Jean Carlos Reyes prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Jean Carlos Reyes P DSL Red Sox Red

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 203 lbs ROK peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 13 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 105

ERA4.65

FIP4.65

K%22.7%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%11.3%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Blue	14	14	50	208	36	22	0	100%	3.6	11.8%	13.2%	-1.5%	0.0%	3.06	3.78	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL BOS Blue	14	14	50	208	36	22	0	100%	3.6	17.3%	10.6%	6.7%	0.0%	3.06	2.98	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Blue	12	11	39	177	34	22	0	92%	3.2	13.1%	15.5%	-2.5%	0.0%	5.08	3.96	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL BOS Blue	12	11	39	177	34	22	0	92%	3.2	19.2%	12.4%	6.8%	0.0%	5.08	3.05	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	15	0	23	99	17	14	0	0%	1.5	11.7%	17.7%	-6.0%	0.0%	3.57	4.35	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	15	0	23	99	17	14	0	0%	1.5	11.7%	17.7%	-6.0%	0.0%	3.57	4.35	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Red	15	0	23	99	17	14	0	0%	1.5	17.2%	14.1%	3.0%	0.0%	3.57	3.45	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	22	MLB	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.7%	11.4%	11.3%	3.0%	4.65	4.65	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	BOS	4	4	20	84	20	9	2	100%	5.0	23.5%	10.4%	13.1%	2.9%	4.50	4.43	+0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	BOS	2	2	10	42	10	4	1	100%	5.0	23.5%	10.4%	13.1%	2.9%	4.50	4.43	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	10	42	10	4	1	100%	4.9	23.5%	10.4%	13.1%	2.9%	4.50	4.05	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	37	200	844	203	81	20	100%	5.3	23.5%	10.4%	13.1%	2.9%	4.50	4.05	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		41	25	112	484	59	72	0	61%	2.7	12.2%	15.0%	-2.8%	0.0%	3.87	3.97	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		73	45	200	867	106	130	0	61%	2.7	12.2%	15.0%	-2.8%	0.0%	3.87	3.97	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jean Carlos Reyes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.65	22.7%	11.4%	3.0%	—	4.43	23.5%	13.1%	20	-0.22	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	83
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	82
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	82
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.9%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	81
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	81
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	79
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.6%	11.6%	249	-0.34	4.54	318	78
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	78
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	76
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	76
Jared Ruxer R 2015 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	17.3%	10.6%	2.1%	.333	4.29	14.9%	7.5%	240	+0.13	3.39	270	76
Clarke Schmidt R 2018 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	23.1%	8.5%	2.4%	.324	3.26	21.3%	13.1%	108	-0.27	2.77	537	76
Caleb Sampen R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	22	SP	3.46	21.7%	8.3%	2.1%	.358	3.49	15.2%	6.8%	139	+0.03	3.09	213	76
Daniel Corcino R 2014 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	18.8%	12.5%	2.3%	.208	4.14	19.6%	10.0%	76	-0.23	3.84	318	76
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	76
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	76
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	76
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	75
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	75
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	75