Griffin Herring
P
Hartford Yard Goats
+1.4
WAR
Age 23
LHP
6'2" / 196 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 2.4 · 2029
ERA4.20
FIP4.20
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.5%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%13.0%
IP119
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.4peak
2029
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 23 | 23 | 119 | 474 | 149 | 49 | 4 | 23.8% | 12.0% | 1.2% | 1.89 | 3.24 | +2.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 1 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 12.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | COL | 22 | 22 | 119 | 504 | 119 | 53 | 13 | 23.5% | 10.6% | 2.5% | 4.20 | 4.20 | +1.5 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | COL | — | — | 122 | 518 | 123 | 55 | 14 | 23.7% | 10.7% | 2.6% | 4.39 | 4.10 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | COL | 25 | 25 | 138 | 584 | 140 | 57 | 15 | 23.9% | 9.8% | 2.5% | 4.13 | 4.07 | +1.9 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | COL | 28 | 28 | 152 | 642 | 155 | 60 | 16 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 2.5% | 4.06 | 4.01 | +2.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | COL | 29 | 29 | 159 | 671 | 163 | 61 | 17 | 24.3% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 4.03 | 4.00 | +2.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | COL | 29 | 29 | 162 | 683 | 166 | 63 | 18 | 24.2% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 4.02 | 4.01 | +2.4 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | COL | 29 | 29 | 161 | 681 | 165 | 63 | 18 | 24.2% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 4.03 | 4.04 | +2.3 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | COL | 29 | 29 | 158 | 666 | 160 | 62 | 18 | 24.1% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 4.06 | 4.08 | +2.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | COL | 28 | 28 | 153 | 646 | 154 | 61 | 18 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.11 | 4.15 | +2.0 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | COL | 27 | 27 | 148 | 624 | 147 | 59 | 17 | 23.6% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 4.18 | 4.22 | +1.8 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | COL | 26 | 26 | 142 | 599 | 140 | 58 | 17 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 4.31 | +1.6 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | COL | 25 | 25 | 135 | 572 | 132 | 56 | 17 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.40 | +1.4 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | COL | 23 | 23 | 129 | 543 | 123 | 54 | 17 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.51 | +1.2 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | COL | 22 | 22 | 121 | 512 | 114 | 53 | 16 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.64 | +0.9 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | COL | 21 | 21 | 113 | 478 | 105 | 50 | 16 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.69 | 4.77 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 24 | 24 | 122 | 488 | 117 | 59 | 6 | 24.0% | 12.1% | 1.3% | 2.13 | 3.33 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 39 | 200 | 798 | 191 | 96 | 10 | 24.0% | 12.1% | 1.3% | 2.13 | 3.33 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Griffin Herring (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.20 | 23.5% | 10.6% | 2.5% | — | 4.02 | 24.1% | 14.7% | 449 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Santucci L 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.63 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 118 | 93 |
| A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.73 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 5.75 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.02 | 3.65 | 203 | 92 |
| Will Johnston L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.96 | 24.8% | 11.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 4.18 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 70 | +0.22 | 3.96 | 162 | 91 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 160 | 90 |
| Nick Zwack L 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.15 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 1.6% | .299 | 5.76 | 18.2% | 8.4% | 143 | +2.61 | 3.15 | 248 | 90 |
| Pete Hansen L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.18 | 20.1% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .283 | 3.80 | 17.8% | 10.1% | 266 | -0.38 | 3.75 | 378 | 90 |
| Greg Farone L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 2.9% | .301 | 3.20 | 24.3% | 17.7% | 12 | -1.10 | 3.20 | 117 | 90 |
| Will Dion L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.39 | 22.3% | 8.4% | 2.0% | .289 | 4.52 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 216 | +1.13 | 3.39 | 448 | 89 |
| Andrew Abbott L 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.36 | 26.0% | 10.9% | 2.0% | .336 | 3.86 | 23.8% | 15.7% | 468 | +0.50 | 3.36 | 606 | 89 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.1% | .288 | 3.85 | 24.0% | 10.3% | 102 | -0.55 | 3.85 | 191 | 88 |
| Lucas Gordon L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 3.0% | .269 | 8.07 | 11.6% | 1.8% | 13 | +3.67 | 4.40 | 233 | 88 |
| Anthony Veneziano L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.27 | 24.9% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .298 | 5.02 | 18.7% | 8.0% | 358 | +0.75 | 4.27 | 501 | 88 |
| Brian Holmes L 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.77 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.46 | 3.58 | 205 | 88 |
| Hunter Owen L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 197 | 88 |
| Kevin Smith L 2025 · 3.25 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.25 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 1.4% | .337 | 5.79 | 21.5% | 5.1% | 131 | +2.54 | 3.25 | 248 | 86 |
| Gage Jump L 2025 · 3.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.19 | 22.6% | 7.9% | 1.8% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 113 | 86 |
| David Parkinson L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.69 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .303 | 5.45 | 16.0% | 8.2% | 78 | +1.76 | 3.06 | 517 | 86 |
| Austin Krob L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.56 | 19.9% | 10.7% | 1.5% | .329 | 4.06 | 17.7% | 6.7% | 171 | +0.50 | 3.56 | 280 | 86 |
| Shane McClanahan L 2025 · 3.36 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.36 | 23.3% | 10.4% | 1.7% | .315 | 3.07 | 29.0% | 22.6% | 290 | -0.29 | 2.93 | 539 | 86 |
| Jackson Kent L 2025 · 4.40 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.2% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 123 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +2.4 | $21M | +$20M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +2.4 | $22M | +$21M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +2.3 | $21M | +$20M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +2.2 | $21M | +$17M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +2.0 | $20M | +$13M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $8M | +1.8 | $18M | +$10M |
| Totals | $22M | $123M | +$101M | ||