Duce Gourson — OGILVIE

Duce Gourson2B Altoona Curve

Age 23 L/R 5'11" / 204 lbs AA HR -15%K -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION510 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†83

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP295

ISO117

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$29M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 52 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT52

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE56

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

DEFENSE47

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2032	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-2	$4M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$3M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$12M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	21	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	47	39	7	1	0	0	5	11	3	2	1	179	319	205	524	26	250	23	11	264	65	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2024	21	A	Bradenton Marauders	—	48	35	8	4	0	0	10	10	3	2	0	229	438	343	780	114	320	21	21	374	139	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2025	22	AA	Altoona Curve	—	226	197	56	12	1	5	23	61	5	10	1	284	373	431	805	147	386	27	10	361	130	+8	+2	—	—	+5	1.5
2025	22	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	166	138	36	9	1	5	17	28	7	21	2	261	370	449	820	188	292	17	10	359	129	+6	+3	—	—	+4	1.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	21	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	47	41	6	1	0	0	3	14	3	2	1	146	255	171	426	24	223	30	6	205	25	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2024	21	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	48	38	6	3	0	0	7	15	3	2	0	158	333	237	570	79	287	31	15	295	86	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2025	22	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	226	205	48	10	1	4	15	79	5	10	1	234	302	351	653	117	352	35	7	287	80	-5	+2	—	—	+5	0.1
2025	22	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	166	144	34	8	1	4	11	38	7	21	2	236	321	389	710	153	270	23	7	297	87	-3	+3	—	—	+4	0.5
2024	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	95	78	13	4	0	0	11	29	6	4	1	167	316	218	534	51	265	31	12	250	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	95	74	15	5	0	0	15	21	6	4	1	203	379	270	649	68	283	22	16	319	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	392	348	81	17	2	8	27	116	12	31	3	233	310	362	672	129	323	30	7	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	392	335	92	21	2	10	40	89	12	31	3	275	372	439	811	164	345	23	10	360	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	95	78	13	4	0	0	11	29	6	4	1	167	316	218	534	51	255	31	12	250	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	392	350	81	17	2	8	27	116	12	31	3	231	310	360	670	129	317	30	7	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	95	78	13	4	0	0	11	29	6	4	1	167	316	218	534	51	255	31	12	250	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	392	350	81	17	2	8	27	116	12	31	3	231	310	360	670	129	317	30	7	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	PIT	—	510	440	93	19	2	8	51	151	14	37	8	211	313	318	631	107	299	30	10	281	77	-14	+4	+0	+2	+11	0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA RAW	PIT	—	337	269	61	14	0	7	54	83	11	29	4	227	377	357	734	130	298	25	16	340	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	AAA RAW	PIT	—	173	146	40	8	2	3	22	42	3	8	4	274	380	418	798	144	363	24	13	357	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	23	AA MLE	PIT	2%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	125	222	125	347		297	33	11	292	83	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	23	AA MLE	PIT	—	519	448	94	19	2	8	52	154	14	38	8	210	311	315	626	105	298	30	10	282	77	-14	+4	-0	+2	+11	0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	PIT	43%	443	389	87	18	2	9	41	123	10	23	4	224	314	350	663	126	296	28	9	298	88	-6	+3	-1	+2	+10	0.8
