Kyle McCoy — OGILVIE

Kyle McCoy P Dayton Dragons

Age 22 LHP 6'6" / 205 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.3 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 123

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%20.7%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%9.9%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$18M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$3M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	23	17	90	408	91	42	8	74%	3.9	17.0%	11.9%	5.1%	2.5%	5.20	4.53	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	23	17	90	408	91	42	8	74%	3.9	17.0%	11.9%	5.1%	2.5%	5.20	4.53	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	CIN	7	3	24	108	24	12	2	43%	3.4	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	1.9%	3.80	3.65	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	CIN	16	14	66	300	67	30	6	88%	4.1	22.3%	10.0%	12.3%	2.0%	5.70	3.58	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CIN	17	17	91	386	83	38	11	100%	5.4	21.6%	9.8%	11.8%	2.9%	4.58	4.51	+0.4
2028	24	MLB MLE	CIN	17	17	94	396	88	37	11	100%	5.5	22.2%	9.2%	12.9%	2.9%	4.45	4.37	+0.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	CIN	16	16	95	401	90	36	12	100%	5.9	22.5%	8.9%	13.6%	2.9%	4.36	4.30	+0.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	CIN	16	16	95	401	91	35	12	100%	5.9	22.7%	8.8%	13.9%	2.9%	4.31	4.27	+0.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	CIN	16	16	94	395	90	35	12	100%	5.8	22.7%	8.9%	13.8%	2.9%	4.31	4.31	+0.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	CIN	15	15	91	383	86	35	12	100%	6.0	22.6%	9.1%	13.5%	3.0%	4.36	4.40	+0.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	CIN	14	14	87	366	82	34	12	100%	6.2	22.3%	9.3%	13.0%	3.2%	4.46	4.53	+0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	CIN	14	14	81	344	76	33	12	100%	5.8	22.0%	9.6%	12.4%	3.4%	4.61	4.70	+0.2
2035	31	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	76	320	76	29	12	100%	5.8	23.6%	9.2%	14.4%	3.6%	4.63	4.64	+0.2
2036	32	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	70	296	69	28	11	100%	5.9	23.1%	9.6%	13.6%	3.9%	4.77	4.86	+0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	45	190	41	19	6	100%	5.6	21.6%	9.8%	11.8%	3.2%	4.71	4.64	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	66	279	62	26	9	100%	5.5	22.2%	9.2%	12.9%	3.1%	4.58	4.50	+0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	CIN	13	13	77	325	73	29	10	100%	5.9	22.5%	8.9%	13.6%	3.1%	4.49	4.43	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	CIN	14	14	83	350	80	31	11	100%	5.9	22.7%	8.8%	13.9%	3.1%	4.44	4.40	+0.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	CIN	14	14	84	355	81	32	11	100%	6.0	22.7%	8.9%	13.8%	3.2%	4.44	4.44	+0.6
2032	28	MLB CTX	CIN	14	14	84	355	80	32	12	100%	6.0	22.6%	9.1%	13.5%	3.3%	4.49	4.53	+0.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	CIN	14	14	81	342	76	32	12	100%	5.8	22.3%	9.3%	13.0%	3.5%	4.60	4.67	+0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	CIN	13	13	76	321	71	31	12	100%	5.8	22.0%	9.6%	12.4%	3.7%	4.76	4.85	+0.2
2035	31	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	72	304	72	28	12	100%	6.0	23.6%	9.2%	14.4%	3.9%	4.79	4.80	+0.2
2036	32	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	67	283	65	27	12	100%	6.1	23.1%	9.6%	13.6%	4.2%	4.94	5.03	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		124	124	734	3100	700	285	106	100%	5.9	22.6%	9.2%	13.4%	3.4%	4.61	4.24	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	191	78	29	100%	5.9	22.6%	9.2%	13.4%	3.4%	4.61	4.24	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		23	17	90	408	69	49	10	74%	3.9	17.0%	11.9%	5.1%	2.5%	5.20	4.53	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	38	200	907	154	108	22	74%	3.9	17.0%	11.9%	5.1%	2.5%	5.20	4.53	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle McCoy (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	20.7%	10.8%	3.0%	—	4.39	22.1%	12.8%	280	-0.34	—	—	—
Alex Troop L 2018 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP-	4.41	15.0%	7.5%	3.0%	.339	3.82	20.8%	16.2%	106	-0.59	2.93	379	80
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	79
Bryan Sammons L 2017 · 3.58 FIP	22	SP-	3.58	22.7%	10.5%	1.9%	.275	3.96	18.4%	8.4%	228	+0.38	3.58	688	78
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.11	495	77
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	77
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	77
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	77
Wilkin Paredes L 2023 · 4.11 FIP	19	SP	4.11	16.2%	9.1%	2.2%	.353	4.96	12.1%	3.3%	273	+0.85	4.11	319	77
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	76
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	76
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	76
Sonny Vargas L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	20	SP-	4.54	21.0%	10.1%	3.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	165	76
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.92	278	75
Kyle Twomey L 2016 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP-	4.07	17.6%	10.5%	2.1%	.298	3.96	14.8%	6.9%	68	-0.11	3.96	141	75
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	75
Carlos Peña L 2021 · 4.06 FIP	22	SP-	4.06	17.0%	6.3%	2.9%	.271	3.95	18.3%	8.2%	309	-0.11	3.17	620	75
Jake Miller L 2023 · 5.50 FIP	22	SP-	5.50	17.2%	14.1%	3.8%	.345	3.04	22.5%	16.3%	99	-2.46	3.00	143	75
Adalberto Mejía L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	22	SP-	3.79	14.7%	9.4%	1.3%	.237	3.67	19.3%	11.8%	344	-0.12	3.30	427	74
Caleb Baragar L 2016 · 3.65 FIP	22	SP-	3.65	15.6%	9.2%	1.3%	.300	4.48	16.5%	8.1%	330	+0.83	3.65	557	74
Jackson Humphries L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	19.8%	14.0%	2.3%	.302	5.94	20.8%	1.5%	248	+1.46	4.48	305	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.5	81	22.5%	9.3%	1.21	4.48
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94