Jacob Kmatz — OGILVIE

Jacob Kmatz P Tulsa Drillers

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION72 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 120

ERA5.45

FIP5.45

K%11.1%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%1.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5050

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	23	19	110	473	80	35	12	83%	4.8	12.5%	8.7%	3.8%	2.8%	5.56	4.71	—
2025	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	23	19	110	473	80	35	12	83%	4.8	12.5%	8.7%	3.8%	2.8%	5.56	4.71	—
2025	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	23	19	110	473	80	35	12	83%	4.8	16.9%	7.4%	9.5%	2.5%	5.56	4.02	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	46	0	72	282	99	12	12	0%	1.6	27.8%	4.8%	23.0%	5.2%	2.76	4.20	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	46	0	72	282	99	12	12	0%	1.6	27.8%	4.8%	23.0%	5.2%	2.76	4.20	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	LAD	18	0	28	111	45	6	4	0%	1.6	40.5%	5.4%	35.1%	3.6%	2.22	2.34	—
2026	23	AA RAW	LAD	28	0	43	171	54	6	8	0%	1.5	31.6%	3.5%	28.1%	4.7%	3.12	3.45	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	LAD	6	0	6	27	3	3	1	0%	1.1	11.1%	10.1%	1.0%	3.0%	5.45	5.45	-0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	LAD	—	—	78	309	102	15	13	—	—	33.0%	4.8%	28.3%	4.1%	2.98	4.30	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	LAD	97	0	102	429	59	41	13	0%	1.0	13.8%	9.6%	4.2%	2.9%	5.22	5.15	-0.7
2028	25	MLB MLE	LAD	98	0	103	434	67	40	13	0%	1.0	15.4%	9.3%	6.1%	2.9%	5.04	4.97	-0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	LAD	98	0	103	434	71	40	13	0%	1.0	16.3%	9.2%	7.1%	2.9%	4.93	4.88	-0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	LAD	96	0	101	428	70	40	13	0%	1.1	16.5%	9.2%	7.2%	3.0%	4.90	4.90	-0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	LAD	94	0	98	415	68	39	13	0%	1.0	16.4%	9.4%	7.0%	3.1%	4.95	4.98	-0.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	LAD	89	0	94	396	64	38	13	0%	1.1	16.1%	9.6%	6.5%	3.2%	5.05	5.11	-0.6
2033	30	MLB MLE	LAD	84	0	88	373	59	37	13	0%	1.1	15.8%	9.9%	5.8%	3.4%	5.20	5.29	-0.7
2027	24	MLB CTX	LAD	43	0	45	190	26	18	6	0%	1.0	13.8%	9.6%	4.2%	2.9%	5.22	5.15	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	LAD	66	0	69	291	45	27	9	0%	1.0	15.4%	9.3%	6.1%	2.9%	5.04	4.97	-0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	LAD	78	0	82	346	57	32	10	0%	1.1	16.3%	9.2%	7.1%	2.9%	4.93	4.88	-0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	LAD	83	0	87	367	60	34	11	0%	1.0	16.5%	9.2%	7.2%	3.0%	4.90	4.90	-0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	LAD	84	0	88	372	61	35	11	0%	1.0	16.4%	9.4%	7.0%	3.1%	4.95	4.98	-0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	LAD	81	0	85	359	58	35	12	0%	1.0	16.1%	9.6%	6.5%	3.2%	5.05	5.11	-0.5
2033	30	MLB CTX	LAD	77	0	81	342	54	34	12	0%	1.1	15.8%	9.9%	5.8%	3.4%	5.20	5.29	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		511	0	536	2264	360	214	70	0%	1.0	15.9%	9.5%	6.4%	3.1%	5.03	4.65	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	134	80	26	0%	1.1	15.9%	9.5%	6.4%	3.1%	5.03	4.65	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		69	19	182	755	138	55	28	28%	2.6	18.2%	7.3%	11.0%	3.7%	4.46	4.52	-3.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	21	200	831	151	60	31	28%	2.6	18.2%	7.3%	11.0%	3.7%	4.46	4.52	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Kmatz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.45	11.1%	10.1%	3.0%	—	5.00	15.2%	5.8%	307	-0.45	—	—	—
Kevin Johnson R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	11.0%	8.5%	2.6%	.302	5.52	9.9%	-2.0%	26	+0.83	4.69	106	92
Kelvis Valerio R 2015 · 4.53 FIP	23	SU	4.53	12.9%	10.3%	2.2%	.312	4.18	11.4%	4.0%	190	-0.35	4.14	266	90
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	86
Aaron Northcraft R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	25	SW	4.37	13.6%	10.2%	2.1%	.286	4.19	16.1%	7.8%	91	-0.18	3.32	252	86
Hunter Hayes R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	22	SW	4.53	13.3%	9.7%	2.4%	.307	4.49	16.5%	4.0%	155	-0.04	3.34	216	85
Rogelio Martinez R 2015 · 5.25 FIP	23	SU	5.25	10.0%	9.7%	3.2%	.304	5.20	11.6%	4.4%	73	-0.05	5.20	152	84
Devin Burke R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	24	SU	4.27	11.7%	7.0%	2.3%	.275	4.20	13.7%	8.8%	87	-0.07	4.20	149	84
Mark Peterson R 2015 · 4.89 FIP	24	SU	4.89	11.5%	8.5%	3.1%	.277	4.71	15.9%	5.6%	112	-0.18	4.65	185	84
Juan Perez R 2017 · 4.52 FIP	22	SW	4.52	10.8%	10.8%	1.8%	.230	—	—	—	—	—	4.52	113	83
Scott Burke R 2018 · 4.55 FIP	24	SW	4.55	14.2%	7.7%	3.0%	.316	5.27	14.9%	6.7%	61	+0.72	4.55	119	83
Raymar Navarro R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	13.1%	11.7%	1.5%	.332	4.29	11.8%	1.0%	41	-0.01	4.29	108	82
Carlos Felix R 2019 · 4.92 FIP	23	SW	4.92	8.7%	6.3%	3.2%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	4.92	121	82
Simon Mercedes R 2015 · 4.86 FIP	23	SU	4.86	14.3%	11.7%	2.7%	.309	4.94	16.4%	3.9%	60	+0.08	4.86	139	82
Matt Eckelman R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	23	SU	4.73	15.0%	9.9%	3.0%	.304	4.23	17.4%	5.7%	97	-0.50	4.07	386	82
Daniel Concepcion R 2016 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	13.0%	10.6%	4.6%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	110	82
Colin Welmon R 2016 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	13.8%	9.6%	4.6%	.339	5.33	12.0%	5.0%	73	-0.32	5.33	142	82
Raul Carrillo R 2015 · 5.26 FIP	23	SW	5.26	11.1%	11.2%	3.1%	.364	4.56	10.8%	1.4%	169	-0.70	4.40	348	82
Ignacio Marrujo R 2016 · 5.73 FIP	23	SW	5.73	8.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.284	6.48	9.5%	0.3%	40	+0.75	4.32	150	81
Alexis Rivero R 2018 · 4.94 FIP	23	SU	4.94	13.2%	11.6%	2.7%	.261	6.43	12.9%	3.3%	24	+1.49	3.86	280	81
Jake McCasland R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	23	SU	4.78	14.2%	9.8%	3.0%	.348	3.80	15.8%	8.2%	317	-0.98	3.07	367	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	96	15.3%	9.5%	1.18	5.08
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Ty Blach ('24)	2.5	84	12.8%	6.9%	1.23	5.56