Beau Blanchard
P
Dayton Dragons
Age 24
RHP
6'5" / 220 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION61 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 110
ERA4.84
FIP4.84
K%15.5%
BB%8.0%
K-BB%7.5%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 128 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 23 | 1 | 50 | 228 | 50 | 13 | 6 | 4% | 2.2 | 16.2% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.47 | 4.35 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 23 | 1 | 50 | 228 | 50 | 13 | 6 | 4% | 2.2 | 21.9% | 5.7% | 16.2% | 2.6% | 4.47 | 3.44 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 17 | 7 | 61 | 265 | 56 | 25 | 13 | 41% | 3.6 | 16.3% | 10.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.46 | 6.47 | -1.4 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CIN | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 44 | 23 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 4.84 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 4.84 | 4.84 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 128 | 549 | 100 | 48 | 22 | — | — | 18.2% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 3.9% | 5.13 | 5.61 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 15.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 4.84 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 49 | 23 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.74 | 4.71 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 51 | 23 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.67 | 4.65 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 21 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.74 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 34 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.67 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 71 | 0 | 75 | 316 | 55 | 25 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.5% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.70 | 4.29 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 147 | 67 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.5% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.70 | 4.29 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 40 | 8 | 111 | 493 | 80 | 44 | 24 | 20% | 2.8 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 5.01 | 5.49 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 72 | 14 | 200 | 886 | 144 | 79 | 42 | 20% | 2.8 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 5.01 | 5.49 | -0.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Beau Blanchard (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.84 | 15.5% | 8.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.68 | 17.4% | 9.4% | 136 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Scott Burke R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.84 | 14.2% | 7.7% | 3.6% | .316 | 5.01 | 14.9% | 6.7% | 61 | +0.17 | 4.84 | 119 | 90 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .277 | 3.65 | 19.4% | 11.4% | 83 | -0.37 | 3.43 | 167 | 89 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.29 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 2.6% | .262 | 5.23 | 16.8% | 4.6% | 91 | +0.94 | 4.03 | 161 | 88 |
| Daniel Blair R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.20 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .284 | 4.38 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.18 | 4.20 | 171 | 87 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 86 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 86 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.25 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.09 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 274 | -0.16 | 3.69 | 366 | 85 |
| Trevor Foss R 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.43 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 3.3% | .308 | 3.47 | 17.3% | 13.8% | 42 | -0.96 | 3.47 | 120 | 84 |
| Devin Burke R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.61 | 11.7% | 7.0% | 3.0% | .275 | 3.97 | 13.7% | 8.8% | 87 | -0.64 | 3.97 | 149 | 84 |
| Conor Steinbaugh R 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.77 | 16.0% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .281 | 6.87 | 14.3% | 0.8% | 39 | +2.10 | 4.77 | 107 | 84 |
| Diego Granado R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.26 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 4.6% | .335 | 4.40 | 15.5% | 1.1% | 40 | -0.86 | 4.40 | 110 | 84 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.01 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.30 | 3.01 | 176 | 83 |
| Kevin Johnson R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.59 | 11.0% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 5.48 | 9.9% | -2.0% | 26 | +0.89 | 4.59 | 106 | 83 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .331 | 5.46 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.57 | 3.89 | 141 | 82 |
| Connor Johnstone R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.90 | 11.8% | 6.1% | 1.9% | .329 | 4.85 | 13.3% | 7.6% | 140 | +0.95 | 3.90 | 319 | 82 |
| Tai Tiedemann R 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.74 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 1.6% | .305 | 5.99 | 9.8% | -0.2% | 118 | +2.25 | 3.74 | 190 | 82 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2029 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.25 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 4.4% | .307 | 3.44 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.81 | 3.32 | 227 | 81 |
| T.J. Weir R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.08 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .319 | 3.46 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 190 | -0.62 | 3.21 | 349 | 81 |
| Tyler Barnette R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.53 | 13.0% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .333 | 3.99 | 10.7% | -3.5% | 13 | -0.54 | 3.53 | 173 | 81 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.50 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .286 | 4.16 | 16.1% | 7.8% | 91 | -0.34 | 3.28 | 252 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 16.8% | 8.0% | 1.17 | 4.75 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Chris Rusin ('18) | 4 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 4.43 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |