Duce Gourson — OGILVIE

Duce GoursonSS Altoona Curve

Age 23 L/R 5'11" / 204 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION337 act + 224 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†77

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .305 / .313

PA224

HR4

SB15

K%30

BB%9

BABIP291

ISO108

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 52 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT52

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE56

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

DEFENSE47

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.9	$12M	+$11M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.0	$12M	+$11M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.8	$10M	+$9M
2032	Arb-1	$3M	+1.6	$8M	+$6M
2033	Arb-2	$5M	+1.3	$6M	+$4M
2034	Arb-3	$5M	+1.0	$4M	+$2M
Totals		$16M		$52M	+$44M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	21	A	2 teams	—	95	78	13	4	0	0	11	29	6	4	1	167	316	218	534	51	265	31	12	246	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	2 teams	—	95	74	15	5	0	0	15	21	6	4	1	203	379	270	649	68	283	22	16	319	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA	2 teams	—	392	348	79	16	2	9	27	126	12	31	3	227	305	362	667	135	326	32	7	287	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA	2 teams	—	392	335	92	21	2	10	40	89	12	31	3	275	372	439	811	164	345	23	10	360	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	AA	PIT	—	337	287	55	12	0	6	36	107	11	29	4	192	305	296	602	105	278	32	11	277	70	-11	+4	+0	+4	+10	0.6
YTD	23	AA	PIT	—	337	269	61	14	0	7	54	83	11	29	4	227	377	357	734	130	298	25	16	340	118	+7	+4	+0	+4	+10	2.5
ROS	23	AA	PIT	2%	224	194	40	9	0	4	21	68	7	15	2	205	305	313	619	108	288	30	9	287	77	-6	+2	-0	+2	+6	0.5
ROS	23	MLB	PIT	2%	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						286	25	0	264	60	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	23	AA	PIT	—	341	291	55	12	0	6	36	108	11	29	4	189	302	292	594	103	274	32	11	277	70	-12	+4	-0	+4	+10	0.6
TOT	23	AA	PIT	—	561	481	95	21	0	10	57	175	18	44	6	197	305	303	609	106	284	31	10	281	73	-17	+6	-0	+6	+16	1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	PIT	43%	562	490	104	22	1	12	53	167	14	31	4	212	307	335	642	122	291	30	9	293	82	-11	+5	-1	+6	+16	1.5
2028	25	MLB	PIT	62%	577	504	108	22	1	13	54	167	14	32	4	214	308	339	647	125	291	29	9	298	86	-9	+5	-1	+6	+16	1.8
2029	26	MLB	PIT	71%	582	508	111	23	1	14	55	167	14	32	4	219	312	350	662	132	291	29	9	301	88	-8	+5	-1	+6	+16	1.9
2030	27	MLB	PIT	74%	581	507	111	23	1	14	55	166	14	32	4	219	312	351	664	132	291	29	9	301	89	-7	+5	-1	+6	+16	2.0
2031	28	MLB	PIT	75%	576	503	109	22	1	14	55	165	13	30	4	217	310	348	658	131	291	29	10	300	88	-8	+4	-1	+6	+16	1.8
2032	29	MLB	PIT	74%	569	496	107	22	1	13	55	164	13	28	4	216	310	343	653	127	290	29	10	299	87	-9	+4	-2	+6	+16	1.6
2033	30	MLB	PIT	73%	560	488	104	21	1	13	54	163	13	25	3	213	308	340	648	127	289	29	10	296	85	-10	+4	-3	+6	+16	1.3
2034	31	MLB	PIT	72%	551	480	102	21	1	12	53	162	13	21	3	212	308	335	643	123	287	29	10	292	82	-11	+3	-4	+6	+16	1.0
2035	32	MLB	PIT	79%	541	472	98	20	1	11	52	161	12	17	2	208	302	324	626	117	284	30	10	287	78	-14	+3	-4	+6	+15	0.6
2036	33	MLB	PIT	83%	467	409	82	16	1	9	45	142	10	12	2	200	295	311	606	110	280	30	10	281	73	-14	+2	-5	+5	+13	0.1
2037	34	MLB	PIT	78%	395	345	68	13	1	7	38	122	9	7	1	197	293	301	595	104	274	31	10	272	67	-15	+1	-5	+4	+11	-0.4
2027	24	MLB	PIT	43%	243	212	45	9	1	5	23	72	6	13	2	212	307	335	642	123	289	30	9	273	67	-9	+2	-0	+3	+7	0.2
