Nolan Schubart

1B Lake County Captains

Age 23 L/R 6'4" / 227 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#904ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	ALynchburg Hil…	66	.255/.424/.471	3	1	68	—	.182/.318/.327
2026	22	AA/A+CLE	537	.244/.393/.537	35	3	94	—	.189/.301/.401
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBCLE	1	.216/.319/.425	0	0	109	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	24	MLBCLE	184	.219/.321/.428	9	2	111	0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	25	MLBCLE	280	.221/.322/.429	13	2	111	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$1M2033Arb-2$1M2034Arb-3$7M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

ISO96

BB%95

wRC+92

wOBA89

Chase%76

Speed21

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 6.5, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 82%

CompsMJ Melendez (age 23) · Sergio Pedroza (age 23) · Kellen Kulbacki (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†109

AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .319 / .425

PA1

HR0

K%33

BB%12

BABIP281

ISO210

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$2M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	66	51	13	2	0	3	15	24	0	1	0	255	424	471	895	216	417	36	23	402	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	197	162	40	4	1	15	35	67	0	2	1	247	381	562	942	315	312	34	18	409	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Lake County Captains	—	340	268	65	13	1	20	68	114	2	1	2	243	399	522	922	280	331	34	20	403	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	66	55	10	2	0	2	11	33	0	1	0	182	318	327	645	145	353	50	17	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	—	197	174	35	3	1	12	23	82	0	2	1	201	294	437	731	236	292	42	12	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	340	287	52	10	1	15	49	145	2	1	2	181	305	380	685	199	274	43	14	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	66	55	10	2	0	2	11	33	0	1	0	182	318	327	645	145	400	50	17	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	66	51	13	2	0	3	15	24	0	1	0	255	424	471	895	216	417	36	23	402	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	537	461	87	13	2	27	72	227	2	3	3	189	301	401	702	213	287	42	13	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	537	430	105	17	2	35	103	181	2	3	3	244	393	537	930	293	324	34	19	405	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	66	55	10	2	0	2	11	33	0	1	0	182	318	327	645	145	353	50	17	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	537	458	87	13	2	27	72	227	2	3	3	190	301	404	705	214	281	42	13	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	66	55	10	2	0	2	11	33	0	1	0	182	318	327	645	145	353	50	17	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	537	458	87	13	2	27	72	227	2	3	3	190	301	404	705	214	281	42	13	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CLE	0%	524	450	98	16	2	25	66	173	3	6	2	216	319	426	745	210	281	33	13	330	109	+6	+0	-2	-9	+11	0.6
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	CLE	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	216	319	425	744	209	281	0	0	329	109	+0	+0	-0	-0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CLE	38%	486	420	92	15	2	23	60	157	3	5	2	219	321	430	751	211	283	32	12	332	111	+6	+0	-2	-9	+11	0.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	CLE	55%	504	434	97	16	2	24	62	160	3	4	2	221	322	431	752	209	283	32	12	333	111	+7	+0	-2	-9	+11	0.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	CLE	64%	510	440	98	16	2	24	62	159	3	4	2	222	322	429	751	207	283	31	12	332	111	+7	+0	-2	-9	+11	0.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	CLE	66%	509	440	98	16	2	23	61	157	3	4	2	222	321	425	746	203	283	31	12	330	110	+6	+0	-2	-9	+11	0.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	CLE	67%	502	435	96	16	2	22	59	154	3	3	2	222	319	420	738	198	283	31	12	327	108	+5	-0	-3	-9	+11	0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	CLE	66%	494	430	94	16	2	21	58	153	3	2	2	219	316	413	729	194	281	31	12	324	105	+3	-0	-3	-9	+11	0.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	CLE	65%	483	421	91	15	2	20	56	151	3	2	5	216	312	405	717	189	278	31	12	319	102	+1	-2	-4	-9	+10	-0.3
