Duce Gourson

2B Altoona Curve
Age 24 L/R 5'11" / 204 lbs AA HR -15%K -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036
OGV OFP35OGV rank#635ETA2029MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202421A+/APIT95.203/.379/.2700447—.165/.305/.217
202522AA/A+PIT392.275/.372/.439103185—.235/.310/.364
202623AAA/AAPIT541.247/.379/.396133885—.219/.321/.334
2027PROJMLE24MLBPIT4.217/.308/.33300850.0
2028PROJ39% MLB25MLBPIT101.220/.311/.34225880.2
2029PROJ56% MLB26MLBPIT262.222/.312/.348512900.5
Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$0.6M2034Arb-2$5M+1
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Speed85
BB%72
Max EV69
Chase%68
Z-Con%42
K%36
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 4.0, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 89%
CompsBrett Wisely (age 24) · Trey Sweeney (age 24) · Bradley Zimmer (age 24)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†85
AVG/OBP/SLG.217 / .308 / .333
PA4
HR0
K%25
BB%10
BABIP298
ISO120
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -3.7 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-4BATRUN: +1.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: -0.4 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: +0.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.50+0.5WAR
0.00.51.00.00.20.50.50.30.20.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.5$2M+$1.0M
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.3$0.9M+$0.3M
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.2$0.5M+$0.0M
2033Arb-1$0.6M———
2034Arb-2$5M———
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $3M $3M +$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202421 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers — 4739 7100 5113 21 179319205524 26250 2311 264 20 — — — — — —
202421 ABradenton Marauders — 4835 8400 10103 20 229438343780 114320 2121 374 74 — — — — — —
202522 AAAltoona Curve — 226197 561215 23615 101 284373431805 147386 2710 361 88 — — — — — —
202522 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers — 166138 36915 17287 212 261370449820 188292 1710 359 82 — — — — — —
202623 AAAIndianapolis Indians — 204173 48926 26513 94 277381457838 179359 2513 371 97 — — — — — —
202623 AAAltoona Curve — 337269 611407 548311 294 227377357734 130298 2516 340 78 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202421 A+ MLEGreensboro Grasshoppers — 4741 6100 3143 21 146255171426 24214 306 198 20 — — — — — —
202421 A MLEBradenton Marauders — 4838 7300 7143 20 184354263617 79269 2915 278 74 — — — — — —
202522 AA MLEAltoona Curve — 226204 501014 16795 101 245316363678 118370 357 298 88 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLEGreensboro Grasshoppers — 166145 32714 10377 212 221302366668 145256 226 289 82 — — — — — —
202623 AAA MLEIndianapolis Indians — 204180 44824 19613 94 244327378705 133338 309 311 97 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLEAltoona Curve — 337286 581206 3710111 294 203317308625 105282 3011 283 78 — — — — — —
202421 A MLE2 teams — 9579 13400 10286 41 165305215520 51255 2911 238 48 — — — — — —
202421 A RAW2 teams — 9574 15500 15216 41 203379270649 68283 2216 319 48 — — — — — —
202522 AA MLE2 teams — 392348 831729 2711612 313 239315376692 138329 307 294 85 — — — — — —
202522 AA RAW2 teams — 392335 9221210 408912 313 275372439811 164345 2310 360 85 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLE2 teams — 541466 10220210 5616214 388 219321335656 116310 3010 294 85 — — — — — —
202623 AA RAW2 teams — 541442 10923213 8013414 388 247379396775 149322 2515 352 85 — — — — — —
202421 A MLE2 teams — 9579 13400 10286 41 165305215520 51242 2911 238 48 — — — — — —
202522 AA MLE2 teams — 392350 831729 2711612 313 237315374690 137322 307 294 85 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLE2 teams — 541466 10220210 5616214 388 219321335656 116303 3010 294 85 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202421 A MLE2 teams — 9579 13400 10286 41 165305215520 51242 2911 238 48 — — — — — —
202522 AA MLE2 teams — 392350 831729 2711612 313 237315374690 137322 307 294 85 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLE2 teams — 541466 10220210 5616214 388 219321335656 116303 3010 294 85 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202724 MLB MLEPIT 2% 380334 711417 351098 173 218309336645 118297 299 294 85 -7 +2 -1 +1 +8 0.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202724 MLB CTXPIT 2% 44 1000 010 00 217308333641 115298 250 293 85 -0 +0 -0 +0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202825 MLB MLEPIT 39% 260228 511016 24746 122 221311347658 126297 289 299 88 -4 +2 -0 +1 +6 0.4
202926 MLB MLEPIT 56% 469412 9218211 4413210 214 223312352665 130297 289 301 90 -6 +3 -1 +2 +10 0.8
203027 MLB MLEPIT 62% 475418 9318211 4413310 214 223312353665 130296 289 301 90 -6 +3 -1 +2 +10 0.8
203128 MLB MLEPIT 65% 328289 641317 30916 133 222310351661 129295 289 300 89 -4 +1 -1 +1 +7 0.4
203229 MLB MLEPIT 64% 321282 621217 30896 112 221308348656 127294 289 297 87 -5 +1 -2 +1 +7 0.3
203330 MLB MLEPIT 64% 314276 611217 29886 92 218305341645 122292 289 293 84 -6 +1 -3 +1 +7 0.0
203431 MLB MLEPIT 64% 297263 561116 27855 61 214300331631 117289 299 287 81 -7 +1 -3 +1 +6 -0.2
202825 MLB CTXPIT 39% 10189 19402 9292 51 220311342653 122298 299 297 88 -1 +1 -0 +0 +2 0.2
202926 MLB CTXPIT 56% 262230 511115 25745 122 222312348659 126298 2810 299 90 -3 +2 -0 +1 +6 0.5
203027 MLB CTXPIT 62% 292257 571216 27826 133 222311348659 126297 289 299 90 -4 +1 -1 +1 +6 0.5
203128 MLB CTXPIT 65% 212186 42914 20594 82 222310347656 125296 289 298 89 -3 +1 -1 +1 +5 0.3
203229 MLB CTXPIT 64% 207182 40814 19584 71 221308344651 123295 289 296 87 -3 +1 -1 +1 +4 0.2
203330 MLB CTXPIT 64% 202178 39814 18574 61 218304336641 119293 289 291 84 -4 +1 -2 +1 +4 0.0
203431 MLB CTXPIT 64% 191169 37714 17553 41 214300327627 113290 299 286 81 -4 +0 -2 +1 +4 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 14671291 28559629 13541428 5511 221308343651 122299 289 296 86 -22 +7 -7 +5 +32 1.5
/ 162G— A+C — 650572 12726313 6018312 245 222309346655 124301 289 296 86 -10 +3 -3 +2 +14 0.6
Career— MLE — 37023244 7171431478 341105886 17632 221312346658 125301 299 295 86 -40 +13 -12 +10 +58 2.8
/ 162G— MLE — 650570 12625214 6018615 316 221312346657 125300 299 295 86 -10 +3 -3 +2 +14 0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAltoona Curve · 337 PAwOBA .332 → .283 (−49)K% 24.6% → 30.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.63%÷1.000×1.220——30.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.43%÷1.000×0.700—×1.01210.93%
HBP% /PA3.26%—×0.850—×1.0122.81%
Singles /BIP21.51%÷1.000×0.970×0.998×1.01221.08%
Doubles /BIP7.53%÷1.000×0.860×0.998×1.0126.54%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.950×0.998×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP3.76%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0122.97%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.