2028	25	MLB	PIT	62%	360	314	67	14	1	8	34	104	9	20	3	213	308	341	649	127	290	29	9	279	72	-11	+3	-0	+4	+10	0.5
2029	26	MLB	PIT	71%	416	364	79	16	1	10	39	119	10	23	3	217	310	349	659	132	290	29	9	282	74	-12	+3	-1	+4	+12	0.7
2030	27	MLB	PIT	74%	428	374	81	17	1	10	41	122	10	24	3	217	311	348	658	131	290	29	10	283	75	-12	+4	-1	+5	+12	0.8
2031	28	MLB	PIT	75%	431	377	81	17	1	10	41	124	10	23	3	215	308	345	653	130	289	29	10	282	74	-13	+3	-1	+5	+12	0.7
2032	29	MLB	PIT	74%	418	365	79	16	1	10	40	121	10	20	3	216	311	348	659	132	289	29	10	280	73	-13	+3	-2	+4	+12	0.5
2033	30	MLB	PIT	73%	408	357	75	15	1	9	39	119	9	18	2	210	304	333	637	123	288	29	10	278	71	-13	+3	-2	+4	+12	0.3
2034	31	MLB	PIT	72%	399	348	74	15	1	9	39	117	9	15	2	213	308	339	647	126	286	29	10	274	68	-14	+2	-3	+4	+11	0.1
2035	32	MLB	PIT	79%	425	371	76	15	1	9	41	127	10	13	2	205	301	323	624	119	283	30	10	269	64	-17	+2	-3	+5	+12	-0.2
2036	33	MLB	PIT	83%	387	338	68	13	1	8	37	117	9	10	1	201	297	317	613	115	279	30	10	263	60	-18	+2	-4	+4	+11	-0.5
2037	34	MLB	PIT	78%	309	270	52	10	0	6	29	96	7	6	1	193	288	296	584	104	273	31	9	255	54	-16	+1	-4	+3	+9	-0.8
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4228	3694	777	157	10	94	403	1239	99	185	25	210	305	335	639	124	287	29	10	275	69	-149	+27	-21	+45	+120	2.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	568	119	24	2	14	62	190	15	28	4	210	304	333	637	123	286	29	10	275	69	-23	+4	-3	+7	+18	0.3
Career	—			—	6672	5822	1236	254	13	145	628	1969	164	317	41	212	307	335	642	123	292	30	9	292	82	-136	+47	-28	+71	+189	14.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	567	120	25	1	14	61	192	16	31	4	212	305	333	639	122	291	30	9	292	82	-13	+5	-3	+7	+18	1.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	21	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	47	39	7	1	0	0	5	11	3	2	1	179	319	205	524	26	250	23	11	264	60	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2024	21	A	Bradenton Marauders	—	48	35	8	4	0	0	10	10	3	2	0	229	438	343	780	114	320	21	21	374	144	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2025	22	AA	Altoona Curve	—	226	197	56	12	1	5	23	61	5	10	1	284	373	431	805	147	386	27	10	361	134	+9	+2	—	—	+6	1.7
2025	22	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	166	138	36	9	1	5	17	28	7	21	2	261	370	449	820	188	292	17	10	359	133	+6	+3	—	—	+5	1.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1B.J. Uptonlast yr '16 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,858 PA	12	5,858	164	300	243	321	402	+14	+17	24.5	24.5
	/162	664	19	34	243	321	402	+1.6	+2.0	2.8	pk7: 25
#2Jonathan Villarlast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,934 PA	10	3,934	101	239	255	322	397	+24	-40	12.8	13.9
	/162	664	17	40	255	322	397	+4.0	-6.8	2.2	pk7: 15
#3Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	8	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
	/162	664	19	34	244	314	394	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
#4Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#5Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	4,229	95	185	213	304	338	+43	-8	10.1	9.3
	/162	664	15	29	213	304	338	+6.8	-1.2	1.6	pk7: 9
#6Everth Cabreralast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,059 PA	6	2,059	12	136	247	316	328	+22	-1	5.1	5.1