2035	31	MLB MLE	CLE	65%	473	413	87	15	1	19	55	150	2	2	6	212	307	394	702	183	275	32	12	313	98	-1	-2	-5	-8	+10	-0.6
2036	32	MLB MLE	CLE	65%	461	403	83	14	1	18	53	148	2	2	7	206	301	381	682	175	270	32	11	305	93	-4	-2	-5	-8	+10	-1.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	CLE	38%	184	158	36	6	1	9	23	59	1	2	1	219	321	428	749	209	283	32	12	332	111	+2	+0	-1	-3	+4	0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	CLE	55%	280	242	53	9	1	13	34	89	2	2	1	221	322	429	751	208	284	32	12	332	111	+4	+0	-1	-5	+6	0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	CLE	64%	325	281	63	11	1	15	39	101	2	3	1	222	322	428	750	206	284	31	12	332	111	+4	+0	-1	-6	+7	0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	CLE	66%	334	289	64	11	1	15	40	103	2	2	1	222	321	424	745	202	284	31	12	330	110	+4	+0	-1	-6	+7	0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	CLE	67%	335	291	65	11	1	15	39	103	2	2	1	222	319	419	737	197	283	31	12	327	108	+3	+0	-2	-6	+7	0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	CLE	66%	325	282	62	11	1	14	38	101	2	1	1	219	316	412	728	193	281	31	12	323	105	+2	-0	-2	-6	+7	0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	CLE	65%	315	273	59	10	1	13	37	99	2	1	3	216	312	404	716	188	279	31	12	319	102	+1	-1	-3	-6	+7	-0.2
2035	31	MLB CTX	CLE	65%	306	267	57	10	1	12	35	97	1	1	4	212	307	394	701	182	275	32	11	313	98	-1	-1	-3	-5	+7	-0.4
2036	32	MLB CTX	CLE	65%	298	261	54	9	1	12	34	96	1	2	4	206	301	381	682	174	271	32	11	305	93	-3	-1	-3	-5	+6	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2702	2344	513	88	9	118	319	848	15	16	17	219	316	415	731	196	284	31	12	323	104	+17	-4	-17	-48	+59	0.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	564	123	21	2	28	77	204	4	4	4	218	317	411	728	193	283	31	12	323	104	+4	-1	-4	-12	+14	0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	5235	4533	972	160	19	233	635	1718	28	34	34	214	315	412	727	198	283	33	12	322	104	+31	-6	-28	-83	+100	1.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	563	121	20	2	29	79	213	3	4	4	215	315	412	727	197	284	33	12	322	104	+4	-1	-4	-12	+14	0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Lake County Captains · 340 PAwOBA .395 → .299 (−96)K% 33.5% → 42.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.53%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	42.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.00%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.012	14.37%
HBP% /PA	0.59%	—	×0.790	—	×1.012	0.47%
Singles /BIP	20.13%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.950	×1.012	17.80%
Doubles /BIP	8.44%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.950	×1.012	6.57%
Triples /BIP	0.65%	÷1.000	×0.850	×0.950	×1.012	0.53%
Home runs /BIP	12.99%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.012	10.51%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .395 → .299; ISO .280 → .212; BABIP .331 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAkron RubberDucks · 197 PAwOBA .393 → .320 (−73)K% 34.0% → 41.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	34.01%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	41.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.24%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.042	11.85%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.05%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.974	×1.042	20.72%
Doubles /BIP	4.21%	÷1.000	×0.860	×0.974	×1.042	3.67%
Triples /BIP	1.05%	÷1.000	×0.950	×0.974	×1.042	1.01%
Home runs /BIP	15.79%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.042	12.83%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.

