Griffin Herring

P Hartford Yard Goats

Age 24 LHP 6'2" / 196 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#657ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	23	23	119	1.89	2.27	31.4%	10.3%	—	K 23.8% · BB 12.0% · FIP 3.25
2026	23	MIX2 levels	16	5	31	7.18	5.37	28.2%	20.1%	—	K 22.3% · BB 23.7% · FIP 7.06
2027PROJ	24	MLBCOL	1	1	3	5.13	5.13	23.3%	15.6%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBCOL	8	8	49	5.18	5.11	23.6%	13.7%	0.3
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBCOL	11	11	68	5.08	5.04	23.6%	13.2%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$1M2033Arb-3$1.0M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsCody Reed (age 24) · Hayden Wynja (age 24) · Will Johnston (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114122vR 131

ERA5.13

FIP5.13

K%23.3%

BB%15.6%

K-BB%7.7%

Proj IP139

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 139 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$12M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2032	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M
2033	Arb-3	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	119	474	149	49	4	100%	5.2	23.8%	12.0%	11.8%	1.2%	1.89	3.25	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	119	474	149	49	4	100%	5.2	23.8%	12.0%	11.8%	1.2%	1.89	3.25	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	119	474	149	49	4	100%	5.2	31.4%	10.3%	21.1%	0.8%	1.89	2.27	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	5	31	149	42	30	5	31%	2.0	22.3%	23.7%	-1.4%	5.2%	7.18	7.06	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	5	31	149	42	30	5	31%	2.0	22.3%	23.7%	-1.4%	5.2%	7.18	7.06	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	5	31	149	42	30	5	31%	2.0	28.2%	20.1%	8.1%	3.4%	7.18	5.37	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	COL	1	1	3	13	3	2	0	100%	3.0	23.3%	15.6%	7.7%	3.0%	5.13	5.13	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	COL	19	19	112	473	112	65	14	100%	5.9	23.6%	13.7%	9.9%	3.0%	4.93	4.86	+0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	COL	17	17	102	432	102	57	13	100%	6.0	23.6%	13.2%	10.5%	3.0%	4.83	4.79	+0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	COL	16	16	97	409	96	53	12	100%	6.0	23.5%	13.0%	10.6%	3.0%	4.80	4.80	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	COL	15	15	92	386	90	50	12	100%	6.1	23.4%	13.0%	10.4%	3.1%	4.84	4.87	+0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	COL	14	14	85	358	83	47	12	100%	6.1	23.2%	13.2%	9.9%	3.3%	4.94	5.00	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	COL	13	13	77	324	74	44	11	100%	5.9	22.8%	13.5%	9.3%	3.5%	5.08	5.18	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	COL	8	8	49	207	49	28	7	100%	6.1	23.6%	13.7%	9.9%	3.4%	5.18	5.11	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	COL	11	11	68	287	68	38	10	100%	6.2	23.6%	13.2%	10.5%	3.4%	5.08	5.04	+0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	COL	12	12	75	317	75	41	11	100%	6.2	23.5%	13.0%	10.6%	3.5%	5.05	5.05	+0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	COL	13	13	77	325	76	42	12	100%	5.9	23.4%	13.0%	10.4%	3.6%	5.10	5.13	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	COL	12	12	74	312	72	41	12	100%	6.2	23.2%	13.2%	9.9%	3.8%	5.21	5.27	+0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	COL	12	12	69	291	66	39	12	100%	5.8	22.8%	13.5%	9.3%	4.0%	5.37	5.47	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		69	69	413	1745	407	231	63	100%	6.0	23.3%	13.2%	10.1%	3.6%	5.16	4.80	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	197	112	30	100%	6.0	23.3%	13.2%	10.1%	3.6%	5.16	4.80	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		39	28	151	623	146	92	13	72%	3.9	23.5%	14.8%	8.7%	2.1%	2.99	4.16	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	37	200	827	194	122	18	72%	3.9	23.5%	14.8%	8.7%	2.1%	2.99	4.16	+1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAHartford Yard Goats · 23 IPFIP 5.87 → 7.06 (+1.19)K% 27.6% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.59%	—	×0.810	22.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	21.55%	—	×1.100	23.71%
HR / BF /BF	4.31%	÷1.000	×1.200	5.17%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.87 → 7.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Rockies · 8 IPFIP 2.46 → 3.76 (+1.30)K% 30.3% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.30%	—	×0.680	20.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.15%	—	×1.250	18.94%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.46 → 3.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Spokane Indians · 75 IPFIP 2.30 → 3.19 (+0.89)K% 30.3% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.33%	—	×0.770	23.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.00%	—	×1.150	12.65%
HR / BF /BF	0.67%	÷0.999	×1.250	0.83%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.30 → 3.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ATampa Tarpons · 45 IPFIP 2.08 → 3.37 (+1.29)K% 33.3% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.740	24.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.20%	—	×1.180	10.85%
HR / BF /BF	1.15%	÷0.842	×1.300	1.78%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 68).