2028	25	MLB MLE	PIT	62%	557	488	109	22	2	12	52	152	12	29	6	223	313	350	664	127	296	27	9	303	91	-6	+3	-1	+2	+12	1.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	PIT	71%	562	492	112	23	2	13	53	151	12	29	6	228	318	362	680	134	296	27	9	306	93	-5	+3	-1	+2	+12	1.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	PIT	74%	561	491	110	22	2	13	53	151	12	29	6	224	315	356	671	132	296	27	9	306	93	-4	+3	-1	+2	+12	1.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	PIT	75%	556	486	110	22	2	13	53	150	12	27	5	226	318	360	678	134	295	27	10	305	93	-5	+3	-1	+2	+12	1.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	PIT	74%	549	479	107	22	2	12	53	150	12	25	5	223	316	353	669	129	295	27	10	304	92	-5	+3	-2	+2	+12	1.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	PIT	73%	541	472	105	21	2	12	52	149	12	22	4	222	315	352	667	129	294	28	10	301	90	-6	+3	-3	+2	+12	0.7
2034	31	MLB MLE	PIT	72%	459	402	88	18	1	10	44	128	10	17	3	219	311	343	655	124	292	28	10	297	87	-7	+2	-3	+2	+10	0.4
2035	32	MLB MLE	PIT	79%	441	387	82	16	1	9	42	124	9	13	3	212	304	328	632	116	289	28	10	292	84	-8	+1	-4	+2	+10	-0.0
2036	33	MLB MLE	PIT	83%	412	361	76	15	1	8	39	118	9	10	2	211	303	324	627	114	285	29	9	286	79	-10	+1	-5	+1	+9	-0.3
2037	34	MLB MLE	PIT	78%	367	322	64	12	1	6	35	108	7	6	1	199	291	298	589	99	279	29	10	277	74	-11	+1	-5	+1	+8	-0.7
2027	24	MLB CTX	PIT	43%	191	167	38	8	1	4	18	53	4	10	2	228	317	359	677	132	294	28	9	277	88	-3	+1	-0	+1	+4	0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	PIT	62%	348	305	67	14	1	7	32	95	8	18	4	220	310	341	651	121	294	27	9	283	91	-4	+2	-0	+1	+8	0.7
2029	26	MLB CTX	PIT	71%	401	351	79	16	2	9	38	108	9	21	4	225	317	359	676	134	293	27	9	285	93	-3	+3	-1	+1	+9	0.9
2030	27	MLB CTX	PIT	74%	413	362	81	16	2	9	39	111	9	21	4	224	315	354	668	130	293	27	9	286	93	-3	+3	-1	+1	+9	0.9
2031	28	MLB CTX	PIT	75%	416	364	81	16	2	9	40	112	9	21	4	223	315	352	666	129	293	27	10	285	93	-4	+3	-1	+1	+9	0.9
2032	29	MLB CTX	PIT	74%	404	353	77	16	1	8	39	110	9	19	4	218	312	337	649	119	292	27	10	284	92	-4	+2	-2	+1	+9	0.7
2033	30	MLB CTX	PIT	73%	394	345	75	15	1	8	38	108	8	16	3	217	309	336	646	119	291	27	10	281	90	-5	+2	-2	+1	+9	0.5
2034	31	MLB CTX	PIT	72%	332	290	62	13	1	6	32	92	7	12	2	214	307	328	635	114	289	28	10	278	87	-5	+2	-2	+1	+7	0.3
2035	32	MLB CTX	PIT	79%	347	304	64	13	1	6	33	98	7	10	2	211	302	319	621	109	286	28	10	273	84	-7	+1	-3	+1	+8	0.0
2036	33	MLB CTX	PIT	83%	341	298	62	12	1	6	33	98	7	8	2	208	302	315	617	107	282	29	10	267	79	-8	+1	-4	+1	+7	-0.3
2037	34	MLB CTX	PIT	78%	287	252	50	9	1	5	27	84	6	5	1	198	291	302	593	103	277	29	9	259	74	-9	+1	-4	+1	+6	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3874	3391	736	148	14	77	369	1069	83	161	32	217	309	337	646	120	291	28	10	279	88	-54	+19	-20	+14	+84	4.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	569	123	25	2	13	62	179	14	27	5	216	309	336	644	120	289	28	10	279	88	-9	+3	-3	+2	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	5944	5203	1145	232	20	125	556	1652	135	266	49	220	312	344	656	124	295	28	9	298	88	-75	+28	-26	+19	+118	6.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	569	125	25	2	14	61	181	15	29	5	220	312	344	656	125	294	28	9	298	88	-9	+3	-3	+2	+14	0.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jonathan Villarlast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,934 PA	5.9	3,934	101	239	255	322	397	+24	-40	12.8	13.9
/162	664	17	40	+4.0	-6.8	2.2	pk7: 15
#2Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	4.7	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
/162	664	19	34	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
#3Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#4Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	5.8	3,880	83	161	221	309	347	+39	-8	10.9	10.0
/162	664	14	28	+6.8	-1.3	1.9	pk7: 9
