Ryan Johnson
P
Los Angeles Angels
+0.4
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 23
RHP
6'6" / 215 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.7 · 2028
ERA5.49
FIP4.25
xFIP8.44
SIERA7.49
K%23.0%
BB%7.3%
K-BB%15.7%
IP72
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2028
K†5555
FB Velo
p5094.5
Whiff%
p6527.7%
K%
p5022.2%
xwOBA vs
p700.293
SI (16%)
SL (15%)
FB (16%)
CT-2.3 (35%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 26 | 12 | 72 | 291 | 81 | 14 | 7 | 22.7% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 3.00 | 3.36 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 1 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 16.20 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | LAA | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 32 | 10 | 4 | 23.0% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 5.49 | 4.25 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 36 | 159 | 34 | 14 | 5 | 21.2% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 6.48 | 3.86 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | LAA | 13 | 13 | 74 | 312 | 70 | 25 | 10 | 22.4% | 7.9% | 3.2% | 4.90 | 4.37 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | LAA | 14 | 14 | 75 | 315 | 72 | 25 | 10 | 22.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.31 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | LAA | 14 | 14 | 75 | 315 | 73 | 25 | 10 | 23.1% | 7.9% | 3.2% | 4.39 | 4.29 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 13 | 13 | 74 | 313 | 72 | 25 | 10 | 23.1% | 7.9% | 3.2% | 4.33 | 4.30 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | LAA | 13 | 13 | 73 | 308 | 71 | 25 | 10 | 23.1% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 4.33 | 4.32 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 13 | 13 | 71 | 301 | 68 | 24 | 10 | 22.6% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 4.37 | 4.40 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | LAA | 13 | 13 | 69 | 293 | 65 | 24 | 10 | 22.1% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 4.44 | 4.49 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | LAA | 12 | 12 | 67 | 282 | 61 | 23 | 10 | 21.5% | 8.3% | 3.4% | 4.53 | 4.59 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | LAA | 12 | 12 | 64 | 271 | 56 | 23 | 9 | 20.8% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 4.64 | 4.71 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | LAA | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 52 | 22 | 9 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 4.76 | 4.84 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | LAA | 58 | — | 58 | 246 | 48 | 22 | 9 | 19.5% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 4.89 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | LAA | 55 | — | 55 | 232 | 43 | 21 | 9 | 18.7% | 9.0% | 3.8% | 5.03 | 5.13 | -0.1 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | LAA | 51 | — | 51 | 217 | 39 | 20 | 8 | 18.0% | 9.3% | 3.9% | 5.19 | 5.29 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 27 | 13 | 75 | 312 | 68 | 20 | 9 | 21.8% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 3.58 | 3.62 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 72 | 35 | 200 | 828 | 181 | 53 | 24 | 21.8% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 3.58 | 3.62 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Johnson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.25 | 23.0% | 7.3% | 3.2% | — | 4.32 | 22.8% | 14.9% | 223 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Eric Orze R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.46 | 26.9% | 7.6% | 3.0% | .284 | 4.34 | 27.8% | 15.6% | 170 | +0.88 | 3.46 | 290 | 85 |
| Brendan Beck R 2027 · 3.19 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.19 | 22.5% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .289 | 4.15 | 20.6% | 13.7% | 152 | +0.96 | 3.19 | 183 | 84 |
| Nick Mears R 2025 · 3.49 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.49 | 26.9% | 8.4% | 2.9% | .279 | 4.53 | 23.3% | 9.9% | 67 | +1.04 | 3.06 | 254 | 84 |
| Dylan DeLucia R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.83 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .241 | 5.00 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 108 | +1.17 | 3.83 | 144 | 83 |
| Clayton McGinness R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.85 | 19.4% | 4.5% | 3.3% | .291 | 4.63 | 18.7% | 7.8% | 84 | +0.78 | 3.85 | 106 | 83 |
| Clark Beeker R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.04 | 20.0% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .270 | 4.34 | 11.6% | 6.4% | 244 | +0.30 | 4.04 | 287 | 83 |
| Nick Kingham R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.57 | 20.7% | 5.4% | 2.8% | .330 | 3.90 | 18.0% | 12.1% | 276 | +0.33 | 2.31 | 363 | 83 |
| Connor Schultz R 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.89 | 19.7% | 5.3% | 3.2% | .283 | 3.52 | 18.5% | 12.1% | 89 | -0.37 | 3.52 | 136 | 82 |
| Devon Roedahl R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.94 | 19.7% | 6.7% | 3.0% | .305 | 4.67 | 16.5% | 9.2% | 100 | +0.73 | 3.94 | 122 | 82 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2028 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.90 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .299 | 5.28 | 22.4% | 6.5% | 121 | +1.38 | 3.90 | 158 | 82 |
| John Fasola R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.82 | 21.5% | 5.7% | 3.3% | .294 | 2.97 | 19.8% | 11.6% | 58 | -0.85 | 2.72 | 124 | 82 |
| Reilly Hovis R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.33 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 3.7% | .250 | 4.37 | 19.8% | 6.4% | 50 | +0.04 | 4.33 | 130 | 82 |
| Casey Legumina R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.06 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .260 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.30 | 4.01 | 283 | 82 |
| Zack Weiss R 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.28 | 27.1% | 7.0% | 2.9% | .299 | 4.49 | 22.5% | 8.0% | 39 | +1.21 | 3.13 | 368 | 82 |
| Ocean Gabonia R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.72 | 19.7% | 6.8% | 2.6% | .316 | 2.79 | 18.4% | 8.6% | 41 | -0.93 | 2.79 | 144 | 81 |
| Nick Robertson R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.76 | 20.9% | 7.7% | 2.6% | .314 | 4.07 | 24.1% | 14.4% | 170 | +0.31 | 3.43 | 281 | 81 |
| Kevin Coulter R 2025 · 3.27 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.27 | 21.0% | 7.4% | 1.8% | .287 | 4.54 | 16.1% | 7.6% | 92 | +1.27 | 3.27 | 128 | 81 |
| Justin Sterner R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.81 | 23.9% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .279 | 4.63 | 26.6% | 17.2% | 142 | -0.18 | 3.97 | 252 | 80 |
| Breckin Williams R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.63 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 2.8% | .282 | 2.78 | 23.4% | 15.8% | 48 | -0.85 | 2.77 | 107 | 80 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2028 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 3.1% | .340 | 4.39 | 22.5% | 13.6% | 185 | +0.65 | 3.74 | 223 | 80 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 0.250 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.6 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.7M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $4M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $6M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $11M | $16M | +$5M | ||