Ryan Johnson

P Los Angeles Angels

Age 24 RHP 6'6" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.6 · 2029

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	26	12	72	3.00	2.70	27.8%	4.8%	1.6	K 22.7% · BB 5.3% · FIP 3.31
2026	23	MIX4 levels	28	25	129	4.48	4.39	21.1%	8.4%	1.5	K 19.3% · BB 8.8% · FIP 4.60
2027PROJ	24	MLBLAA	13	13	72	4.67	4.74	20.2%	7.8%	0.5
2028PROJ93% MLB	25	MLBLAA	12	12	73	4.70	4.69	20.7%	7.5%	0.6
2029PROJ95% MLB	26	MLBLAA	12	12	74	4.68	4.66	20.9%	7.5%	0.7

Last 2 seasons WAR 3.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.151First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$2M2030Arb-2$2M2031Arb-3$3M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo54

xwOBA vs29

K%22

Form3.58 ERA (proj 4.67) · K 20.4% (proj 20.2%) · BB 8.5% (proj 7.8%) · last 60d · 33 IP through Oct 27

CompsMichael Darrell-Hicks (age 25) · Wil Jensen (age 24) · James McArthur (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 106

ERA4.67

FIP4.74

K%20.2%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%12.4%

Proj IP78

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$14M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5494.8

Whiff%

p3523.1%

p2218.1%

xwOBA vs

p290.336

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.151 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2030	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$3M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$10M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	12	72	291	81	14	7	46%	2.8	22.7%	5.3%	17.4%	2.6%	3.00	3.31	+1.1
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	12	72	291	81	14	7	46%	2.8	22.7%	5.3%	17.4%	2.6%	3.00	3.31	+1.1
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	12	72	291	81	14	7	46%	2.8	27.8%	4.8%	23.0%	2.4%	3.00	2.70	+1.6
2026	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	28	25	129	550	116	46	20	89%	4.6	19.3%	8.8%	10.5%	3.7%	4.48	4.60	+1.2
2026	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	28	25	129	550	116	46	20	89%	4.6	19.3%	8.8%	10.5%	3.7%	4.48	4.60	+1.2
2026	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	28	25	129	550	116	46	20	89%	4.6	21.1%	8.4%	12.7%	3.6%	4.48	4.39	+1.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			36	19	115	509	95	46	22	53%	3.2	18.7%	9.0%	9.6%	4.3%	5.34	5.14	+0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	LAA	13	13	72	304	61	24	11	100%	5.5	20.2%	7.8%	12.4%	3.6%	4.67	4.74	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	LAA	13	13	78	328	68	25	12	100%	6.0	20.7%	7.5%	13.2%	3.6%	4.66	4.65	+0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	LAA	13	13	78	328	69	25	12	100%	6.0	20.9%	7.5%	13.5%	3.6%	4.64	4.62	+0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	67	282	59	21	10	100%	6.1	20.9%	7.6%	13.4%	3.6%	4.65	4.66	+0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	LAA	10	10	62	263	55	20	10	100%	6.2	20.8%	7.7%	13.1%	3.7%	4.71	4.75	+0.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	LAA	9	9	53	223	45	18	9	100%	5.9	20.2%	7.9%	12.3%	3.9%	4.83	4.91	+0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	LAA	7	7	42	177	35	15	7	100%	6.0	19.5%	8.2%	11.3%	4.1%	5.00	5.11	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	73	308	64	23	11	100%	6.1	20.7%	7.5%	13.2%	3.7%	4.70	4.69	+0.6
2029	26	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	74	312	65	23	11	100%	6.2	20.9%	7.5%	13.5%	3.7%	4.68	4.66	+0.7
2030	27	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	63	266	56	20	10	100%	6.3	20.9%	7.6%	13.4%	3.7%	4.69	4.70	+0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	59	249	52	19	9	100%	5.9	20.8%	7.7%	13.1%	3.8%	4.75	4.79	+0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	LAA	8	8	50	211	43	17	8	100%	6.2	20.2%	7.9%	12.3%	4.0%	4.87	4.95	+0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	LAA	7	7	40	169	33	14	7	100%	5.7	19.5%	8.2%	11.3%	4.2%	5.04	5.15	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		96	79	474	2025	408	163	79	82%	4.9	20.1%	8.0%	12.1%	3.9%	4.90	4.57	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	33	200	855	172	69	33	82%	4.9	20.1%	8.0%	12.1%	3.9%	4.90	4.57	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		54	37	201	841	172	64	28	69%	3.7	20.5%	7.6%	12.9%	3.3%	3.95	4.15	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	37	200	838	172	64	28	69%	3.7	20.5%	7.6%	12.9%	3.3%	3.95	4.15	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 20 IPFIP 1.54 → 2.27 (+0.72)K% 32.9% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.89%	—	×0.810	26.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.95%	—	×1.100	4.34%
HR / BF /BF	1.32%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.58%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.54 → 2.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAASalt Lake Bees · 5 IPFIP 3.70 → 4.25 (+0.54)K% 23.8% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.81%	—	×0.860	20.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×0.900	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.76%	÷1.000	×1.100	5.24%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.70 → 4.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 57 IPFIP 1.92 → 2.78 (+0.85)K% 29.7% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.68%	—	×0.770	22.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.57%	—	×1.150	5.25%
HR / BF /BF	1.37%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.71%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.92 → 2.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Johnson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	20.2%	7.8%	3.6%	—	4.64	20.9%	13.3%	222	-0.10	—	—	—
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.40	21.6%	13.7%	145	-0.31	1.85	254	81
Wil Jensen R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	24	SP-	4.69	20.2%	8.6%	4.0%	.261	4.20	21.4%	11.1%	173	-0.49	3.48	368	80
James McArthur R 2021 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP-	3.81	19.7%	7.9%	2.5%	.310	4.12	21.9%	14.0%	194	+0.31	3.48	352	80
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	80
Edison Frias R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP-	4.90	18.1%	7.5%	4.3%	.318	4.19	13.7%	3.5%	166	-0.71	4.14	279	79
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	79
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	79
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	79
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	78
Carson Seymour R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	24	SP-	3.96	19.8%	10.2%	2.3%	.292	4.51	19.4%	10.1%	355	+0.55	3.39	579	78
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	78
Luke Weaver R 2018 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP	4.35	19.9%	8.5%	3.4%	.314	3.85	24.1%	18.0%	182	-0.50	2.54	1,043	78
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	78
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	78
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	78
Brad Peacock R 2013 · 4.92 FIP	25	SP-	4.92	21.1%	10.1%	4.2%	.267	4.33	20.6%	10.7%	280	-0.59	2.97	748	77
Martin Agosta R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	21.6%	6.2%	4.1%	.340	4.58	12.3%	5.7%	40	+0.28	4.30	146	77
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	77
John Gant R 2017 · 4.00 FIP	24	SP-	4.00	19.2%	6.7%	3.0%	.317	3.81	20.6%	9.7%	244	-0.19	2.06	802	77
Jack Wenninger R 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	20.9%	9.3%	3.3%	.309	4.29	21.1%	11.1%	251	-0.04	3.90	366	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	71	20.2%	8.1%	1.48	4.84
Esteban Yan ('06)	3.5	77	17.9%	8.7%	1.36	5.14
Brandon Maurer ('18)	1.9	62	19.9%	7.8%	1.14	5.36
Adam Morgan ('21)	1.8	62	20.8%	7.2%	1.58	4.80
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Keith Atherton ('83-'89, 2 WAR*)	2.8	81	19.9%*	8.7%*	1.39*	4.24*
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*