Jacob Kmatz
P
Bowling Green Hot Rods
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
A+
peak 0.2 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION44 act + 77 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141132vR 123
ERA5.44
FIP5.44
K%11.1%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%0.7%
ROS IP77
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 121 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 23 | 19 | 110 | 473 | 80 | 35 | 12 | 83% | 4.8 | 12.5% | 8.7% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 5.56 | 4.52 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 23 | 19 | 110 | 473 | 80 | 35 | 12 | 83% | 4.8 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 2.5% | 5.56 | 4.02 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 28 | 0 | 44 | 176 | 63 | 7 | 9 | 0% | 1.6 | 28.0% | 4.5% | 23.4% | 6.2% | 3.50 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | TB | 73 | 0 | 77 | 325 | 36 | 34 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 11.1% | 10.3% | 0.7% | 2.9% | 5.44 | 5.44 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | TB | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11.1% | 10.3% | 0.7% | 2.9% | 5.44 | 5.44 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | TB | — | — | 121 | 501 | 99 | 41 | 18 | — | — | 19.7% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | 4.74 | 5.19 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | TB | — | — | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 11.0% | 10.3% | 0.7% | 2.9% | 5.44 | 5.06 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TB | 75 | 0 | 79 | 333 | 46 | 33 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.9% | 10.0% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 5.22 | 5.15 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | TB | 76 | 0 | 80 | 337 | 53 | 33 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.6% | 9.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 5.05 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | TB | 76 | 0 | 80 | 337 | 56 | 33 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 4.94 | 4.90 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TB | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 20 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.9% | 10.0% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 5.22 | 5.15 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | TB | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 35 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.6% | 9.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 5.05 | 4.98 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | TB | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 44 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 4.94 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 144 | 0 | 151 | 636 | 99 | 62 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.6% | 9.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 5.04 | 4.60 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 131 | 82 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.6% | 9.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 5.04 | 4.60 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 51 | 19 | 154 | 649 | 108 | 49 | 23 | 37% | 3.0 | 16.7% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 4.98 | 4.58 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 66 | 25 | 200 | 845 | 141 | 64 | 30 | 37% | 3.0 | 16.7% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 4.98 | 4.58 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jacob Kmatz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.44 | 11.1% | 10.3% | 2.9% | — | 5.01 | 15.3% | 5.5% | 239 | -0.43 | — | — | — |
| Kevin Johnson R 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.59 | 11.0% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 5.48 | 9.9% | -2.0% | 26 | +0.89 | 4.59 | 106 | 89 |
| Chance Huff R 2026 · 5.78 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.78 | 11.8% | 11.4% | 4.1% | .312 | 5.14 | 15.7% | -0.0% | 151 | -0.64 | 4.35 | 235 | 89 |
| Cooper Adams R 2027 · 5.35 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.35 | 13.0% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .275 | 3.92 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 118 | -1.43 | 2.99 | 197 | 88 |
| Kelvis Valerio R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.80 | 12.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .312 | 4.08 | 11.4% | 4.0% | 190 | -0.72 | 4.03 | 266 | 86 |
| Zach Mort R 2025 · 5.14 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.14 | 10.7% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .240 | 5.35 | 17.0% | 8.8% | 176 | +0.21 | 5.14 | 237 | 85 |
| Kyle Miller R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.76 | 12.1% | 12.0% | 2.1% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 164 | 84 |
| Wirkin Estevez R 2027 · 5.36 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.36 | 10.7% | 13.4% | 2.7% | .316 | 4.42 | 12.3% | 3.5% | 179 | -0.94 | 4.24 | 238 | 84 |
| Kyle Smith R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.75 | 14.7% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .326 | 3.33 | 15.2% | 9.5% | 76 | -1.42 | 3.33 | 159 | 83 |
| Tyler Peyton R 2026 · 5.56 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.56 | 11.1% | 10.5% | 3.8% | .298 | 4.50 | 12.8% | 1.6% | 115 | -1.06 | 3.88 | 183 | 83 |
| Daniel Concepcion R 2025 · 5.38 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.38 | 13.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 110 | 83 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.50 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .286 | 4.16 | 16.1% | 7.8% | 91 | -0.34 | 3.28 | 252 | 83 |
| Félix Paulino R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.70 | 13.4% | 10.0% | 2.7% | .313 | 5.27 | 18.0% | 7.9% | 77 | +0.57 | 3.33 | 394 | 82 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.25 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.09 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 274 | -0.16 | 3.69 | 366 | 82 |
| Juan Perez R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.63 | 10.8% | 10.8% | 2.0% | .230 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.63 | 113 | 82 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2029 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 82 |
| Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.91 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 3.5% | .354 | 3.46 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 89 | -1.45 | 3.06 | 165 | 82 |
| Jason Hursh R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.30 | 12.0% | 9.1% | 1.9% | .363 | 3.33 | 16.2% | 5.3% | 193 | -0.97 | 3.30 | 338 | 82 |
| LJ Brewster R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.90 | 9.4% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 143 | 81 |
| Axel Rios R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.57 | 13.1% | 13.5% | 1.6% | .333 | 4.01 | 15.2% | 3.2% | 97 | -0.56 | 3.45 | 153 | 81 |
| Devin Burke R 2027 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.61 | 11.7% | 7.0% | 3.0% | .275 | 3.97 | 13.7% | 8.8% | 87 | -0.64 | 3.97 | 149 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 79 | 14.3% | 10.0% | 1.11 | 5.16 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne ('18) | 4 | 63 | 13.5% | 8.1% | 0.96 | 5.54 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |