Griffin Herring — OGILVIE

Griffin Herring P Hartford Yard Goats

Age 23 LHP 6'2" / 196 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.8 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION31 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 116

ERA4.38

FIP4.38

K%23.9%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%11.7%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$28M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5050

CTRL—50

CMD4045

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$7M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$6M
2031	Arb-1	$4M	+1.0	$5M	+$3M
2032	Arb-2	$5M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$6M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$25M	+$18M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	119	474	149	49	4	100%	5.2	23.8%	12.0%	11.8%	1.2%	1.89	3.25	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	119	474	149	49	4	100%	5.2	23.8%	12.0%	11.8%	1.2%	1.89	3.25	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	119	474	149	49	4	100%	5.2	31.4%	10.3%	21.1%	0.8%	1.89	2.27	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	16	5	31	149	42	30	5	31%	2.0	22.3%	23.7%	-1.4%	5.2%	7.18	7.06	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	16	5	31	149	42	30	5	31%	2.0	22.3%	23.7%	-1.4%	5.2%	7.18	7.06	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	COL	4	2	8	33	10	5	0	50%	2.0	30.3%	15.2%	15.2%	0.0%	2.25	2.46	—
2026	23	AA RAW	COL	12	3	23	116	32	25	5	25%	1.9	27.6%	21.6%	6.0%	4.3%	8.87	5.87	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	COL	12	0	13	53	13	7	1	0%	1.1	23.9%	12.2%	11.7%	2.5%	4.38	4.38	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	COL	—	—	44	202	55	37	6	—	—	27.1%	18.0%	9.0%	3.1%	6.38	6.29	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	COL	26	26	143	603	146	67	15	100%	5.5	24.2%	11.1%	13.2%	2.5%	4.28	4.22	+1.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	COL	25	25	145	611	149	64	16	100%	5.8	24.5%	10.4%	14.1%	2.5%	4.19	4.13	+1.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	COL	24	24	145	611	150	62	16	100%	6.0	24.5%	10.2%	14.3%	2.6%	4.14	4.11	+1.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	COL	24	24	142	601	147	62	16	100%	5.9	24.5%	10.2%	14.2%	2.6%	4.15	4.15	+1.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	COL	23	23	138	583	142	61	16	100%	6.0	24.3%	10.4%	14.0%	2.7%	4.20	4.24	+1.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	COL	22	22	132	557	134	59	16	100%	6.0	24.1%	10.6%	13.5%	2.9%	4.30	4.37	+0.8
2033	30	MLB MLE	COL	21	21	124	524	124	57	16	100%	5.9	23.8%	10.9%	12.8%	3.1%	4.45	4.55	+0.5
2034	31	MLB MLE	COL	19	19	116	488	114	55	16	100%	6.1	23.4%	11.3%	12.1%	3.3%	4.63	4.75	+0.2
2035	32	MLB MLE	COL	18	18	107	451	103	53	16	100%	5.9	22.9%	11.7%	11.2%	3.5%	4.84	4.97	-0.1
2036	33	MLB MLE	COL	16	16	98	414	93	50	16	100%	6.1	22.4%	12.1%	10.3%	3.8%	5.07	5.22	-0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	COL	11	11	63	266	65	29	8	100%	5.7	24.2%	11.1%	13.2%	2.9%	4.49	4.43	+0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	COL	17	17	97	410	100	43	12	100%	5.7	24.5%	10.4%	14.1%	2.9%	4.40	4.34	+0.9
2029	26	MLB CTX	COL	19	19	115	486	119	50	14	100%	6.1	24.5%	10.2%	14.3%	3.0%	4.35	4.32	+1.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	COL	20	20	122	515	126	53	16	100%	6.1	24.5%	10.2%	14.2%	3.0%	4.37	4.37	+1.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	COL	20	20	123	519	126	54	16	100%	6.2	24.3%	10.4%	14.0%	3.1%	4.43	4.47	+1.0
2032	29	MLB CTX	COL	20	20	120	507	122	54	17	100%	6.0	24.1%	10.6%	13.5%	3.3%	4.54	4.61	+0.7
2033	30	MLB CTX	COL	19	19	114	481	114	53	17	100%	6.0	23.8%	10.9%	12.8%	3.5%	4.71	4.81	+0.5
2034	31	MLB CTX	COL	18	18	108	456	106	51	17	100%	6.0	23.4%	11.3%	12.1%	3.8%	4.91	5.03	+0.2
2035	32	MLB CTX	COL	17	17	100	422	97	49	17	100%	5.9	22.9%	11.7%	11.2%	4.1%	5.14	5.27	-0.1
2036	33	MLB CTX	COL	16	16	93	393	88	48	17	100%	5.8	22.4%	12.1%	10.3%	4.4%	5.39	5.54	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		177	177	1055	4453	1063	483	152	100%	6.0	23.9%	10.8%	13.0%	3.4%	4.66	4.33	+7.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	202	92	29	100%	6.0	23.9%	10.8%	13.0%	3.4%	4.66	4.33	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		39	28	151	623	146	92	13	72%	3.9	23.5%	14.8%	8.7%	2.1%	2.99	4.16	+7.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	37	200	827	194	122	18	72%	3.9	23.5%	14.8%	8.7%	2.1%	2.99	4.16	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Griffin Herring (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.38	23.9%	12.2%	2.5%	—	4.15	24.4%	13.8%	432	-0.23	—	—	—
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	80
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	79
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	79
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	78
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	77
Will Dion L 2023 · 3.37 FIP	23	SP-	3.37	22.3%	8.4%	2.0%	.289	4.06	21.2%	13.2%	294	+0.69	3.09	526	76
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	75
Trey Dombroski L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	22.3%	8.4%	4.0%	.280	4.93	19.0%	8.3%	302	+0.45	3.80	421	75
Max Fried L 2017 · 4.44 FIP	23	SP-	4.44	18.0%	11.1%	2.6%	.318	3.35	24.2%	15.8%	322	-1.09	2.56	1,435	74
Carson Teel L 2019 · 3.43 FIP	23	SP-	3.43	17.2%	8.8%	1.2%	.292	4.86	16.9%	10.0%	144	+1.43	3.43	248	74
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.26	20.8%	9.6%	219	-0.34	2.32	359	73
Robby Ahlstrom L 2022 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	20.1%	9.0%	3.8%	.349	4.06	21.6%	8.6%	175	-0.56	3.74	330	73
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	73
Drew Parrish L 2021 · 3.47 FIP	23	SP-	3.47	24.1%	7.9%	2.6%	.261	5.91	16.6%	6.8%	354	+2.44	3.47	522	73
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	73
Trenton Wallace L 2022 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	25.8%	15.8%	1.3%	.224	4.62	22.4%	10.7%	206	+1.00	2.87	286	73
James Reeves L 2016 · 3.32 FIP	23	SW	3.32	21.9%	8.7%	1.8%	.237	3.30	23.0%	13.1%	146	-0.02	2.02	280	72
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	72
Patrick Wicklander L 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP-	4.95	16.9%	8.8%	3.9%	.327	5.11	15.1%	0.1%	45	+0.16	4.88	254	72
Seth Lonsway L 2022 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	21.2%	14.4%	2.3%	.304	4.16	15.9%	4.3%	319	-0.25	3.35	498	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.1	130	23.9%	11.0%	1.11	4.39
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68