Mason McGwire

P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 190 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.9 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

Scout OFP40ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	19	ROKCHC	11	10	35	9.42	5.36	19.5%	15.7%	—	K 13.2% · BB 19.6% · FIP 6.54
2024	20	ACHC	15	8	41	5.71	5.39	15.9%	18.0%	—	K 11.7% · BB 21.2% · FIP 6.46
2026	22	MIX2 levels	23	16	79	3.76	3.02	28.4%	9.3%	—	K 21.4% · BB 10.7% · FIP 4.11
2027PROJ	23	MLBLAA	12	12	62	4.90	4.90	20.6%	12.3%	0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBLAA	6	6	31	4.79	4.73	21.4%	11.4%	0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBLAA	8	8	49	4.68	4.62	22.0%	10.9%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$0.6M+2

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control50Command40FB velo52

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 5, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 88%

CompsTanner Hall (age 22) · Noah Denoyer (age 23) · Ray Gaither (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%20.6%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%8.3%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5050

CTRL—50

CMD3040

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	11	10	35	185	36	29	5	91%	3.2	13.2%	19.6%	-6.4%	3.8%	9.42	6.54	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	11	10	35	185	36	29	5	91%	3.2	19.5%	15.7%	3.8%	2.7%	9.42	5.36	—
2024	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	15	8	41	189	30	34	4	53%	2.7	11.7%	21.2%	-9.5%	3.0%	5.71	6.46	—
2024	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	15	8	41	189	30	34	4	53%	2.7	11.7%	21.2%	-9.5%	3.0%	5.71	6.46	—
2024	20	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	15	8	41	189	30	34	4	53%	2.7	15.9%	18.0%	-2.1%	2.1%	5.71	5.39	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	16	79	335	95	31	7	70%	3.4	21.4%	10.7%	10.7%	2.7%	3.76	4.11	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	16	79	335	95	31	7	70%	3.4	21.4%	10.7%	10.7%	2.7%	3.76	4.11	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	16	79	335	95	31	7	70%	3.4	28.4%	9.3%	19.1%	2.1%	3.76	3.02	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	LAA	12	12	62	262	54	32	8	100%	5.2	20.6%	12.3%	8.3%	2.9%	4.90	4.90	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAA	13	13	73	308	66	35	9	100%	5.6	21.4%	11.4%	10.1%	2.9%	4.76	4.70	+0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAA	13	13	74	312	68	34	9	100%	5.7	22.0%	10.9%	11.1%	2.9%	4.65	4.59	+0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAA	12	12	74	312	69	34	9	100%	6.1	22.2%	10.8%	11.5%	2.9%	4.59	4.55	+0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAA	12	12	73	307	68	33	9	100%	6.1	22.2%	10.8%	11.5%	2.9%	4.59	4.59	+0.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	LAA	12	12	70	298	66	33	9	100%	5.9	22.1%	10.9%	11.2%	3.0%	4.64	4.67	+0.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	67	284	62	32	9	100%	6.1	21.9%	11.2%	10.7%	3.2%	4.74	4.80	+0.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	63	267	58	31	9	100%	5.8	21.5%	11.5%	10.1%	3.4%	4.88	4.98	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAA	6	6	31	131	28	15	4	100%	5.2	21.4%	11.4%	10.1%	3.0%	4.79	4.73	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAA	8	8	49	207	45	23	6	100%	6.1	22.0%	10.9%	11.1%	2.9%	4.68	4.62	+0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	59	249	55	27	7	100%	5.9	22.2%	10.8%	11.5%	3.0%	4.62	4.58	+0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	62	262	58	28	8	100%	6.2	22.2%	10.8%	11.5%	3.0%	4.62	4.62	+0.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	63	266	59	29	8	100%	6.3	22.1%	10.9%	11.2%	3.1%	4.67	4.70	+0.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	61	258	56	29	8	100%	6.1	21.9%	11.2%	10.7%	3.3%	4.78	4.84	+0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	58	245	53	28	8	100%	5.8	21.5%	11.5%	10.1%	3.5%	4.92	5.02	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	64	383	1618	355	179	50	100%	6.0	22.0%	11.0%	10.9%	3.1%	4.72	4.35	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	185	93	26	100%	5.9	22.0%	11.0%	10.9%	3.1%	4.72	4.35	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		49	34	155	709	118	112	22	69%	3.2	16.7%	15.8%	0.9%	3.1%	5.56	5.37	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	44	200	913	153	145	28	69%	3.2	16.7%	15.8%	0.9%	3.1%	5.56	5.37	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason McGwire (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	20.6%	12.3%	2.9%	—	4.61	21.9%	10.9%	220	-0.29	—	—	—
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	92
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	90
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	89
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	89
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	86
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	86
Dean Deetz R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	22.2%	13.7%	2.5%	.298	4.73	29.1%	10.7%	68	+0.41	2.61	281	85
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	85
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.56	18.8%	9.0%	178	+1.83	3.73	274	85
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	84
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.71	21.6%	11.0%	188	-0.66	3.16	266	84
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	83
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	82
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	82
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.71	16.3%	4.2%	225	+1.42	2.86	357	82
Ben Casparius R 2022 · 5.29 FIP	23	SP-	5.29	20.6%	13.2%	4.1%	.306	4.37	21.6%	11.0%	274	-0.92	3.36	374	82
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	81
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	81
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	81
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.83	17.8%	6.5%	200	+0.57	4.26	292	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	69	21.8%	11.2%	1.17	4.71
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
Luis Vizcaino ('09)	2.7	68	21.0%	10.1%	1.30	4.33
Dan Miceli ('06)	3.5	64	20.6%	10.1%	1.19	4.48
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*