Result: wOBA .332 → .283; ISO .130 → .109; BABIP .298 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 204 PAwOBA .363 → .311 (−53)K% 25.0% → 30.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.00%÷1.000×1.200——30.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.75%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0489.22%
HBP% /PA1.47%—×0.940—×1.0481.45%
Singles /BIP25.41%÷1.000×0.930×0.999×1.04824.74%
Doubles /BIP7.38%÷1.000×0.830×0.999×1.0486.41%
Triples /BIP1.64%÷1.000×0.970×0.999×1.0481.67%
Home runs /BIP4.92%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0483.61%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .363 → .311; ISO .179 → .144; BABIP .359 → .338. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAltoona Curve · 226 PAwOBA .353 → .298 (−55)K% 27.0% → 34.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.99%÷0.947×1.220——34.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.18%÷1.033×0.700—×1.0277.08%
HBP% /PA2.21%—×0.850—×1.0271.93%
Singles /BIP27.94%÷1.024×0.970×1.021×1.02727.75%
Doubles /BIP8.82%÷1.036×0.860×1.021×1.0277.68%
Triples /BIP0.74%÷1.150×0.950×1.021×1.0270.64%
Home runs /BIP3.68%÷0.891×0.780—×1.0273.31%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 105, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 89, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.

Result: wOBA .353 → .298; ISO .147 → .122; BABIP .386 → .370. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 166 PAwOBA .352 → .289 (−63)K% 16.9% → 22.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.87%÷0.994×1.310——22.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.24%÷0.980×0.600—×0.9986.26%
HBP% /PA4.22%—×0.770—×0.9983.24%
Singles /BIP19.09%÷0.950×0.870×1.010×0.99817.63%
Doubles /BIP8.18%÷0.998×0.780×1.010×0.9986.44%
Triples /BIP0.91%÷1.025×0.850×1.010×0.9980.76%
Home runs /BIP4.55%÷1.048×0.880—×0.9983.81%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 90, 2B 100, 3B 105, K 99, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.

Result: wOBA .352 → .289; ISO .188 → .159; BABIP .292 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ABradenton Marauders · 48 PAwOBA .366 → .278 (−88)K% 20.8% → 29.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.83%÷0.975×1.360——29.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA20.83%÷1.010×0.690——14.23%
HBP% /PA6.25%—×0.780——4.88%
Singles /BIP16.00%÷0.977×0.920——15.07%
Doubles /BIP16.00%÷1.124×0.830——11.81%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.052×0.910——0.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.046×0.800——0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 95, 2B 125, 3B 110, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .366 → .278; ISO .114 → .084; BABIP .320 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 47 PAwOBA .258 → .198 (−60)K% 23.4% → 29.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.40%÷1.029×1.310——29.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.64%÷0.974×0.600—×1.0126.63%
HBP% /PA6.38%—×0.770—×1.0124.97%
Singles /BIP21.43%÷1.024×0.870—×1.01218.43%
Doubles /BIP3.57%÷0.950×0.780—×1.0122.97%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.850—×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.106×0.880—×1.0120.00%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 105, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 106, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .258 → .198; ISO .026 → .021; BABIP .250 → .214. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).