JR Ritchie

P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs AAA Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.5 · 2029

Overview

AAASP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX3 levels	12	11	50	2.90	3.44	27.3%	8.3%	—	K 22.8% · BB 9.1% · FIP 3.96
2025	22	MIX3 levels	26	26	140	2.64	3.37	24.8%	9.6%	—	K 20.4% · BB 9.7% · FIP 4.11
2026	23	MIX2 levels	33	27	156	3.99	4.44	23.6%	11.9%	0.8	K 21.7% · BB 11.3% · FIP 4.59
2027PROJ	24	MLBATL	31	31	175	4.72	4.88	21.8%	10.9%	0.0
2028PROJ68% MLB	25	MLBATL	21	21	120	4.68	4.69	22.4%	10.0%	0.3
2029PROJ80% MLB	26	MLBATL	24	24	142	4.64	4.63	22.6%	9.8%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.000First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$3M2030Arb-2$6M2031Arb-3$8M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo52

K%41

Whiff%29

xwOBA vs22

CompsBud Norris (age 24) · Cameron Foster (age 24) · Emerson Hancock (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127118vR 110

ERA4.72

FIP4.88

K%21.8%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%10.9%

Proj IP175

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 175 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL5050

CMD4555

K†5055

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5294.7

Whiff%

p2922.4%

p4120.9%

xwOBA vs

p220.345

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$6M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$8M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.8M		$5M	+$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	5	14	55	14	5	1	100%	2.9	25.5%	9.1%	16.4%	1.8%	1.88	3.10	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	5	14	55	14	5	1	100%	2.9	25.5%	9.1%	16.4%	1.8%	1.88	3.10	—
2023	20	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	4	4	13	53	25	3	0	100%	3.3	34.9%	6.7%	28.2%	0.0%	5.40	1.00	—
2023	20	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	4	4	13	53	25	3	0	100%	3.3	47.2%	5.7%	41.5%	0.0%	5.40	0.03	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	11	50	205	56	17	6	92%	4.1	22.8%	9.1%	13.7%	3.0%	2.90	3.96	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	11	50	205	56	17	6	92%	4.1	22.8%	9.1%	13.7%	3.0%	2.90	3.96	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	12	11	50	205	56	17	6	92%	4.1	27.3%	8.3%	19.0%	2.9%	2.90	3.44	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	140	564	140	54	12	100%	5.4	20.4%	9.7%	10.7%	2.7%	2.64	4.11	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	140	564	140	54	12	100%	5.4	20.4%	9.7%	10.7%	2.7%	2.64	4.11	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	26	140	564	140	54	12	100%	5.4	24.8%	9.6%	15.2%	2.1%	2.64	3.37	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	27	156	666	157	79	22	82%	4.7	21.7%	11.3%	10.4%	3.4%	3.99	4.59	+0.6
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	27	156	666	157	79	22	82%	4.7	21.7%	11.3%	10.4%	3.4%	3.99	4.59	+0.6
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	27	156	666	157	79	22	82%	4.7	23.6%	11.9%	11.7%	3.3%	3.99	4.44	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			17	11	73	326	68	42	13	65%	4.3	20.9%	12.9%	8.0%	4.0%	4.91	5.27	-0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	ATL	31	31	175	739	161	81	25	100%	5.6	21.8%	10.9%	10.9%	3.4%	4.72	4.88	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	ATL	30	30	177	748	168	75	25	100%	5.9	22.4%	10.0%	12.4%	3.3%	4.68	4.69	+0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	ATL	30	30	177	748	169	73	25	100%	5.9	22.6%	9.8%	12.8%	3.3%	4.64	4.63	+0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	ATL	29	29	174	737	166	72	25	100%	6.0	22.6%	9.8%	12.8%	3.3%	4.64	4.65	+0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	ATL	29	29	174	737	165	73	25	100%	6.0	22.4%	9.9%	12.6%	3.4%	4.68	4.72	+0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	ATL	28	28	167	703	154	71	25	100%	6.0	21.9%	10.1%	11.8%	3.6%	4.80	4.88	+0.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	ATL	26	26	157	661	140	69	25	100%	6.0	21.2%	10.4%	10.8%	3.8%	4.97	5.09	-0.3
2034	31	MLB MLE	ATL	24	24	146	616	126	66	25	100%	6.1	20.4%	10.8%	9.7%	4.0%	5.18	5.32	-0.7
2028	25	MLB CTX	ATL	21	21	120	507	113	51	17	100%	5.7	22.4%	10.0%	12.4%	3.3%	4.68	4.69	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	ATL	24	24	142	600	136	59	20	100%	5.9	22.6%	9.8%	12.8%	3.3%	4.64	4.63	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	ATL	25	25	149	629	142	62	21	100%	6.0	22.6%	9.8%	12.8%	3.3%	4.64	4.65	+0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	ATL	26	26	156	659	148	65	23	100%	6.0	22.4%	9.9%	12.6%	3.4%	4.68	4.72	+0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	ATL	25	25	152	642	140	65	23	100%	6.1	21.9%	10.1%	11.8%	3.6%	4.80	4.88	+0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	ATL	24	24	145	612	130	64	23	100%	6.0	21.2%	10.4%	10.8%	3.8%	4.97	5.09	-0.3
2034	31	MLB CTX	ATL	23	23	136	574	117	62	23	100%	5.9	20.4%	10.8%	9.7%	4.0%	5.18	5.32	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		184	178	1072	4542	993	468	162	97%	5.8	21.9%	10.3%	11.6%	3.6%	4.80	4.52	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	33	200	847	185	87	30	97%	5.8	21.9%	10.3%	11.6%	3.6%	4.80	4.52	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		80	73	373	1543	339	157	45	91%	4.7	21.9%	10.2%	11.8%	2.9%	3.31	4.15	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	39	200	827	182	84	24	91%	4.7	21.9%	10.2%	11.8%	2.9%	3.31	4.15	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
JR Ritchie (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	21.8%	10.9%	3.4%	—	4.66	22.5%	12.7%	529	-0.22	—	—	—
Bud Norris R 2009 · 4.47 FIP	24	SP	4.47	21.7%	9.6%	3.6%	.309	4.01	22.5%	13.5%	508	-0.46	3.51	1,221	86
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	86
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.31	18.5%	11.5%	428	+0.01	3.24	669	83
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	83
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	83
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	83
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.25	15.4%	5.9%	168	+0.82	4.43	239	83
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	82
Trevor May R 2014 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP	4.40	20.7%	9.9%	3.3%	.369	3.18	25.0%	19.1%	157	-1.22	3.05	477	82
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	82
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	82
Tim Redding R 2002 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	19.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.309	4.48	13.8%	5.4%	307	+0.08	3.97	822	81
Rafael Montero R 2014 · 5.04 FIP	23	SP-	5.04	21.6%	11.9%	4.1%	.298	4.32	19.3%	8.2%	296	-0.72	2.43	714	81
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	81
Blake Beers R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.94	17.7%	8.7%	323	+0.33	4.32	416	81
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	81
Jesse Foppert R 2003 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.2%	13.0%	3.2%	.274	7.32	11.3%	-13.2%	10	+2.52	4.80	121	81
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	81
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	81
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.1	158	21.9%	10.4%	1.37	4.78
Steve Stone ('71-'81, 16 WAR*)	8.9	163	21.3%*	9.2%*	1.34*	4.35*
Bill Voiselle ('42-'50, 12 WAR*)	6.9	172	23.3%*	9.2%*	1.41*	4.32*
Mike Norris ('75-'90, 8 WAR*)	5.6	125	21.2%*	10.4%*	1.18*	4.40*
Ian Snell ('10)	4.0	134	17.8%	10.4%	1.12	4.80
Kevin Foster ('01)	2.5	127	18.9%	10.0%	1.55	4.86
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45