	/162	664	4	44	247	316	328	+7.1	-0.5	1.6	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Duce Gourson (OGILVIE)	23	52	45	50	56	197/305/303	106	284	10	44	31%	10%	73	+1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ji Hwan Bae 2022 · AA	23	48→51	42→45	54→60	43	229/288/341	112	317	9	22	29%	7%	76	+0.0	238/296/347	109	313	8	29	25%	7%	80	+0.4	240/313/341	101	332	7	39	27%	9%	83	+0.3
✕Bradley Zimmer 2016 · AA	23	47→51	48→50	58→60	41	229/298/369	140	315	15	28	31%	6%	88	+0.9	224/295/363	139	339	14	28	35%	8%	85	+0.7	231/308/356	126	350	13	28	35%	8%	86	+0.4
✕Brett Wisely 2023 · AAA	24	47→51	49→50	55	46	237/301/388	152	305	17	24	28%	8%	94	+1.3	230/296/357	127	295	12	15	25%	8%	83	+0.6	231/293/342	111	293	10	15	23%	7%	76	+0.0
●Brice Turang 2023 · AAA	23	50→60	43→50	56→60	47	243/300/350	107	307	11	23	24%	8%	82	+0.5	250/312/363	113	307	11	31	21%	8%	91	+1.1	270/345/412	142	330	14	32	21%	10%	114	+2.5
✕Eliezer Álvarez 2018 · AA	23	52→62	41→45	51→55	42	244/299/351	107	333	6	18	27%	6%	82	+0.5	196/253/297	101	319	9	18	38%	7%	49	-1.8	175/234/270	95	292	9	20	41%	7%	31	-2.2
✕Ryan Kalish 2011 · MLB	23	49→51	48→50	57→55	47	244/304/388	144	295	15	23	23%	8%	94	+1.3	227/282/337	110	293	11	21	25%	7%	72	-0.2	212/256/305	93	285	8	20	28%	5%	48	-1.0
✕Eric Patterson 2006 · AA	23	53→55	46→50	58→60	45	254/310/394	140	331	11	23	26%	7%	98	+1.6	244/293/369	125	306	11	27	23%	6%	84	+0.6	245/299/370	126	301	11	31	22%	7%	85	+0.7
✕Brett Jackson 2011 · AA	22	49	45→50	57→55	46	231/307/368	137	327	11	20	31%	9%	91	+1.1	206/279/356	150	326	16	19	38%	9%	76	+0.1	186/261/335	149	304	16	19	41%	8%	61	-0.8
✕Canaan Smith-Njigba 2022 · AAA	23	48→49	45	53→55	47	229/302/351	122	328	12	15	32%	9%	85	+0.7	220/288/337	117	329	9	18	33%	9%	74	-0.1	208/277/322	114	312	8	20	33%	9%	63	-0.5
✕Rey Fuentes 2014 · MLB	23	52→62	40	56→60	41	243/296/337	94	333	7	29	28%	6%	77	+0.1	257/302/347	90	337	7	29	24%	5%	82	+0.5	260/303/338	78	339	5	31	24%	5%	77	+0.1
✕Tyson Gillies 2012 · AA	23	54→64	41→45	53→55	44	257/314/360	103	321	8	19	22%	6%	91	+1.1	234/283/340	106	315	7	14	27%	5%	72	-0.2	230/277/336	106	310	8	15	27%	4%	65	-0.4
✕Eguy Rosario 2023 · AAA	23	43→52	48→50	51→55	43	216/280/358	142	286	15	21	29%	7%	77	+0.1	206/268/350	144	278	16	17	31%	7%	70	-0.3	187/250/330	143	255	17	17	33%	7%	55	-0.7
✕Roman Quinn 2016 · AA	23	52→53	42→45	59→65	44	248/302/351	103	319	9	34	24%	6%	83	+0.6	240/294/342	102	333	7	35	28%	6%	77	+0.1	244/301/381	137	331	12	48	28%	7%	88	+0.3
✕Elliot Johnson 2007 · AA	23	48→53	46→45	54→60	39	235/276/368	133	312	13	21	29%	5%	77	+0.1	215/261/340	125	292	12	16	30%	5%	63	-0.8	234/287/347	113	305	11	30	26%	6%	73	-0.1
✕José Caballero 2021 · A	24	45	43→45	52→70	46	221/293/334	113	279	10	25	24%	7%	76	+0.1	224/326/350	126	288	13	35	25%	11%	95	+1.4	225/318/339	114	299	10	63	26%	9%	86	+0.5
✕Trey Sweeney 2023 · AA	23	39→43	48→50	57→55	46	198/276/341	142	266	15	19	30%	9%	71	-0.3	217/288/368	151	280	17	17	28%	8%	83	+0.6	218/288/372	154	276	19	17	27%	8%	81	+0.3
●Jordany Valdespin 2012 · AAA	24	51→53	45→50	51→55	38	250/279/378	128	304	12	23	22%	3%	81	+0.4	248/294/390	142	286	16	23	19%	5%	91	+1.1	244/301/388	143	271	17	24	17%	7%	91	+0.6
✕Shed Long Jr. 2019 · AA	23	47	48→50	51→50	44	234/296/376	142	314	15	13	30%	7%	88	+0.9	227/287/373	146	306	16	10	29%	7%	84	+0.6	221/280/371	150	293	17	8	30%	7%	77	+0.1
●Andrés Giménez 2022 · MLB	23	48→58	48→50	55	40	239/294/384	145	300	15	23	26%	5%	90	+1.0	262/324/407	145	309	15	24	20%	5%	108	+2.3	261/323/392	131	302	14	27	18%	5%	100	+1.7
✕Dru Baker 2023 · A	23	50→56	44→40	57→60	44	238/302/356	119	333	12	24	31%	8%	85	+0.7	237/290/323	86	341	7	32	31%	6%	71	-0.3	231/281/299	68	334	5	31	31%	5%	57	-0.7