Logan Henderson

P Milwaukee Brewers

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 209 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 2.4 · 2028

Overview

MLBSP40-MANArb-1FA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX4 levels	19	19	81	3.32	3.17	32.8%	4.7%	—	K 25.1% · BB 4.7% · FIP 4.38
2025	23	MIX2 levels	21	20	103	3.15	3.22	29.2%	7.8%	2.1	K 26.2% · BB 7.2% · FIP 3.37
2026	24	MIX2 levels	25	23	122	2.28	2.92	31.3%	6.4%	3.0	K 30.2% · BB 6.2% · FIP 2.89
2027PROJ	25	MLBMIL	13	13	74	3.23	3.58	27.8%	5.6%	1.2
2028PROJ95% MLB	26	MLBMIL	19	19	116	3.52	3.65	28.0%	5.6%	1.9
2029PROJ95% MLB	27	MLBMIL	20	20	118	3.62	3.69	28.0%	5.7%	1.9

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 4.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.000First FA2031Super-2

2027Arb-1$2M2028Arb-2$6M2029Arb-3$10M2030Arb-4$15M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%90

xwOBA vs90

Whiff%58

FB Velo30

CompsKutter Crawford (age 25) · Shumpei Yoshikawa (age 24) · Andy Ferguson (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9082vR 73

ERA3.23

FIP3.58

K%27.8%

BB%5.6%

K-BB%22.2%

Proj IP74

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 74 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$21M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5555

CTRL5560

CMD5555

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3093.1

Whiff%

p5826.5%

p9029.6%

xwOBA vs

p900.257

CT (15%)

SL (3%)

CH (35%)

FB-0.5 (46%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2025

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$2M	+1.2	$10M	+$7M
2028	Arb-2	$6M	+1.9	$14M	+$9M
2029	Arb-3	$10M	+1.9	$13M	+$5M
2030	Arb-4	$15M	+1.7	$11M	+$0.2M
Totals		$33M		$48M	+$21M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	14	65	23	6	0	100%	2.0	23.8%	12.6%	11.1%	0.0%	3.95	2.69	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	14	65	23	6	0	100%	2.0	35.4%	9.2%	26.2%	0.0%	3.95	1.05	—
2023	21	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	18	18	79	301	106	26	8	100%	4.4	26.1%	10.2%	15.9%	3.2%	2.75	3.96	—
2023	21	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	18	18	79	301	106	26	8	100%	4.4	35.2%	8.6%	26.6%	2.7%	2.75	2.72	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	19	19	81	317	104	15	13	100%	4.3	25.1%	4.7%	20.4%	5.1%	3.32	4.38	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	19	19	81	317	104	15	13	100%	4.3	25.1%	4.7%	20.4%	5.1%	3.32	4.38	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	19	19	81	317	104	15	13	100%	4.3	32.8%	4.7%	28.1%	4.1%	3.32	3.17	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	103	411	120	32	12	95%	4.9	26.2%	7.2%	19.0%	2.9%	3.15	3.37	+1.9
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	103	411	120	32	12	95%	4.9	26.2%	7.2%	19.0%	2.9%	3.15	3.37	+1.9
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	20	103	411	120	32	12	95%	4.9	29.2%	7.8%	21.4%	2.9%	3.15	3.22	+2.1
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	122	469	147	30	14	92%	4.9	30.2%	6.2%	24.1%	2.8%	2.28	2.89	+3.1
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	122	469	147	30	14	92%	4.9	30.2%	6.2%	24.1%	2.8%	2.28	2.89	+3.1
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	122	469	147	30	14	92%	4.9	31.3%	6.4%	24.9%	3.0%	2.28	2.92	+3.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			23	23	124	470	143	27	17	100%	5.4	30.4%	5.7%	24.7%	3.6%	2.33	3.23	+2.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	MIL	13	13	74	312	87	18	10	100%	5.7	27.8%	5.6%	22.2%	3.2%	3.23	3.58	+1.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIL	20	20	122	516	144	29	16	100%	6.1	28.0%	5.6%	22.4%	3.2%	3.43	3.56	+2.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIL	21	21	124	525	147	30	17	100%	5.9	28.0%	5.7%	22.3%	3.2%	3.53	3.60	+2.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIL	21	21	124	525	146	30	17	100%	5.9	27.8%	5.8%	22.0%	3.3%	3.62	3.68	+1.8
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIL	20	20	119	501	137	30	17	100%	5.9	27.3%	6.0%	21.2%	3.5%	3.75	3.84	+1.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	MIL	19	19	112	471	125	30	17	100%	5.9	26.6%	6.3%	20.2%	3.7%	3.93	4.05	+1.1
2033	31	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	104	440	113	29	17	100%	6.1	25.8%	6.7%	19.1%	3.9%	4.14	4.28	+0.8
2034	32	MLB MLE	MIL	16	16	96	407	102	29	17	100%	6.0	25.0%	7.1%	17.9%	4.1%	4.38	4.54	+0.4
2035	33	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	88	373	90	28	16	100%	5.9	24.1%	7.5%	16.6%	4.4%	4.64	4.82	+0.1
2036	34	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	80	339	79	27	16	100%	6.2	23.2%	8.0%	15.2%	4.7%	4.93	5.12	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIL	19	19	116	490	137	27	16	100%	6.1	28.0%	5.6%	22.4%	3.3%	3.52	3.65	+1.9
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIL	20	20	118	498	139	28	17	100%	5.9	28.0%	5.7%	22.3%	3.4%	3.62	3.69	+1.9
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIL	20	20	118	498	139	29	17	100%	5.9	27.8%	5.8%	22.0%	3.5%	3.71	3.77	+1.7
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIL	19	19	113	477	130	29	17	100%	5.9	27.3%	6.0%	21.2%	3.6%	3.84	3.93	+1.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	MIL	18	18	106	448	119	28	17	100%	5.9	26.6%	6.3%	20.2%	3.8%	4.03	4.15	+1.1
2033	31	MLB CTX	MIL	16	16	99	418	108	28	17	100%	6.2	25.8%	6.7%	19.1%	4.1%	4.25	4.39	+0.7
2034	32	MLB CTX	MIL	15	15	91	384	96	27	17	100%	6.1	25.0%	7.1%	17.9%	4.3%	4.49	4.65	+0.4
2035	33	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	84	355	86	27	16	100%	6.0	24.1%	7.5%	16.6%	4.6%	4.76	4.94	+0.1
2036	34	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	73	308	72	25	15	100%	6.1	23.2%	8.0%	15.2%	4.9%	5.06	5.25	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		176	176	1042	4346	1168	275	167	100%	5.9	26.9%	6.3%	20.5%	3.8%	3.86	3.74	+14.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	834	224	53	32	100%	5.9	26.9%	6.3%	20.5%	3.8%	3.86	3.74	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		90	87	399	1563	423	112	51	97%	4.4	27.1%	7.2%	19.9%	3.3%	2.86	3.51	+11.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	44	200	783	212	56	26	97%	4.4	27.1%	7.2%	19.9%	3.3%	2.86	3.51	+2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Logan Henderson (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.58	27.8%	5.6%	3.2%	—	3.61	27.9%	22.2%	371	+0.03	—	—	—
Kutter Crawford R 2021 · 3.30 FIP	25	SP	3.30	29.1%	5.6%	3.5%	.321	4.23	23.6%	16.6%	415	+0.93	3.30	741	79
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	74
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	74
Yoshinobu Yamamoto R 2024 · 2.45 FIP	25	SP	2.45	28.5%	6.0%	1.8%	.303	2.98	27.5%	20.3%	359	+0.53	2.45	449	73
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	71
Will Warren R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	24.5%	7.6%	4.1%	.344	3.77	23.7%	15.2%	318	-0.49	3.72	709	71
Christian Scott R 2024 · 4.68 FIP	25	SP	4.68	23.9%	6.3%	5.1%	.249	3.48	27.9%	18.7%	124	-1.20	2.56	358	69
Owen Wild R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	22	SP	3.67	23.2%	7.2%	2.9%	.319	4.90	21.2%	12.1%	166	+1.23	3.67	287	69
Nick Pivetta R 2018 · 3.51 FIP	25	SP	3.51	27.1%	7.3%	3.2%	.323	4.29	25.2%	15.5%	305	+0.78	2.06	1,597	69
Sawyer Gipson-Long R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP	4.67	26.6%	7.6%	5.2%	.272	4.47	19.9%	12.1%	172	-0.20	3.87	512	68
Todd Redmond R 2013 · 4.14 FIP	28	SP-	4.14	23.5%	6.5%	4.0%	.266	3.57	17.0%	10.1%	170	-0.57	3.21	247	68
Chad Patrick R 2024 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP	3.92	22.5%	6.3%	3.5%	.262	3.78	23.0%	14.2%	268	-0.14	3.69	570	68
Shane Greene R 2014 · 3.37 FIP	25	SP	3.37	23.5%	8.4%	2.2%	.322	3.82	19.0%	10.9%	247	+0.45	2.86	563	67
Raisel Iglesias R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	23.7%	7.1%	2.8%	.271	3.11	27.7%	19.6%	226	-0.43	1.34	825	67
Glenn Otto Jr. R 2021 · 2.56 FIP	25	SP	2.56	28.3%	6.9%	1.8%	.336	4.94	19.8%	8.1%	194	+2.38	2.56	369	66
Mike Fiers R 2012 · 2.99 FIP	27	SP	2.99	25.0%	6.7%	2.1%	.317	3.82	24.0%	16.9%	274	+0.83	2.83	1,140	66
James McDonald R 2010 · 2.99 FIP	25	SP-	2.99	22.2%	7.8%	1.4%	.314	4.36	19.8%	10.2%	372	+1.37	2.99	506	66
Zebby Matthews R 2024 · 3.35 FIP	24	SP	3.35	24.6%	3.4%	3.5%	.307	4.18	22.7%	16.0%	281	+0.83	3.15	521	66
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	66
David Festa R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	28.9%	8.7%	3.5%	.334	3.76	24.7%	17.5%	85	+0.09	3.67	405	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.8	97	26.9%	6.3%	1.41	3.75
Kenta Maeda ('25)	4.9	123	25.8%	7.0%	1.30	4.20
Dick Hughes ('66-'68, 5 WAR*)	1.5	102	24.1%*	7.1%*	1.51*	3.68*
Harvey Haddix ('52-'65, 34 WAR*)	11.2	160	25.7%*	6.3%*	1.17*	3.93*
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20
Domingo Germán ('24)	2.7	90	24.6%	7.6%	1.62	4.54
Ernie White ('40-'48, 7 WAR*)	2.4	82	25.4%*	8.8%*	1.25*	3.26*