Griffin Herring — OGILVIE

Griffin Herring P Hartford Yard Goats

Age 23 LHP 6'2" / 196 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.5 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION30 act + 139 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100109vR 119

ERA4.38

FIP4.38

K%23.9%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%11.8%

ROS IP139

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 170 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5050

CTRL—50

CMD4045

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$7M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2031	Arb-1	$4M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.2M
2032	Arb-2	$5M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$6M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$27M	+$19M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	22	MIX	2 levels	23	23	119	474	149	49	4	100%	5.2	23.8%	12.0%	11.8%	1.3%	1.89	3.34	—
2025	22	MIX	2 levels	23	23	119	474	149	49	4	100%	5.2	31.4%	10.3%	21.1%	0.8%	1.89	2.27	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	15	5	30	141	41	27	5	33%	2.0	23.3%	22.4%	0.8%	5.6%	6.53	7.02	-0.9
ROS	23	MLB	COL	133	0	139	588	140	71	15	0%	1.0	23.9%	12.1%	11.8%	2.5%	4.38	4.38	+1.7
ROS	23	MLB	COL	3	0	3	13	3	2	0	0%	1.0	23.9%	12.1%	11.8%	2.9%	4.59	4.59	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB	COL	—	—	170	729	181	98	20	—	—	24.9%	13.4%	11.4%	2.7%	4.76	4.85	+1.1
2026 FULL	23	MLB	COL	—	—	3	12	3	1	0	—	—	23.9%	12.1%	11.8%	2.9%	4.59	4.21	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	COL	26	26	143	603	146	66	15	100%	5.5	24.2%	11.0%	13.3%	2.5%	4.28	4.22	+2.0
2028	25	MLB	COL	25	25	145	611	149	63	16	100%	5.8	24.5%	10.3%	14.1%	2.6%	4.19	4.13	+2.1
2029	26	MLB	COL	24	24	145	611	150	62	16	100%	6.0	24.5%	10.2%	14.4%	2.6%	4.15	4.12	+2.2
2030	27	MLB	COL	24	24	142	601	147	61	16	100%	5.9	24.5%	10.2%	14.3%	2.6%	4.15	4.16	+2.1
2031	28	MLB	COL	23	23	138	583	142	60	16	100%	6.0	24.3%	10.3%	14.0%	2.7%	4.21	4.24	+1.9
2032	29	MLB	COL	22	22	132	557	134	59	16	100%	6.0	24.1%	10.6%	13.5%	2.9%	4.31	4.37	+1.6
2033	30	MLB	COL	21	21	124	524	124	57	16	100%	5.9	23.8%	10.9%	12.9%	3.1%	4.45	4.55	+1.2
2034	31	MLB	COL	19	19	116	488	114	55	16	100%	6.1	23.4%	11.2%	12.1%	3.3%	4.63	4.75	+0.9
2027	24	MLB	COL	11	11	63	266	65	29	8	100%	5.7	24.2%	11.0%	13.3%	2.9%	4.49	4.43	+0.1
2028	25	MLB	COL	17	17	97	410	100	42	12	100%	5.7	24.5%	10.3%	14.1%	3.0%	4.40	4.34	+1.1
2029	26	MLB	COL	19	19	115	486	119	49	14	100%	6.1	24.5%	10.2%	14.4%	3.0%	4.37	4.34	+1.4
2030	27	MLB	COL	20	20	122	515	126	52	16	100%	6.1	24.5%	10.2%	14.3%	3.1%	4.37	4.38	+1.5
2031	28	MLB	COL	20	20	123	519	126	54	16	100%	6.2	24.3%	10.3%	14.0%	3.2%	4.44	4.47	+1.3
2032	29	MLB	COL	20	20	120	507	122	54	17	100%	6.0	24.1%	10.6%	13.5%	3.3%	4.55	4.61	+1.1
2033	30	MLB	COL	19	19	114	481	114	52	17	100%	6.0	23.8%	10.9%	12.9%	3.6%	4.71	4.81	+0.8
2034	31	MLB	COL	18	18	108	456	106	51	17	100%	6.0	23.4%	11.2%	12.1%	3.8%	4.91	5.03	+0.5
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			147	145	864	3647	881	385	118	99%	5.9	24.2%	10.6%	13.6%	3.2%	4.53	4.18	+12.3
/ 200 IP	—			34	33	200	844	204	89	27	98%	5.9	24.2%	10.6%	13.6%	3.2%	4.53	4.18	+2.9
