Brooks Caple

P Knoxville Smokies

Age 24 RHP 6'6" / 230 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.2 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #239MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP45ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	21	21	98	4.48	3.70	17.3%	10.0%	—	K 13.1% · BB 11.7% · FIP 4.34
2026	23	MIX2 levels	22	21	108	3.09	3.04	25.5%	7.3%	—	K 20.4% · BB 8.1% · FIP 3.81
2027PROJ	24	MLBCHC	23	23	128	4.61	4.61	18.6%	9.3%	0.4
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBCHC	10	10	57	4.45	4.41	19.7%	8.9%	0.3
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBCHC	14	14	86	4.38	4.35	20.3%	8.8%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$3M2032Arb-2$3M2033Arb-3$3M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Command50FB velo50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 8, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 86%

CompsJustin Armbruester (age 24) · Ty Cummings (age 22) · Grant Rogers (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.61

FIP4.61

K%18.6%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%9.3%

Proj IP128

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 128 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CMD4050

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$7M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	98	428	74	43	6	100%	4.7	13.1%	11.7%	1.5%	1.6%	4.48	4.34	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	98	428	74	43	6	100%	4.7	13.1%	11.7%	1.5%	1.6%	4.48	4.34	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	98	428	74	43	6	100%	4.7	17.3%	10.0%	7.2%	1.4%	4.48	3.70	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	108	424	108	31	9	95%	4.9	20.4%	8.1%	12.3%	2.6%	3.09	3.81	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	108	424	108	31	9	95%	4.9	20.4%	8.1%	12.3%	2.6%	3.09	3.81	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	21	108	424	108	31	9	95%	4.9	25.5%	7.3%	18.2%	2.1%	3.09	3.04	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	CHC	23	23	128	540	101	50	15	100%	5.6	18.6%	9.3%	9.3%	2.8%	4.61	4.61	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	CHC	22	22	129	546	108	49	15	100%	5.9	19.7%	8.9%	10.8%	2.8%	4.51	4.47	+0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	CHC	22	22	129	546	111	48	15	100%	5.9	20.3%	8.8%	11.5%	2.8%	4.44	4.41	+0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	CHC	21	21	127	538	109	47	15	100%	6.1	20.3%	8.8%	11.6%	2.9%	4.44	4.44	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	CHC	21	21	124	522	106	46	15	100%	5.9	20.3%	8.9%	11.4%	3.0%	4.49	4.52	+0.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	CHC	20	20	118	498	100	45	15	100%	5.9	20.0%	9.1%	10.9%	3.1%	4.59	4.65	+0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	CHC	18	18	111	468	92	44	15	100%	6.2	19.7%	9.4%	10.3%	3.3%	4.73	4.83	+0.1
2034	31	MLB MLE	CHC	17	17	103	437	84	43	15	100%	6.1	19.3%	9.8%	9.5%	3.5%	4.91	5.03	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	57	241	47	21	6	100%	5.7	19.7%	8.9%	10.8%	2.7%	4.45	4.41	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	CHC	14	14	86	363	74	32	10	100%	6.1	20.3%	8.8%	11.5%	2.7%	4.38	4.35	+0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	CHC	16	16	99	418	85	37	11	100%	6.2	20.3%	8.8%	11.6%	2.7%	4.38	4.38	+0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	CHC	17	17	104	439	89	39	13	100%	6.1	20.3%	8.9%	11.4%	2.8%	4.43	4.46	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	CHC	17	17	103	435	87	40	13	100%	6.1	20.0%	9.1%	10.9%	3.0%	4.53	4.59	+0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	CHC	17	17	100	422	83	40	13	100%	5.9	19.7%	9.4%	10.3%	3.2%	4.66	4.76	+0.1
2034	31	MLB CTX	CHC	16	16	95	401	77	39	14	100%	5.9	19.3%	9.8%	9.5%	3.4%	4.84	4.96	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		108	108	644	2719	543	248	80	100%	6.0	20.0%	9.1%	10.9%	3.0%	4.53	4.19	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	169	77	25	100%	6.0	20.0%	9.1%	10.9%	3.0%	4.53	4.19	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		43	42	206	852	143	84	18	98%	4.8	16.7%	9.9%	6.8%	2.1%	3.76	4.08	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	41	200	827	138	82	17	98%	4.8	16.7%	9.9%	6.8%	2.1%	3.76	4.08	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brooks Caple (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	18.6%	9.3%	2.8%	—	4.44	20.1%	11.3%	386	-0.17	—	—	—
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.41 FIP	24	SP	4.41	17.7%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.25	21.0%	10.6%	135	+0.84	1.49	373	93
Ty Cummings R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	19.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.329	5.36	14.4%	6.0%	178	+1.02	4.34	295	88
Grant Rogers R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	4.45	12.8%	6.3%	280	+0.37	3.90	392	87
Ian Mejia R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	18.7%	11.6%	2.2%	.288	5.06	16.0%	6.6%	194	+0.84	3.94	439	87
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	240	87
Brady Feigl R 2019 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP	3.93	15.9%	7.0%	2.3%	.333	5.26	19.4%	9.8%	122	+1.33	3.93	257	86
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	86
Tyler Herb R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	17.2%	10.1%	2.5%	.298	4.67	15.7%	7.0%	378	+0.38	3.79	867	86
Trystan Vrieling R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	17.3%	8.2%	2.5%	.297	4.84	17.9%	5.3%	198	+0.82	4.02	345	86
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	24	SP	4.06	22.9%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	3.91	23.9%	15.7%	451	-0.15	3.72	709	86
Jack Mahoney R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	17.3%	7.1%	2.5%	.307	4.16	15.0%	4.8%	206	+0.25	3.80	326	86
Tommy Wilson R 2019 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	16.3%	7.7%	3.0%	.261	3.08	22.8%	15.9%	15	-1.27	3.08	129	86
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	86
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	86
Roman Angelo R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.72	18.6%	5.2%	169	+1.73	3.99	290	85
Micah Owings R 2007 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP	4.35	16.3%	7.4%	3.1%	.264	4.75	16.4%	5.4%	258	+0.40	4.23	473	85
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	85
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	85
Kade Morris R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP	4.72	16.1%	8.4%	3.5%	.282	4.36	15.6%	8.3%	264	-0.36	3.89	395	85
Félix Peña R 2015 · 3.73 FIP	25	SP	3.73	21.0%	9.8%	2.1%	.296	3.83	24.0%	15.6%	263	+0.10	2.79	615	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.8	121	19.8%	9.1%	1.16	4.58
Joe Coleman ('42-'55, 6 WAR*)	5.7	142	18.0%*	9.1%*	1.25*	4.62*
Elmer Knetzer ('09-'17, 6 WAR*)	6.3	158	19.4%*	9.7%*	1.10*	4.40*
Brian Kingman ('79-'83, 3 WAR*)	2.8	138	18.4%*	8.6%*	1.10*	4.62*
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Tyler Anderson ('25)	6.3	126	19.5%	7.8%	1.32	4.30
Chris Tillman ('18)	5.7	114	17.3%	8.9%	1.29	4.57