Alex Rao prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Alex Rao P Jersey Shore BlueClaws

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 230 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 9 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.49

FIP5.49

K%21.4%

BB%17.5%

K-BB%3.9%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 9 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	0	3	11	1	1	0	0%	1.0	9.1%	9.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.48	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	0	3	11	1	1	0	0%	1.0	9.1%	9.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.43	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	6	28	125	33	14	2	38%	1.8	20.0%	13.5%	6.5%	2.1%	5.79	4.29	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	6	28	125	33	14	2	38%	1.8	20.0%	13.5%	6.5%	2.1%	5.79	4.29	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	6	28	125	33	14	2	38%	1.8	26.4%	11.2%	15.2%	1.6%	5.79	3.17	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	12	0	11	64	14	18	0	0%	0.9	16.8%	32.3%	-15.5%	0.0%	11.12	5.77	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	12	0	11	64	14	18	0	0%	0.9	16.8%	32.3%	-15.5%	0.0%	11.12	5.77	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	12	0	11	64	14	18	0	0%	0.9	21.9%	28.1%	-6.2%	0.0%	11.12	5.39	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	PHI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.4%	17.5%	3.9%	2.9%	5.49	5.49	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	PHI	19	0	20	84	18	14	3	0%	1.1	21.6%	16.7%	4.9%	3.0%	5.39	5.41	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	PHI	7	0	7	30	6	5	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	16.7%	4.9%	3.0%	5.39	5.41	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	7	5	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	16.7%	4.9%	3.0%	5.39	5.03	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	191	136	27	0%	1.1	21.6%	16.7%	4.9%	3.0%	5.39	5.03	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		31	6	42	200	37	39	3	19%	1.4	18.4%	19.3%	-0.9%	1.3%	6.80	4.72	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		146	28	200	945	174	182	13	19%	1.4	18.4%	19.3%	-0.9%	1.3%	6.80	4.72	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Rao (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.49	21.4%	17.5%	2.9%	—	5.41	21.6%	4.9%	20	-0.08	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.13	18.4%	7.3%	90	-0.76	3.84	164	79
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	78
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	78
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	77
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	77
Mitchell Stumpo R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	26	SU	4.55	24.0%	16.8%	2.4%	.225	5.67	21.5%	6.6%	78	+1.12	3.97	158	77
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.06	19.2%	3.8%	102	-0.66	3.74	203	77
Luis García R 2013 · 4.92 FIP	26	SU	4.92	16.7%	16.7%	2.0%	.270	3.68	20.3%	9.3%	151	-1.24	2.33	662	76
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	25	SU	4.61	20.9%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.12	24.4%	7.6%	107	-0.49	3.92	311	76
Josh Roberson R 2022 · 5.17 FIP	26	SU	5.17	19.3%	16.1%	3.0%	.361	4.11	20.3%	6.2%	70	-1.06	3.17	229	76
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	76
Manuel Alvarez R 2022 · 5.02 FIP	26	SU	5.02	20.3%	17.1%	2.7%	.330	6.63	11.8%	-14.8%	12	+1.61	4.58	154	76
Drake Fellows R 2023 · 5.66 FIP	25	SW	5.66	17.1%	20.4%	2.6%	.367	4.88	14.6%	5.6%	271	-0.78	4.28	282	76
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	76
Jackson Goddard R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	26	SU	4.53	21.1%	14.3%	2.5%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	149	75
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	75
Yaramil Hiraldo R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	25	SU	4.86	18.5%	15.5%	2.5%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	155	75
Esmerling Vasquez R 2010 · 4.37 FIP	26	SU	4.37	22.9%	14.6%	2.5%	.278	4.23	12.5%	1.5%	62	-0.14	3.70	204	75
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	75
Jose De La Torre R 2013 · 5.22 FIP	27	SU	5.22	28.3%	18.9%	3.9%	.308	3.87	17.6%	6.6%	110	-1.35	2.64	141	75