Career	—			38	28	150	615	146	88	14	74%	3.9	23.7%	14.4%	9.3%	2.3%	2.83	4.18	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—			51	37	200	822	195	118	19	74%	3.9	23.7%	14.4%	9.3%	2.3%	2.83	4.18	+2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Griffin Herring (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.38	23.9%	12.1%	2.5%	—	4.16	24.4%	13.9%	432	-0.22	—	—	—
Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP-	4.33	23.4%	12.4%	3.0%	.288	4.01	25.1%	10.7%	150	-0.32	3.72	239	81
Will Johnston L 2026 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP-	4.21	24.8%	11.6%	3.2%	.290	4.34	22.8%	8.6%	82	+0.13	4.04	174	81
A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.68 FIP	23	SP-	3.68	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.86	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.18	3.64	203	81
Adam Tulloch L 2026 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.65	17.8%	1.7%	139	+0.16	4.12	234	80
Jimmy Robbins L 2027 · 3.89 FIP	24	SP-	3.89	23.3%	11.3%	2.4%	.286	4.89	18.1%	2.5%	99	+1.00	3.89	176	79
Will Dion L 2026 · 3.47 FIP	23	SP-	3.47	22.3%	8.4%	2.1%	.289	4.03	21.3%	12.2%	264	+0.56	2.44	496	78
Brian Holmes L 2027 · 4.25 FIP	24	SP-	4.25	21.0%	9.9%	3.0%	.333	4.75	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.50	3.42	205	78
Hayden Wynja L 2027 · 4.84 FIP	24	SP-	4.84	20.5%	10.5%	3.9%	.315	4.77	18.0%	7.5%	56	-0.07	4.77	154	78
Sam Garcia L 2026 · 4.74 FIP	23	SP-	4.74	18.5%	12.7%	2.9%	.284	3.62	25.5%	9.2%	24	-1.12	3.62	125	78
Dalton Sawyer L 2026 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	20.6%	9.4%	2.3%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	160	77
Josh Trentadue L 2026 · 3.63 FIP	23	SP-	3.63	23.1%	12.0%	1.7%	.249	4.99	21.5%	9.2%	48	+1.36	3.10	196	77
Everett Catlett L 2026 · 3.82 FIP	23	SP-	3.82	17.6%	10.0%	1.7%	.325	5.22	19.6%	8.8%	78	+1.40	3.82	211	77
Ben Shields L 2028 · 3.20 FIP	25	SP-	3.20	25.3%	8.2%	2.2%	.273	2.91	23.5%	13.3%	43	-0.29	2.91	147	76
Hunter Owen L 2026 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.0%	10.7%	2.5%	.297	6.60	15.1%	4.8%	51	+2.54	4.06	248	76
Tate Kuehner L 2026 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	20.5%	13.9%	1.6%	.275	3.80	20.7%	7.5%	141	-0.20	3.73	245	75
Max Fried L 2026 · 4.54 FIP	23	SP-	4.54	18.0%	11.1%	2.8%	.318	3.35	24.2%	15.8%	322	-1.19	2.56	1,397	74
Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	20.1%	9.0%	3.5%	.349	4.18	22.0%	8.2%	175	-0.31	3.65	308	74
Kyle Harrison L 2026 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP	3.72	23.1%	10.0%	2.4%	.328	2.95	29.6%	23.7%	84	-0.77	2.95	632	74
Brandon Knarr L 2026 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.21	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.62	4.15	256	74
Drew Parrish L 2026 · 3.53 FIP	23	SP-	3.53	24.1%	7.9%	2.7%	.261	6.22	16.8%	6.5%	354	+2.69	3.53	522	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9	136	24.1%	10.7%	1.07	4.30
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Gio Gonzalez ('20)	6	141	21.8%	9.5%	0.85	3.85
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Patrick Sandoval ('24)	6	89	22.7%	10.1%	0.92	4.01
Trevor Bauer ('21)	7	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Julio Teheran ('23)	7	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12