Jack Cebert — OGILVIE

Jack Cebert P Harrisburg Senators

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 209 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.3 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

K%22.2%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%12.8%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4050

CTRL—55

CMD3045

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	5	0	6	25	11	1	2	0%	1.3	44.0%	4.0%	40.0%	8.0%	2.84	4.28	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	5	0	6	25	11	1	2	0%	1.3	44.0%	4.0%	40.0%	8.0%	2.84	4.28	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	5	0	6	25	11	1	2	0%	1.3	44.0%	4.0%	40.0%	8.0%	2.84	4.21	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	22	20	103	444	118	38	14	91%	4.7	21.4%	9.2%	12.2%	3.8%	3.94	4.52	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	22	20	103	444	118	38	14	91%	4.7	21.4%	9.2%	12.2%	3.8%	3.94	4.52	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	WSH	3	2	18	66	17	2	1	67%	6.1	25.8%	3.0%	22.7%	1.5%	0.98	2.14	—
2026	24	AA RAW	WSH	16	15	74	326	92	30	12	94%	4.6	28.2%	9.2%	19.0%	3.7%	4.60	3.90	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	WSH	3	3	10	52	9	6	1	100%	3.3	17.3%	11.5%	5.8%	1.9%	4.50	4.16	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	WSH	17	17	102	430	97	39	13	100%	6.0	22.6%	9.1%	13.4%	3.0%	4.43	4.40	+0.6
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	17	17	102	430	98	39	13	100%	6.0	22.7%	9.0%	13.7%	3.0%	4.39	4.37	+0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	WSH	17	17	100	423	96	38	13	100%	5.9	22.7%	9.0%	13.7%	3.1%	4.39	4.40	+0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	WSH	16	16	97	411	93	37	13	100%	6.1	22.5%	9.1%	13.4%	3.2%	4.44	4.48	+0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	93	392	87	37	13	100%	6.2	22.3%	9.3%	13.0%	3.3%	4.54	4.61	+0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	87	369	81	36	13	100%	5.8	21.9%	9.7%	12.3%	3.5%	4.69	4.79	+0.1
2033	31	MLB MLE	WSH	14	14	81	344	74	34	13	100%	5.8	21.6%	10.0%	11.5%	3.8%	4.87	4.99	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	WSH	8	8	45	190	43	17	6	100%	5.6	22.6%	9.1%	13.4%	3.0%	4.43	4.40	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	68	287	65	26	9	100%	6.2	22.7%	9.0%	13.7%	3.0%	4.39	4.37	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	WSH	13	13	78	329	75	30	10	100%	6.0	22.7%	9.0%	13.7%	3.1%	4.39	4.40	+0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	WSH	14	14	82	346	78	32	11	100%	5.9	22.5%	9.1%	13.4%	3.2%	4.44	4.48	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	WSH	14	14	81	342	76	32	11	100%	5.8	22.3%	9.3%	13.0%	3.3%	4.54	4.61	+0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	WSH	13	13	79	334	73	32	12	100%	6.1	21.9%	9.7%	12.3%	3.5%	4.69	4.79	+0.1
2033	31	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	75	317	68	32	12	100%	6.2	21.6%	10.0%	11.5%	3.8%	4.87	4.99	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		85	85	507	2141	478	200	71	100%	6.0	22.3%	9.3%	13.0%	3.3%	4.54	4.21	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	189	79	28	100%	6.0	22.3%	9.3%	13.0%	3.3%	4.54	4.21	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		27	20	109	469	106	42	19	74%	4.0	22.6%	8.9%	13.7%	4.0%	3.88	4.51	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	37	200	861	195	77	34	74%	4.0	22.6%	8.9%	13.7%	4.0%	3.88	4.51	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Cebert (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	22.2%	9.4%	3.1%	—	4.39	22.7%	13.6%	304	-0.09	—	—	—
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	85
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	84
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	83
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	83
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	82
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	79
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	78
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.98	18.5%	8.4%	306	+1.27	3.62	441	78
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	77
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	77
Keith Rogalla R 2019 · 3.52 FIP	23	SP-	3.52	21.2%	11.7%	1.3%	.344	3.68	18.0%	5.9%	65	+0.16	3.10	113	77
James McArthur R 2021 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP-	3.81	19.7%	7.9%	2.5%	.310	4.14	21.6%	13.7%	194	+0.33	3.53	352	76
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	75
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	75
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	75
Orlando Rodriguez R 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SP-	4.54	20.8%	10.1%	3.5%	.380	4.51	19.3%	7.9%	101	-0.03	4.40	119	75
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	75
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	74
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	74
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	85	22.4%	9.3%	1.26	4.52
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Domingo Germán ('24)	2.6	88	24.4%	7.4%	1.65	4.58