#5Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#6Everth Cabreralast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,059 PA	3.1	2,059	12	136	247	316	328	+22	-1	5.1	5.1
/162	664	4	44	+7.1	-0.5	1.6	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Duce Gourson (OGILVIE)	23	52	45	50	56	213/307/324	110	297	5	20	29%	9%	83	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ji Hwan Bae 2022 · AA	23	50→52	41→45	54→60	44	235/294/339	105	321	8	22	28%	7%	80	-0.2	242/301/345	103	318	7	29	24%	7%	84	+0.1	247/309/346	99	324	6	33	24%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Bradley Zimmer 2016 · AA	23	46→51	46→50	58→60	41	227/295/358	132	315	14	28	31%	6%	86	+0.3	225/295/359	134	338	13	28	35%	8%	86	+0.3	229/307/355	126	348	13	28	35%	8%	87	+0.2
●Brice Turang 2023 · AAA	23	50→59	41→50	56→60	48	240/298/337	96	303	9	23	23%	8%	80	-0.1	247/309/352	105	305	10	31	21%	8%	88	+0.5	266/344/401	135	328	13	29	21%	10%	110	+2.1
✕Tyson Gillies 2012 · AA	23	54→64	41→45	53→55	45	257/314/361	104	319	8	19	22%	6%	92	+0.7	234/282/338	104	310	7	14	26%	4%	75	-0.5	230/276/332	102	306	7	15	26%	4%	68	-0.5
✕Brett Wisely 2023 · AAA	24	47→50	48→50	55	46	234/298/377	143	301	16	24	27%	8%	91	+0.6	226/293/350	124	292	12	15	25%	8%	82	+0.0	225/293/333	108	284	10	17	23%	8%	76	-0.3
✕Eliezer Álvarez 2018 · AA	23	52→61	41→45	51→55	42	245/299/354	109	332	7	18	27%	6%	85	+0.2	204/261/308	104	312	9	18	35%	7%	60	-1.6	186/245/285	100	287	9	20	37%	7%	47	-1.8
✕Garin Cecchini 2014 · AA	23	58→63	41→45	56→55	51	270/342/381	111	342	6	21	22%	9%	107	+1.8	229/286/316	87	300	6	13	24%	7%	72	-0.7	211/261/284	74	274	6	12	24%	5%	53	-1.7
✕Ryan Kalish 2011 · MLB	23	49→51	47→50	57→55	48	245/304/382	137	296	14	23	22%	8%	94	+0.9	228/283/336	108	294	10	21	25%	7%	75	-0.5	214/261/305	91	289	8	20	27%	6%	56	-1.1
●Garrett Mitchell 2022 · AA	23	47→57	44→50	56→60	49	222/307/338	116	329	13	20	34%	11%	85	+0.2	242/313/377	135	355	13	26	33%	9%	96	+1.0	258/343/433	175	366	17	22	31%	11%	117	+1.2
✕Canaan Smith-Njigba 2022 · AAA	23	49→50	43→45	53→55	48	232/307/345	113	328	11	15	30%	10%	86	+0.3	224/293/335	111	332	8	18	32%	9%	79	-0.2	212/284/322	110	316	7	20	32%	9%	69	-0.5
✕Eric Patterson 2006 · AA	23	53→55	46→50	58→60	45	255/310/394	140	331	11	23	26%	7%	98	+1.2	244/293/368	124	305	10	27	22%	6%	86	+0.3	245/299/370	126	301	11	31	22%	7%	87	+0.3
✕Brett Jackson 2011 · AA	22	50→51	46→50	57→55	46	238/312/380	142	332	11	20	30%	8%	96	+1.0	209/282/355	146	326	14	19	37%	9%	80	-0.2	189/264/331	142	306	15	19	40%	8%	66	-1.0
✕Jordany Valdespin 2012 · AAA	24	51→54	44→50	51→55	38	251/280/375	124	303	11	23	22%	3%	82	+0.0	247/294/386	139	285	15	23	19%	5%	91	+0.6	243/300/383	140	270	17	24	17%	7%	91	+0.3
●Andrés Giménez 2022 · MLB	23	47→57	47→50	55	39	234/289/371	137	296	14	23	26%	5%	86	+0.3	262/325/407	145	310	15	24	20%	5%	107	+1.9	262/324/395	133	304	14	27	18%	5%	101	+1.4
✕Akil Baddoo 2023 · MLB	24	50→53	46→50	54→55	51	242/318/379	137	318	12	22	26%	10%	98	+1.2	220/299/368	148	290	15	25	27%	10%	89	+0.5	211/293/366	155	276	16	28	28%	10%	83	+0.1
✕Roman Quinn 2016 · AA	23	51→55	41→45	59→65	43	244/297/344	100	315	9	34	25%	6%	82	-0.0	245/299/348	103	333	6	35	26%	6%	83	+0.1	245/301/378	133	333	11	48	28%	7%	89	+0.2
✕Jack Blomgren 2023 · AA	24	52	40	55→60	45	239/320/336	97	346	6	23	30%	8%	90	+0.6	217/297/325	108	316	10	20	32%	8%	79	-0.2	185/266/286	101	252	7	30	28%	8%	57	-0.4
●Maikel Garcia 2023 · MLB	23	51→58	41→50	57→60	48	245/302/348	103	308	7	27	22%	8%	84	+0.2	253/310/363	110	308	8	26	19%	8%	91	+0.6	261/321/393	132	295	10	24	15%	8%	100	+1.2
✕Rey Fuentes 2014 · MLB	23	52→62	39→40	57→60	43	245/300/333	87	331	6	29	27%	6%	80	-0.1	256/303/345	89	333	7	29	24%	6%	84	+0.1	258/302/336	78	335	5	31	23%	5%	79	-0.1
●Tyler Bortnick 2011 · A	24	50→60	42→45	52→55	51	242/316/354	113	296	8	22	21%	9%	92	+0.7	245/326/349	104	301	5	24	19%	9%	95	+0.9	245/329/344	99	302	4	27	18%	9%	91	+0.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps