Ryan Johnson — OGILVIE

Ryan Johnson P Los Angeles Angels

Age 23 RHP 6'6" / 215 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION113 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.18

FIP4.15

K%20.3%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%13.0%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 121 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1992.3

Whiff%

p3222.8%

p1717.4%

xwOBA vs

p200.347

SI (19%)

SL (22%)

FB (19%)

CT-2.3 (38%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	12	72	291	81	14	7	46%	2.8	22.7%	5.3%	17.4%	2.6%	3.00	3.31	+1.1
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	12	72	291	81	14	7	46%	2.8	22.7%	5.3%	17.4%	2.6%	3.00	3.31	+1.1
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	12	72	291	81	14	7	46%	2.8	27.8%	4.8%	23.0%	2.4%	3.00	2.70	+1.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			33	16	99	435	79	43	22	48%	3.0	18.2%	9.9%	8.3%	5.1%	5.45	5.70	-1.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	25	22	113	476	100	43	20	88%	4.5	19.0%	9.6%	9.3%	4.3%	4.46	5.08	-0.2
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	25	22	113	476	100	43	20	88%	4.5	19.0%	9.6%	9.3%	4.3%	4.46	5.08	-0.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	LAA	1	1	3	16	7	1	0	100%	3.3	43.8%	6.2%	37.5%	0.0%	0.00	0.20	—
2026	23	AA RAW	LAA	4	4	20	76	25	3	1	100%	5.1	32.9%	3.9%	28.9%	1.3%	2.21	1.54	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	LAA	1	1	5	21	5	0	1	100%	5.0	23.8%	0.0%	23.8%	4.8%	5.40	3.70	—
2026	23	MLB RAW	LAA	19	16	84	363	63	39	18	84%	4.4	17.4%	10.7%	6.6%	5.0%	5.12	5.72	-0.8
SO FAR	23	MLB RAW	LAA	19	16	84	363	63	39	18	84%	4.4	17.4%	10.7%	6.6%	5.0%	5.12	5.72	-0.8
ROS	23	MLB MLE	LAA	2	2	8	35	7	3	1	100%	4.2	20.3%	7.3%	13.0%	3.4%	4.18	4.15	+0.1
ROS	23	MLB CTX	LAA	1	1	8	34	7	2	1	100%	8.0	20.3%	7.3%	13.0%	3.4%	4.18	4.15	+0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	LAA	—	—	121	511	107	46	21	—	—	21.0%	8.9%	12.0%	4.1%	4.44	5.01	-0.2
FULL	23	MLB A+C	LAA	—	—	93	391	107	46	21	—	—	27.4%	11.6%	15.7%	5.4%	5.82	5.23	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	LAA	23	23	130	547	113	41	21	100%	5.6	20.8%	7.5%	13.3%	3.8%	4.83	4.77	+0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	LAA	24	24	143	604	128	44	23	100%	6.0	21.2%	7.3%	14.0%	3.7%	4.71	4.66	+0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	LAA	25	25	150	634	136	46	23	100%	6.0	21.5%	7.2%	14.2%	3.7%	4.64	4.61	+0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	LAA	25	25	152	641	138	47	24	100%	6.1	21.5%	7.3%	14.2%	3.7%	4.64	4.64	+0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	LAA	25	25	152	641	137	48	25	100%	6.1	21.4%	7.5%	13.9%	3.8%	4.69	4.73	+0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	LAA	24	24	145	612	127	47	24	100%	6.0	20.8%	7.7%	13.1%	4.0%	4.81	4.89	+0.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	LAA	23	23	136	575	116	46	24	100%	5.9	20.1%	8.0%	12.1%	4.2%	4.98	5.09	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	LAA	22	22	123	519	108	39	20	100%	5.6	20.8%	7.5%	13.3%	3.8%	4.83	4.77	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	LAA	23	23	136	574	122	42	21	100%	5.9	21.2%	7.3%	14.0%	3.7%	4.71	4.66	+0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	LAA	24	24	143	604	130	44	22	100%	6.0	21.5%	7.2%	14.2%	3.7%	4.64	4.61	+0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	LAA	24	24	144	608	131	45	23	100%	6.0	21.5%	7.3%	14.2%	3.7%	4.64	4.64	+0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	LAA	24	24	144	608	130	46	23	100%	6.0	21.4%	7.5%	13.9%	3.8%	4.69	4.73	+0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	LAA	23	23	138	583	121	45	23	100%	6.0	20.8%	7.7%	13.1%	4.0%	4.81	4.89	+0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	LAA	22	22	129	545	109	44	23	100%	5.9	20.1%	8.0%	12.1%	4.2%	4.98	5.09	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		196	179	1065	4512	937	349	179	91%	5.4	20.8%	7.7%	13.0%	4.0%	4.81	4.50	+5.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	34	200	848	176	66	34	91%	5.4	20.8%	7.7%	13.0%	4.0%	4.81	4.50	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		51	34	185	767	156	61	28	67%	3.6	20.4%	8.0%	12.4%	3.7%	3.89	4.40	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	37	200	829	169	66	30	67%	3.6	20.4%	8.0%	12.4%	3.7%	3.89	4.40	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Johnson (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.93	22.8%	4.9%	3.2%	—	4.68	21.2%	13.9%	423	+0.75	—	—	—
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	84
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	80
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	78
Clay Chandler R 2017 · 4.97 FIP	23	SP-	4.97	18.3%	6.0%	4.8%	.319	4.89	14.8%	8.8%	293	-0.08	4.49	328	78
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	77
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	77
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	75
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	75
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	74
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	74
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	74
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	74
Travis Herrin R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP-	4.40	21.1%	7.3%	3.9%	.315	4.92	17.6%	5.2%	106	+0.52	4.40	236	73
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	73
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	73
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	73
Jordan Geber R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	23	SP-	5.03	15.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.341	4.39	15.4%	7.7%	176	-0.64	4.26	241	73
Noah Gotsis R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SP-	3.48	16.5%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	4.25	15.9%	8.6%	90	+0.77	3.48	138	72
Rico Garcia R 2017 · 3.37 FIP	23	SP-	3.37	18.8%	7.0%	1.8%	.316	4.07	19.8%	11.5%	296	+0.70	3.37	587	72
Matthew DeRosier R 2017 · 3.89 FIP	23	SP-	3.89	16.6%	6.6%	2.5%	.294	5.67	15.1%	6.0%	57	+1.78	2.72	200	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.3	133	21.1%	7.4%	1.48	4.71
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45