Trei Cruz
CF Toledo Mud Hens| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | AADET | 440 | .260/.346/.396 | 9 | 9 | 69 | — | .226/.281/.330 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA/AADET | 564 | .279/.416/.456 | 13 | 17 | 106 | — | .245/.344/.382 |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA/ADET | 442 | .255/.346/.350 | 4 | 5 | 62 | — | .225/.291/.300 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 29 | MLBDET | 16 | .224/.302/.326 | 0 | 0 | 82 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ22% MLB | 30 | MLBDET | 47 | .222/.299/.322 | 1 | 1 | 80 | -0.0 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 107 | 82 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 35 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 159 | 337 | 244 | 580 | 85 | 271 | 33 | 21 | 278 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 146 | 111 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 31 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 162 | 359 | 288 | 647 | 126 | 203 | 21 | 23 | 311 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 30 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 333 | 200 | 533 | 278 | 23 | 17 | 267 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 467 | 386 | 90 | 19 | 4 | 8 | 76 | 111 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 233 | 359 | 365 | 725 | 132 | 301 | 24 | 16 | 330 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | INTL | Leones de Ponce | — | 125 | 107 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 24 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 271 | 366 | 346 | 712 | 75 | 341 | 19 | 13 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 538 | 453 | 97 | 21 | 4 | 14 | 81 | 127 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 214 | 335 | 371 | 706 | 157 | 265 | 24 | 15 | 322 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | INTL | Puerto Rico | — | 87 | 80 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 287 | 345 | 412 | 757 | 125 | 324 | 13 | 8 | 339 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 440 | 384 | 100 | 23 | 1 | 9 | 49 | 112 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 260 | 346 | 396 | 741 | 135 | 341 | 25 | 11 | 331 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 241 | 190 | 54 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 48 | 55 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 284 | 429 | 458 | 886 | 174 | 364 | 23 | 20 | 394 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 323 | 262 | 72 | 22 | 2 | 7 | 54 | 66 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 275 | 406 | 454 | 860 | 179 | 339 | 20 | 17 | 383 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 423 | 365 | 94 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 48 | 91 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 258 | 345 | 353 | 699 | 96 | 325 | 22 | 11 | 314 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 19 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 368 | 267 | 635 | 67 | 273 | 21 | 21 | 310 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 107 | 88 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 49 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 125 | 260 | 193 | 453 | 68 | 253 | 46 | 15 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 146 | 122 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 43 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 131 | 269 | 238 | 507 | 107 | 168 | 29 | 15 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 30 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 192 | 300 | 192 | 492 | 262 | 30 | 13 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 467 | 411 | 77 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 51 | 148 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 187 | 277 | 294 | 571 | 107 | 259 | 32 | 11 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 538 | 482 | 85 | 19 | 3 | 10 | 53 | 164 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 176 | 261 | 290 | 551 | 114 | 243 | 30 | 10 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 440 | 403 | 91 | 19 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 136 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 226 | 281 | 330 | 611 | 104 | 309 | 31 | 7 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 241 | 205 | 52 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 33 | 61 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 254 | 357 | 395 | 752 | 141 | 332 | 25 | 14 | 341 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 323 | 280 | 67 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 36 | 78 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 239 | 334 | 371 | 706 | 132 | 302 | 24 | 11 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 423 | 380 | 86 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 109 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 226 | 290 | 303 | 592 | 76 | 291 | 26 | 8 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 19 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 316 | 250 | 566 | 62 | 228 | 26 | 16 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 253 | 210 | 27 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 38 | 92 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 129 | 265 | 219 | 484 | 90 | 212 | 36 | 15 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 253 | 193 | 31 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 55 | 66 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 161 | 349 | 269 | 619 | 109 | 228 | 26 | 22 | 297 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 622 | 546 | 101 | 21 | 3 | 9 | 69 | 195 | 0 | 20 | 5 | 185 | 276 | 284 | 560 | 99 | 264 | 31 | 11 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 622 | 518 | 124 | 25 | 5 | 8 | 97 | 142 | 0 | 20 | 5 | 239 | 359 | 353 | 713 | 114 | 309 | 23 | 16 | 325 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 625 | 560 | 100 | 22 | 4 | 12 | 62 | 191 