Jesus Rivero

P Carolina Mudcats

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 175 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	19	ROKACL Brewers B…	16	5	30	6.90	3.17	31.7%	18.6%	—	K 21.6% · BB 23.3% · FIP 4.75
2023	20	MIX2 levels	14	5	50	3.04	2.58	32.5%	13.4%	—	K 22.0% · BB 19.3% · FIP 4.09
2024	21	ACarolina Mudc…	18	6	48	5.59	3.20	29.2%	16.2%	—	K 21.6% · BB 19.1% · FIP 4.30
2027PROJ	24	MLBMIL	28	0	29	4.87	4.87	23.0%	13.5%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBMIL	11	0	12	4.72	4.66	23.4%	12.1%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsRay Gaither (age 24) · Trent Fennell (age 23) · Jeff Niemann (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 109

ERA4.87

FIP4.87

K%23.0%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%9.5%

Proj IP29

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 29 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	10	6	28	119	38	21	2	60%	2.8	21.7%	22.1%	-0.3%	2.5%	2.22	5.42	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 1	10	6	28	119	38	21	2	60%	2.8	31.9%	17.6%	14.3%	1.7%	2.22	3.56	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers Blue	16	5	30	145	46	27	1	31%	1.9	21.6%	23.3%	-1.7%	1.0%	6.90	4.75	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers Blue	16	5	30	145	46	27	1	31%	1.9	31.7%	18.6%	13.1%	0.7%	6.90	3.17	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	5	50	209	68	28	2	36%	3.6	22.0%	19.3%	2.7%	0.7%	3.04	4.09	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	5	50	209	68	28	2	36%	3.6	32.5%	13.4%	19.1%	1.0%	3.04	2.58	—
2024	21	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	18	6	48	216	63	35	2	33%	2.7	21.6%	19.1%	2.5%	1.1%	5.59	4.30	—
2024	21	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	18	6	48	216	63	35	2	33%	2.7	21.6%	19.1%	2.5%	1.1%	5.59	4.30	—
2024	21	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	18	6	48	216	63	35	2	33%	2.7	29.2%	16.2%	13.0%	0.9%	5.59	3.20	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	MIL	28	0	29	122	28	16	4	0%	1.0	23.0%	13.5%	9.5%	3.0%	4.87	4.87	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIL	28	0	29	123	29	15	4	0%	1.0	23.4%	12.1%	11.3%	2.9%	4.72	4.66	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIL	11	0	12	51	12	6	1	0%	1.1	23.4%	12.1%	11.3%	2.9%	4.72	4.66	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	12	53	12	6	2	0%	1.0	23.4%	12.1%	11.3%	2.9%	4.72	4.28	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	96	32	0%	1.1	23.4%	12.1%	11.3%	2.9%	4.72	4.28	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		58	22	157	689	150	142	8	38%	2.7	21.7%	20.6%	1.2%	1.2%	4.41	4.53	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	28	200	878	191	180	11	38%	2.7	21.7%	20.6%	1.2%	1.2%	4.41	4.53	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesus Rivero (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.87	23.0%	13.5%	3.0%	—	4.66	23.4%	11.3%	29	-0.21	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	81
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	80
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	80
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	79
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	78
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	78
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	77
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	77
Jonathan Papelbon R 2005 · 3.93 FIP	24	SW	3.93	23.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.305	1.90	31.3%	26.8%	196	-2.03	1.33	726	77
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	77
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	77
Peyton Pallette R 2024 · 4.38 FIP	23	SW	4.38	20.7%	10.9%	3.0%	.309	3.59	25.9%	13.5%	119	-0.79	3.54	273	76
Grant Ford R 2021 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	20.1%	13.2%	4.9%	.300	4.61	19.0%	4.5%	112	-1.17	3.83	188	76
Hunter Gregory R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	24	SW	4.06	20.0%	12.1%	2.0%	.322	5.10	20.1%	8.3%	161	+1.04	3.84	249	76
Austin Bergner R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	24	SW	4.99	24.0%	10.9%	4.6%	.277	4.87	21.6%	10.0%	274	-0.12	4.06	464	75
Ryan Zeferjahn R 2022 · 4.45 FIP	24	SW	4.45	21.0%	12.4%	2.8%	.325	4.36	27.3%	13.8%	163	-0.09	3.05	349	74
Tanner Burns R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SW	5.27	19.4%	12.5%	4.0%	.257	4.95	18.3%	5.2%	131	-0.32	4.34	382	74
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	74
Richard Guasch R 2022 · 4.41 FIP	24	SW	4.41	22.3%	16.2%	2.1%	.287	3.24	23.8%	11.8%	72	-1.17	2.94	316	74
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	23.2%	12.8%	1.14	4.79
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16