Result: wOBA .393 → .320; ISO .315 → .251; BABIP .312 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALynchburg Hillcats · 66 PAwOBA .392 → .269 (−123)K% 36.4% → 50.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	36.36%	÷0.989	×1.360	—	—	49.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	22.73%	÷0.975	×0.690	—	×1.015	16.33%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.00%
Singles /BIP	29.63%	÷1.071	×0.920	—	×1.015	25.83%
Doubles /BIP	7.41%	÷0.921	×0.830	—	×1.015	6.77%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.020	×0.910	—	×1.015	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	11.11%	÷1.184	×0.800	—	×1.015	7.62%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 114, 2B 84, 3B 104, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .392 → .269; ISO .216 → .129; BABIP .417 → .353. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mitch Hanigerlast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,089 PA	4.7	3,089	130	19	250	324	448	-31	-36	7.8	8.4
/162	664	28	4	-6.7	-7.8	1.7	pk7: 9
#2Hunter Renfroelast yr '25 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,727 PA	5.6	3,727	188	15	235	297	458	-40	-32	7.3	8.0
/162	664	33	3	-7.1	-5.7	1.3	pk7: 9
#3Anthony Santanderlast yr '25 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,305 PA	5.0	3,305	161	10	241	305	459	-35	-36	6.7	7.2
/162	664	32	2	-7.1	-7.3	1.4	pk7: 8
#4Nick Esasky'83-'90 * career totals — 7 seasons, 3,064 PA	4.6	3,064	122	18	248*	329*	480*	-33	-30	6.9	7.1
/162	664	26	4	-7.2	-6.5	1.5	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	4.1	2,703	118	16	219	313	416	-16	-31	7.0	6.8
/162	664	29	4	-4.0	-7.6	1.7	pk7: 7
#5Cory Snyder'86-'94 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,933 PA	5.9	3,933	149	28	243*	290*	445*	-35	-18	4.7	5.7
/162	664	25	5	-5.9	-3.0	0.8	pk7: 7
#6Bobby Darwin'62-'77 * career totals — 5 seasons, 2,436 PA	3.7	2,436	83	15	255*	315*	465*	-24	-24	3.4	3.5
/162	664	23	4	-6.5	-6.6	0.9	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nolan Schubart (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	214/316/422	208	281	10	2	33%	13%	109	+0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕MJ Melendez 2022 · AAA	23	40→48	61→60	40→50	46	223/295/441	219	278	30	5	32%	9%	105	+1.7	225/305/410	185	278	22	6	26%	10%	101	+1.4	217/299/394	178	268	20	5	26%	10%	96	+1.0
✕Sergio Pedroza 2007 · A	23	42→46	56→60	38→45	48	221/315/416	195	294	24	3	32%	10%	107	+1.8	229/303/389	160	305	18	7	29%	8%	96	+1.0	227/297/375	148	293	16	7	27%	7%	88	+0.3
✕Kellen Kulbacki 2009 · A	23	47→46	56→60	38→30	50	248/319/433	185	284	25	4	22%	8%	112	+2.2	218/274/334	116	262	12	6	21%	7%	72	-0.7	189/233/258	68	230	4	5	19%	5%	35	-0.8
●Mark Vientos 2023 · MLB	23	48→51	55→60	37→30	40	242/299/424	182	337	25	2	35%	7%	102	+1.5	248/306/443	195	322	25	2	30%	7%	109	+2.0	247/307/448	201	309	26	1	28%	7%	110	+1.8
