Jacob Kmatz
P
Bowling Green Hot Rods
+0.4
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.6 · 2029
ERA4.62
FIP4.62
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.2%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%10.2%
IP110
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.6peak
2029
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 23 | 19 | 110 | 473 | 80 | 35 | 12 | 12.5% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 5.56 | 4.67 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 4 | 0 | 7 | 22 | 12 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | TB | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 89 | 42 | 14 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.62 | 4.62 | +0.8 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | TB | — | — | 117 | 486 | 101 | 42 | 14 | 20.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TB | 23 | 23 | 129 | 544 | 110 | 47 | 16 | 20.3% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.46 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | TB | 26 | 26 | 142 | 601 | 126 | 50 | 18 | 20.9% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.38 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | TB | 27 | 27 | 149 | 631 | 134 | 52 | 18 | 21.2% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.35 | +1.6 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | TB | 28 | 28 | 152 | 643 | 136 | 54 | 19 | 21.2% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +1.6 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | TB | 28 | 28 | 152 | 642 | 136 | 54 | 19 | 21.2% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.38 | +1.6 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | TB | 27 | 27 | 149 | 627 | 132 | 53 | 19 | 21.0% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.43 | +1.5 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | TB | 26 | 26 | 144 | 608 | 127 | 52 | 19 | 20.8% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.49 | +1.3 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | TB | 25 | 25 | 139 | 587 | 121 | 51 | 18 | 20.6% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.57 | +1.2 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | TB | 24 | 24 | 134 | 564 | 115 | 50 | 18 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.60 | 4.65 | +1.0 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | TB | 23 | 23 | 128 | 538 | 108 | 49 | 18 | 20.0% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 4.69 | 4.75 | +0.8 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | TB | 22 | 22 | 121 | 511 | 101 | 47 | 17 | 19.7% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 4.79 | 4.86 | +0.6 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | TB | 21 | 21 | 114 | 482 | 93 | 45 | 17 | 19.3% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 4.91 | 4.98 | +0.4 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | TB | 19 | 19 | 107 | 451 | 85 | 44 | 16 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 5.03 | 5.12 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 27 | 19 | 117 | 495 | 71 | 41 | 13 | 14.4% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 5.23 | 4.40 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 32 | 200 | 846 | 121 | 70 | 22 | 14.4% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 5.23 | 4.40 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jacob Kmatz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.62 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.39 | 20.8% | 12.4% | 421 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Riley Thompson R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .288 | 5.32 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.66 | 4.63 | 340 | 94 |
| Wil Crowe R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.65 | 15.0% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .278 | 4.65 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 266 | +0.00 | 4.00 | 518 | 93 |
| Angel Ventura R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 17.9% | 10.9% | 2.5% | .285 | 4.64 | 14.8% | 4.8% | 153 | +0.30 | 3.44 | 393 | 92 |
| Jeff Thompson R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.51 | 15.2% | 10.9% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.40 | 15.8% | 1.0% | 202 | -0.11 | 3.67 | 321 | 92 |
| Jordan Jackson R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.10 | 16.8% | 9.7% | 2.2% | .323 | 5.51 | 13.1% | 1.7% | 74 | +1.41 | 4.10 | 193 | 92 |
| Jackson Wentworth R 2025 · 4.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.95 | 16.7% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.95 | 124 | 92 |
| Jamison Hill R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.80 | 18.4% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .280 | 4.97 | 16.1% | 3.0% | 202 | +0.17 | 4.68 | 326 | 92 |
| Shelby Lackey R 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.45 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 2.9% | .323 | 3.96 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 65 | -0.49 | 2.91 | 175 | 92 |
| Jonathan Cannon R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.1% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .311 | 4.58 | 17.4% | 8.9% | 297 | -0.16 | 4.31 | 418 | 92 |
| Logan Martin R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.9% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .278 | 4.06 | 15.9% | 4.9% | 91 | +0.11 | 3.95 | 193 | 91 |
| Sam Highfill R 2027 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 91 |
| Blaine Knight R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.60 | 14.1% | 9.8% | 2.6% | .263 | 4.65 | 16.2% | 6.6% | 159 | +0.05 | 4.35 | 269 | 91 |
| Trent Baker R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.17 | 19.3% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .315 | 4.02 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 296 | -0.15 | 3.77 | 420 | 91 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.53 | 3.77 | 107 | 91 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2028 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.71 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.10 | 4.71 | 160 | 91 |
| Daniel Blair R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.09 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.39 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.30 | 4.09 | 171 | 90 |
| Derek True R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.91 | 18.5% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .333 | 4.96 | 16.6% | 4.6% | 60 | +0.05 | 4.91 | 157 | 90 |
| Houston Roth R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .263 | 4.85 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 228 | +0.23 | 3.77 | 350 | 90 |
| Erich Uelmen R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.63 | 15.3% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .299 | 4.56 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 159 | -0.07 | 3.48 | 383 | 90 |
| Tony Dibrell R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.0% | 11.7% | 2.5% | .302 | 5.67 | 20.5% | 6.2% | 58 | +1.05 | 4.17 | 347 | 90 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.6 | $14M | +$14M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.6 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.5 | $14M | +$13M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +1.3 | $13M | +$11M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +1.2 | $12M | +$10M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +1.0 | $10M | +$8M |
| Totals | $9M | $79M | +$70M | ||