Rocco Reid
P
Hillsboro Hops
+0.1
WAR
Age 23
LHP
6'0" / 200 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.3 · 2028
ERA4.62
FIP4.62
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.8%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%10.8%
IP38
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2028
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 4 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 11.25 | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 31 | 0 | 45 | 205 | 50 | 28 | 3 | 18.4% | 15.9% | 1.9% | 2.98 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 4 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 7 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 11.57 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | ARI | 38 | — | 38 | 163 | 36 | 18 | 5 | 21.8% | 11.1% | 2.9% | 4.62 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 43 | 186 | 43 | 24 | 5 | 22.9% | 12.9% | 2.5% | 5.37 | 4.12 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 40 | — | 40 | 167 | 38 | 17 | 5 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.45 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 39 | 16 | 5 | 23.0% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.34 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 39 | 16 | 5 | 23.2% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.32 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 39 | 16 | 5 | 23.2% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.33 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 38 | 16 | 5 | 23.2% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 38 | — | 38 | 161 | 37 | 16 | 5 | 23.1% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.40 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 36 | 15 | 5 | 22.9% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.46 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 36 | — | 36 | 151 | 34 | 15 | 5 | 22.6% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 4.49 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 32 | 15 | 5 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.57 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 33 | — | 33 | 139 | 31 | 14 | 5 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.66 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 31 | — | 31 | 132 | 29 | 14 | 4 | 21.7% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 4.76 | 4.83 | +0.0 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 27 | 13 | 4 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 4.88 | 4.95 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 39 | 0 | 54 | 248 | 50 | 41 | 4 | 20.0% | 16.7% | 1.6% | 4.33 | 4.39 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 144 | 0 | 200 | 919 | 185 | 152 | 15 | 20.0% | 16.7% | 1.6% | 4.33 | 4.39 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Rocco Reid (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.62 | 21.8% | 11.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.37 | 22.9% | 13.0% | 120 | -0.25 | — | — | — |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.59 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.2% | .364 | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 55 | -0.58 | 4.01 | 101 | 89 |
| Brian Marconi L 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.91 | 25.3% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .265 | 5.03 | 20.3% | 2.1% | 57 | +1.12 | 3.91 | 101 | 88 |
| Daniel Zamora L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.56 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .294 | 2.75 | 24.7% | 16.8% | 135 | -0.81 | 2.15 | 310 | 87 |
| Austin Warner L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.02 | 18.6% | 8.1% | 2.7% | .291 | 4.40 | 17.6% | 9.4% | 284 | +0.38 | 3.83 | 491 | 87 |
| Fred Schlichtholz L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.29 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 2.7% | .368 | 4.12 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 80 | -0.17 | 3.52 | 175 | 87 |
| Jared Tobey L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.97 | 21.0% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .320 | 5.44 | 22.4% | 8.2% | 73 | +1.47 | 3.97 | 158 | 87 |
| Robert Garcia L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.39 | 24.0% | 11.4% | 3.4% | .342 | 4.38 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 106 | -0.01 | 2.09 | 452 | 87 |
| Hogan Harris L 2025 · 3.82 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.82 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 2.0% | .235 | 3.70 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 74 | -0.12 | 3.15 | 442 | 86 |
| Andrew Tomasovich L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.96 | 21.1% | 13.5% | 1.7% | .333 | 4.02 | 20.3% | 6.9% | 52 | +0.06 | 3.87 | 126 | 85 |
| Seth Clark L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.22 | 22.5% | 15.0% | 2.0% | .287 | 5.22 | 18.4% | 0.6% | 82 | +1.00 | 4.22 | 128 | 84 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.24 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 161 | 84 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2028 · 5.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.18 | 20.4% | 13.6% | 3.8% | .269 | 4.08 | 20.7% | 6.1% | 103 | -1.10 | 3.46 | 145 | 84 |
| Garrett Irvin L 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.43 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .283 | 4.34 | 17.7% | 2.9% | 39 | -0.09 | 4.34 | 110 | 83 |
| Lucas Knowles L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.87 | 20.5% | 12.9% | 1.6% | .366 | 4.21 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 177 | +0.34 | 3.37 | 208 | 83 |
| Brady Basso L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.92 | 21.8% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .333 | 4.21 | 22.1% | 15.5% | 179 | +0.29 | 2.24 | 237 | 83 |
| Josh Simpson L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.55 | 23.5% | 11.5% | 3.6% | .290 | 3.34 | 33.4% | 19.3% | 102 | -1.21 | 3.13 | 220 | 83 |
| Houston Harding L 2027 · 5.42 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.42 | 20.2% | 10.5% | 4.9% | .307 | 4.91 | 17.3% | 4.7% | 158 | -0.51 | 3.41 | 195 | 83 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.26 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 2.6% | .268 | 3.50 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 123 | -0.76 | 1.84 | 238 | 83 |
| Andrew Mitchell L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.75 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .333 | 2.70 | 23.8% | 15.8% | 78 | -1.05 | 2.51 | 119 | 83 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.91 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .326 | 4.61 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.70 | 1.71 | 206 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.3M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $4M | $6M | +$2M | ||