●Pedro Álvarez 2011 · MLB	24	48	57→65	42→45	45	247/310/447	200	324	24	4	31%	8%	112	+2.2	234/300/430	196	305	26	3	31%	8%	104	+1.6	236/300/460	224	282	33	4	29%	8%	112	+2.0
●Kyle Manzardo 2023 · AA	23	50→43	59→60	44→40	50	262/330/473	212	293	26	4	21%	8%	125	+3.2	229/306/419	190	270	22	3	24%	9%	104	+1.6	223/305/412	189	273	24	2	27%	9%	102	+1.3
✕Joe Koshansky 2006 · AA	24	42→48	60→55	41→40	39	232/284/444	212	294	29	5	32%	6%	102	+1.5	236/295/420	184	312	24	4	31%	7%	100	+1.3	233/295/416	183	313	23	2	32%	8%	97	+1.1
✕Logan O'Hoppe 2024 · MLB	24	45→48	57→55	43→45	49	240/314/434	193	269	26	6	22%	8%	110	+2.1	233/291/394	161	295	22	4	28%	7%	93	+0.8	226/283/371	144	289	20	2	28%	6%	84	+0.1
✕Seth Beer 2021 · AA	24	47→46	53→55	38→30	41	242/312/410	168	298	22	3	26%	5%	105	+1.7	220/309/361	141	268	15	2	23%	7%	93	+0.8	208/299/335	127	258	13	0	24%	7%	82	-0.0
✕Justin Foscue 2022 · AA	23	44→48	59→55	43→50	40	232/305/445	213	313	27	5	34%	7%	110	+2.1	236/316/397	161	272	17	7	20%	9%	102	+1.5	232/321/385	153	262	16	7	18%	10%	99	+0.9
✕Juan Yepez 2022 · AAA	24	44→49	57→60	39→45	47	237/307/438	201	277	26	4	25%	8%	109	+2.0	234/292/406	172	275	21	3	23%	7%	95	+1.0	232/290/385	153	271	19	3	22%	7%	88	+0.4
✕Oswaldo Arcia 2015 · MLB	24	48→56	57→60	42→45	42	250/309/453	203	317	25	4	29%	7%	113	+2.3	223/284/402	179	290	23	3	31%	7%	92	+0.7	217/296/406	188	293	24	3	33%	8%	96	+0.5
✕Wilin Rosario 2013 · MLB	24	45→54	59→60	39→45	40	244/281/444	200	280	28	5	25%	5%	101	+1.4	257/288/428	171	301	22	5	22%	4%	99	+1.2	259/286/416	157	305	19	4	22%	3%	95	+0.7
●Spencer Torkelson 2022 · AAA	22	43→45	57→60	45→40	51	229/318/434	206	277	25	6	27%	10%	112	+2.2	220/302/392	172	276	20	3	27%	10%	96	+1.0	227/317/425	198	291	25	1	30%	10%	110	+2.2
●Chris Carter 2006 · AA	23	48→58	56→55	37→40	48	252/307/441	189	265	25	2	17%	6%	109	+2.0	268/322/430	162	297	19	5	16%	7%	112	+2.2	275/327/435	160	306	18	4	16%	7%	112	+2.2
✕Nolan Gorman 2024 · MLB	24	43→46	61→60	48→45	45	235/305/449	214	302	31	8	33%	9%	110	+2.1	208/285/399	191	281	27	6	35%	10%	92	+0.7	186/269/358	172	251	25	3	36%	10%	77	-0.2
●Kerry Carpenter 2023 · MLB	25	46→53	57→70	35→45	40	244/294/444	200	291	26	5	26%	5%	105	+1.7	261/314/484	223	311	29	5	26%	6%	122	+2.9	263/316/500	236	306	32	3	25%	6%	127	+2.4
✕Kyle Wilson 2006 · A	23	46	55→60	38→30	38	239/286/424	185	309	24	4	31%	5%	98	+1.2	216/259/333	117	277	12	4	26%	4%	66	-1.1	194/230/280	86	245	7	0	24%	2%	40	-1.4
✕Nathan Hickey 2023 · A	23	43→40	54→50	43→40	51	219/317/402	183	298	22	3	32%	12%	104	+1.6	202/283/351	149	288	17	4	34%	10%	80	-0.2	186/266/323	137	264	16	3	34%	9%	65	-1.0
●Andy Pages 2023 · AA	22	39→49	56→60	45→50	45	211/297/402	191	273	24	6	31%	9%	97	+1.1	243/312/420	177	306	20	9	26%	7%	106	+1.8	269/326/453	184	315	23	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8

Nolan Schubart

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps