David Smith — OGILVIE

David Smith2B Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 26 S/R 5'10" / 195 lbs A HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 91 proj PA

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG.189 / .273 / .289

PA91

HR1

K%24

BB%9

ISO100

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	22	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	66	51	10	0	0	1	10	14	3	4	0	196	359	255	614	59	243	21	15	294	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	414	313	62	14	3	3	83	94	12	29	7	198	385	291	676	93	267	23	20	323	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	147	125	23	3	0	1	19	25	2	10	2	184	301	232	533	48	220	17	13	258	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	ROK	FCL Tigers	—	43	33	10	0	0	1	7	8	1	3	0	303	439	394	833	91	346	19	16	368	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	22	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	66	55	10	0	0	1	6	20	3	4	0	182	297	236	533	55	232	30	9	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	414	343	54	9	3	2	53	124	12	29	7	157	292	219	510	61	225	30	13	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	147	130	19	2	0	1	14	34	2	10	2	146	240	185	424	38	185	23	10	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	—	43	36	9	0	0	1	4	12	1	3	0	250	341	333	675	83	278	28	9	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	66	55	10	0	0	1	6	20	3	4	0	182	297	236	533	55	257	30	9	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	66	51	10	0	0	1	10	14	3	4	0	196	359	255	614	59	243	21	15	294	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	414	343	54	9	3	2	53	124	12	29	7	157	292	219	510	61	234	30	13	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	414	313	62	14	3	3	83	94	12	29	7	198	385	291	676	93	267	23	20	323	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A MLE	2 teams	—	190	167	28	2	0	2	17	46	3	13	2	168	257	216	472	48	213	24	9	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A RAW	2 teams	—	190	158	33	3	0	2	26	33	3	13	2	209	332	266	597	57	246	17	14	283	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	66	57	10	0	0	1	6	20	3	4	0	175	297	228	525	53	232	30	9	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	414	346	54	9	3	2	53	124	12	29	7	156	292	217	508	61	225	30	13	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A MLE	2 teams	—	190	168	28	2	0	2	17	46	3	13	2	167	257	214	471	48	206	24	9	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	23	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	414	346	54	9	3	2	53	124	12	29	7	156	292	217	508	61	225	30	13	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A MLE	2 teams	—	190	168	28	2	0	2	17	46	3	13	2	167	257	214	471	48	206	24	9	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	26	MLB MLE	DET	0%	240	213	41	8	1	4	22	57	3	5	1	191	275	291	567	100	240	24	9	261	62	-11	+1	+0	+1	+5	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	DET	26%	122	108	21	4	1	2	11	29	2	3	1	193	277	295	571	102	242	24	9	262	64	-5	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	DET	26%	31	28	5	1	0	0	3	7	0	1	0	189	274	288	562	99	238	23	10	258	64	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	31	28	5	1	0	0	3	7	0	1	0	179	258	214	472	36	238	23	10	258	49	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	105	21	0	0	63	147	0	21	0	179	258	215	473	36	239	23	10	258	49	-28	+4	+0	+2	+14	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	883	755	128	18	4	8	95	241	21	51	11	170	280	236	516	66	233	27	11	241	49	-9	+0	+0	+1	+5	-0.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	556	94	13	3	6	70	177	15	38	8	169	279	236	514	67	232	27	11	241	49	-29	+1	+0	+2	+14	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
David Smith (OGILVIE)	26	—	—	—	—	189/273/289	100	240	1	2	24%	9%	62	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nick Vickerson 2014 · A	25	37	42→40	49→50	48	187/274/289	103	259	10	13	30%	10%	63	-1.4	200/295/298	98	281	9	11	29%	10%	72	-0.7	182/296/265	82	256	7	11	28%	12%	63	-0.8
✕Kaden Polcovich 2024 · AA	25	39→41	45	54→55	47	198/281/321	123	266	12	16	29%	9%	72	-0.7	205/287/313	108	289	9	19	30%	8%	72	-0.7	185/278/277	92	268	6	27	30%	9%	59	-0.8
✕Grae Kessinger 2023 · AA	25	34→30	44→45	49→50	45	182/254/292	110	240	14	18	30%	8%	55	-1.9	210/285/321	111	280	12	12	27%	9%	73	-0.6	186/264/278	92	250	9	8	27%	8%	55	-0.8
✕Quincy McAfee 2024 · AA	26	38	46→45	46→45	46	196/281/327	130	253	13	9	27%	8%	74	-0.5	203/272/330	127	250	14	11	24%	6%	71	-0.8	170/237/280	109	197	14	12	22%	5%	43	-1.3
✕Camden Duzenack 2021 · AA	26	34→36	46→50	48→50	39	184/243/305	121	244	14	10	31%	6%	54	-2.0	209/255/340	131	279	14	10	30%	5%	65	-1.2	211/258/338	126	272	14	10	27%	5%	64	-0.6
✕Skyler Stromsmoe 2010 · A	26	45	41→40	50	47	217/284/313	97	267	8	9	22%	7%	71	-0.8	213/273/291	78	274	5	12	23%	6%	61	-1.5	217/286/286	68	275	4	12	21%	7%	63	-0.6
✕Chase Simpson 2017 · A	25	39→38	43→45	51→45	44	195/266/312	117	275	10	5	32%	8%	64	-1.3	196/254/310	114	290	11	7	34%	7%	59	-1.7	134/175/242	108	197	12	3	39%	4%	11	-1.2
✕Brady Policelli 2021 · A	26	40→38	43→45	51→50	42	200/264/314	115	271	10	13	29%	7%	63	-1.3	192/252/305	113	274	11	13	32%	7%	57	-1.8	159/215/267	108	222	11	18	33%	6%	32	-1.8
✕Jackson Cluff 2024 · AA	27	36→30	41→45	51→60	43	178/259/280	102	271	8	15	35%	8%	55	-2.0	185/267/304	119	276	12	25	35%	9%	63	-1.3	167/253/282	115	245	12	32	35%	9%	51	-1.2
✕Mike Salvatore 2023 · A	26	32	42→40	49→45	42	169/233/265	96	237	10	5	32%	7%	40	-3.0	193/263/284	91	262	8	8	27%	8%	56	-1.9	178/258/254	76	233	6	7	25%	9%	45	-1.0
✕Tommy Sacco Jr. 2024 · A	25	35→44	43→40	48→50	44	181/255/285	104	257	11	15	33%	9%	54	-2.0	193/260/284	91	265	9	16	28%	8%	55	-1.9	185/252/268	83	252	8	18	28%	8%	46	-1.8
✕Chris Roller 2023 · AA	26	38	39→45	50→55	41	184/249/269	85	263	6	14	31%	6%	47	-2.5	191/270/312	121	306	13	16	39%	8%	66	-1.1	174/262/298	124	289	14	19	41%	9%	58	-1.1
✕Jordan Tarsovich 2017 · AA	26	39	44→45	46→50	47	198/270/309	111	250	12	9	26%	8%	65	-1.2	199/269/291	92	266	7	12	26%	8%	60	-1.6	182/256/255	73	246	4	15	26%	8%	45	-1.8
✕Andrés Alvarez 2024 · AA	27	37→32	45	51→50	42	191/256/309	118	267	13	13	33%	7%	59	-1.6	214/278/326	112	303	11	11	31%	7%	71	-0.8	220/290/326	106	314	9	12	31%	8%	72	-0.3
✕Jose Lozada 2012 · A	26	42	41→45	43→45	40	208/258/312	105	270	8	7	26%	5%	60	-1.6	217/270/297	80	283	6	7	24%	5%	61	-1.5	235/284/270	35	312	2	12	24%	6%	57	-0.6
✕JJ Schwarz 2021 · A	25	38	40→45	48→30	43	189/253/279	90	264	9	6	31%	7%	51	-2.2	212/279/326	114	294	12	3	30%	8%	72	-0.7	205/275/317	113	280	13	1	30%	9%	66	-0.6
✕Francisco Soriano 2013 · A	26	43→47	38→40	51→50	49	205/276/289	84	267	4	15	24%	8%	61	-1.5	195/272/272	77	282	4	12	29%	9%	57	-1.8	159/252/224	64	241	2	10	31%	10%	36	-1.7
✕Seaver Whalen 2021 · A	26	40	40→45	48→50	40	195/263/286	90	264	8	6	28%	5%	57	-1.8	205/273/326	121	263	12	10	26%	4%	71	-0.8	170/246/302	132	208	14	10	25%	3%	55	-0.7
✕Trei Cruz 2024 · AA	26	37→47	43→45	48→50	49	185/271/294	109	262	10	10	31%	10%	62	-1.4	221/295/334	113	305	10	10	28%	9%	80	-0.2	229/304/336	107	310	9	10	27%	9%	81	-0.0
✕J.T. Arruda 2023 · A	25	42	40	56→55	47	200/275/295	95	290	7	17	31%	9%	63	-1.4	204/275/290	86	289	6	20	29%	8%	62	-1.4	207/270/292	85	284	7	22	28%	7%	58	-1.0