Raylin Heredia
OF Reading Fightin Phils| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | APHI | 289 | .245/.314/.428 | 8 | 9 | 42 | — | .175/.233/.293 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+/ROK/INTL2 orgs | 280 | .302/.349/.486 | 10 | 10 | 85 | — | .231/.269/.370 |
| 2026 | 22 | AAPHI | 579 | .278/.317/.473 | 23 | 25 | 80 | — | .241/.274/.389 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBPHI | 4 | .223/.258/.372 | 0 | 0 | 71 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 24 | MLBPHI | 132 | .226/.264/.379 | 4 | 4 | 75 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ45% MLB | 25 | MLBPHI | 205 | .227/.268/.384 | 7 | 5 | 78 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL Phillies White | — | 190 | 172 | 47 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 49 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 273 | 335 | 459 | 794 | 186 | 366 | 26 | 7 | 346 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Clearwater Threshers | — | 73 | 66 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 288 | 347 | 409 | 756 | 121 | 419 | 32 | 8 | 334 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | FCL Phillies | — | 164 | 141 | 46 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 42 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 326 | 417 | 532 | 949 | 206 | 438 | 26 | 10 | 415 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Clearwater Threshers | — | 289 | 257 | 63 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 97 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 245 | 314 | 428 | 743 | 183 | 350 | 34 | 7 | 322 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 184 | 165 | 47 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 46 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 285 | 339 | 467 | 805 | 182 | 354 | 25 | 7 | 352 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK | FCL Phillies | — | 37 | 35 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 343 | 361 | 486 | 847 | 143 | 379 | 16 | 3 | 365 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | INTL | Adelaide Giants | — | 59 | 55 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 327 | 373 | 545 | 918 | 218 | 390 | 20 | 3 | 403 | 159 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 579 | 543 | 151 | 35 | 1 | 23 | 25 | 147 | 7 | 25 | 7 | 278 | 317 | 473 | 790 | 195 | 341 | 25 | 4 | 346 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies White | — | 190 | 176 | 26 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 62 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 148 | 202 | 233 | 435 | 85 | 218 | 33 | 5 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 73 | 68 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 235 | 278 | 338 | 616 | 103 | 397 | 42 | 5 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Phillies | — | 164 | 148 | 31 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 61 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 209 | 282 | 345 | 627 | 135 | 317 | 37 | 6 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 289 | 263 | 46 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 134 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 175 | 233 | 293 | 526 | 118 | 303 | 46 | 5 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 184 | 173 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 60 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 225 | 268 | 370 | 638 | 145 | 292 | 33 | 4 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Phillies | — | 37 | 35 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 257 | 278 | 371 | 649 | 114 | 293 | 24 | 3 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 579 | 552 | 133 | 29 | 1 | 17 | 18 | 179 | 7 | 25 | 7 | 241 | 274 | 389 | 663 | 149 | 323 | 31 | 3 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies White | — | 190 | 176 | 26 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 62 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 148 | 202 | 233 | 435 | 85 | 217 | 33 | 5 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Phillies White | — | 190 | 172 | 47 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 49 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 273 | 335 | 459 | 794 | 186 | 366 | 26 | 7 | 346 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 237 | 215 | 46 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 92 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 214 | 281 | 321 | 602 | 107 | 352 | 39 | 6 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 237 | 207 | 65 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 65 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 314 | 396 | 493 | 888 | 179 | 432 | 27 | 10 | 390 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 289 | 263 | 46 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 134 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 175 | 233 | 293 | 526 | 118 | 318 | 46 | 5 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A RAW | Clearwater Threshers | — | 289 | 257 | 63 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 97 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 245 | 314 | 428 | 743 | 183 | 350 | 34 | 7 | 322 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 280 | 264 | 60 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 87 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 227 | 266 | 356 | 622 | 129 | 304 | 31 | 3 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 280 | 255 | 77 | 15 | 1 | 10 | 15 | 64 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 302 | 349 | 486 | 835 | 184 | 366 | 23 | 5 | 364 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 579 | 552 | 133 | 29 | 1 | 17 | 18 | 179 | 7 | 25 | 7 | 241 | 274 | 389 | 663 | 149 | 324 | 31 | 3 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA RAW | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 579 | 543 | 151 | 35 | 1 | 23 | 25 | 147 | 7 | 25 | 7 | 278 | 317 | 473 | 790 | 195 | 341 | 25 | 4 | 346 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies White | — | 190 | 176 | 26 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 62 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 148 | 202 | 233 | 435 | 85 | 218 | 33 | 5 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 237 | 215 | 46 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 92 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 214 | 281 | 321 | 602 | 107 | 342 | 39 | 6 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 289 | 267 | 46 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 134 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 172 | 233 | 288 | 522 | 116 | 303 | 46 | 5 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 280 | 264 | 60 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 87 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 227 | 266 | 356 | 622 | 129 | 292 | 31 | 3 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 579 | 549 | 133 | 29 | 1 | 17 | 18 | 179 | 7 | 25 | 7 | 242 | 274 | 392 | 665 | 149 | 323 | 31 | 3 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 289 | 267 | 46 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 134 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 172 | 233 | 288 | 522 | 116 | 303 | 46 | 5 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 280 | 264 | 60 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 87 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 227 | 266 | 356 | 622 | 129 | 292 | 31 | 3 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 579 | 549 | 133 | 29 | 1 | 17 | 18 | 179 | 7 | 25 | 7 | 242 | 274 | 392 | 665 | 149 | 323 | 31 | 3 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | PHI | 2% | 557 | 527 | 116 | 23 | 2 | 16 | 19 | 165 | 6 | 15 | 4 | 221 | 256 | 364 | 621 | 144 | 285 | 30 | 3 | 274 | 71 | -19 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +12 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB CTX | PHI | 2% | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 223 | 258 | 372 | 630 | 149 | 286 | 25 | 0 | 277 | 71 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | PHI | 31% | 425 | 401 | 90 | 18 | 1 | 13 | 16 | 123 | 5 | 12 | 3 | 224 | 262 | 371 | 633 | 148 | 286 | 29 | 4 | 279 | 75 | -13 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +9 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | PHI | 45% | 459 | 432 | 96 | 19 | 1 | 14 | 19 | 131 | 5 | 12 | 3 | 225 | 266 | 375 | 641 | 150 | 287 | 29 | 4 | 283 | 78 | -12 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +10 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB MLE | PHI | 51% | 477 | 448 | 102 | 20 | 2 | 15 | 21 | 135 | 5 | 13 | 4 | 226 | 269 | 377 | 645 | 151 | 287 | 28 | 4 | 285 | 79 | -12 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +10 | -0.4 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB MLE | PHI | 53% | 483 | 453 | 103 | 20 | 2 | 15 | 22 | 136 | 5 | 12 | 3 | 226 | 270 | 376 | 646 | 150 | 286 | 28 | 5 | 285 | 79 | -12 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +10 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | PHI | 31% | 132 | 125 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 38 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 226 | 264 | 379 | 643 | 154 | 287 | 29 | 4 | 283 | 75 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | PHI | 45% | 205 | 193 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 59 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 227 | 268 | 384 | 651 | 156 | 287 | 29 | 4 | 287 | 78 | -5 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB CTX | PHI | 51% | 243 | 228 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 69 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 228 | 270 | 385 | 655 | 157 | 287 | 28 | 4 | 289 | 79 | -6 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB CTX | PHI | 53% | 254 | 237 | 54 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 71 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 228 | 272 | 384 | 656 | 156 | 287 | 28 | 5 | 289 | 79 | -6 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +6 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 834 | 783 | 177 | 33 | 3 | 27 | 35 | 237 | 9 | 21 | 7 | 226 | 267 | 379 | 647 | 153 | 287 | 28 | 4 | 288 | 70 | -22 | +1 | +0 | -5 | +18 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 610 | 138 | 26 | 2 | 21 | 27 | 185 | 7 | 16 | 5 | 226 | 267 | 379 | 645 | 152 | 287 | 28 | 4 | 288 | 70 | -17 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -0.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3629 | 3403 | 746 | 147 | 18 | 97 | 151 | 1141 | 47 | 117 | 31 | 219 | 262 | 359 | 621 | 139 | 297 | 31 | 4 | 272 | 70 | -56 | +5 | +0 | -12 | +45 | -1.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 610 | 133 | 26 | 3 | 17 | 27 | 204 | 8 | 21 | 6 | 218 | 260 | 354 | 615 | 136 | 295 | 31 | 4 | 272 | 70 | -18 | +2 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -0.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAReading Fightin Phils · 579 PAwOBA .337 → .287 (−50)K% 25.4% → 31.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.39% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.32% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 3.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.21% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 1.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.993 | ×1.027 | 22.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.993 | ×1.027 | 7.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×0.993 | ×1.027 | 0.24% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.81% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 4.65% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .337 → .287; ISO .195 → .154; BABIP .341 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 184 PAwOBA .344 → .264 (−80)K% 25.0% → 32.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.002 | ×1.310 | — | — | 32.