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 179 | 263 | 296 | 559 | 118 | 246 | 31 | 10 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 625 | 533 | 120 | 26 | 5 | 15 | 88 | 138 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 225 | 337 | 377 | 714 | 152 | 276 | 22 | 14 | 324 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 440 | 403 | 91 | 19 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 136 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 226 | 281 | 330 | 611 | 104 | 318 | 31 | 7 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA RAW | Erie SeaWolves | — | 440 | 384 | 100 | 23 | 1 | 9 | 49 | 112 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 260 | 346 | 396 | 741 | 135 | 341 | 25 | 11 | 331 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 564 | 484 | 120 | 28 | 4 | 11 | 70 | 139 | 4 | 17 | 7 | 248 | 348 | 390 | 738 | 143 | 321 | 25 | 12 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 564 | 452 | 126 | 33 | 4 | 13 | 102 | 121 | 4 | 17 | 7 | 279 | 416 | 456 | 872 | 177 | 349 | 21 | 18 | 388 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 442 | 396 | 88 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 36 | 115 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 222 | 289 | 298 | 587 | 76 | 298 | 26 | 8 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 442 | 380 | 97 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 52 | 95 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 255 | 346 | 350 | 696 | 95 | 323 | 21 | 12 | 313 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 253 | 212 | 27 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 38 | 92 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 127 | 265 | 217 | 482 | 90 | 204 | 36 | 15 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 622 | 548 | 101 | 21 | 3 | 9 | 69 | 195 | 0 | 20 | 5 | 184 | 276 | 283 | 559 | 99 | 259 | 31 | 11 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 625 | 556 | 100 | 22 | 4 | 12 | 62 | 191 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 180 | 263 | 299 | 561 | 119 | 243 | 31 | 10 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 440 | 406 | 91 | 19 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 136 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 224 | 281 | 328 | 609 | 103 | 309 | 31 | 7 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 564 | 485 | 120 | 28 | 4 | 11 | 70 | 139 | 4 | 17 | 7 | 247 | 348 | 390 | 737 | 142 | 315 | 25 | 12 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 442 | 402 | 88 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 36 | 115 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 219 | 289 | 294 | 582 | 75 | 288 | 26 | 8 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 440 | 406 | 91 | 19 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 136 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 224 | 281 | 328 | 609 | 103 | 309 | 31 | 7 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 564 | 485 | 120 | 28 | 4 | 11 | 70 | 139 | 4 | 17 | 7 | 247 | 348 | 390 | 737 | 142 | 315 | 25 | 12 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 442 | 402 | 88 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 36 | 115 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 219 | 289 | 294 | 582 | 75 | 288 | 26 | 8 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | DET | 10% | 380 | 340 | 77 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 36 | 98 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 228 | 305 | 333 | 638 | 105 | 302 | 26 | 9 | 289 | 82 | -8 | -0 | -0 | +1 | +8 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | DET | 10% | 16 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 224 | 302 | 326 | 627 | 101 | 297 | 25 | 12 | 285 | 82 | -0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | DET | 22% | 212 | 189 | 43 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 55 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 226 | 302 | 329 | 632 | 103 | 300 | 26 | 9 | 287 | 80 | -5 | -0 | -2 | +1 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | DET | 22% | 47 | 43 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 222 | 299 | 322 | 621 | 100 | 295 | 26 | 9 | 282 | 80 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 47 | 43 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 233 | 298 | 349 | 647 | 116 | 300 | 26 | 9 | 282 | 68 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 595 | 139 | 28 | 0 | 14 | 55 | 166 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 234 | 298 | 351 | 650 | 118 | 301 | 26 | 8 | 282 | 68 | -15 | +3 | -7 | +2 | +14 | -0.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3313 | 2926 | 602 | 132 | 18 | 49 | 340 | 963 | 11 | 81 | 42 | 206 | 291 | 313 | 604 | 108 | 285 | 29 | 10 | 269 | 68 | -8 | -0 | -2 | +1 | +8 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 574 | 119 | 26 | 4 | 10 | 67 | 189 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 207 | 292 | 319 | 611 | 111 | 286 | 29 | 10 | 269 | 68 | -15 | -1 | -4 | +2 | +14 | -0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 423 PAwOBA .311 → .262 (−49)K% 21.5% → 25.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.51% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 7.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.24% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.996 | ×0.992 | 23.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.93% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.996 | ×0.992 | 5.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.73% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.996 | ×0.992 | 0.70% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.46% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 1.01% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .311 → .262; ISO .096 → .078; BABIP .325 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 19 PAwOBA .303 → .225 (−78)K% 21.1% → 28.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.05% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 28.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 21.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.940 | 13.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.940 | 15.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.940 | 7.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 22.0 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .303 → .225; ISO .067 → .052; BABIP .273 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAErie SeaWolves · 323 PAwOBA .376 → .313 (−63)K% 20.4% → 24.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.43% | ÷1.035 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.41% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 11.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.24% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 1.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.92% | ÷0.981 | ×0.970 | ×1.000 | ×0.978 | 20.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.22% | ÷1.075 | ×0.860 | ×1.000 | ×0.978 | 8.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.02% | ÷1.115 | ×0.950 | ×1.000 | ×0.978 | 0.85% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.056 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 2.58% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 96, 2B 115, 3B 123, K 107, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.
Result: wOBA .376 → .313; ISO .179 → .143; BABIP .339 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 241 PAwOBA .389 → .341 (−48)K% 22.8% → 25.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.82% | ÷1.073 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.50% | ÷0.988 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 13.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.93% | ÷0.993 | ×0.930 | ×0.989 | ×1.003 | 24.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.15% | ÷0.953 | ×0.830 | ×0.989 | ×1.003 | 7.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.48% | ÷0.905 | ×0.970 | ×0.989 | ×1.003 | 1.57% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.44% | ÷0.872 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 3.58% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 81, K 115, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .389 → .341; ISO .174 → .161; BABIP .364 → .332. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAErie SeaWolves · 440 PAwOBA .324 → .270 (−54)K% 25.5% → 30.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.45% | ÷1.009 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.91% | ÷1.086 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 6.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.23% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.63% | ÷0.992 | ×0.970 | ×0.982 | ×0.988 | 23.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.46% | ÷1.036 | ×0.860 | ×0.982 | ×0.988 | 6.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.37% | ÷0.945 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | ×0.988 | 0.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.31% | ÷0.941 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 2.71% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 89, K 102, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .324 → .270; ISO .135 → .111; BABIP .341 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAErie SeaWolves · 538 PAwOBA .314 → .248 (−66)K% 23.6% → 30.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.61% | ÷0.944 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.06% | ÷1.063 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 9.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.37% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.79% | ÷1.002 | ×0.970 | ×0.975 | ×0.998 | 16.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.44% | ÷0.924 | ×0.860 | ×0.975 | ×0.998 | 5.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.23% | ÷1.145 | ×0.950 | ×0.975 | ×0.998 | 0.99% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.29% | ÷1.055 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 3.17% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 85, 3B 129, K 89, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .314 → .248; ISO .157 → .122; BABIP .265 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 467 PAwOBA .325 → .257 (−67)K% 23.8% → 31.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.77% | ÷0.956 | ×1.270 | — | — | 31.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.06% | ÷1.024 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 11.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.45% | ÷1.031 | ×0.920 | ×0.978 | ×0.988 | 18.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.91% | ÷0.876 | ×0.810 | ×0.978 | ×0.988 | 6.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.45% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.978 | ×0.988 | 1.04% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.91% | ÷0.847 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 2.71% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 106, 2B 75, 3B 130, K 91, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .325 → .257; ISO .132 → .114; BABIP .301 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAErie SeaWolves · 30 PAwOBA .262 → .219 (−43)K% 23.3% → 28.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.33% | ÷0.995 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.67% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 11.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.78% | ÷1.042 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.012 | 26.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.042 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.926 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 108, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .262 → .219; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .278 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .