Jose Olivares

P Wichita Wind Surge

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 199 lbs AA peak 0.4 · 2031

Overview

AAPROSPECT

Scout OFP45ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	15	12	51	3.91	2.65	23.2%	10.0%	—	K 17.7% · BB 11.4% · FIP 3.05
2025	22	A+MIN	22	21	90	4.38	3.20	27.6%	14.7%	—	K 21.2% · BB 16.9% · FIP 4.18
2026	23	MIX2 levels	17	13	41	6.86	5.61	16.9%	15.4%	—	K 12.6% · BB 17.7% · FIP 6.41
2027PROJ	24	MLBMIN	10	10	57	5.87	5.87	17.4%	17.8%	-0.6
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBMIN	6	6	36	5.55	5.44	18.9%	15.5%	-0.2
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBMIN	9	9	55	5.36	5.30	19.7%	14.8%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control33Command40FB velo60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 92%

CompsZach Linginfelter (age 24) · Kyle Larsen (age 21) · Andrew Thurman (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 128

ERA5.87

FIP5.87

K%17.4%

BB%17.8%

K-BB%-0.4%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL2535

CMD3040

K†4050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	10	5	15	73	15	10	1	50%	1.5	14.0%	17.1%	-3.2%	1.9%	5.40	5.14	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	10	5	15	73	15	10	1	50%	1.5	20.5%	13.7%	6.8%	1.4%	5.40	3.97	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	10	4	34	148	40	17	4	40%	3.4	18.4%	14.4%	4.0%	3.0%	4.01	4.99	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	10	4	34	148	40	17	4	40%	3.4	27.0%	11.5%	15.5%	2.7%	4.01	3.78	—
2023	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	21	20	85	376	83	43	15	95%	4.1	16.3%	13.5%	2.8%	5.3%	6.22	6.35	—
2023	20	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	21	20	85	376	83	43	15	95%	4.1	22.1%	11.4%	10.6%	4.0%	6.22	4.95	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	12	51	220	51	22	1	80%	3.4	17.7%	11.4%	6.3%	0.0%	3.91	3.05	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	12	51	220	51	22	1	80%	3.4	17.7%	11.4%	6.3%	0.0%	3.91	3.05	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	12	51	220	51	22	1	80%	3.4	23.2%	10.0%	13.2%	0.5%	3.91	2.65	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	22	21	90	388	107	57	4	95%	4.1	21.2%	16.9%	4.3%	1.3%	4.38	4.18	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	22	21	90	388	107	57	4	95%	4.1	21.2%	16.9%	4.3%	1.3%	4.38	4.18	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	22	21	90	388	107	57	4	95%	4.1	27.6%	14.7%	12.9%	1.0%	4.38	3.20	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	13	41	195	33	30	6	76%	2.4	12.6%	17.7%	-5.1%	3.9%	6.86	6.41	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	13	41	195	33	30	6	76%	2.4	12.6%	17.7%	-5.1%	3.9%	6.86	6.41	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	13	41	195	33	30	6	76%	2.4	16.9%	15.4%	1.5%	3.1%	6.86	5.61	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	MIN	10	10	57	241	42	43	7	100%	5.7	17.4%	17.8%	-0.4%	2.9%	5.87	5.87	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIN	14	14	82	347	66	54	10	100%	5.9	18.9%	15.5%	3.4%	2.9%	5.55	5.44	-0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIN	14	14	82	347	68	52	10	100%	5.9	19.7%	14.8%	4.8%	2.9%	5.36	5.30	-0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIN	14	14	81	342	68	50	10	100%	5.8	19.8%	14.6%	5.2%	3.0%	5.29	5.28	-0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIN	13	13	79	332	72	46	10	100%	6.1	21.7%	13.8%	7.9%	3.1%	5.15	5.07	-0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIN	13	13	75	318	68	44	10	100%	5.8	21.5%	14.0%	7.5%	3.2%	5.18	5.20	-0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIN	12	12	71	299	63	43	10	100%	5.9	21.1%	14.3%	6.8%	3.4%	5.30	5.38	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIN	6	6	36	152	29	24	4	100%	6.0	18.9%	15.5%	3.4%	2.9%	5.55	5.44	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIN	9	9	55	232	46	34	7	100%	6.1	19.7%	14.8%	4.8%	2.9%	5.36	5.30	-0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIN	10	10	63	266	53	39	8	100%	6.3	19.8%	14.6%	5.2%	3.0%	5.29	5.28	-0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIN	11	11	66	279	60	38	9	100%	6.0	21.7%	13.8%	7.9%	3.1%	5.15	5.07	-0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIN	11	11	66	279	60	39	9	100%	6.0	21.5%	14.0%	7.5%	3.2%	5.18	5.20	-0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIN	11	11	64	270	57	39	9	100%	5.8	21.1%	14.3%	6.8%	3.4%	5.30	5.38	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		58	58	350	1477	304	213	46	100%	6.0	20.6%	14.4%	6.2%	3.1%	5.28	4.89	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	174	122	26	100%	6.0	20.6%	14.4%	6.2%	3.1%	5.28	4.89	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		95	75	316	1400	245	210	39	79%	3.3	17.5%	15.0%	2.5%	2.8%	5.13	5.03	-2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	48	200	887	155	133	24	79%	3.3	17.5%	15.0%	2.5%	2.8%	5.13	5.03	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Olivares (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.87	17.4%	17.8%	2.9%	—	5.34	19.4%	4.5%	246	-0.53	—	—	—
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	84
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	84
Andrew Thurman R 2016 · 6.31 FIP	24	SP-	6.31	14.4%	16.9%	4.2%	.291	2.59	16.8%	9.6%	25	-3.72	2.59	264	82
J.P. Massey R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.283	5.71	15.5%	-1.3%	46	+0.99	4.72	195	82
Holt Jones R 2023 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	16.1%	17.9%	1.9%	.285	4.33	21.4%	7.0%	173	-0.73	4.21	254	78
Jackson Fristoe R 2024 · 4.81 FIP	23	SP	4.81	18.8%	19.6%	1.5%	.266	6.79	13.5%	-4.0%	74	+1.98	4.81	139	77
Carlos Tavera R 2023 · 5.86 FIP	24	SP-	5.86	19.6%	17.3%	4.0%	.267	5.20	19.2%	6.0%	114	-0.66	3.85	263	77
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	77
Ryan Jensen R 2022 · 4.87 FIP	24	SP	4.87	18.8%	16.6%	2.3%	.252	4.34	23.7%	6.6%	150	-0.53	3.92	311	76
Joel Hanrahan R 2007 · 5.58 FIP	25	SP	5.58	17.4%	15.4%	3.6%	.318	3.06	27.8%	18.1%	218	-2.52	2.08	397	76
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	76
Rubén Menes R 2024 · 5.62 FIP	22	SP-	5.62	15.8%	15.2%	3.5%	.235	4.77	15.6%	2.4%	81	-0.85	3.39	112	76
Eriq Swan R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP-	4.85	19.7%	17.3%	2.2%	.371	5.28	19.7%	0.9%	109	+0.43	4.85	132	76
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	75
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	75
Jacob Cravey R 2024 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP-	5.15	14.4%	18.0%	1.8%	.333	5.84	14.7%	1.0%	124	+0.69	4.97	208	75
Bryce Conley R 2019 · 5.40 FIP	24	SP-	5.40	17.0%	16.0%	3.1%	.227	4.28	17.4%	5.6%	142	-1.12	4.22	560	74
Tyler Schlaffer R 2024 · 5.08 FIP	23	SP-	5.08	14.5%	13.3%	2.8%	.298	4.13	20.3%	7.7%	190	-0.95	3.79	399	74
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	74
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	75	20.1%	14.9%	1.18	5.37
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Capilla ('76-'81, 1 WAR*)	1.5	73	20.1%*	13.5%*	0.98*	4.78*
George Smith ('26-'30, -3 WAR*)	1.7	66	22.6%*	14.5%*	1.13*	5.29*
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*