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.52% | ÷1.093 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 3.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.63% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 1.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.89% | ÷0.966 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 23.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.073 | ×0.780 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 4.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.84% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.60% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.045 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 5.01% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 93, 2B 115, 3B 130, K 100, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .344 → .264; ISO .182 → .142; BABIP .354 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Phillies · 37 PAwOBA .364 → .270 (−94)K% 16.2% → 23.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.22% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 23.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.70% | ÷0.928 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 1.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.03% | ÷1.004 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 24.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.90% | ÷1.015 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 4.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.45% | ÷0.917 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 2.86% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 101, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 100, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .364 → .270; ISO .143 → .106; BABIP .379 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AClearwater Threshers · 289 PAwOBA .319 → .230 (−89)K% 33.6% → 46.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.56% | ÷0.982 | ×1.360 | — | — | 46.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.27% | ÷0.973 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 5.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.73% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.75% | ÷1.042 | ×0.920 | ×0.995 | ×1.015 | 21.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.88% | ÷0.938 | ×0.830 | ×0.995 | ×1.015 | 6.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.75% | ÷1.132 | ×0.910 | ×0.995 | ×1.015 | 3.04% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.115 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 3.64% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 108, 2B 88, 3B 126, K 96, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .319 → .230; ISO .183 → .122; BABIP .350 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Phillies · 164 PAwOBA .407 → .265 (−142)K% 25.6% → 37.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.61% | ÷0.989 | ×1.440 | — | — | 37.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.37% | ÷1.005 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 6.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.05% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 2.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.29% | ÷1.028 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 22.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.023 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 6.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.04% | ÷0.938 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 2.93% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.04% | ÷1.028 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 3.05% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 106, 2B 105, 3B 88, K 98, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .407 → .265; ISO .206 → .133; BABIP .438 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AClearwater Threshers · 73 PAwOBA .330 → .267 (−63)K% 31.5% → 42.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.51% | ÷1.020 | ×1.360 | — | — | 41.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.22% | ÷0.972 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 6.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.56% | ÷0.965 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.030 | 31.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.98% | ÷1.002 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.030 | 5.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.33% | ÷1.056 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.030 | 2.06% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 1.92% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 93, 2B 100, 3B 111, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .330 → .267; ISO .121 → .091; BABIP .419 → .397. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Phillies White · 190 PAwOBA .341 → .197 (−143)K% 25.8% → 32.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.79% | ÷0.961 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.84% | ÷1.033 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 4.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.58% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 1.10% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.51% | ÷0.991 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 12.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.01% | ÷1.018 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 7.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.07% | ÷1.090 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 2.12% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.63% | ÷0.849 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 0.90% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 98, 2B 104, 3B 118, K 92, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .341 → .197; ISO .186 → .096; BABIP .366 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .