Nolan Schubart — OGILVIE

Nolan Schubart1B Lake County Captains

Age 22 L/R 6'4" / 227 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION532 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†95

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP279

ISO190

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 36 / POW 62

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT36

scouting grade only

POWER62

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED30

scouting grade only

DEFENSE37

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$1.0M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	66	51	13	2	0	3	15	24	0	1	0	255	424	471	895	216	417	36	23	402	158	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	66	56	9	1	0	2	10	34	0	1	0	161	288	286	574	125	357	52	15	261	63	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	66	56	9	1	0	2	10	34	0	1	0	161	288	286	574	125	350	52	15	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	66	51	13	2	0	3	15	24	0	1	0	255	424	471	895	216	417	36	23	402	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	66	56	9	1	0	2	10	34	0	1	0	161	288	286	574	125	357	52	15	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	66	56	9	1	0	2	10	34	0	1	0	161	288	286	574	125	357	52	15	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	CLE	—	532	458	81	12	2	25	70	234	2	3	3	177	289	376	664	199	279	44	13	293	85	-10	-1	+0	-10	+12	-0.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ RAW	CLE	—	340	268	65	13	1	20	68	114	2	1	2	243	399	522	922	280	331	34	20	403	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	AA RAW	CLE	—	192	158	39	4	1	14	34	66	0	2	1	247	380	551	931	304	321	34	18	405	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	22	A+ MLE	CLE	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		280	33	11	309	95	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	22	A+ MLE	CLE	—	541	466	82	12	2	25	71	237	2	3	3	176	288	371	659	195	277	44	13	293	85	-10	-1	-0	-10	+12	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CLE	43%	575	496	101	17	2	26	71	212	3	4	2	204	307	403	710	200	285	37	12	316	100	-0	+0	-3	-10	+12	-0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	CLE	58%	609	525	110	18	2	28	75	216	4	5	2	210	313	411	724	202	287	35	12	320	103	+2	+0	-3	-11	+13	0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	CLE	65%	620	536	113	19	2	28	75	215	4	5	2	211	312	410	723	200	287	35	12	323	105	+3	+0	-3	-11	+13	0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	CLE	68%	619	535	113	19	2	28	75	213	4	5	2	211	313	411	724	200	287	34	12	324	105	+4	+0	-3	-11	+13	0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	CLE	68%	614	530	112	19	2	28	75	212	4	5	2	211	314	413	727	202	287	35	12	324	106	+4	+0	-3	-11	+13	0.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	CLE	68%	606	522	110	19	2	27	75	210	4	4	2	211	314	410	724	199	286	35	12	323	105	+3	+0	-4	-11	+13	0.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	CLE	66%	597	514	108	18	2	27	74	208	4	4	2	210	314	411	725	200	285	35	12	321	104	+2	+0	-4	-11	+13	0.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	CLE	66%	587	505	106	18	2	26	73	206	4	4	2	210	314	408	722	198	283	35	12	318	102	+1	+0	-5	-10	+13	-0.2
2035	31	MLB MLE	CLE	65%	576	497	102	17	2	25	71	204	3	4	2	205	308	398	707	193	281	35	12	314	99	-1	+0	-6	-10	+12	-0.4
2036	32	MLB MLE	CLE	65%	565	487	98	16	2	24	70	202	3	3	2	201	305	390	696	189	277	36	12	309	95	-3	-0	-6	-10	+12	-0.8
2037	33	MLB MLE	CLE	65%	488	422	82	13	1	20	60	177	3	3	1	194	299	372	671	178	272	36	12	302	91	-5	+0	-6	-9	+11	-1.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	CLE	43%	249	215	43	7	1	11	31	92	1	2	1	200	304	395	699	195	284	37	12	311	100	-0	+0	-1	-4	+5	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	CLE	58%	353	305	64	11	1	16	43	125	2	3	1	210	311	410	721	200	286	35	12	315	103	+1	+0	-2	-6	+8	0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	CLE	65%	402	348	73	12	1	18	49	140	2	3	2	210	311	405	716	195	286	35	12	317	105	+2	-0	-2	-7	+9	0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	CLE	68%	421	364	77	13	1	19	51	145	3	3	2	212	313	409	723	198	286	34	12	318	105	+3	-0	-2	-8	+9	0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	CLE	68%	418	361	76	13	1	19	51	144	3	3	2	211	313	410	723	199	286	34	12	319	106	+3	-0	-2	-7	+9	0.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	CLE	68%	412	355	75	13	1	19	51	143	3	3	2	211	315	414	729	203	286	35	12	318	105	+2	-0	-2	-7	+9	0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	CLE	66%	397	343	72	12	1	18	49	138	2	3	1	210	312	408	720	198	284	35	12	316	104	+2	+0	-3	-7	+9	0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	CLE	66%	385	332	69	12	1	17	48	135	2	3	1	208	312	404	715	196	283	35	12	313	102	+1	+0	-3	-7	+8	-0.1
2035	31	MLB CTX	CLE	65%	375	324	66	11	1	16	46	133	2	2	1	204	306	392	698	188	280	35	12	309	99	-0	+0	-4	-7	+8	-0.3
2036	32	MLB CTX	CLE	65%	366	316	62	10	1	15	45	131	2	2	1	196	300	377	677	180	276	36	12	304	95	-2	+0	-4	-7	+8	-0.5
2037	33	MLB CTX	CLE	65%	315	271	53	8	1	13	39	114	2	2	1	196	301	376	678	181	271	36	12	297	91	-4	+0	-4	-6	+7	-0.7
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4093	3534	730	122	11	181	503	1440	24	29	15	207	310	401	710	194	284	35	12	313	101	+8	-0	-29	-73	+89	-0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	561	116	19	2	29	80	229	4	5	2	207	310	403	713	196	284	35	12	313	101	+1	-0	-5	-12	+14	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	6531	5633	1165	194	21	289	805	2312	40	47	21	207	310	403	713	196	286	35	12	318	101	+11	+1	-45	-115	+140	-0.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	561	116	19	2	29	80	230	4	5	2	207	310	403	713	196	285	35	12	318	101	+1	+0	-5	-12	+14	-0.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mark Reynoldslast yr '19 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,243 PA	9.4	6,243	298	64	236	328	453	-49	-105	16.0	16.3
/162	664	32	7	-5.2	-11.1	1.7	pk7: 17
#2Joey Gallolast yr '24 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,373 PA	5.1	3,373	207	32	195	320	459	-29	-11	13.5	14.1
/162	664	41	6	-5.6	-2.1	2.7	pk7: 15
#3Khris Davislast yr '21 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,804 PA	5.7	3,804	221	18	242	314	491	-40	-39	13.3	13.4
/162	664	39	3	-7.0	-6.9	2.3	pk7: 13
#4Pedro Álvarezlast yr '18 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,287 PA	5.0	3,287	161	15	235	309	447	+1	-40	10.0	10.2
/162	664	33	3	+0.2	-8.0	2.0	pk7: 10
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	6.2	4,092	182	29	209	308	406	-25	-36	9.4	8.5
/162	664	29	5	-4.0	-5.9	1.5	pk7: 8
#5Brandon Mosslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,459 PA	5.2	3,459	160	11	238	315	455	-53	-41	5.9	5.9
/162	664	31	2	-10.2	-7.9	1.1	pk7: 6
#6Chris Carterlast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,807 PA	4.2	2,807	158	12	219	314	462	-50	-50	3.3	3.3
/162	664	37	3	-11.7	-11.9	0.8	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nolan Schubart (OGILVIE)	22	20→36	50→62	30	50	193/299/385	193	280	7	1	38%	13%	95	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Sergio Pedroza 2007 · A	23	42→47	56→60	38→45	47	220/314/415	194	293	24	3	32%	10%	106	+1.8	229/303/387	158	305	17	7	29%	8%	95	+1.0	228/299/376	148	295	16	7	27%	7%	89	+0.3
