Jacob Kmatz

P Tulsa Drillers

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1010ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	ATB	23	19	110	5.56	4.02	16.9%	7.4%	—	K 12.5% · BB 8.7% · FIP 4.71
2026	23	MIX2 levels	46	0	72	2.76	3.02	35.1%	4.3%	—	K 27.8% · BB 4.8% · FIP 4.20
2027PROJ	24	MLBLAD	2	0	2	4.14	4.14	25.0%	6.8%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBLAD	36	0	38	4.17	4.13	25.6%	6.7%	0.2
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBLAD	52	0	55	4.13	4.10	25.9%	6.8%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$0.2M2034Ext$5M+1

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsJoshua Loeschorn (age 23) · Nick Merkel (age 25) · Casey Cobb (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.14

FIP4.14

K%25.0%

BB%6.8%

K-BB%18.3%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Arb-1	$0.2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.1M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	23	19	110	473	80	35	12	83%	4.8	12.5%	8.7%	3.8%	2.8%	5.56	4.71	—
2025	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	23	19	110	473	80	35	12	83%	4.8	12.5%	8.7%	3.8%	2.8%	5.56	4.71	—
2025	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	23	19	110	473	80	35	12	83%	4.8	16.9%	7.4%	9.5%	2.5%	5.56	4.02	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	72	282	99	12	12	0%	1.6	27.8%	4.8%	23.0%	5.2%	2.76	4.20	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	72	282	99	12	12	0%	1.6	27.8%	4.8%	23.0%	5.2%	2.76	4.20	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	72	282	99	12	12	0%	1.6	35.1%	4.3%	30.9%	4.3%	2.76	3.02	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	LAD	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	25.0%	6.8%	18.3%	3.5%	4.14	4.14	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	LAD	82	0	86	365	94	25	13	0%	1.1	25.6%	6.7%	18.9%	3.4%	4.09	4.05	+0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	LAD	78	0	82	346	90	23	12	0%	1.1	25.9%	6.8%	19.1%	3.4%	4.05	4.02	+0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	LAD	75	0	78	331	85	23	11	0%	1.0	25.7%	6.9%	18.8%	3.4%	4.06	4.07	+0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	LAD	71	0	74	315	80	22	11	0%	1.0	25.4%	7.0%	18.4%	3.5%	4.12	4.16	+0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	LAD	66	0	69	293	74	21	11	0%	1.1	25.2%	7.3%	17.9%	3.7%	4.22	4.29	+0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	LAD	60	0	63	265	66	20	10	0%	1.0	24.9%	7.6%	17.3%	3.9%	4.37	4.47	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	LAD	36	0	38	160	41	11	6	0%	1.1	25.6%	6.7%	18.9%	3.6%	4.17	4.13	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	LAD	52	0	55	232	60	16	8	0%	1.1	25.9%	6.8%	19.1%	3.5%	4.13	4.10	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	LAD	58	0	61	258	66	18	9	0%	1.1	25.7%	6.9%	18.8%	3.6%	4.14	4.15	+0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	LAD	60	0	63	266	68	19	10	0%	1.1	25.4%	7.0%	18.4%	3.7%	4.20	4.24	+0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	LAD	58	0	61	258	65	19	10	0%	1.1	25.2%	7.3%	17.9%	3.8%	4.31	4.38	+0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	LAD	53	0	56	236	59	18	10	0%	1.1	24.9%	7.6%	17.3%	4.0%	4.46	4.56	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		318	0	334	1409	358	99	52	0%	1.0	25.4%	7.1%	18.4%	3.7%	4.24	3.89	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	215	59	31	0%	1.1	25.4%	7.1%	18.4%	3.7%	4.24	3.89	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		69	19	182	755	138	55	28	28%	2.6	18.2%	7.3%	11.0%	3.7%	4.46	4.52	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	21	200	831	151	60	31	28%	2.6	18.2%	7.3%	11.0%	3.7%	4.46	4.52	+0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AATulsa Drillers · 43 IPFIP 3.45 → 4.51 (+1.06)K% 31.6% → 25.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.58%	—	×0.810	25.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.51%	—	×1.100	3.86%
HR / BF /BF	4.68%	÷1.000	×1.200	5.61%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.45 → 4.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 28 IPFIP 2.34 → 3.72 (+1.38)K% 40.5% → 31.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.54%	—	×0.770	31.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.41%	—	×1.150	6.22%
HR / BF /BF	3.60%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.50%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.34 → 3.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ACharleston RiverDogs · 110 IPFIP 4.00 → 4.71 (+0.71)K% 16.9% → 12.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.91%	—	×0.740	12.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.40%	—	×1.180	8.73%
HR / BF /BF	2.54%	÷1.159	×1.300	2.85%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 132).

Result: FIP 4.00 → 4.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Kmatz (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.5%	—	4.05	25.7%	19.0%	247	-0.09	—	—	—
Joshua Loeschorn R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	23	SU	3.86	24.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.272	4.43	17.1%	8.4%	83	+0.57	3.08	151	88
Nick Merkel R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	25	SU	3.99	22.8%	7.1%	3.5%	.284	3.44	20.7%	10.3%	129	-0.55	3.15	205	84
Casey Cobb R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SU	3.48	21.8%	6.2%	2.6%	.261	5.59	17.2%	8.3%	118	+2.11	3.48	191	83
Matt Jachec R 2024 · 3.29 FIP	23	SU	3.29	25.8%	6.8%	2.7%	.347	3.69	21.8%	12.8%	50	+0.40	3.29	122	83
Bear Bellomy R 2021 · 4.57 FIP	24	SU	4.57	23.1%	6.9%	4.6%	.274	5.69	15.0%	8.2%	72	+1.12	4.57	139	82
Trent Harris R 2024 · 3.45 FIP	25	SU	3.45	26.9%	9.5%	2.6%	.258	3.36	24.7%	16.7%	121	-0.09	3.06	198	80
Travis Hissong R 2016 · 3.01 FIP	25	SU	3.01	23.6%	4.9%	2.3%	.256	4.17	20.3%	6.8%	50	+1.16	3.01	122	79
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	79
David Phelps R 2012 · 3.98 FIP	25	SW	3.98	23.2%	8.7%	3.2%	.250	3.86	18.3%	10.1%	312	-0.12	2.50	672	79
Jake Smith R 2015 · 3.11 FIP	25	SU	3.11	28.1%	7.5%	2.6%	.243	4.69	19.3%	-1.7%	26	+1.58	3.11	110	78
Breckin Williams R 2018 · 3.65 FIP	24	SU	3.65	22.6%	7.3%	2.8%	.282	2.78	23.4%	15.8%	48	-0.87	2.76	107	78
Miguel Sánchez R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	24	SU	3.46	29.4%	8.1%	3.3%	.295	4.02	20.5%	11.2%	111	+0.56	2.54	309	78
Noah Denoyer R 2022 · 3.26 FIP	24	SW	3.26	28.2%	7.0%	3.0%	.272	5.24	22.2%	8.2%	51	+1.98	3.26	181	78
Josh Martin R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	25	SU	3.16	24.1%	7.4%	2.1%	.257	2.96	20.7%	13.6%	124	-0.20	2.41	225	78
Kaleb Fontenot R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	24	SU	4.48	20.7%	8.6%	3.7%	.264	3.71	14.7%	5.2%	69	-0.77	3.71	155	77
Mason Englert R 2024 · 4.05 FIP	24	SU	4.05	25.7%	6.3%	4.2%	.294	3.95	22.4%	18.1%	189	-0.10	2.71	519	77
Garrett McMillan R 2024 · 3.30 FIP	23	SU	3.30	21.2%	8.2%	1.7%	.324	3.53	18.9%	14.6%	48	+0.23	3.30	118	77
Nick Rumbelow R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	23	SU	3.28	22.6%	6.1%	2.4%	.295	3.54	24.8%	16.4%	64	+0.26	2.03	164	77
Matt Festa R 2017 · 3.65 FIP	24	SU	3.65	26.2%	6.7%	3.5%	.321	4.23	23.9%	15.1%	102	+0.58	2.57	481	77
Tyler Schoff R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	24	SU	3.69	25.2%	8.7%	3.0%	.315	4.26	16.1%	6.4%	75	+0.57	3.69	190	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	78	25.4%	7.0%	1.37	4.14
Mark Huismann ('83-'91, 1 WAR*)	1.5	74	23.8%*	6.5%*	1.30*	4.49*
Tyler Lyons ('20)	1.4	57	24.3%	7.6%	1.27	4.30
Joe Beckwith ('79-'86, 3 WAR*)	2.1	70	24.9%*	8.2%*	1.13*	3.96*
Tyler Duffey ('24)	2.4	61	23.1%	7.0%	1.24	4.57
Pete Ladd ('79-'86, 0 WAR*)	1.4	72	24.6%*	7.8%*	1.53*	4.42*
Matt Andriese ('24)	2.6	74	21.8%	6.7%	1.36	4.65