Reed Trimble
LF Norfolk Tides| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AA/A+/A/ROK3 orgs | 255 | .263/.380/.459 | 6 | 29 | 74 | — | .198/.280/.337 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA/AA/A+2 orgs | 351 | .256/.340/.481 | 16 | 21 | 79 | — | .216/.280/.380 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA/A+/ROKBAL | 126 | .274/.374/.642 | 10 | 3 | 107 | — | .206/.277/.453 |
| 2027PROJ30% MLB | 27 | MLBBAL | 32 | .222/.285/.415 | 1 | 1 | 90 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ37% MLB | 28 | MLBBAL | 60 | .221/.284/.410 | 2 | 2 | 89 | -0.0 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 76 | 65 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 169 | 280 | 185 | 465 | 15 | 244 | 28 | 12 | 228 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Orioles Orange | — | 18 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 333 | 444 | 400 | 844 | 67 | 455 | 22 | 17 | 389 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 133 | 117 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 28 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 291 | 362 | 393 | 755 | 103 | 356 | 21 | 10 | 334 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 56 | 45 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 244 | 382 | 333 | 715 | 89 | 423 | 36 | 16 | 330 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 57 | 48 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 167 | 298 | 250 | 548 | 83 | 229 | 23 | 14 | 264 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 25 | 23 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 348 | 400 | 609 | 1.009 | 261 | 412 | 20 | 4 | 439 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 194 | 161 | 41 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 35 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 255 | 366 | 466 | 832 | 211 | 290 | 18 | 15 | 362 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 20 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 278 | 316 | 333 | 649 | 56 | 357 | 25 | 5 | 280 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | ROK | FCL Orioles | — | 16 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 143 | 600 | 143 | 743 | 167 | 12 | 50 | 405 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 119 | 108 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 32 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 259 | 322 | 435 | 757 | 176 | 319 | 27 | 8 | 334 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | — | 217 | 187 | 48 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 22 | 47 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 257 | 353 | 503 | 856 | 246 | 290 | 22 | 10 | 372 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 15 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 286 | 538 | 824 | 308 | 200 | 20 | 7 | 331 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 64 | 55 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 24 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 236 | 333 | 600 | 933 | 364 | 296 | 38 | 11 | 392 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | A+ | Frederick Keys | — | 41 | 35 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 375 | 771 | 1.146 | 486 | 217 | 20 | 12 | 468 | 139 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | ROK | FCL Orioles | — | 21 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 375 | 500 | 500 | 1.000 | 125 | 429 | 14 | 14 | 429 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 76 | 68 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 147 | 227 | 162 | 388 | 15 | 220 | 37 | 8 | 176 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles Orange | — | 18 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 250 | 333 | 312 | 646 | 62 | 358 | 33 | 11 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 133 | 121 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 36 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 256 | 308 | 322 | 630 | 66 | 340 | 27 | 7 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 57 | 51 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 137 | 228 | 216 | 444 | 78 | 192 | 30 | 9 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 25 | 23 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 304 | 360 | 522 | 882 | 217 | 366 | 24 | 4 | 340 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 194 | 174 | 32 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 46 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 184 | 257 | 333 | 590 | 149 | 224 | 24 | 9 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 20 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 278 | 316 | 333 | 649 | 56 | 308 | 35 | 5 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 16 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 100 | 400 | 100 | 500 | 140 | 19 | 31 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 119 | 111 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 40 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 216 | 263 | 351 | 614 | 135 | 292 | 34 | 5 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Chesapeake Baysox | — | 217 | 195 | 42 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 55 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 215 | 288 | 385 | 673 | 169 | 265 | 25 | 6 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 15 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 286 | 538 | 824 | 308 | 157 | 27 | 7 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 64 | 58 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 172 | 238 | 397 | 635 | 224 | 257 | 45 | 6 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 41 | 37 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 243 | 300 | 622 | 922 | 378 | 170 | 24 | 7 | 373 | 139 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 21 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 235 | 350 | 294 | 644 | 59 | 319 | 19 | 10 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 94 | 84 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 155 | 237 | 167 | 403 | 12 | 255 | 36 | 9 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 94 | 80 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 25 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 200 | 312 | 225 | 537 | 25 | 286 | 27 | 13 | 259 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 189 | 171 | 45 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 51 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 263 | 319 | 339 | 658 | 76 | 352 | 27 | 7 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 189 | 162 | 45 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 48 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 278 | 368 | 377 | 744 | 99 | 371 | 25 | 12 | 333 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 57 | 51 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 137 | 228 | 216 | 444 | 78 | 206 | 30 | 9 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ RAW | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 57 | 48 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 167 | 298 | 250 | 548 | 83 | 229 | 23 | 14 | 264 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 255 | 225 | 45 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 62 | 1 | 29 | 0 | 200 | 280 | 342 | 622 | 142 | 245 | 24 | 9 | 277 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ RAW | 4 teams | — | 255 | 209 | 55 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 39 | 47 | 1 | 29 | 0 | 263 | 380 | 459 | 839 | 196 | 304 | 18 | 15 | 366 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 351 | 319 | 70 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 99 | 7 | 21 | 0 | 219 | 282 | 382 | 665 | 163 | 278 | 28 | 6 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 351 | 308 | 79 | 13 | 4 | 16 | 32 | 82 | 7 | 21 | 0 | 256 | 340 | 481 | 821 | 224 | 296 | 23 | 9 | 358 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 126 | 112 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 44 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 214 | 285 | 491 | 776 | 277 | 254 | 35 | 7 | 326 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 126 | 106 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 15 | 35 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 274 | 374 | 642 | 1.015 | 368 | 297 | 28 | 12 | 423 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 94 | 85 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 153 | 237 | 165 | 401 | 12 | 246 | 36 | 9 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 189 | 173 | 45 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 51 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 260 | 319 | 335 | 654 | 75 | 340 | 27 | 7 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 57 | 51 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 137 | 228 | 216 | 444 | 78 | 192 | 30 | 9 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 255 | 228 | 45 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 62 | 1 | 29 | 0 | 197 | 280 | 338 | 618 | 140 | 239 | 24 | 9 | 277 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 351 | 320 | 70 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 99 | 7 | 21 | 0 | 219 | 282 | 381 | 664 | 162 | 270 | 28 | 6 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 126 | 114 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 44 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 211 | 285 | 482 | 767 | 272 | 239 | 35 | 7 | 326 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 255 | 228 | 45 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 62 | 1 | 29 | 0 | 197 | 280 | 338 | 618 | 140 | 239 | 24 | 9 | 277 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 351 | 320 | 70 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 99 | 7 | 21 | 0 | 219 | 282 | 381 | 664 | 162 | 270 | 28 | 6 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 126 | 114 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 44 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 211 | 285 | 482 | 767 | 272 | 239 | 35 | 7 | 326 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | BAL | 30% | 200 | 182 | 41 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 56 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 218 | 281 | 403 | 684 | 186 | 267 | 28 | 6 | 301 | 90 | -2 | +1 | -0 | -2 | +4 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | BAL | 30% | 32 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 222 | 285 | 415 | 699 | 193 | 271 | 28 | 6 | 307 | 90 | -0 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | BAL | 37% | 161 | 147 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 45 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 217 | 280 | 399 | 679 | 182 | 267 | 28 | 7 | 300 | 89 | -2 | +1 | -1 | -2 | +3 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | BAL | 37% | 60 | 55 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 221 | 284 | 410 | 694 | 189 | 271 | 28 | 7 | 305 | 89 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 60 | 55 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 200 | 267 | 345 | 612 | 145 | 250 | 28 | 7 | 305 | 76 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +1 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 596 | 120 | 22 | 0 | 22 | 43 | 184 | 11 | 22 | 0 | 201 | 268 | 349 | 617 | 148 | 251 | 28 | 7 | 305 | 76 | -9 | +4 | -4 | -7 | +14 | -0.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1338 | 1204 | 257 | 49 | 10 | 36 | 98 | 382 | 17 | 76 | 1 | 213 | 282 | 360 | 642 | 147 | 275 | 29 | 7 | 281 | 76 | -3 | +2 | -1 | -3 | +6 | 0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 585 | 125 | 24 | 5 | 17 | 48 | 186 | 8 | 37 | 0 | 214 | 282 | 359 | 641 | 145 | 276 | 29 | 7 | 281 | 76 | -8 | +4 | -3 | -7 | +14 | 0.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAANorfolk Tides · 64 PAwOBA .382 → .295 (−87)K% 37.5% → 45.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.50% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 45.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 6.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.56% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.90% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 12.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.68% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 8.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 3.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 16.13% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 11.49% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .382 → .295; ISO .364 → .268; BABIP .296 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Frederick Keys · 41 PAwOBA .465 → .373 (−92)K% 19.5% → 25.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.51% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 25.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.968 | 7.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.968 | 9.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 5.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 18.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.968 | 15.77% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .465 → .373; ISO .486 → .418; BABIP .217 → .170. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKFCL Orioles · 21 PAwOBA .440 → .326 (−114)K% 14.3% → 20.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 20.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 8.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.76% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 3.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.77% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 23.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 15.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 10.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .440 → .326; ISO .125 → .093; BABIP .429 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAChesapeake Baysox · 217 PAwOBA .361 → .297 (−64)K% 21.7% → 25.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.66% | ÷1.044 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.22% | ÷0.987 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 6.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.76% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 2.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.57% | ÷0.957 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 17.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.71% | ÷0.970 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 4.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.86% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 2.86% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.248 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 4.45% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 91, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 109, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .361 → .297; ISO .246 → .182; BABIP .290 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 119 PAwOBA .328 → .265 (−63)K% 26.9% → 33.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.89% | ÷0.967 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.56% | ÷1.063 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.84% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.959 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 23.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.978 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 4.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.58% | ÷0.945 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 5.03% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 92, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 93, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .328 → .265; ISO .176 → .130; BABIP .319 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 15 PAwOBA .344 → .263 (−81)K% 20.0% → 25.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.013 | ×1.310 | — | — | 25.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.67% | ÷0.944 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 4.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.990 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 8.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.010 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 7.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.091 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.229 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 7.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 98, 2B 102, 3B 118, K 103, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .344 → .263; ISO .308 → .231; BABIP .200 → .157. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 194 PAwOBA .357 → .271 (−86)K% 18.0% → 23.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.04% | ÷0.993 | ×1.310 | — | — | 23.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.43% | ÷0.947 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.988 | 9.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.87% | ÷1.048 | ×0.870 | ×0.969 | ×0.988 | 12.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.32% | ÷0.980 | ×0.780 | ×0.969 | ×0.988 | 7.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.38% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.969 | ×0.988 | 1.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.97% | ÷1.026 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 3.36% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 110, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 99, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .357 → .271; ISO .211 → .173; BABIP .290 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AABowie Baysox · 25 PAwOBA .427 → .340 (−87)K% 20.0% → 25.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.970 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.00% | ÷1.028 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 2.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 3.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.008 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.012 | 21.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.062 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 13.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.135 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.249 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 3.51% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 102, 2B 112, 3B 127, K 94, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .427 → .340; ISO .261 → .181; BABIP .412 → .366. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).