✕Kellen Kulbacki 2009 · A	23	47→46	56→60	38→30	50	248/319/434	185	284	25	4	22%	8%	112	+2.2	220/275/335	115	265	12	6	21%	7%	72	-0.7	193/235/261	68	234	4	5	19%	5%	36	-0.8
✕MJ Melendez 2022 · AAA	23	38→48	60	40→50	46	217/288/430	213	270	29	5	32%	9%	99	+1.3	224/305/409	185	277	22	6	26%	10%	101	+1.4	218/301/397	179	270	20	5	26%	10%	94	+0.8
●Travis Ishikawa 2006 · A	22	45→49	53→55	41→45	45	227/302/408	181	315	21	3	33%	9%	99	+1.3	217/278/374	157	300	17	3	32%	7%	83	+0.1	256/319/421	164	308	18	6	22%	8%	105	+1.0
●Mark Vientos 2022 · AAA	22	41→50	55→60	38→30	37	222/269/403	181	298	24	3	34%	5%	86	+0.3	239/296/423	184	323	24	2	32%	7%	101	+1.4	243/303/441	198	304	26	1	28%	7%	106	+1.5
●Spencer Torkelson 2022 · AAA	22	41→45	57→60	45→40	50	223/310/423	200	269	24	6	27%	10%	106	+1.8	219/299/389	170	275	20	3	27%	9%	95	+0.9	228/314/430	201	280	26	2	27%	10%	106	+2.0
✕Kyle Wilson 2006 · A	23	46	56→60	38→30	38	240/288/426	186	311	24	4	31%	5%	99	+1.2	217/260/335	118	279	12	4	26%	4%	67	-1.1	196/233/283	87	248	8	0	24%	2%	42	-1.4
✕Travis Snider 2010 · MLB	22	50→53	52→55	39→50	45	246/312/419	174	335	20	4	31%	8%	105	+1.7	250/305/412	162	318	18	12	26%	7%	101	+1.4	252/321/404	152	307	18	5	23%	9%	102	+0.9
✕Seth Beer 2021 · AA	24	46	52→50	38→30	41	240/310/403	163	295	21	3	26%	5%	102	+1.5	217/305/356	139	266	15	2	24%	7%	90	+0.6	204/296/332	127	256	14	0	24%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Jaff Decker 2011 · A	21	46→49	54→55	45→55	51	235/324/415	180	304	22	7	29%	10%	109	+2.0	209/292/354	145	278	16	9	29%	10%	84	+0.1	221/295/327	106	285	9	13	24%	9%	76	-0.3
✕Nathan Hickey 2023 · A	23	43→39	54→50	43→40	50	221/318/403	183	306	22	3	33%	11%	105	+1.7	199/280/347	148	284	17	4	34%	9%	78	-0.3	183/261/317	134	259	15	3	34%	9%	62	-1.1
✕Allan Cerda 2022 · A	22	40→23	53→50	39→45	40	204/284/384	180	304	20	5	38%	8%	88	+0.4	173/275/329	156	276	19	7	41%	10%	73	-0.6	142/256/290	148	220	20	7	42%	11%	54	-1.0
●Andy Pages 2023 · AA	22	38→48	55	45→50	44	207/289/391	184	267	23	6	31%	8%	92	+0.7	240/307/413	173	302	20	9	27%	7%	103	+1.5	266/322/445	180	311	23	10	22%	6%	115	+2.3
✕Francisco Alvarez 2023 · AAA	21	44→45	58→60	43→40	47	233/313/435	202	294	27	4	30%	9%	110	+2.1	231/305/429	198	282	27	4	28%	8%	106	+1.8	229/304/430	202	273	28	2	27%	9%	104	+1.1
✕Michael McKenry 2009 · A	24	42→48	52→55	38→40	47	222/296/395	173	274	20	4	27%	8%	95	+0.9	221/284/354	133	278	14	3	25%	8%	80	-0.1	251/325/430	179	297	23	2	23%	9%	110	+0.8
✕George Valera 2023 · AAA	22	42→40	51→50	44→45	48	214/298/373	159	287	19	6	31%	10%	90	+0.6	209/285/349	140	293	16	6	32%	9%	80	-0.2	215/282/349	134	280	16	5	28%	8%	76	-0.2
✕Chris Carter 2006 · AA	23	47→57	56→55	37→40	48	251/307/438	187	265	25	2	17%	6%	108	+1.9	259/312/409	150	288	17	5	16%	7%	103	+1.5	262/313/405	143	294	16	4	16%	6%	101	+1.3
✕Kyle Manzardo 2023 · AA	23	50→43	57→60	44→40	51	259/331/460	200	296	24	4	22%	9%	122	+2.9	225/301/409	184	266	22	3	24%	9%	99	+1.3	222/304/411	189	270	24	2	27%	9%	100	+1.1
✕Marcos Castañon 2023 · A	24	39→49	53→50	38→40	47	207/302/378	171	280	22	2	33%	10%	93	+0.8	222/284/365	143	292	17	3	29%	7%	83	+0.1	224/279/359	135	291	15	2	27%	6%	77	-0.3
✕Adam Duvall 2012 · A	23	44→45	55→70	44→45	45	234/301/428	194	281	23	4	26%	7%	104	+1.6	220/272/405	185	257	24	4	25%	6%	88	+0.5	225/286/491	266	245	40	3	28%	7%	112	+1.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps