Jack Cebert

P Harrisburg Senators

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 209 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.7 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#794ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	A+NYY	5	0	6	2.84	4.21	44.0%	4.0%	—	K 44.0% · BB 4.0% · FIP 4.28
2026	24	MIX3 levels	24	20	109	4.03	3.83	25.7%	9.1%	—	K 20.8% · BB 9.5% · FIP 4.61
2027PROJ	25	MLBWSH	1	1	3	4.79	4.79	20.6%	9.8%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBWSH	8	8	47	4.72	4.71	21.0%	9.6%	0.4
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBWSH	10	10	62	4.70	4.71	21.0%	9.5%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.6M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 5.8, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 81%

CompsRorik Maltrud (age 24) · Buck Farmer (age 25) · Kenten Egbert (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.79

FIP4.79

K%20.6%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%10.8%

Proj IP129

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 129 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.2M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	5	0	6	25	11	1	2	0%	1.3	44.0%	4.0%	40.0%	8.0%	2.84	4.28	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	5	0	6	25	11	1	2	0%	1.3	44.0%	4.0%	40.0%	8.0%	2.84	4.28	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	5	0	6	25	11	1	2	0%	1.3	44.0%	4.0%	40.0%	8.0%	2.84	4.21	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	20	109	474	122	43	15	83%	4.6	20.8%	9.5%	11.3%	3.8%	4.03	4.61	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	20	109	474	122	43	15	83%	4.6	20.8%	9.5%	11.3%	3.8%	4.03	4.61	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	20	109	474	122	43	15	83%	4.6	25.7%	9.1%	16.7%	3.2%	4.03	3.83	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	WSH	1	1	3	13	3	1	0	100%	3.0	20.6%	9.8%	10.8%	3.3%	4.79	4.79	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	18	18	108	454	95	43	15	100%	6.0	21.0%	9.6%	11.4%	3.3%	4.72	4.71	+0.9
2029	27	MLB MLE	WSH	16	16	97	411	86	39	14	100%	6.1	21.0%	9.5%	11.5%	3.3%	4.70	4.71	+0.8
2030	28	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	91	383	80	37	13	100%	6.0	20.9%	9.6%	11.4%	3.4%	4.74	4.78	+0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	WSH	14	14	84	354	73	34	12	100%	6.0	20.7%	9.7%	11.0%	3.5%	4.83	4.89	+0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	76	320	65	32	12	100%	5.8	20.4%	10.0%	10.3%	3.7%	4.97	5.07	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	8	8	47	198	42	19	6	100%	5.9	21.0%	9.6%	11.4%	3.3%	4.72	4.71	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	62	262	55	25	9	100%	6.2	21.0%	9.5%	11.5%	3.3%	4.70	4.71	+0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	68	287	60	27	10	100%	6.2	20.9%	9.6%	11.4%	3.4%	4.74	4.78	+0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	68	287	60	28	10	100%	6.2	20.7%	9.7%	11.0%	3.5%	4.83	4.89	+0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	65	274	56	28	10	100%	5.9	20.4%	10.0%	10.3%	3.7%	4.97	5.07	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		52	52	311	1312	273	127	45	100%	6.0	20.8%	9.7%	11.1%	3.4%	4.80	4.46	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	176	82	29	100%	6.0	20.8%	9.7%	11.1%	3.4%	4.80	4.46	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		29	20	116	499	110	46	20	69%	4.0	22.0%	9.3%	12.7%	4.0%	3.97	4.60	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	35	200	863	190	80	34	69%	4.0	22.0%	9.3%	12.7%	4.0%	3.97	4.60	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAHarrisburg Senators · 74 IPFIP 3.90 → 4.88 (+0.97)K% 28.2% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.22%	—	×0.810	22.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.20%	—	×1.100	10.12%
HR / BF /BF	3.68%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.42%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.90 → 4.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAARochester Red Wings · 17 IPFIP 4.80 → 4.95 (+0.15)K% 15.9% → 13.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.85%	—	×0.860	13.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.41%	—	×0.900	12.07%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.68%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.80 → 4.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 18 IPFIP 2.14 → 2.91 (+0.77)K% 25.8% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.76%	—	×0.770	19.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.03%	—	×1.150	3.48%
HR / BF /BF	1.52%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.89%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.14 → 2.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 6 IPFIP 4.28 → 6.49 (+2.21)K% 44.0% → 33.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.00%	—	×0.770	33.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.00%	—	×1.150	4.60%
HR / BF /BF	8.00%	÷0.969	×1.250	10.32%

Result: FIP 4.28 → 6.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Cebert (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.3%	—	4.73	21.0%	11.4%	296	-0.06	—	—	—
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	89
Buck Farmer R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP-	4.29	19.5%	8.7%	3.2%	.309	3.78	20.9%	12.5%	309	-0.51	3.16	907	87
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	85
Jack Wenninger R 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	20.9%	9.3%	3.3%	.309	4.29	21.1%	11.1%	251	-0.04	3.90	366	84
Forrest Snow R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	16.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.263	4.14	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.89	3.02	406	84
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.40	21.6%	13.7%	145	-0.31	1.85	254	84
Garrett Stallings R 2023 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP-	4.29	20.4%	7.9%	3.5%	.327	3.93	17.6%	10.5%	275	-0.36	3.19	627	83
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	83
Kyle Dowdy R 2018 · 4.51 FIP	25	SP-	4.51	18.7%	10.0%	3.1%	.344	4.88	18.4%	4.5%	125	+0.37	2.98	606	83
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	83
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	83
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	19.5%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.02	23.3%	14.9%	227	-0.85	3.83	543	83
D.J. Brown R 2016 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP-	4.43	16.7%	8.1%	3.1%	.317	4.49	16.3%	9.3%	74	+0.06	4.02	348	82
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	82
Chris Ellis R 2018 · 3.84 FIP	25	SP-	3.84	19.3%	7.3%	2.6%	.284	5.30	19.2%	7.2%	165	+1.46	3.84	780	82
Tyler Cravy R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	26	SP-	3.94	17.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.305	4.61	18.6%	7.8%	138	+0.67	3.94	276	82
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	82
Mike Clevinger R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	22.1%	10.7%	2.6%	.290	3.19	28.1%	19.0%	482	-0.83	2.28	1,236	82
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	81
Bubba Derby R 2019 · 5.42 FIP	25	SP-	5.42	18.0%	10.1%	4.7%	.287	5.14	19.4%	11.0%	71	-0.28	3.68	550	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	97	20.8%	9.7%	1.31	4.78
Mickey Mahler ('77-'86, 0 WAR*)	2.0	81	20.4%*	10.3%*	1.20*	4.87*
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86
Zack Godley ('21)	2.8	95	22.1%	9.6%	1.16	4.92
Jeff Juden ('99)	2.7	107	18.8%	10.5%	1.23	4.81
Jackie Brown ('70-'77, 1 WAR*)	4.5	128	19.7%*	8.9%*	1.21*	4.93*
Vicente Palacios ('87-'00, 1 WAR*)	1.9	62	21.0%*	10.0%*	1.41*	4.86*