Beau Blanchard — OGILVIE

Beau Blanchard P Dayton Dragons

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 220 lbs A+ peak 0.3 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION104 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 107

ERA4.76

FIP4.76

K%15.5%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%8.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 110 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	23	1	50	228	50	13	6	4%	2.2	16.2%	6.7%	9.5%	3.3%	4.47	4.40	—
2025	23	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	23	1	50	228	50	13	6	4%	2.2	16.2%	6.7%	9.5%	3.3%	4.47	4.40	—
2025	23	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	23	1	50	228	50	13	6	4%	2.2	21.9%	5.7%	16.2%	2.6%	4.47	3.44	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	27	17	104	463	103	41	25	63%	3.9	17.5%	10.0%	7.5%	6.6%	5.87	6.52	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	27	17	104	463	103	41	25	63%	3.9	17.5%	10.0%	7.5%	6.6%	5.87	6.52	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	CIN	17	7	61	265	56	25	13	41%	3.6	21.1%	9.4%	11.7%	4.9%	5.46	5.20	—
2026	24	AA RAW	CIN	10	10	43	198	47	16	12	100%	4.3	23.7%	8.1%	15.7%	6.1%	6.44	5.45	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	CIN	1	1	6	26	4	2	1	100%	6.1	15.5%	7.3%	8.2%	3.0%	4.76	4.76	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	110	489	107	43	26	—	—	21.9%	8.8%	13.1%	5.3%	5.80	6.42	-1.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CIN	99	0	104	437	74	32	13	0%	1.0	16.9%	7.2%	9.6%	3.0%	4.66	4.63	-0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	CIN	99	0	104	437	77	32	13	0%	1.0	17.6%	7.2%	10.4%	3.0%	4.59	4.56	-0.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	CIN	97	0	102	430	77	31	13	0%	1.1	17.8%	7.3%	10.5%	3.1%	4.58	4.59	-0.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	CIN	94	0	99	417	74	31	13	0%	1.1	17.8%	7.5%	10.3%	3.2%	4.63	4.66	-0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	CIN	90	0	94	399	70	31	13	0%	1.0	17.5%	7.7%	9.8%	3.3%	4.73	4.79	-0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	CIN	84	0	89	375	64	30	13	0%	1.1	17.2%	8.0%	9.2%	3.5%	4.88	4.97	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	CIN	43	0	45	190	32	14	6	0%	1.0	16.9%	7.2%	9.6%	3.0%	4.66	4.63	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	CIN	66	0	69	291	51	21	9	0%	1.0	17.6%	7.2%	10.4%	3.0%	4.59	4.56	-0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	CIN	75	0	79	334	59	24	10	0%	1.1	17.8%	7.3%	10.5%	3.1%	4.58	4.59	-0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	CIN	79	0	83	350	62	26	11	0%	1.1	17.8%	7.5%	10.3%	3.2%	4.63	4.66	-0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	CIN	79	0	83	350	61	27	12	0%	1.1	17.5%	7.7%	9.8%	3.3%	4.73	4.79	-0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	CIN	76	0	80	338	58	27	12	0%	1.1	17.2%	8.0%	9.2%	3.5%	4.88	4.97	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		417	0	438	1848	323	139	59	0%	1.0	17.5%	7.5%	10.0%	3.2%	4.68	4.33	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	148	64	27	0%	1.1	17.5%	7.5%	10.0%	3.2%	4.68	4.33	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		50	18	155	691	118	62	38	36%	3.1	17.1%	8.9%	8.2%	5.5%	5.41	5.82	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	23	200	894	153	80	49	36%	3.1	17.1%	8.9%	8.2%	5.5%	5.41	5.82	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Beau Blanchard (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.76	15.5%	7.3%	3.0%	—	4.59	17.4%	10.2%	309	-0.17	—	—	—
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	88
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.40	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.40	3.65	299	86
Steven Bruce R 2017 · 3.69 FIP	25	SW	3.69	14.9%	5.0%	2.2%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.8%	94	+0.25	3.69	148	86
Matt Peacock R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	16.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.300	4.27	13.6%	5.2%	202	+0.07	3.93	354	84
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	84
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	84
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	83
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	83
Josh DeGraaf R 2017 · 3.90 FIP	24	SW	3.90	15.5%	7.7%	2.1%	.295	4.52	17.2%	10.1%	121	+0.62	3.90	320	82
Thomas Ponticelli R 2021 · 4.50 FIP	24	SW	4.50	17.2%	9.7%	3.0%	.264	5.28	14.8%	3.5%	163	+0.78	2.59	367	82
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	82
Daniel Blair R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	16.6%	10.0%	2.1%	.284	4.39	17.0%	7.8%	78	+0.29	4.10	171	82
Kevin Miranda R 2023 · 3.76 FIP	24	SP-	3.76	11.5%	5.7%	1.7%	.293	5.48	13.4%	5.0%	67	+1.72	3.76	153	81
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	80
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	80
Hunter Hayes R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	22	SW	4.53	13.3%	9.7%	2.4%	.307	4.49	16.5%	4.0%	155	-0.04	3.34	216	80
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	80
Cesar Gomez R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	24	SP-	4.86	17.4%	7.5%	4.1%	.316	5.02	14.4%	4.6%	160	+0.16	4.11	345	80
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.40	16.6%	6.3%	296	+0.18	3.64	391	80
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	94	17.3%	7.5%	1.22	4.68
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Jaime Barria ('23)	2.3	77	17.9%	7.7%	1.61	4.38
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37