✕Reece Hampton 2021 · A	25	45	39→40	51→50	43	215/271/305	90	294	5	11	27%	6%	58	-1.2	190/258/297	107	332	9	20	42%	8%	52	-1.6	106/192/212	105	199	11	39	49%	9%	1	-1.4
✕Stephen Wickens 2014 · A	25	47→44	37→40	51→55	51	221/300/301	80	269	4	14	18%	8%	71	-0.3	219/280/293	74	278	4	16	21%	7%	59	-1.1	224/278/281	57	285	2	20	21%	6%	53	-0.7