Result: FIP 2.08 → 3.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Griffin Herring (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.82	23.6%	10.3%	311	-0.31	—	—	—
Cody Reed L 2017 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	19.1%	14.3%	1.8%	.301	3.86	22.0%	13.8%	181	-0.44	2.90	572	79
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	76
Will Johnston L 2024 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP-	3.94	24.8%	11.6%	2.7%	.290	4.56	22.9%	7.5%	104	+0.62	3.94	195	76
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	75
Dante Biasi L 2022 · 4.91 FIP	24	SP-	4.91	18.7%	15.9%	2.5%	.288	6.65	20.1%	1.7%	69	+1.74	4.91	224	74
Brian Burres L 2007 · 4.50 FIP	26	SW	4.50	17.2%	11.6%	2.5%	.328	4.71	11.3%	3.1%	209	+0.21	4.50	344	74
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	73
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	72
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.25	20.9%	9.7%	219	-0.35	2.32	362	72
Ismael Guillón L 2016 · 4.38 FIP	24	SW	4.38	24.9%	12.5%	3.3%	.206	4.43	20.1%	6.0%	100	+0.05	4.35	193	71
Noah Dean L 2024 · 4.41 FIP	23	SP-	4.41	25.4%	18.4%	2.0%	.216	5.93	21.1%	1.3%	74	+1.52	4.41	217	70
Nate Peterson L 2024 · 5.51 FIP	24	SP-	5.51	19.2%	11.4%	4.7%	.296	4.75	16.0%	3.7%	148	-0.76	4.27	315	70
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	70
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	69
Scott DeCecco L 2015 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP-	4.55	14.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	125	69
Jaylen Nowlin L 2024 · 5.15 FIP	23	SP-	5.15	18.7%	12.6%	3.7%	.299	4.77	21.7%	3.2%	100	-0.38	3.45	372	68
Garrett Williams L 2019 · 4.16 FIP	24	SP-	4.16	18.0%	13.1%	1.7%	.261	4.70	23.8%	7.8%	129	+0.54	3.37	470	68
Dylan Carmouche L 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.0%	11.6%	2.5%	.332	5.21	16.7%	6.8%	116	+0.86	4.35	239	68
Doug Davis L 2000 · 5.12 FIP	24	SW	5.12	14.7%	12.2%	3.1%	.302	4.41	13.0%	4.1%	355	-0.71	3.47	1,713	68
Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP-	5.07	15.2%	12.0%	3.2%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	105	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	100	23.4%	13.7%	1.20	4.94
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Tim Conroy ('78-'87, -3 WAR*)	2.3	78	20.8%*	13.6%*	1.12*	5.23*
Tim Lollar ('80-'86, 3 WAR*)	4.5	129	21.2%*	12.2%*	1.35*	4.94*
David West ('88-'98, 1 WAR*)	2.8	71	22.1%*	12.1%*	1.28*	4.79*
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*