Kyle McCoy

P Dayton Dragons

Age 23 LHP 6'6" / 205 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.6 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#602ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	23	17	90	5.20	3.63	22.3%	10.3%	—	K 17.0% · BB 11.9% · FIP 4.53
2027PROJ	23	MLBCIN	—	—	0	4.99	4.99	18.2%	11.6%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBCIN	5	5	29	4.94	4.86	19.6%	10.5%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBCIN	7	7	41	4.78	4.71	20.3%	9.9%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$0.8M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 2.6, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 90%

CompsNate Peterson (age 23) · Christian MacLeod (age 23) · Adam Tulloch (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 128

ERA4.99

FIP4.99

K%18.2%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%6.6%

Proj IP63

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$20M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.6M
2035	Arb-2	$1M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	17	90	408	91	42	8	74%	3.9	17.0%	11.9%	5.1%	2.5%	5.20	4.53	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	17	90	408	91	42	8	74%	3.9	17.0%	11.9%	5.1%	2.5%	5.20	4.53	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	17	90	408	91	42	8	74%	3.9	22.3%	10.3%	12.0%	2.0%	5.20	3.63	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	CIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.2%	11.6%	6.6%	2.9%	4.99	4.99	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	67	282	55	30	8	100%	5.6	19.6%	10.5%	9.0%	2.9%	4.81	4.73	+0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	62	261	53	26	7	100%	5.6	20.3%	9.9%	10.5%	2.9%	4.65	4.58	+0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	60	255	53	25	7	100%	6.0	20.7%	9.7%	11.0%	2.9%	4.57	4.53	+0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	59	247	51	24	7	100%	5.9	20.8%	9.7%	11.0%	2.9%	4.56	4.56	+0.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	CIN	9	9	56	235	48	23	7	100%	6.2	20.6%	9.9%	10.7%	3.0%	4.61	4.64	+0.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	CIN	9	9	57	239	53	22	8	100%	6.3	22.4%	9.3%	13.1%	3.2%	4.55	4.51	+0.6
2034	30	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	51	215	47	21	7	100%	6.4	22.0%	9.6%	12.4%	3.4%	4.63	4.68	+0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	45	190	41	19	7	100%	5.6	21.6%	10.0%	11.7%	3.6%	4.78	4.88	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	CIN	5	5	29	122	24	13	4	100%	5.8	19.6%	10.5%	9.0%	3.1%	4.94	4.86	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	41	173	35	17	5	100%	5.9	20.3%	9.9%	10.5%	3.1%	4.78	4.71	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	48	203	42	20	6	100%	6.0	20.7%	9.7%	11.0%	3.1%	4.70	4.66	+0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	50	211	44	21	7	100%	6.2	20.8%	9.7%	11.0%	3.1%	4.69	4.69	+0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	49	207	43	20	7	100%	6.1	20.6%	9.9%	10.7%	3.3%	4.74	4.77	+0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	51	215	48	20	7	100%	6.4	22.4%	9.3%	13.1%	3.4%	4.69	4.65	+0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	47	198	44	19	7	100%	5.9	22.0%	9.6%	12.4%	3.6%	4.78	4.83	+0.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	42	177	38	18	7	100%	6.0	21.6%	10.0%	11.7%	3.9%	4.94	5.04	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	60	358	1510	318	148	50	100%	6.0	21.1%	9.8%	11.3%	3.3%	4.77	4.38	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	178	83	28	100%	5.9	21.1%	9.8%	11.3%	3.3%	4.77	4.38	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		23	17	90	408	69	49	10	74%	3.9	17.0%	11.9%	5.1%	2.5%	5.20	4.53	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	38	200	907	154	108	22	74%	3.9	17.0%	11.9%	5.1%	2.5%	5.20	4.53	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Dayton Dragons · 66 IPFIP 3.58 → 4.48 (+0.90)K% 22.3% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.33%	—	×0.770	17.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.150	11.50%
HR / BF /BF	2.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.50%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.58 → 4.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ADaytona Tortugas · 24 IPFIP 3.65 → 4.69 (+1.05)K% 22.2% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.22%	—	×0.740	16.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.180	13.11%
HR / BF /BF	1.85%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.41%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.65 → 4.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle McCoy (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.99	18.2%	11.6%	2.9%	—	4.62	20.2%	10.1%	189	-0.37	—	—	—
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	91
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.61	19.4%	5.0%	215	+0.09	3.88	280	85
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	83
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	83
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	83
Dallas Braden L 2007 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP-	4.14	16.6%	7.5%	2.7%	.337	3.89	14.1%	7.8%	401	-0.25	3.64	491	83
Brad Halsey L 2004 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	16.3%	9.2%	2.6%	.336	4.43	11.9%	5.4%	254	+0.12	4.31	286	82
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	82
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	82
Robby Ahlstrom L 2022 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	20.1%	9.0%	3.8%	.349	4.04	21.9%	8.9%	175	-0.58	3.79	332	82
Jaylen Nowlin L 2024 · 5.15 FIP	23	SP-	5.15	18.7%	12.6%	3.7%	.299	4.77	21.7%	3.2%	100	-0.38	3.45	372	81
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.8%	17.5%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	81
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	81
Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP-	5.07	15.2%	12.0%	3.2%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	105	81
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	81
Luke French L 2009 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	13.5%	8.7%	3.5%	.328	5.15	10.0%	2.7%	88	+0.16	4.99	155	80
Antonio Bastardo L 2009 · 4.73 FIP	23	SP	4.73	17.9%	8.5%	3.8%	.297	3.04	33.0%	22.1%	129	-1.69	2.47	404	80
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	80
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	80
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	58	20.6%	10.1%	1.17	4.69
Dan Miceli ('06)	3.5	64	20.6%	10.1%	1.19	4.48
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*