Tucker Novotny

P Lansing Lugnuts

Age 24 LHP 6'5" / 235 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	AOAK	30	9	78	3.82	2.87	29.0%	11.1%	—	K 21.5% · BB 13.1% · FIP 3.90
2026	23	A+OAK	31	7	75	4.32	3.71	26.0%	12.7%	—	K 20.0% · BB 14.6% · FIP 4.74
2027PROJ	24	MLBOAK	64	0	67	5.19	5.19	20.6%	14.9%	-0.5
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBOAK	29	0	30	5.00	4.93	21.3%	13.3%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBOAK	45	0	47	4.90	4.86	21.7%	12.9%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control35Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsMark Manfredi Sr. (age 24) · Matt Walker (age 24) · Braeden Fausnaught (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116124vR 132

ERA5.19

FIP5.19

K%20.6%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%5.8%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Stockton Ports	30	9	78	334	97	37	5	30%	2.6	21.5%	13.1%	8.4%	1.7%	3.82	3.90	—
2025	22	A MLE	Stockton Ports	30	9	78	334	97	37	5	30%	2.6	21.5%	13.1%	8.4%	1.7%	3.82	3.90	—
2025	22	A RAW	Stockton Ports	30	9	78	334	97	37	5	30%	2.6	29.0%	11.1%	18.0%	1.5%	3.82	2.87	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	31	7	75	323	84	41	7	23%	2.4	20.0%	14.6%	5.4%	2.7%	4.32	4.74	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	31	7	75	323	84	41	7	23%	2.4	20.0%	14.6%	5.4%	2.7%	4.32	4.74	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	31	7	75	323	84	41	7	23%	2.4	26.0%	12.7%	13.3%	2.2%	4.32	3.71	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	OAK	64	0	67	283	58	42	8	0%	1.0	20.6%	14.9%	5.8%	2.9%	5.19	5.19	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	OAK	67	0	71	299	64	40	9	0%	1.1	21.3%	13.3%	8.0%	2.9%	5.00	4.93	-0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	OAK	67	0	71	299	65	39	9	0%	1.1	21.7%	12.9%	8.7%	2.9%	4.90	4.86	-0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	OAK	66	0	70	294	64	38	9	0%	1.1	21.7%	12.8%	8.9%	2.9%	4.87	4.87	-0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	OAK	64	0	68	285	62	37	9	0%	1.1	21.7%	12.9%	8.8%	3.0%	4.91	4.94	-0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	OAK	62	0	65	273	58	36	9	0%	1.0	21.4%	13.1%	8.3%	3.2%	5.01	5.07	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	OAK	29	0	30	127	27	17	4	0%	1.0	21.3%	13.3%	8.0%	2.9%	5.00	4.93	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	OAK	45	0	47	198	43	26	6	0%	1.0	21.7%	12.9%	8.7%	2.9%	4.90	4.86	-0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	OAK	51	0	54	228	50	29	7	0%	1.1	21.7%	12.8%	8.9%	2.9%	4.87	4.87	-0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	OAK	54	0	57	241	52	31	7	0%	1.1	21.7%	12.9%	8.8%	3.0%	4.91	4.94	-0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	OAK	54	0	57	241	52	32	8	0%	1.1	21.4%	13.1%	8.3%	3.2%	5.01	5.07	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		233	0	245	1034	223	134	31	0%	1.1	21.6%	13.0%	8.6%	3.0%	4.93	4.56	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	182	109	25	0%	1.1	21.6%	13.0%	8.6%	3.0%	4.93	4.56	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		61	16	153	657	136	91	15	26%	2.5	20.8%	13.8%	6.9%	2.2%	4.07	4.32	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		80	21	200	861	179	119	19	26%	2.5	20.8%	13.8%	6.9%	2.2%	4.07	4.32	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tucker Novotny (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.19	20.6%	14.9%	2.9%	—	4.89	21.6%	8.6%	211	-0.30	—	—	—
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	87
Matt Walker L 2022 · 4.54 FIP	24	SW	4.54	17.7%	12.8%	2.4%	.338	4.73	12.7%	2.7%	41	+0.19	4.21	156	85
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	84
Larson Kindreich L 2023 · 5.29 FIP	24	SW	5.29	21.5%	18.8%	3.0%	.269	4.68	23.0%	9.0%	79	-0.61	4.16	214	82
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	79
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	79
Ty Madrigal L 2021 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.75	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.19	4.56	107	78
Randy Labaut L 2021 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	23.2%	14.0%	3.7%	.240	4.66	19.4%	5.9%	190	-0.29	1.91	302	78
Kelly Secrest L 2016 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	18.6%	13.7%	2.1%	.267	3.47	20.8%	10.4%	38	-0.95	3.11	151	78
Caden Monke L 2022 · 5.48 FIP	22	SU	5.48	18.9%	12.8%	4.3%	.323	5.38	19.0%	-0.3%	51	-0.10	4.35	164	77
Max Roberts L 2021 · 4.85 FIP	24	SW	4.85	19.3%	15.2%	2.6%	.330	4.62	24.5%	8.4%	115	-0.23	4.27	173	77
Matt Mikulski L 2023 · 6.17 FIP	24	SW	6.17	16.4%	18.6%	3.8%	.303	5.90	16.3%	-3.3%	78	-0.27	4.92	223	77
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.25	20.9%	9.7%	219	-0.35	2.32	362	76
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	76
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	76
Daniel Stumpf L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	24	SU	4.31	20.8%	11.5%	2.8%	.268	3.54	22.5%	15.3%	123	-0.77	1.84	238	76
Evan Shawver L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	24	SW	4.08	19.4%	15.3%	1.2%	.258	4.05	18.2%	9.0%	115	-0.03	3.79	281	76
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	75
Rio Britton L 2024 · 4.28 FIP	21	SU	4.28	19.2%	13.5%	2.0%	.354	5.03	22.4%	7.1%	98	+0.75	4.28	166	75
Brad Mills L 2010 · 4.22 FIP	25	SW	4.22	18.4%	12.2%	2.0%	.273	5.37	19.8%	7.7%	18	+1.15	4.22	243	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	68	21.4%	13.3%	1.14	4.98
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*