Jamie Hitt — OGILVIE

Jamie Hitt P Fort Wayne TinCaps

Age 24 LHP 6'0" / 192 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.1 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 124

ERA4.78

FIP4.78

K%19.1%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%9.2%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	25	22	107	488	97	44	13	88%	4.3	15.2%	10.3%	4.9%	3.3%	5.72	4.94	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	25	22	107	488	97	44	13	88%	4.3	15.2%	10.3%	4.9%	3.3%	5.72	4.94	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	SD	1	0	2	7	4	0	0	0%	2.0	57.1%	0.0%	57.1%	0.0%	0.00	-1.73	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	SD	13	13	58	266	50	24	7	100%	4.4	18.8%	9.0%	9.8%	2.6%	5.31	4.10	—
2026	24	AA RAW	SD	11	9	47	215	43	20	6	82%	4.3	20.0%	9.3%	10.7%	2.8%	6.46	4.12	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	SD	18	18	106	448	90	42	13	100%	5.9	20.1%	9.3%	10.7%	3.0%	4.66	4.62	+0.3
2028	26	MLB MLE	SD	18	18	106	448	92	41	13	100%	5.9	20.5%	9.2%	11.4%	3.0%	4.59	4.56	+0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	SD	17	17	104	441	91	41	13	100%	6.1	20.6%	9.2%	11.4%	3.1%	4.58	4.58	+0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	SD	17	17	101	428	88	40	14	100%	6.0	20.5%	9.3%	11.2%	3.2%	4.62	4.66	+0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	SD	16	16	97	409	83	39	14	100%	6.0	20.3%	9.5%	10.8%	3.3%	4.72	4.79	+0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	SD	15	15	91	384	77	38	13	100%	6.1	19.9%	9.8%	10.1%	3.5%	4.87	4.96	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	SD	8	8	46	194	39	18	6	100%	5.8	20.1%	9.3%	10.7%	3.1%	4.70	4.66	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	SD	12	12	70	296	61	27	9	100%	5.8	20.5%	9.2%	11.4%	3.1%	4.63	4.60	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	SD	14	14	81	342	70	31	11	100%	5.8	20.6%	9.2%	11.4%	3.1%	4.62	4.62	+0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	SD	14	14	85	359	74	33	12	100%	6.1	20.5%	9.3%	11.2%	3.2%	4.66	4.70	+0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	SD	14	14	85	359	73	34	12	100%	6.1	20.3%	9.5%	10.8%	3.4%	4.77	4.84	+0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	SD	14	14	82	346	69	34	12	100%	5.9	19.9%	9.8%	10.1%	3.6%	4.92	5.01	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		75	75	449	1895	385	178	62	100%	6.0	20.3%	9.4%	10.9%	3.3%	4.72	4.37	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	172	79	28	100%	6.0	20.3%	9.4%	10.9%	3.3%	4.72	4.37	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		25	22	107	488	74	50	16	88%	4.3	15.2%	10.3%	4.9%	3.3%	5.72	4.94	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	41	200	912	139	94	30	88%	4.3	15.2%	10.3%	4.9%	3.3%	5.72	4.94	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jamie Hitt (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	19.1%	9.9%	3.0%	—	4.59	20.4%	11.2%	317	-0.19	—	—	—
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	82
Matt Portland L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP-	4.64	17.4%	11.0%	2.9%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	143	78
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	77
Michel Gelabert L 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	18.7%	12.1%	2.4%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	107	76
James Paxton L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	26	SP	4.22	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	2.95	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.27	2.46	924	75
Kyle Twomey L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	14.8%	7.9%	2.0%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	141	75
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	74
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	74
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	73
Grant Watson L 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	16.4%	10.3%	3.0%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	180	73
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	72
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	71
Adam Seminaris L 2023 · 4.01 FIP	24	SP	4.01	19.6%	9.8%	2.4%	.362	3.57	19.3%	12.4%	338	-0.44	3.00	577	71
Jake Zokan L 2015 · 4.89 FIP	24	SP	4.89	12.5%	9.9%	2.9%	.292	1.79	24.2%	22.5%	37	-3.10	1.79	120	71
Josh Hendrickson L 2022 · 5.04 FIP	24	SP	5.04	17.8%	10.9%	3.8%	.339	6.26	14.6%	4.3%	108	+1.22	3.80	365	71
Jordan Fowler L 2023 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP	4.08	13.2%	7.9%	2.0%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	124	71
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	71
Riley Frey L 2023 · 4.00 FIP	21	SP	4.00	22.5%	7.5%	3.4%	.417	4.47	18.0%	10.8%	184	+0.47	3.87	202	71
Zach Penrod L 2023 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	17.3%	14.2%	1.5%	.263	4.46	21.1%	6.8%	141	+0.19	3.41	174	70
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	89	20.3%	9.4%	1.22	4.67
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24
Daniel Mengden ('19)	1.5	73	17.3%	7.7%	1.24	4.68